bingo -- and this is why calling someone an RB1 based on total point finishes can distort the truth.SteveMaddensShoes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:03 pmAnteaters wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:42 pm++
I think a lot of people (not specifically just the guy you replied to) devalue availability. I don't care that Barkley might be 2xtalented Gibson. I want Gibson over Barkley, and would gladly trade Barkley for Gibson straight up right now.
Talent doesn't win fantasy championships. Production wins championships. And no player can be productive if he's not available to play.
I get what you are trying to say, but in my opinion, you aren't taking the entire picture into account. Saying player A is better than player B because player A was available is over valuing small samples sizes in a violent sport where injury is highly unpredictable. Even if Barkely WAS more injury prone, is it more than 55-45? I can't hardly believe it would be more unless someone has a recurring injury(Miles Austin's hamstrings) Anything like 70-30 sounds just so absurd to me.
Now once we realize that it's pretty random who gets injured year to year, we can also look at VORP(value over replacement player), a value based drafting concept. What good is an available player if they only score a little more than next player up? If Jarrett Patterson comes in and scores 80% of Gibson's points but only 50% of a healthy Barkley, you could see how valuable Barkley is when available and how Gibson's availability isn't really that important after all.
Over valuing availability is a little like saying you would take 4 Tyler Boyd's for one Chase because you are sure you can always fill our your lineup.
Gibson is a good RB and I've exaggerated my examples to make my point, but I think my logic is still solid.
I will add that I agree with everyone here and if you can buy Gibson for rb2 prices I'd be all over it since I think this is his floor and he has room to run. He did really well under the circumstances. There is a danger they bring someone else in and split the load next year but it can't get much worse. But saying he has room to rise is different than saying he is valuable because he is available.
Gibson's price is a lot more palatable now than it was last offseason. I'm actually inquiring about him now.