Rookie QB discussion

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:49 am

Mjvb5 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:13 am
Menace2010 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:25 am Lawrence has at least repeatedly flashed his insane upside, I'm still all in on him. Mac Jones looks exactly like everyone expected, a capable game manager in by far the best situation for rookie year success. The other three... haven't shown much reason for optimism.

What's everyone doing in Superflex leagues? Holding, hoping, and praying (not overreacting to such a small sample size) or reacting before the bottom falls out?
When players look that kinda bad, if I have an opportunity to sell at 90%+ of my buy in price I take it and run. I know I know "they're rookies you need to give them time" the issue is for every allen there's 3 or 4 mitch trubiskys that we forget about. Fwiw I sold fields and a late 22 first for tanny and the likely 1.1 in 23. I got fields at 7 and sold him for basically that kinda value so I took it and ran. Rookies that look good I need to overpay as rookie production is the highest correlation to future success
Totally agree. I would have moved Lawrence if I had the 1.01 in SF when the hype was at it's peak. I think he's safe, but I still have issues with his accuracy, and a few other things, but I think he's got a decent floor, but for FF purposes, I don't see the ceiling of some of the other top guys. Jags franchise also doesn't help, but the Bears have never developed a franchise QB to my knowledge, and I don't think Fields is that good to begin with. He's in a mess, and I just don't think it's going to work out with him there. I like that trade for you.
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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Mjvb5 » Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:31 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:49 am
Mjvb5 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:13 am
Menace2010 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:25 am Lawrence has at least repeatedly flashed his insane upside, I'm still all in on him. Mac Jones looks exactly like everyone expected, a capable game manager in by far the best situation for rookie year success. The other three... haven't shown much reason for optimism.

What's everyone doing in Superflex leagues? Holding, hoping, and praying (not overreacting to such a small sample size) or reacting before the bottom falls out?
When players look that kinda bad, if I have an opportunity to sell at 90%+ of my buy in price I take it and run. I know I know "they're rookies you need to give them time" the issue is for every allen there's 3 or 4 mitch trubiskys that we forget about. Fwiw I sold fields and a late 22 first for tanny and the likely 1.1 in 23. I got fields at 7 and sold him for basically that kinda value so I took it and ran. Rookies that look good I need to overpay as rookie production is the highest correlation to future success
Totally agree. I would have moved Lawrence if I had the 1.01 in SF when the hype was at it's peak. I think he's safe, but I still have issues with his accuracy, and a few other things, but I think he's got a decent floor, but for FF purposes, I don't see the ceiling of some of the other top guys. Jags franchise also doesn't help, but the Bears have never developed a franchise QB to my knowledge, and I don't think Fields is that good to begin with. He's in a mess, and I just don't think it's going to work out with him there. I like that trade for you.
Funny story in that same league I did move tlaw in the week or two leading up to it. Nabbed tanny, Godwin and the 1.7 which wound up being fields. Got flamed for it when I made that deal but hindsight it looks pretty good.

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Blueboy » Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:06 pm

Maybe I'm a biased manager, but re-watching that Bears game I found myself making a lot of excuses for Fields. On some of the fumbles, his O-linemen got beat as bad as anything I can recall in the NFL. Especially the RT, who was the third-stringer, because Elijah Wilkinson and Germaine Ifedi were both out.

His worst play was that INT out of a scramble in the first quarter, that one really worried me, but I guess the context is that Nagy was in his headset before the play went off and -- incorrectly -- told Fields that the Bucs had 12 men on the field and it was a free play? And apparently that's happened two weeks in a row? I've never heard of a coaching situation like that.

Disclaimer: he also isn't seeing the field well at all, or flashing the athletic upside I hoped for (except for a few deep balls in previous games).

12-team SF, PPR, TE premium, 0.25 PPCarry
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Mahomes, Fields, Love
RB: Bijan, ETN, Pollard, Achane, Herbert
WR: Kupp, Hill, Metcalf, Ridley, Jeudy, D.J. M, Burks, Hollywood, Wan'Dale
TE: Kyle Pitts, Goedert

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Blueboy » Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:18 pm

Blueboy wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:06 pm Maybe I'm a biased manager, but re-watching that Bears game I found myself making a lot of excuses for Fields. On some of the fumbles, his O-linemen got beat as bad as anything I can recall in the NFL. Especially the RT, who was the third-stringer, because Elijah Wilkinson and Germaine Ifedi were both out.

His worst play was that INT out of a scramble in the first quarter, that one really worried me, but I guess the context is that Nagy was in his headset before the play went off and -- incorrectly -- told Fields that the Bucs had 12 men on the field and it was a free play? And apparently that's happened two weeks in a row? I've never heard of a coaching situation like that.

Disclaimer: he also isn't seeing the field well at all, or flashing the athletic upside I hoped for (except for a few deep balls in previous games).
Citation on this part: https://twitter.com/AdamHoge/status/1452418062880317444

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby DLF3000 » Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:51 am

Ice wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:43 am Lawrence is a future rock star.

Mac is a long term safe legit starter.
Lawrence keeps getting better and better, both in football and FF, even in the JAX dumpster fire. Good to great second QB in SF already, stud as soon as next year. Love love him long-term.

Mac's fine too, but not on the same level as TLaw.

The other guys? Ehh... no thanks right now, maybe talk next year?
35 Team Dyn PPR, 3 x Copy SF start 2TE Super Prem (TE 2 PPR, 8pt TD), 6 pt/non-TE TD, 1pt/20 yds pass (300 +3pt), 1pt/10 yds rush/rec (100 +3pt)

Start 12: 1QB 1SFLX 2RB 4WR 2TE 2FLX | 30 Active Roster, unlim Taxi, 3 IR/Out (+) | est. '21 | playoffs '21, '22

QB - J Allen, T Lawrence ...
RB - A Ekeler, S Barkley, J Cook, I Pacheco ...
WR - AJ Brown, C Ridley, G Pickens, C Sutton ...
TE - D Njoku, D Knox ...
® 2024 - | 2025 -

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby ThunderTung » Sat Oct 30, 2021 12:34 pm

DLF3000 wrote: Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:51 am
Ice wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:43 am Lawrence is a future rock star.

Mac is a long term safe legit starter.
Lawrence keeps getting better and better, both in football and FF, even in the JAX dumpster fire. Good to great second QB in SF already, stud as soon as next year. Love love him long-term.

Mac's fine too, but not on the same level as TLaw.

The other guys? Ehh... no thanks right now, maybe talk next year?
TLaw just has a different aura about him. He tells you he's a superstar just with the way his mechanics look. Love me some Mac, but there's no denying the physical talent differences
12 man IDP 0.5 ppr

QB(1): Geno Smith
RB(2): ETN/Walker III
WR(2): Chase/Lamb
TE(1): Goedert
FLEX(2): Stevenson/Garrett Wilson
K: Mcpherson
DL(2): T. Walker/Vea
LB(2): D. Long/TJ Edwards
DB(2) Dugger/Moehrig
FLEX: Kenneth Murray
IR: J. Hicks/Milano/Marcus Jones
Bench:
QB: Mac Jones/Bryce Young
RB: Zeke/D. Harris
WR: N. Brown/Demario Douglas/Bobby Trees/Parker/Tyler Scott
TE: Bellinger/Schultz
DL: Barrett/J. Davis/Yannick/
LB: Milano/Edwards/K. Murray/J. Smith
DB: Mathieu/Jonothan Owens

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby ArrylT » Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:11 pm

Patsfan86 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:47 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 2:42 pm
Jigga94 wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 2:21 pm Feels like there is a good chance 3 of these guys are busts and only 1 will be really good. Plenty of time but man... not encouraging day for Fields or Wilson
Said it in the other thread.

*3 most important factors in QB Development

- Coaching/Playcalling
- Franchise/Organization
- Offensive line

*Elite/Near-elite QB talents can nullify all of the above. After that, skill position talent starts to matter.

Time will tell how the above works out for each of the QBs, but as far as this season, Mac Jones is the only one who has all 3 boxes checked.

Playing QB in the NFL is really, really, really hard. There's only a handful of really good ones.
In regards to Mac, yes to the first two pieces but a big no to the bolded. This O line has not been good and has gotten him killled in some games. True yesterday was vs the Jets but Mac finally led the team to a blowout win at home, he is getting better. If rookie production correlates the most to future production why are people so insistent on calling Mac "Just a game manager"? He did have a 46 yard td pass yesterday. I just think that in this age of the big armed highlight play talent like Mahomes and Herbert people are far to focused on big play arm talent. Im not sure if Mac will be a fantasy stud but im confused why so many people dont see room for growth and are convinced he will just be Andy Dalton?

As far as the other QBs, i am totally out on Fields and Zach Wilson, mostly Wilson, he is just not good. Yes the teams are horrific but they both just make some mind numbing mistakes that i dont understand. Trevor Lawrence will still be the best QB in this class, i dont doubt that at all. He will be the best Fantasy and real life QB from it. Trey Lance is extremely unpredictable and those who drafted him are gonna have to be patient. With the 2022 QB class looking so bad everyone is gonna have to hope these QBs look better.
I like that you mentioned Andy Dalton. Not because I think they compare player-wise - rather I think Mac Jones is likely more in the Kirk Cousins vein - but rather if a player had 3 QB1 seasons & 4 QB2 seasons and you got them for a late 1st in SF or a 3rd in 1 QB league - I'd consider that a major success story. And from an NFL perspective Dalton was their QB for 5 straight playoff bound seasons - unfortunately he & the coaches were never able to get over that hump (of which a lot of blame fair or otherwise is cast upon him). But fantasywise when seeing guys like Trubisky, Rosen, Darnold, and Bortles all crash while Dalton had 7 straight QB2 or better seasons ...

16
12
3
18
19
12
16

I think & believe Mac Jones can have that as his floor. And if he can follow the Cousins path that will be more 10-14 type floor seasons than the 16-19 floor.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Sriracha » Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:04 pm

ArrylT wrote: Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:11 pm
Patsfan86 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:47 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 2:42 pm

Said it in the other thread.

*3 most important factors in QB Development

- Coaching/Playcalling
- Franchise/Organization
- Offensive line

*Elite/Near-elite QB talents can nullify all of the above. After that, skill position talent starts to matter.

Time will tell how the above works out for each of the QBs, but as far as this season, Mac Jones is the only one who has all 3 boxes checked.

Playing QB in the NFL is really, really, really hard. There's only a handful of really good ones.
In regards to Mac, yes to the first two pieces but a big no to the bolded. This O line has not been good and has gotten him killled in some games. True yesterday was vs the Jets but Mac finally led the team to a blowout win at home, he is getting better. If rookie production correlates the most to future production why are people so insistent on calling Mac "Just a game manager"? He did have a 46 yard td pass yesterday. I just think that in this age of the big armed highlight play talent like Mahomes and Herbert people are far to focused on big play arm talent. Im not sure if Mac will be a fantasy stud but im confused why so many people dont see room for growth and are convinced he will just be Andy Dalton?

As far as the other QBs, i am totally out on Fields and Zach Wilson, mostly Wilson, he is just not good. Yes the teams are horrific but they both just make some mind numbing mistakes that i dont understand. Trevor Lawrence will still be the best QB in this class, i dont doubt that at all. He will be the best Fantasy and real life QB from it. Trey Lance is extremely unpredictable and those who drafted him are gonna have to be patient. With the 2022 QB class looking so bad everyone is gonna have to hope these QBs look better.
I like that you mentioned Andy Dalton. Not because I think they compare player-wise - rather I think Mac Jones is likely more in the Kirk Cousins vein - but rather if a player had 3 QB1 seasons & 4 QB2 seasons and you got them for a late 1st in SF or a 3rd in 1 QB league - I'd consider that a major success story. And from an NFL perspective Dalton was their QB for 5 straight playoff bound seasons - unfortunately he & the coaches were never able to get over that hump (of which a lot of blame fair or otherwise is cast upon him). But fantasywise when seeing guys like Trubisky, Rosen, Darnold, and Bortles all crash while Dalton had 7 straight QB2 or better seasons ...

16
12
3
18
19
12
16

I think & believe Mac Jones can have that as his floor. And if he can follow the Cousins path that will be more 10-14 type floor seasons than the 16-19 floor.
There were a few NFL heads that said Mac Jones floor in the NFL is Kirk Cousins and his ceiling is Drew Brees.

I’d personally be disappointed if he didn’t amount to at least Matt Ryan at this point

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Oct 31, 2021 4:37 pm

"You're a creep. You got caught.." -Dan Patrick

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby mild » Sun Oct 31, 2021 4:59 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 4:37 pm @mild. This one is for you. :lol:

https://twitter.com/art_stapleton/statu ... 0165971981
:lol: :lol: :lol:

You're right, it IS for me!

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Blueboy » Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:23 pm

Fields finally flashed!

12-team SF, PPR, TE premium, 0.25 PPCarry
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Mahomes, Fields, Love
RB: Bijan, ETN, Pollard, Achane, Herbert
WR: Kupp, Hill, Metcalf, Ridley, Jeudy, D.J. M, Burks, Hollywood, Wan'Dale
TE: Kyle Pitts, Goedert

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby ArrylT » Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:42 am

NFL Research: Patriots QB Mac Jones joined Andrew Luck and Dak Prescott as the only rookies since the merger to have five-plus wins, 10-plus passing touchdowns and 2,000-plus passing yards in their first nine career games.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:02 am

Lawrence really has his work cut out for him in Jax. He doesn't look like a generational player to me, sorry. Not saying he can't be good, but I don't see a generational QB at all.
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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby abloom » Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:16 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:02 am Lawrence really has his work cut out for him in Jax. He doesn't look like a generational player to me, sorry. Not saying he can't be good, but I don't see a generational QB at all.
I think it's more a reflection of a generationally bad coach and team more than Lawrence.
Team #1: 2nd place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K

Q: Kyler, Fields, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens, wilson
T: Kelce, Goedert, Thomas, woods
D: cle, nyj
K: Sanders

Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K

Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson, Browning, Rudolph, Zappe
R: Swift, Walker, Dobbins, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen, Nuk, Tre tucker, C Samuel,
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE

Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F

Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson

Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0004&O=01

Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0009&O=01

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Nov 08, 2021 5:43 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:02 am Lawrence really has his work cut out for him in Jax. He doesn't look like a generational player to me, sorry. Not saying he can't be good, but I don't see a generational QB at all.
I still think he can overcome it, but so far the combination of Meyer, Bevell (OC), and Schottenheimer (pass game coordinator) is predictably awful.

Mac Jones has looked the best because of coaching, offensive line, and a defense that puts the team in good position to win games.


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