Way Way Too Early 2022 Draft Thread

[FantasyFreak]

Yep. That's cool. I just know some people who quote it like it's gospel. I just like to point out it's not infallible, but I agree with your take.

All G man Wait, does that mean you're going to ride the Wilson crazy train with me? Delightful news!

No. I mean I agree with your take on PFF, and that things aren't always as they seem simply box score watching. I still have my doubts on the Wilson/Jets combo. I think he's in tough there.

[Sriracha]

Yep. That's cool. I just know some people who quote it like it's gospel. I just like to point out it's not infallible, but I agree with your take.

All G man Wait, does that mean you're going to ride the Wilson crazy train with me? Delightful news!

No. I mean I agree with your take on PFF, and that things aren't always as they seem simply box score watching. I still have my doubts on the Wilson/Jets combo. I think he's in tough there.

It's interesting that someone would use PFF to defend Wilson's play... Aside from Mac Jones (who is killing it) the rookie QBs are all playing like rookies.. and are separated by a whopping 3.4 points.

PFF Rookie grades:

• Mac Jones: 79.7 -- good for 14th in the NFL ahead of Mahomes, Rodgers and Stafford
  Zach Wilson: 59.4
  Trey lance: 59
  Trevor Lawrence: 56.4
  Davis Mills: 56.3
  Justin Fields: 56

The concern for me here is that Wilson's grade and performance is comparable to the "raw" QBs coming in.
This was PFF's #1 graded QB of all time who posted a higher grade than Joe Burrow in 2020. He's not supposed to be struggling this hard...

Some may bring up Trevor Lawrence.. but I just don't have the same level of concerns with him. His body of work indicative of an elite talent goes back 5+ years; While Wilson wasn't bad his freshman and sophomore year.. the reason for his meteoric rise was his insane Junior season against one of the worst defensive groups BYU's faced in possibly decades.

One year wonders have fooled many a scout before.

Obviously Wilson is talented.. but there are plenty of QBs that never fire despite having amazing arm talent. I'm holding onto him where I have him but I'm definitely worried.

[j4pac]

I’ve watched every Lawrence snap. He’s just fine. The Jags are pretty easily the worst team in the NFL. Which is why Lawrence is on their team.

[mild]

It's interesting that someone would use PFF to defend Wilson's play... Aside from Mac Jones (who is killing it) the rookie QBs are all playing like rookies.. and are separated by a whopping 3.4 points.

PFF Rookie grades:

• Mac Jones: 79.7 -- good for 14th in the NFL ahead of Mahomes, Rodgers and Stafford
  Zach Wilson: 59.4
  Trey lance: 59
  Trevor Lawrence: 56.4
  Davis Mills: 56.3
  Justin Fields: 56

The concern for me here is that Wilson's grade and performance is comparable to the "raw" QBs coming in.
This was PFF's #1 graded QB of all time who posted a higher grade than Joe Burrow in 2020.

I thought it was valid. I think with all the INT's and the Jets still being an ugly eye-sore, it's been tempting for people to write ZW off as just another Jets bust (I mean, it's a steady narrative from the last 30 years, I don't blame them - but I'm cautioning against it) - and that sentiment on him is lower than the other rookie QB's. I quoted that PFF grade only to point out that his play, by their objective metric, has been no better or worse than the play of the other rookies. They're all Rookies. They're not going to turn around moribund franchises like the Jags and the Jets and the Niners ( ) in just one year. We're interested here in who is going to flash in the latter half of this season, and who is going to "take the jump" next year.

[mild]

Wouldn't these actually be reasons to not hold? Granted, I'm not advocating to sell either, but I'd definitely be worried.

The three most important factors in QB development:

- Coaching/Playcalling
- Organization/Franchise
- Offensive line (they've at least invested with Becton and Tucker)

Then things like WR and other skill positions come into play. My concern with Wilson is that he is not a great enough prospect to overcome one of the most inept franchises in the league. He's not Trevor Lawrence.

Maybe the coaching gets better, but as you said, it's tough going to a relatively unproven coaching staff with a brand new mix of weapons. I couldn't tell you what the Jets do well offensively even without Wilson.

... this, though, is a really good post - and cuts to the heart of the issue with the Jets.

Do we believe they are a team on the rise? Or have they bottled it completely, and doomed themselves to another cycle of mediocrity? Here's my evaluation of where they're at, personnel wise:

Saleh - He's what you want. Great temperament, emotionally intelligent, can connect with his players, and has a Jets defense with zero stars of note on it playing way better than they have any right to be right now. I'm bullish.

Joe Douglas - was handed an incredibly bad situation, and has made difficult calls and savvy moves to start pulling their feet out of the fire. Has invested in the OL with 2 premium picks in 2 years of drafting. He was hired in June 2019 - months AFTER the 2019 draft... #Jets.
His 1sts have been Becton, Wilson, Alijah Vera-Tucker. He's assembled a decent warchest for the 2022 draft, I'd personally let him use it: https://www.prosportstransactions.com/f ... e/Jets.htm

Mike LaFleur - this is the guy that I'm worried about. He's young, and bright - for sure. Perhaps the Shannahan scheme has been figured out by the league to an extent - it's had some ugly moments over in SF this year too - but none uglier than this offensive group trying to resemble an NFL offense. Their route concepts are hair-brained with their spacing and design in a lot of places, and are doing their rookie(s) no favours. Add to that their WR group leading the league in drops (and a lot of them for picks) and the fact that it's a Shanny scheme he's lifted, but appears to not know how to truly design / iterate out of... this is the position I have my eye on the most right now. It needs to improve, simple as that.

Zach Wilson - I like the mental makeup, I like the arm talent. I definitely believe he will get better - but the question is "how much". He's been done no favours by his surroundings. He's the big question mark here... you either liked what you saw coming out and think he can adjust... or you want no part of the Jets. I personally think if he was surrounded by a better organisation, he'd look a lot better. It's up to the Jets to do that for him.

I don't blame anyone for picking the "want no part of the Jets" option. As a Giants fan, I've spent the better part of my decades of fandom enjoying their clown-car show, believe me, I am pained to be driving this bus for ZW in that sense. It's just that I really do think he might be good, and I think there's still a ceiling here for him to "work it out".

[ArrylT]

This class will probably fall somewhere in between the 2019 and 2021 class for how good it is. I think the 21 class has been better then some thought, Waddle has certainly impressed and would probably be going in the top 4 of that class today if we were to draft over again (due to Etienne injury, Meyers job insecurity, and Jrob looking great again.) Im not sure if it will be as good as 2021 because there simply isnt a Jamar Chase. I do think itll be better than 2019 though overall. Who is the third best 2019 WR? Hollywood Brown? The third best Wr of this class will probably be better than him. Do we get a DK or AJB in 2022? Im not sure we do so thats the issue there. It wont be as good as 2017 or 2020 and it certainly shouldnt be as bad as 2016. If you go into it with expectations like the 2018 class i think it will be more in line with that, aside from that supposedly being a strong RB class.

God no respect for scary Terry(I'm guessing just forgot about him)
But I mean if we're talking the 4th best it's hard
Hollywood, deebo, and diontae johnson have all been good but have also had issues.
Yeah 2019 was that good of a class that deebo might currently be the 6th best wr
Yeah 2019 which was hated on was a low key star studded wr class oh yeah and it had hock and fant.

Thanks for having 2019s back.

[Sriracha]

It's interesting that someone would use PFF to defend Wilson's play... Aside from Mac Jones (who is killing it) the rookie QBs are all playing like rookies.. and are separated by a whopping 3.4 points.

PFF Rookie grades:

• Mac Jones: 79.7 -- good for 14th in the NFL ahead of Mahomes, Rodgers and Stafford
  Zach Wilson: 59.4
  Trey lance: 59
  Trevor Lawrence: 56.4
  Davis Mills: 56.3
  Justin Fields: 56

The concern for me here is that Wilson's grade and performance is comparable to the "raw" QBs coming in.
This was PFF's #1 graded QB of all time who posted a higher grade than Joe Burrow in 2020.

I thought it was valid. I think with all the INT's and the Jets still being an ugly eye-sore, it's been tempting for people to write ZW off as just another Jets bust (I mean, it's a steady narrative from the last 30 years, I don't blame them - but I'm cautioning against it) - and that sentiment on him is lower than the other rookie QB's. I quoted that PFF grade only to point out that his play, by their objective metric, has been no better or worse than the play of the other rookies. They're all Rookies. They're not going to turn around moribund franchises like the Jags and the Jets and the Niners ( ) in just one year. We're interested here in who is going to flash in the latter half of this season, and who is going to "take the jump" next year.

I do agree that it's way too early to jump ship on him despite his play

I just see more red flags in his profile and the disconnect between his expected readiness coming into the NFL and his play thus far has me more worried about his future than the other QBs (except possibly Fields).

[mild]

I do agree that it's way too early to jump ship on him despite his play

I just see more red flags in his profile and the disconnect between his expected readiness coming into the NFL and his play thus far has me more worried about his future than the other QBs (except possibly Fields).

Y'all good, my favourite of condiments Sriracha sauce is of the Gods.

Was Wilson really expected to be "ready" right off the bat, coming out? That wasn't my grip on it at all... if anything the knock was that he'd never seen anything even remotely resembling an NFL-level defense before. For those bullish on him, it was more the idea of "the throws are the throws, no matter what the level of competition" and a belief that he would adjust to the pro game and "work it out".

I do recall Rotoworld / NBC having one of the more sobering evaluations of him by Thor Nystrom - he had him 4th. I actually went back and pulled it now - it makes for pretty fun(ny) reading 7 weeks into the season.
https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/r ... b-rankings

Wilson’s best trait is his right wing. He can make all the throws, and he doesn’t need his feet set to do it. He’s an extremely confident pocket-passer who sees the field well, fires the ball out at the speed of sound and doesn’t need a runway to step into to get it out of there, and drops dimes to all three sectors of the field.

That's the good. Here's the sobering:

... If you ran a defense against Wilson, how would you defend him? You’d take away the deep shots and force him to prove he can work the ball up the field by beating you over the middle on touch and timing throws, yeah? From there, you’d just want to ensure you can get consistent pressure on him.

Wilson is deadly in clean pockets (97.5 PFF grade/144.2 NFL QB rating/78.2% completions/84.0% adjusted completion percentage under no pressure), but, despite his magician qualities, loses accuracy under pressure (74.3 PFF grade/98.3 NFL QB rating/48.4% completions/61.5% adjusted completion percentage).

My question is: How many of Wilson’s 2020 opponents were physically capable of generating pressure while leaving extra help deep? BYU not only played a poor schedule, but it ranked No. 8 in PFF’s pass blocking grades as a team. Wilson was generally able to hunt for explosive kill shots into the deep corners with very little downside, knowing he was always going to have time in the pocket (BYU allowed pressure on only 21.6% of dropbacks last year).

The fact that Wilson is (one of?) the most pressured starters in the league and is struggling should not really surprise us. He's never been in this position before. And the fact that the Jets are still not good after changing nearly every key position of their team from the Coaching on down, also should not surprise us.

To go all the way back to my first post about him a couple days ago... Zach Wilson is a distressed asset right now. If you liked his makeup and you believe that he can work it out - AND you can give any creedence to the idea that this coaching staff and GM might improve going forward - then he is a buy right now. To the poster asking his SF price earlier - if it was me, I'd be trying to purchase for a 2nd + a 3rd, possibly 2 2nds. As an owner, I'm still not getting off him for less than a premium 1st.

[Sriracha]

I do agree that it's way too early to jump ship on him despite his play

I just see more red flags in his profile and the disconnect between his expected readiness coming into the NFL and his play thus far has me more worried about his future than the other QBs (except possibly Fields).

Y'all good, my favourite of condiments Sriracha sauce is of the Gods.

Was Wilson really expected to be "ready" right off the bat, coming out? That wasn't my grip on it at all... if anything the knock was that he'd never seen anything even remotely resembling an NFL-level defense before. For those bullish on him, it was more the idea of "the throws are the throws, no matter what the level of competition" and a belief that he would adjust to the pro game and "work it out".

I do recall Rotoworld / NBC having one of the more sobering evaluations of him by Thor Nystrom - he had him 4th. I actually went back and pulled it now - it makes for pretty fun(ny) reading 7 weeks into the season.
https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/r ... b-rankings

Wilson’s best trait is his right wing. He can make all the throws, and he doesn’t need his feet set to do it. He’s an extremely confident pocket-passer who sees the field well, fires the ball out at the speed of sound and doesn’t need a runway to step into to get it out of there, and drops dimes to all three sectors of the field.

That's the good. Here's the sobering:

... If you ran a defense against Wilson, how would you defend him? You’d take away the deep shots and force him to prove he can work the ball up the field by beating you over the middle on touch and timing throws, yeah? From there, you’d just want to ensure you can get consistent pressure on him.

Wilson is deadly in clean pockets (97.5 PFF grade/144.2 NFL QB rating/78.2% completions/84.0% adjusted completion percentage under no pressure), but, despite his magician qualities, loses accuracy under pressure (74.3 PFF grade/98.3 NFL QB rating/48.4% completions/61.5% adjusted completion percentage).

My question is: How many of Wilson’s 2020 opponents were physically capable of generating pressure while leaving extra help deep? BYU not only played a poor schedule, but it ranked No. 8 in PFF’s pass blocking grades as a team. Wilson was generally able to hunt for explosive kill shots into the deep corners with very little downside, knowing he was always going to have time in the pocket (BYU allowed pressure on only 21.6% of dropbacks last year).

The fact that Wilson is (one of?) the most pressured starters in the league and is struggling should not really surprise us. He's never been in this position before. And the fact that the Jets are still not good after changing nearly every key position of their team from the Coaching on down, also should not surprise us.

All fair points, but when I spoke of the disconnect I was speaking relative to the rest of the rookie QBs.

Mac was easily identified as the most "pro ready" of the rookie QBs but Wilson was not supposed to be putting out similar grades to Lance (who is a year younger and has only started 1 full season vs FCS competition) and Fields who was rumored to be completely off of some teams boards due to concerns over his ability to process the field (whether you agree with that assessment or not).

There is an argument to be made that Lance is in a better situation and has a considerably smaller sample size to judge him by -- so comparing their PFF grades up to this point may not be a fair comparison.

To go all the way back to my first post about him a couple days ago... Zach Wilson is a distressed asset right now. If you liked his makeup and you believe that he can work it out - AND you can give any creedence to the idea that this coaching staff and GM might improve going forward - then he is a buy right now. To the poster asking his SF price earlier - if it was me, I'd be trying to purchase for a 2nd + a 3rd, possibly 2 2nds. As an owner, I'm still not getting off him for less than a premium 1st.

Very true. I have not seen anything that should change your mind on Zach's long term value this season. If you believed he would figure it out before the season you likely still hold that mindset.

[ArrylT]

Thanks for sharing that article link mild - much appreciated.

[FantasyFreak]

I am always more skeptical of QB's than most. Mac is perhaps the safes t floor player, Wilson, followed by Fields had the highest bust potential to me, and Lance is so raw I really had no idea how to evaluate him, because I believed he needed to sit for as long as possible. I hope Jimmy G stays on the field the rest of the year, for his sake. Lawrence, I think he's going to be a good/above average QB, but not elite. Despite the fact 5 were taken in the first round, and it was supposed to be a strong class, I personally don't believe any of these guys will be elite (top 5) QB's in the NFL.

[Nanananananana]

Kenny Pickett SZN

Has this guy been discussed?

I feel like he has moved into the top QB prospects tier for next year.

[ThunderTung]

I am always more skeptical of QB's than most. Mac is perhaps the safes t floor player, Wilson, followed by Fields had the highest bust potential to me, and Lance is so raw I really had no idea how to evaluate him, because I believed he needed to sit for as long as possible. I hope Jimmy G stays on the field the rest of the year, for his sake. Lawrence, I think he's going to be a good/above average QB, but not elite. Despite the fact 5 were taken in the first round, and it was supposed to be a strong class, I personally don't believe any of these guys will be elite (top 5) QB's in the NFL.

This largely depends on how JAX deals with this upcoming offseason. Top to bottom they need to figure it out or they might turn into the new Jets, where every 4 years they draft a new QB in the top 5, get excited about him, and then ruin him.

[Nanananananana]

Kenneth Walker III reminds me of Dobbins from a body type and play style standpoint.

Great to have him a part of this class he is easily a 1st round rookie pick.

[ThunderTung]

Kenneth Walker III reminds me of Dobbins from a body type and play style standpoint.

Great to have him a part of this class he is easily a 1st round rookie pick.

200+ yards 5 TD game should help is stock a bit lol