The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WINNERS: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez!

[MEuRaH]

RIP Cam Akers thread, we hardly knew ye. Now that the preseason is over and injuries have happened, it's time to open up a new wager. I chose Gibson because it has to be someone I'm down on where I'm also in the minority. You'll notice that most of this is a copy/paste of the Akers thread. Yeah I'm lazy, but the bones are there.

Have fun!

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OK, I've had enough. It's time to make a wager. There are far too many people firmly on the Antonio Gibson bandwagon, and I just can't stand it anymore. His ranking is too high imo, his support is too high imo, and I think it's time to make a fun wager with the DLF forum community. If you are either firmly in the Gibson camp or not, you can still have a say in this wager and win a prize*!
*no cash value

You can just read or comment without making a wager if you like, or you could also put your neck out there and take a side! All successful wagers will win a spot in my sig for a calendar year. HOWEVER a wager is a two-way street, so I expect the same from you about me IF we disagree on opinion. Ready to play? Here we go!

This post will be broken down into three components:

(1) The Antonio Gibson Situation (historical comments & rankings)
(2) My Take & Why He Won't Be Successful In 2021 & Beyond
(3) The Wager

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The Antonio Gibson Situation (historical comments & rankings)

Antonio Gibson was the seventh RB taken in the 2020 NFL draft, rushed for under 800 yards as a starter, and now he's 22nd in ADP startups and 15th in mock drafts. He was even picked as high as FIRST in some of these startups!

He's better than Calvin Ridley? He'd be the 2nd pick on average in rookie draft!? THE LOVE IS INSANE!

Because monkeys must be doing the drafting. I have no other reasoning why. There must be a room full of monkeys somewhere in the world drafting Gibson in the first round of every startup. I don't know for sure, but there's no other plausible explanation in my mind, unless Gibson is out there in 1,000 leagues drafting himself..... wait MAYBE.... hmmm.....



My Take & Why He Won't Be Successful In 2021 & Beyond

Notice that "success" is italicized, which I did on purpose because success is subjective. For the record, I hope he is successful and he has a great career. I want him to have all the happiness and riches he can earn, because he's just a kid trying to make a buck. He's working hard every day to give us lazy fans enjoyment and entertainment, being paid by billionaires to do so. I can fully respect that. I want him to succeed.

But he won't succeed by my definition. He's in his sophomore year, the offense will feature more passing than last season, JD McKissic is still on the team as a darn fine pass catcher, and Jaret Patterson lit up preseason games week after week.

Did I forget to mention he was a converted WR? The success at RB can't last long!


THE WAGER

Ladies and gentlemen, here we go. Who wants to attach themselves to a piece of DLF history!? Who wants to put their necks out there and to have a little fun doing it!? Woohoo!

The Question Is Simple: Will Antonio Gibson be a top 10 RB in 2021, Season Total in 0.5 PPR?


HOW TO PLAY

Your Answer: Yes or no.
EXTRA BONUS QUESTION FOR GLORY: Give me what you think will be his final RB rank for the 2021 season.

The Wager:
-- Those who are right earn a spot in my sig for a calendar year with the title "THESE ARE THE REAL RB GURUS".
-- If you say "YES" & are wrong -- since I clearly disagree with you -- you must put my name in YOUR sig with the title "I can't beat the REAL RB GURU"
-- If you are right (YES or NO) & you can guess his RB rank for the 2021 season, I will give you the title of "ULTIMATE RB GURU" in my sig for a calendar year.

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**Disclaimer**

We will be using 0.5 ppr for this wager. The official league to check all stats will be my league called "Bracket League".

This is only for fun. There is no monetary prize associated with this wager.

Injuries are part of the games. Injuries could help Gibson or hurt Gibson (One could argue that without Akers, Dobbins, and ETN in the mix injuries have so far helped). If you think he's injury-prone, you should factor this into the wager.

You do not need to actually change your sig and I would never force such a thing, but failure to change your sig upon losing also disqualifies you from future wagers, of which I plan on doing.

Changing your mind and editing your post is OK up until the deadline which is week 1 kickoff (Thursday @ 8 PM EST).

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I believe guesses below are correct. If I made a mistake with your choice, let me know.

YES
CubfanAA - RB4
Anteaters - RB5
Ice - RB5
JJRules - RB5/6 (Zeke being the other 5/6)
TheNuts - RB6
jtk1234 - RB6
Bronco Billy - RB7
YouMightDieTryin - RB7
hockeyBjj - RB8
honcho55 - RB8
murphysxm - RB8
Patsfan86 - RB8
qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj - RB9
McCafsteez - RB9
jman3134 - RB10


NO
Dynos - RB11
SteveMaddensShoes - RB11 w/ full recap
CGW - RB12 (w/ Injury Clause)
Pac_Eddy - RB12
Per_Smith - RB13
Hottoddies - RB14
abloom - RB15 -- PREVIOUS WINNER
FantasyFreak - RB15
MFundercover - RB16
Orenthal Shames - RB16
StripesOfKC - RB16
BlueBoy - RB17
timeEd32 - RB17
dlf_mikeh - RB18
Ruggenater - RB19
raiders444 - RB21
sugbear65 - RB21 & More
Paul717 - RB24 (injuries)


Good Luck Everybody!

[Bronco Billy]

Yes

RB7

ETA (quoting myself from a May post)

We had some pretty lively debate about Antonio Gibson last season. He was admittedly a wild card, being a rookie in the COVID season, having crazy big play athleticism but a very small college workload, and changing from WR to RB in the NFL.

Now comes the sequel to that debate. First - full disclosure I am a Gibson owner who drafted him late in Rd 2 last year.

Here are Gibson’s current projections based on an average of the opinions of 9 experts who have completely broken out their 2021 numbers:

16 games
224 carries for 1024 yds 11 TDs 4.57 ypa
46 targets 40 catches for 296 yds 1 TD 7.40 ypr
2 fumbles

He’s typically being projected around RB12 with an ADP selection of 2.10 in a 12 team 1 QB ppr draft.

Here’s where I’m seeing these numbers as being below what even his floor ought to be (barring injury).

In the second half of the season, in games where he wasn’t injured, he averaged 17 carries per game while maintaining about 3 catches on 4 targets per game. That works out to 272 carries over a 16 game season. His projected 4.57 ypa is below his 4.70 ypa last season - so experts are predicting both his workload and his production will decrease from the second half of last year. That’s a disconnect to me.

Then we look at the team as a whole. Defensively they are going to remain stout. Their passing game is going to be better than the mess it was last year. The offensive line figures to be as good or better. The team did not add appreciably at the RB position. That only helps Gibson in that opponents will have to respect the pass more and they have not added a RB who would chew appreciably into his workload.

Here’s what I see as disconnect #2:
Ron Rivera in his 9 seasons as a HC in CAR ran the ball more than they passed when compared with the rest of the league. In those 9 years, here are his average rushing and passing rankings:
10th in rushing attempt, 7th in rushing yds, 7th in rushing TDs.
21st in passing attempts, 21st in passing yds, 18th in passing TDs.

But last year WAS rankings were:
25th in rushing attempt, 26th in rushing yds, 13th in rushing TDs.
9th in passing attempts, 25th in passing yds, 28th in passing TDs.

Rivera wants to run the ball as a HC a lot more than he did last season. That supports the thought that Gibson’s workload ought to go up, not down. And with the aid of a credible passing game, there’s no reason why his production ought to drop as well.

Then there is the way Rivera handled McCaffrey as a rookie. Remember the arguments when McCaffrey was drafted - that he’d only be a committee RB. Then his rookie year came and that position was only reinforced by the workload that Rivera gave him. But then in his sophomore season CMC got the lion’s share of that workload and his production skyrocketed to the best FF RB in dynasty leagues. Now we see some parallels in that Gibson was brought along slowly, especially with COVID trimming OTAs, training camp, and preseason. But we got a glimpse in the second half of the season of his workload escalating to 20 touches a game.

If these observations above are in line with what is going to happen this season, I see Gibson’s floor being greater than what his current average projections are:

16 games 255 rushing attempts for 1,211 yds and 12 TDs
48 targets with 42 catches for 321 yds and 2 TDs

If those numbers pan out, his floor is probably around RB9/10 this coming season, and if he were to maintain his 20 touches a game that gives room for upside from there in both the rushing and passing sides to a ceiling in the top 5 RBs. That’s a bonafide steal at his current ADP.

I rest my case. The floor is open for rebuttals.

[FantasyFreak]

No, and I have him in many places. I want very much to be wrong.

[MEuRaH]

No, and I have him in many places. I want very much to be wrong.

Don't wanna guess RB place of finish?

[FantasyFreak]

No, and I have him in many places. I want very much to be wrong.

Don't wanna guess RB place of finish?

Not as familiar with half PPR, but I will guess RB13-15. Let's say 15, if you want an exact number.

[Ruggenater]

No. RB19.

[StripesOfKC]

No

RB 16

[honcho55]

Yes. 8.

[CGW]

No, he will get injured for at least a few games with a foot injury. Rb12

[TheNuts]

Yes RB 6

[timeEd32]

No - RB17

[MFundercover]

Easy no. I'll give him RB 16.

[killer_of_giants]

oh ffs!

please lock this thread and send it into the centre of the sun.

[qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj]

oh ffs!

please lock this thread and send it into the centre of the sun.

As someone ownes (owned) Akers everywhere and has a ton of shares of Gibson, I'm with giant killer on this one lol.

But what the hell, put me down as yes: 9!

[Blueboy]

No. RB17