Elijah Mitchell thread

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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:25 pm

thebeast wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:10 pm I love what Mitchell is doing, but looking at what is happening makes me think the player to invest in right now is Sermon. He is a great buy low who won't cost much. Sure you can try and buy Mitchell now, but this is likely his top value, which is probably worth it if you are contending this year. Regarding Sermon, remember, some guys start out slow. Deebo was an afterthought this offseason and a throw-in to a lot of trades... Who knows what this offense will look like with Trey under center.
I don't think Sermon is fit for this offense at all. And I don't think Shanny redesigns the run game just because Lance is under center. I get buying low and have done that with literally every RB in this offense, except Sermon. I don't know why they even reached to draft him.

Now if Sermon were to swap teams, then maybe he'd be viable. Not saying he's complete trash. But I wouldn't spend more than a 3rd.

Also, where was Deebo a throw in? I remember Aiyuk out hyping him but I still thought Deebo held value and I don't think his situation is comparable to Sermons. We saw Deebo perform well, injury was really the only risk.

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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby Hottoddies » Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:28 pm

dynastyninja wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:02 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:56 am (like the myth of Shanahan’s revolving RBs)
How is it a myth? SFO under Shanny has been in the top half of the league in rushing the last 4 years and has never had a 1k yard rusher.

Injuries have been a major factor, but his offense is the definition of a RB carousel to me. It doesn't matter who's in there as long as they're good enough. His dad did the same thing.
If Mitchell maintains his health and his current pace, he should easily eclipse 1000 yards. Never say never.
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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:29 pm

Hottoddies wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:28 pm
dynastyninja wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:02 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:56 am (like the myth of Shanahan’s revolving RBs)
How is it a myth? SFO under Shanny has been in the top half of the league in rushing the last 4 years and has never had a 1k yard rusher.

Injuries have been a major factor, but his offense is the definition of a RB carousel to me. It doesn't matter who's in there as long as they're good enough. His dad did the same thing.
If Mitchell maintains his health and his current pace, he should easily eclipse 1000 yards. Never say never.
Yup. Mostert would've done it easily as well. Health has been the major factor here

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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby Pullo Vision » Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:46 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:29 pm
Hottoddies wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:28 pm
dynastyninja wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:02 am

How is it a myth? SFO under Shanny has been in the top half of the league in rushing the last 4 years and has never had a 1k yard rusher.

Injuries have been a major factor, but his offense is the definition of a RB carousel to me. It doesn't matter who's in there as long as they're good enough. His dad did the same thing.
If Mitchell maintains his health and his current pace, he should easily eclipse 1000 yards. Never say never.
Yup. Mostert would've done it easily as well. Health has been the major factor here
The injuries wrecking San Fran (such as Kittle, Deebo and the various RBs) makes me wonder about the health management department there.
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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:13 pm

Throw all your analytics, metrics & game tape away … whether or not Mitchell is a long-term RB1 will be determined by one factor … whether or not I keep him or move him. I’m leaning to keeping him, so that will condemn him to irrelevance by Week 2 of 2022.

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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby Ice » Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:23 pm

Forza_Azzurri wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:13 pm Throw all your analytics, metrics & game tape away … whether or not Mitchell is a long-term RB1 will be determined by one factor … whether or not I keep him or move him. I’m leaning to keeping him, so that will condemn him to irrelevance by Week 2 of 2022.
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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby thebeast » Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:55 am

Jigga94 wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:25 pm
thebeast wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:10 pm I love what Mitchell is doing, but looking at what is happening makes me think the player to invest in right now is Sermon. He is a great buy low who won't cost much. Sure you can try and buy Mitchell now, but this is likely his top value, which is probably worth it if you are contending this year. Regarding Sermon, remember, some guys start out slow. Deebo was an afterthought this offseason and a throw-in to a lot of trades... Who knows what this offense will look like with Trey under center.
I don't think Sermon is fit for this offense at all. And I don't think Shanny redesigns the run game just because Lance is under center. I get buying low and have done that with literally every RB in this offense, except Sermon. I don't know why they even reached to draft him.

Now if Sermon were to swap teams, then maybe he'd be viable. Not saying he's complete trash. But I wouldn't spend more than a 3rd.

Also, where was Deebo a throw in? I remember Aiyuk out hyping him but I still thought Deebo held value and I don't think his situation is comparable to Sermons. We saw Deebo perform well, injury was really the only risk.
While I don’t disagree with your thoughts I do think Shanahan had something in mind when he draft Lance and then moved up for Sermon. Personally I faxed Sermon and Carter in all my drafts except for 1 (1 of 8) as I didn’t like the history for RBs drafted in that range. That being said I still think this is an excellent but low opportunity and I would only be looking to invest in Mitchell for the rest of this year if I were contending.

Re: Deebo, in august he was being drafted after Shenault, Fant, Terrace Marshall , Gaskin and Bateman. It may not be a throw in but he didn’t hold any more value than a rookie late first or early second flier and most people weren’t investing in him.

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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:06 am

Jigga94 wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:25 pm
thebeast wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:10 pm I love what Mitchell is doing, but looking at what is happening makes me think the player to invest in right now is Sermon. He is a great buy low who won't cost much. Sure you can try and buy Mitchell now, but this is likely his top value, which is probably worth it if you are contending this year. Regarding Sermon, remember, some guys start out slow. Deebo was an afterthought this offseason and a throw-in to a lot of trades... Who knows what this offense will look like with Trey under center.
I don't think Sermon is fit for this offense at all. And I don't think Shanny redesigns the run game just because Lance is under center. I get buying low and have done that with literally every RB in this offense, except Sermon. I don't know why they even reached to draft him.

Now if Sermon were to swap teams, then maybe he'd be viable. Not saying he's complete trash. But I wouldn't spend more than a 3rd.

Also, where was Deebo a throw in? I remember Aiyuk out hyping him but I still thought Deebo held value and I don't think his situation is comparable to Sermons. We saw Deebo perform well, injury was really the only risk.
They took Sermon in part because of his ten yard split. His first step they loved. Then they saw him in real football action. :lol: . They clearly don't like him that much and this is a bit like Joe Willliams at this point. Mitchell is the superior back for that scheme, no doubt about it.
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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby killer_of_giants » Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:48 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:06 am They took Sermon in part because of his ten yard split.
i really hope this isn't true, otherwise they're really bleeding dense: the timer is hand-started, the differences in 10 yards splits are more likely to be due to the person taking the time than to the runners themselves.

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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby Space Cowboy » Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:05 am

thebeast wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:55 am
Jigga94 wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:25 pm
thebeast wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:10 pm I love what Mitchell is doing, but looking at what is happening makes me think the player to invest in right now is Sermon. He is a great buy low who won't cost much. Sure you can try and buy Mitchell now, but this is likely his top value, which is probably worth it if you are contending this year. Regarding Sermon, remember, some guys start out slow. Deebo was an afterthought this offseason and a throw-in to a lot of trades... Who knows what this offense will look like with Trey under center.
I don't think Sermon is fit for this offense at all. And I don't think Shanny redesigns the run game just because Lance is under center. I get buying low and have done that with literally every RB in this offense, except Sermon. I don't know why they even reached to draft him.

Now if Sermon were to swap teams, then maybe he'd be viable. Not saying he's complete trash. But I wouldn't spend more than a 3rd.

Also, where was Deebo a throw in? I remember Aiyuk out hyping him but I still thought Deebo held value and I don't think his situation is comparable to Sermons. We saw Deebo perform well, injury was really the only risk.
While I don’t disagree with your thoughts I do think Shanahan had something in mind when he draft Lance and then moved up for Sermon. Personally I faxed Sermon and Carter in all my drafts except for 1 (1 of 8) as I didn’t like the history for RBs drafted in that range. That being said I still think this is an excellent but low opportunity and I would only be looking to invest in Mitchell for the rest of this year if I were contending.

Re: Deebo, in august he was being drafted after Shenault, Fant, Terrace Marshall , Gaskin and Bateman. It may not be a throw in but he didn’t hold any more value than a rookie late first or early second flier and most people weren’t investing in him.
I did a startup over the summer and all those guys went before Deebo. (rookie draft was seperate)

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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:09 am

killer_of_giants wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:48 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:06 am They took Sermon in part because of his ten yard split.
i really hope this isn't true, otherwise they're really bleeding dense: the timer is hand-started, the differences in 10 yards splits are more likely to be due to the person taking the time than to the runners themselves.
They video adjust at the combine, I believe. Typically why the initial time is "unofficial". Matt Kelley on player profiler talks about this a lot, and is why his site adds .05 to pro day times. Pro days don't have laser finishes and video adjusted starts. It takes the human eye a certain amount of time to transfer the information to the brain, and then to the fingers upon seeing movement. Pro day times are typically faster due to this. .05 is the lower side, it's typically between .05 and .08 or so, if I recall correctly from the show where he went into detail about it.
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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby Ice » Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:41 am

killer_of_giants wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:48 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:06 am They took Sermon in part because of his ten yard split.
i really hope this isn't true, otherwise they're really bleeding dense: the timer is hand-started, the differences in 10 yards splits are more likely to be due to the person taking the time than to the runners themselves.
Sounds like you must believe they literally look at a 1 time hand timed event.

That isn't at all how it works in today's technology world...just saying.

10 yard splits are critical times teams look at for multiple positions as it may be the single best indicator of initial quickness.

This doesn't mean Sermon will be a good or bad RB going forward as he trains and matures in a professional system but those type splits are actually critical and No team in the NFL would look at one single metric.

They may have made a mistake on one and hit on the other RB or the one they hit on simply proves to be the better player.

Teams hit and miss all the time every year when drafting players.
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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:20 pm

Why did you bring up 10 yard splits

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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:27 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:20 pm Why did you bring up 10 yard splits
Just to piss you off. :lol:
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Re: Elijah Mitchell thread

Postby SoftwoodGrampian » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:02 pm

killer_of_giants wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:48 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:06 am They took Sermon in part because of his ten yard split.
i really hope this isn't true, otherwise they're really bleeding dense: the timer is hand-started, the differences in 10 yards splits are more likely to be due to the person taking the time than to the runners themselves.
They got back and time it down to the video frame


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