The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WINNERS: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez!

[timeEd32]

Availability matters.

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I think a lot of people (not specifically just the guy you replied to) devalue availability. I don't care that Barkley might be 2xtalented Gibson. I want Gibson over Barkley, and would gladly trade Barkley for Gibson straight up right now.

Talent doesn't win fantasy championships. Production wins championships. And no player can be productive if he's not available to play.

I get what you are trying to say, but in my opinion, you aren't taking the entire picture into account. Saying player A is better than player B because player A was available is over valuing small samples sizes in a violent sport where injury is highly unpredictable. Even if Barkely WAS more injury prone, is it more than 55-45? I can't hardly believe it would be more unless someone has a recurring injury(Miles Austin's hamstrings) Anything like 70-30 sounds just so absurd to me.

Now once we realize that it's pretty random who gets injured year to year, we can also look at VORP(value over replacement player), a value based drafting concept. What good is an available player if they only score a little more than next player up? If Jarrett Patterson comes in and scores 80% of Gibson's points but only 50% of a healthy Barkley, you could see how valuable Barkley is when available and how Gibson's availability isn't really that important after all.

Over valuing availability is a little like saying you would take 4 Tyler Boyd's for one Chase because you are sure you can always fill our your lineup.

Gibson is a good RB and I've exaggerated my examples to make my point, but I think my logic is still solid.

I will add that I agree with everyone here and if you can buy Gibson for rb2 prices I'd be all over it since I think this is his floor and he has room to run. He did really well under the circumstances. There is a danger they bring someone else in and split the load next year but it can't get much worse. But saying he has room to rise is different than saying he is valuable because he is available.

bingo -- and this is why calling someone an RB1 based on total point finishes can distort the truth.

Gibson's price is a lot more palatable now than it was last offseason. I'm actually inquiring about him now.

[murphysxm]

bingo -- and this is why calling someone an RB1 based on total point finishes can distort the truth.

Is it not truth that a player that finishes in the top 12 is a RB1? I would counter that points per game can also distort the truth, it is a combination of both that needs to be looked at

[Jigga94]

To each their own, but what I do is average PPG along with total points. Then I consider if any of the missed games by players were likely to reoccur. I also drop the 2 lowest and 2 highest games from each player as to not be influenced by these outliers. I will also throw out any games that I deem meaningless, like weeks 18 and any weeks where >5 players were out due to Covid. I take all this data and then multiply it by the players FPPT.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

bingo -- and this is why calling someone an RB1 based on total point finishes can distort the truth.

Is it not truth that a player that finishes in the top 12 is a RB1? I would counter that points per game can also distort the truth, it is a combination of both that needs to be looked at

PPG can be deceiving(see James Connor) and I agree that entire situation needs to be taken into account, but these guys were all top 12 finishes and certainly weren't top 12 talents(a healthy JRob as a lead back deserves to be in the group but as we've discussed before it's always an uphill battle to hold that situation for UDFAs)

Top 12 finishes in PPR-

2017- Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde
2018 - James White, James Connor and Tarik Cohen
2019 - an older Mark Ingram but generally a cleanish year for talent vs finish
2020 - James Robinson and Mark Davis
2021 - James Connor sure does find himself in some good situations

[murphysxm]

bingo -- and this is why calling someone an RB1 based on total point finishes can distort the truth.

Is it not truth that a player that finishes in the top 12 is a RB1? I would counter that points per game can also distort the truth, it is a combination of both that needs to be looked at

PPG can be deceiving(see James Connor) and I agree that entire situation needs to be taken into account, but these guys were all top 12 finishes and certainly weren't top 12 talents(a healthy JRob as a lead back deserves to be in the group but as we've discussed before it's always an uphill battle to hold that situation for UDFAs)

Top 12 finishes in PPR-

2017- Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde
2018 - James White, James Connor and Tarik Cohen
2019 - an older Mark Ingram but generally a cleanish year for talent vs finish
2020 - James Robinson and Mark Davis
2021 - James Connor sure does find himself in some good situations

By know means am I saying that a top 12 finish makes you a log term RB1 dynasty asset, but they were that year. Maybe I am looking to much through a redraft lense, put Henry led all of football in PPG, but also had 9 games with a zero. Yes there is replacement value, but I agree availability is a factor in the equation.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Is it not truth that a player that finishes in the top 12 is a RB1? I would counter that points per game can also distort the truth, it is a combination of both that needs to be looked at

PPG can be deceiving(see James Connor) and I agree that entire situation needs to be taken into account, but these guys were all top 12 finishes and certainly weren't top 12 talents(a healthy JRob as a lead back deserves to be in the group but as we've discussed before it's always an uphill battle to hold that situation for UDFAs)

Top 12 finishes in PPR-

2017- Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde
2018 - James White, James Connor and Tarik Cohen
2019 - an older Mark Ingram but generally a cleanish year for talent vs finish
2020 - James Robinson and Mark Davis
2021 - James Connor sure does find himself in some good situations

By know means am I saying that a top 12 finish makes you a log term RB1 dynasty asset, but they were that year. Maybe I am looking to much through a redraft lense, put Henry led all of football in PPG, but also had 9 games with a zero. Yes there is replacement value, but I agree availability is a factor in the equation.

Oh yeah, I agree they were for the year. I am arguing that it's not a clear estimation of value. And I don't think you are trying to imply it is. I believe I may have misunderstood what you were implying.

[murphysxm]

Oh yeah, I agree they were for the year. I am arguing that it's not a clear estimation of value. And I don't think you are trying to imply it is. I believe I may have misunderstood what you were implying.

Then bad on my part, I just feel like sometimes people get so focused on 1 specific matrix they get some blinders

[Anteaters]

points per game can also distort the truth, it is a combination of both that needs to be looked at

++

Not trying to debate with anyone, because I believe we can have different logical opinions about these kinds of players. Both Gibson and Barkley have flaws and positives. I prefer Gibson's combination of flaws-to-positives, but I fully understand why someone else might prefer to take a chance on Barkley's positives-versus-flaws.

Personally, I have a thing about frequently injured players. I don't chalk it up to "chance" and I don't say "it could happen to anybody." Frequent injuries that require multiple missed games don't happen to every RB. It might cost me here and there, but my aversion to frequently injured players is something I'm sticking with. But I don't try to dissuade anyone for taking a chance on talent+potential. We all have different strategies.

[FantasyFreak]

Gibson going Cammando next year.

Seriously, though. What a terrible name. That was the name they chose, so they thought it was the best one. What were the ones they didn't choose?

Football Team is a much better name, let's put it that way. The Commanders has to be the worst name in the league by far.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Gibson going Cammando next year.

Seriously, though. What a terrible name. That was the name they chose, so they thought it was the best one. What were the ones they didn't choose?

Football Team is a much better name, let's put it that way. The Commanders has to be the worst name in the league by far.

Commanders sounds very USFL. But maybe if they have a cool logo? But agreed, WFT is better. I too would like to know what names they rejected in favor of Commanders.

[FantasyFreak]

Gibson going Cammando next year.

Seriously, though. What a terrible name. That was the name they chose, so they thought it was the best one. What were the ones they didn't choose?

Football Team is a much better name, let's put it that way. The Commanders has to be the worst name in the league by far.

Commanders sounds very USFL. But maybe if they have a cool logo? But agreed, WFT is better. I too would like to know what names they rejected in favor of Commanders.

100 percent.

[Pac_Eddy]

I'm not a fan of the Commander name either. What an odd choice. I was blow away when the New Orleans NBA team chose Pelicans years ago too.

You'd think billionaires would have marketing people that would step in to stop some of these mistakes.

[CGW]

Commanders is an ok high school mascot. I'm actually somewhat surprised this is what they came up with as a suitable replacement.

[Tvols]

In the days OF PC and cancel culture there is only so much that can be used!

[MattDeezy]

FWIW, Gibson got packaged with Freiermuth in exchange for Kamara in a pretty standard ppr league.