The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WINNERS: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez!

[MEuRaH]

Gibson has 180yds through two games. Over 17 games that's 1500+ combined RuRcv yds. Yardage wise, that is T10RB production. Not to mention the 4.8ypc so far this year would have placed Gibson 9th in that category for 2020 starting RBs.

If the schedule was all Chargers/Giants from here on out, absolutely.

Bills coming up next, which is a defense I am very excited about. I wouldn't expect much here from Gibson, so of course he'll score two touchdowns.

Do you think the Chargers and Giants are bad run Ds?

Too early to tell, but they aren't as good as others on the schedule imo. Lots of people are bringing up how Harris under-performed vs Buffalo, but I think that Buffalo front 7 was elite, not Harris was bad. Gibson is going to be up against a brick wall next Sunday.

I think three of the next four WTF matchups are tougher against the run than the Giants/Chargers are.

[Kmani6]

So RB25ish right now after week 1?

And now he's 18.6 points through two games, a 9.3 average.

His week one usage was not what I expected with 23 touches, but his week two was with 13 rushes and 2 targets. JD McKissic makes that offense more dynamic than Gibson as we saw vs the Giants. They have more reliable pass-catchers now, and when Curtis Samuel comes back I think the air attack will be an even bigger priority. I also think the emergence of Patterson will eventually eat into Gibson's workload, but that'll take some time.

That said, Gibson could have easily had a touchdown in week one which would have put him into the 13th spot. That's kind of fluky that it didn't happen. His week two output, however, was not a fluke. I expect more production similar to week two than I do to week one.

McKissic had one great play down the sideline, but the rest of his game was pretty awful. Try to count the number of times he tripped over his own feet during that game... The rest of his game were check-downs and failed plays.

Gibson looks like he's even more comfortable running the football than he was last year, which is a great sign. His lack of fantasy production is only because he has zero TDs so far.

[MEuRaH]

McKissic had one great play down the sideline, but the rest of his game was pretty awful. Try to count the number of times he tripped over his own feet during that game... The rest of his game were check-downs and failed plays.

You and I saw the same game and had two completely different takeaways, minus the tripping over his feet part, which was unfortunate.

You see the check downs and failed plays as a bad thing, while I see it as a good thing for McKissic. That's literally his role, the safety valve for a QB, especially a young QB who relies on such things more than a veteran would (on average). He's the passing downs back in this offense. When Washington needed to drive the field for that game winning FG, Gibson was on the bench for every play I believe.

[Kmani6]

McKissic had one great play down the sideline, but the rest of his game was pretty awful. Try to count the number of times he tripped over his own feet during that game... The rest of his game were check-downs and failed plays.

You and I saw the same game and had two completely different takeaways, minus the tripping over his feet part, which was unfortunate.

You see the check downs and failed plays as a bad thing, while I see it as a good thing for McKissic. That's literally his role, the safety valve for a QB, especially a young QB who relies on such things more than a veteran would (on average). He's the passing downs back in this offense. When Washington needed to drive the field for that game winning FG, Gibson was on the bench for every play I believe.

I'm highlighting the critical takeaway. I'm sure you'll agree as well. Gibson improved as a runner, likely because he feels more comfortable at the position with an extra off-season under his belt. Last night, he was breaking tackles and now plays as a more efficient and nuanced runner.

Mckissic's tripping over his feet all game long was not just "unfortunate," but shows that he's not in the same realm as Gibson is as a runner and is not any real threat other than serving as a parasite. Your point is that he's playing his role as a safety valve, but that's obvious to even someone that doesn't know football very well, and so it is not a critical takeaway and does not add any new insight to what we already know.

Unless something crazy happens where Gibson pulls a complete 180 from last year and can't find the end zone very much this season, he should finish as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2.

[dynastyninja]

The way I see it, McKissick plays McKissick's role better than Gibson plays McKissick's role. Gibson is a good running back and McKissick is a good 3rd down running back. Game script favored JD last night near the end, and he absolutely contributed to them winning.

40 time isn't everything, and McKissick is quicker than Gibson is, which is important for a pass catcher out of the backfield. Gibson hasn't been stellar for fantasy, but he's been very good for WFT both weeks. Rivera isn't going to force feed him the ball to make sure he gets 20 PPG in Jim Himjim's PPR league. He also gets to keep Gibson healthy by spelling him with McKissick. Most NFL teams are doing it nowadays, and WFT is no different.

I actually think things look promising for Gibson, he's just been cursed in dynasty by high expectations and visions of CMC 2.0. His floor in PPR has been basically 10 points, and he should have a few 20-30 point games this year (and would be due for an immediate bump if McKissick were to get hurt).

[MEuRaH]

I'm highlighting the critical takeaway. I'm sure you'll agree as well. Gibson improved as a runner

Actually I do not agree with this. I don't think he declined, but if there is improvement it's not significant enough to me.

Swift and Montgomery are improved -- Monty literally blew me away, he looks amazing -- but Gibson looks the same this year as he did last year, to me at least. But I don't really question his talent, I question his usage and in specific situations. For example, WFT appeared to use McKissic in the redzone quite a bit versus Gibson. McKissic was also in on obvious passing downs, and when they needed to score the winning FG, they opted for McKissic over Gibson.

All that said... I think Gibson will do just fine this season. RB2 is a given imo. RB1 still a stretch at this point.

[MEuRaH]

I actually think things look promising for Gibson, he's just been cursed in dynasty by high expectations and visions of CMC 2.0.

Yeah this is accurate. Everyone is looking for that dual threat, but Gibson is not it.

[dondickenson]

I only own Gibson on one roster but I’m trying to buy low. I’m mostly just happy he didn’t get injured playing on that horrible field in NY that had players tripping on it all night and has led to a ton of soft tissue injuries in the recent past

[MEuRaH]

Here's the snap count from last night, totals and broken down:

1st and 2nd down, not 2 minute drill - Antonio Gibson 38, J.D. McKissic 5
3rd downs, not 2 minute drill - J.D. McKissic 7, Antonio Gibson 3
2 minute drill - J.D. McKissic 19, Antonio Gibson 1

Totals: Gibson 42, McKissic 31

[CubfanAA]

Here's the snap count from last night, totals and broken down:

1st and 2nd down, not 2 minute drill - Antonio Gibson 38, J.D. McKissic 5
3rd downs, not 2 minute drill - J.D. McKissic 7, Antonio Gibson 3
2 minute drill - J.D. McKissic 19, Antonio Gibson 1

Totals: Gibson 42, McKissic 31

to be fair, twenty 2 minute drill snaps is a lot for one team in a game so the totals will probably favor Gibson a little more on average the rest of the season, but I do expect that rough breakdown for each situation to continue.

[FantasyFreak]

My biggest concern for his ceiling is that they don't want to target him specifically, in the passing game. Designed plays to get the ball to his hands in space. I think they are missing out on a big part of his skill set, here. McKissic is still running the 2 minute drill, too, where a lot of RB receptions can be had.

[blemly]

I actually think things look promising for Gibson, he's just been cursed in dynasty by high expectations and visions of CMC 2.0.

Yeah this is accurate. Everyone is looking for that dual threat, but Gibson is not it.

I think there is a chasm between “dual threat RB” and CMC. Gibson can absolutely be the former, but he doesn’t look to be a player that can handle CMC-level usage. That’s totally fine, CMCs only come around every so often.

[killer_of_giants]

My biggest concern for his ceiling is that they don't want to target him specifically, in the passing game. Designed plays to get the ball to his hands in space.

having a competent QB that starts for a number of games may help with that.

[YouMightDieTryin]

GIbson was a hybrid WR/RB in college, but he's seldom used in the passing game. I understand McKissic is superior to him in that area, but I still can't see why he's not used more like mentioned above. Give him the ball in open space and let him do what he does best. I understand the offense changed slightly with Fitz out, but you'd think it would gear more towards Gibson usage than taking away from him. It's week 2 and I'm still looking forward to watching him run for 300 yards against the Cowboys.

[FantasyFreak]

My biggest concern for his ceiling is that they don't want to target him specifically, in the passing game. Designed plays to get the ball to his hands in space.

having a competent QB that starts for a number of games may help with that.

But that's on the OC, not the QB. They aren't calling plays to get him the ball, that's my point. Like the screen to Logan Thomas. Plays where Gibson is the first read, and basically the only read 90 percent of the time due to it's design. The QB isn't airmailing it over Gibson's head on screens, he isn't getting any called for him. RB AND WR screens are options for Gibson, and I'm not seeing them being called.

Some of the plays in this game are great examples of what they could be doing more, to get him the ball in the passing game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVvwIrFihck