I still think he finishes in the top 12 this year for this wager, but I have lost confidence in him as a runner. I plan on selling this offseason before the draft, because I am worried somebody like Breece Hall might fall to Washington in the 2nd or even 3rd round and get drafted as Gibsons replacement.sugbear65 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:27 pm Less than 4 YPC average on the season. Less than 2.5 catches per game average. Has 5 rushing TDs so far this year. One stat he does lead the NFL RBs in is most fumbles, and most lost fumbles.
I swear he has the most ardent supporters of any RB in the league. This is the kind of production that should cause him to be replaced in the future, not gifted a higher workload.
The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WINNERS: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez!
Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
I have to admit, some of those stats worried me at first glance.sugbear65 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:27 pm Less than 4 YPC average on the season. Less than 2.5 catches per game average. Has 5 rushing TDs so far this year. One stat he does lead the NFL RBs in is most fumbles, and most lost fumbles.
I swear he has the most ardent supporters of any RB in the league. This is the kind of production that should cause him to be replaced in the future, not gifted a higher workload.
Then I check the list.
Gibson has 5 fumbles in 209 touches in 11 games in 2021. He had 1 fumble in 206 touches in 14 games in 2020. This indicates perhaps the issue is one of regression and not mechanics.
The other RBs on the 2021 leaderboard for fumbles? Devin Singletary with 5 fumbles in 124 touches in 11 games. That's a fumble rate twice as high as Gibson's. Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook and Justin Robinson are tied at 3 for the third most RB fumbles this year. While I'd love to see Gibson have fewer fumbles, I think this is a non issue unless he has a lot more. It's very possible he regresses to the mean, has no more this season, and the other guys match his total. I'll wait and see on that one before I label him a fumbler.
OTOH, I am always concerned when a RB averages less than 4ypc. That stat is a little misleading because Gibson is averaging 3.9 and that could be comfortably over 4.0 by year's end. I'll wait and see on that one too before passing judgement.
We still have over a third of the season remaining. More then enough games for Gibson to make a show of it, or fall into the pits.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion
TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion
TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser
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Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
One thing I pay attention to is any changes after the bye, especially with injury recovery. That gives coaching staffs enough time to make scheme changes, so Washington committing so firmly to the run is noteworthy. Gibson being off the injury report and looking so much better with those touches is huge.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:34 pmSure, but last night has been an outlier to his career so far. Extremely small sample size to try and predict future usage. Each game has a plan, and a game flow that is unique in it's own right. Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if he gets a ton of work going forward, I need him to step up with CMC going down, but I am not banking on last night as any future indication of his usage.Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:52 amIf he was a 2 down thumper getting volume rushes with little/no pass involvement like Foreman, I'd be concerned about Gibson. If he was merely getting volume touches with rush attempts like the last 3 games, I wouldn't be as amped. But, he get 7 catches- that addresses both the solid pass game involvement AND the bellcow. Again, Gibson was involved in the pass game BEFORE McKissic getting injured, so him coming back doesn't faze me.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:07 am He's not going to get those, though. McKissic is fine.
I'm not looking at career so far, but trends the rest of this year. It's not a long term dynasty viewpoint but redraft on steroids. Gibson now being healthy, Washington going run heavy since the bye, and then Gibson establishing season highs in receiving before McKissic got injured are all favorable trends for the rest of this year. I could understand dismissing the result if one believed Gibson got those targets after McKissic got injured, but it was BEFORE.
In no way am I BANKING on the increased receiving work, but given his college history, I think there's definitely reason to be optimistic. Just like how players are able to develop, coaching staffs' ability to use their players' demonstrated skills can also develop.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
Gibson is getting much better at this RB thing. I was hoping for a bit faster transition but anyone that owns him should be really optimistic about his future.
Currently he is the 3rd highest scoring RB in the 2020 class YTD. Granted there have been injuries including him but he was the 7th back drafted in that class selected 4 picks after Dillon.
Gibson has had 81 touches in the last 3 games, 9 of which were receptions. BTW; WFT has won 3 straight.
McKissic over that stretch has had 26 total touches with 10 of those being receptions.
Currently he is the 3rd highest scoring RB in the 2020 class YTD. Granted there have been injuries including him but he was the 7th back drafted in that class selected 4 picks after Dillon.
Gibson has had 81 touches in the last 3 games, 9 of which were receptions. BTW; WFT has won 3 straight.
McKissic over that stretch has had 26 total touches with 10 of those being receptions.
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Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
I get it. I just moved CMC for Gibson and a 2nd in a SF/TE premium league, where I am a contender, so I'm with you on the optimism. I have Gibson in over 50 percent of my leagues, FWIW.Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:38 pmOne thing I pay attention to is any changes after the bye, especially with injury recovery. That gives coaching staffs enough time to make scheme changes, so Washington committing so firmly to the run is noteworthy. Gibson being off the injury report and looking so much better with those touches is huge.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:34 pmSure, but last night has been an outlier to his career so far. Extremely small sample size to try and predict future usage. Each game has a plan, and a game flow that is unique in it's own right. Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if he gets a ton of work going forward, I need him to step up with CMC going down, but I am not banking on last night as any future indication of his usage.Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:52 am
If he was a 2 down thumper getting volume rushes with little/no pass involvement like Foreman, I'd be concerned about Gibson. If he was merely getting volume touches with rush attempts like the last 3 games, I wouldn't be as amped. But, he get 7 catches- that addresses both the solid pass game involvement AND the bellcow. Again, Gibson was involved in the pass game BEFORE McKissic getting injured, so him coming back doesn't faze me.
I'm not looking at career so far, but trends the rest of this year. It's not a long term dynasty viewpoint but redraft on steroids. Gibson now being healthy, Washington going run heavy since the bye, and then Gibson establishing season highs in receiving before McKissic got injured are all favorable trends for the rest of this year. I could understand dismissing the result if one believed Gibson got those targets after McKissic got injured, but it was BEFORE.
In no way am I BANKING on the increased receiving work, but given his college history, I think there's definitely reason to be optimistic. Just like how players are able to develop, coaching staffs' ability to use their players' demonstrated skills can also develop.
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Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
I have him in only one league but I like his combo of proven receiving ability and developing interior running abilities, to Ice's point. Too bad the trade market is closed in most of my leagues.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:48 pmI just moved CMC for Gibson and a 2nd in a SF/TE premium league, where I am a contender, so I'm with you on the optimism. I have Gibson in over 50 percent of my leagues, FWIW.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
Looks like in full PPr Gibson just cracked the top 10 in scoring. He was the 3rd best RB over the last 2 weeks.
HMMMMM
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The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts
Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
Believe he is up to 11ish in 0.5 ppr with some possibly harder matchups coming up. He's certainly benefitting from injuries to rbs ahead of him.
Team #1: 2nd place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K
Q: Kyler, Fields, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens, wilson
T: Kelce, Goedert, Thomas, woods
D: cle, nyj
K: Sanders
Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K
Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson, Browning, Rudolph, Zappe
R: Swift, Walker, Dobbins, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen, Nuk, Tre tucker, C Samuel,
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE
Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F
Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson
Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0004&O=01
Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0009&O=01
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K
Q: Kyler, Fields, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens, wilson
T: Kelce, Goedert, Thomas, woods
D: cle, nyj
K: Sanders
Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K
Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson, Browning, Rudolph, Zappe
R: Swift, Walker, Dobbins, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen, Nuk, Tre tucker, C Samuel,
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE
Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F
Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson
Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0004&O=01
Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0009&O=01
Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- Can he remain healthy enough to climb higher?
True. Exactly as they benefited from earlier injuries to Gibson. At the end of the season, one of the things that influences final position is availability due to health.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion
TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion
TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser
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Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
He also has a few upcoming games against the Dallas Cowboys. Yee hawww.
Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
How long is McKissic out? That's a huge difference obviously in his usage.
10 Team - NON PPR (5 Round Rookie Draft) - Start 2QB, 2RB, 4WR, 1TE, 1FLEX, 4DB, 4LB/DL/DB
Burrow/Howell (Murray, Geno)
Taylor/Swift (Sanders, Conner, Gibson, Miller, Spears Lenny)
Adams/Godwin/Higgins/McLaurin (DJ Moore, Hopkins, Tillman)
Kelce (Hockenson)
Budda/Holland/Blackmon/Minkah (Sydney Brown)
Bosa/Bernard/Okereke/EJones (Elliss)
Burrow/Howell (Murray, Geno)
Taylor/Swift (Sanders, Conner, Gibson, Miller, Spears Lenny)
Adams/Godwin/Higgins/McLaurin (DJ Moore, Hopkins, Tillman)
Kelce (Hockenson)
Budda/Holland/Blackmon/Minkah (Sydney Brown)
Bosa/Bernard/Okereke/EJones (Elliss)
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Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
I feel like if he stays healthy he will crack top 10 by war of attrition. If he gets banged up again then he won't make it. I'd say the bet line was pretty good since it's all about health, his and others at this point. If every single RB, Gibson included, stayed healthy I don't think he would have made it. But that's nothing against Gibson. He still has ceiling in his passing game. YPC is a little concerning. That's a Melvin Gordon YPC right there and to be productive you need alot of touches which entails alot more injury. I think if they can just use another RB a bit more and get Gibson more involved in the passing game he could be an RB1 for multiple years at this point. If they overuse him though I would be concerned about injury. There are normally less than 5 guys in the world that can take a heavy workload year after year after year at the RB position. You want more Kamara/Ekeler type usage than CMC if you want him to be your RB for more than a year or two.
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr
11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)
Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White
Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez
Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo
Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker
24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5
Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE
Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning
JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker
Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,
Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins
24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5
11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)
Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White
Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez
Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo
Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker
24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5
Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE
Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning
JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker
Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,
Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins
24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5
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Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
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Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
If this is the same toe he was struggling with all off season, we may not see AG again for a bit. Regardless, he's got turf toe again (big toe), and that's not good.
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Re: The Antonio Gibson Wager Thread --- WAGERS LOCKED! GOOD LUCK!
Hopefully he can continue to play. It would be a shame to see him climb all the way up to RB10-12, only to fall back again.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:51 pm If this is the same toe he was struggling with all off season, we may not see AG again for a bit. Regardless, he's got turf toe again (big toe), and that's not good.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion
TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion
TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser
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