Way Way Too Early 2022 Draft Thread

[Hankybro21]

What constitutes a hit?

Everyone I don’t draft

[Cameron Giles]

Just as an FYI rbs taken 2nd+ of rookie drafts (based on adp) have an incredibly low hit Rate. Last I saw the last 3 years combined to a 15% rate or something ridiculous

They are good for flipping, not holding. It's really low for all positions after early 2nd but rbs generate stronger buzz and create more flip opportunities, ime.

Exactly. If you're holding hope that your 2nd/3rd/4th round rookie pick will produce a long-term starting RB, then good luck. Aaron Jones types are pretty rare.

You might get a guy who pops for a year and helps you win a league, then you flip after.

[Patsfan86]

The fact that they have such a low hit rate is why i want to take them in the second and pray, you arent killing your team doing that. Unless a RB is an all out stud like the 2017 guys or the 2020 guys (CEH not included) i really hate taking RBs in the early first. Josh Jacobs was the 1.01 in 2019 in most leagues, would you be able to sell him for this years 1.01? I doubt it. The second round is a total crapshoot all over so id rather take 2 RBs there and hope they work out then take two RBs in the first and be worried they are gonna bust.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

The fact that they have such a low hit rate is why i want to take them in the second and pray, you arent killing your team doing that. Unless a RB is an all out stud like the 2017 guys or the 2020 guys (CEH not included) i really hate taking RBs in the early first. Josh Jacobs was the 1.01 in 2019 in most leagues, would you be able to sell him for this years 1.01? I doubt it. The second round is a total crapshoot all over so id rather take 2 RBs there and hope they work out then take two RBs in the first and be worried they are gonna bust.

Your Jacobs example is easy to refute with Treadwell, Cooper, Corey Davis, Nkeal Harry, blah blah blah. Early 1st round RBs are some of the fastest risers around, ime. You pay the 1.01 and a year later you have Gurley, Chubb, Zeke, JT, etc and they are worth 3 firsts. Alot of 1st round wrs never return their value either.

I believe 1st round rookie rbs are some of the best value/high likely hood returns in redraft for to 12 rb finishes. Leads me to believe 1st round rbs in dynasty would be similar values. Normally difficult to get a young top 12 rb for a single draft pick.

[Patsfan86]

The fact that they have such a low hit rate is why i want to take them in the second and pray, you arent killing your team doing that. Unless a RB is an all out stud like the 2017 guys or the 2020 guys (CEH not included) i really hate taking RBs in the early first. Josh Jacobs was the 1.01 in 2019 in most leagues, would you be able to sell him for this years 1.01? I doubt it. The second round is a total crapshoot all over so id rather take 2 RBs there and hope they work out then take two RBs in the first and be worried they are gonna bust.

Your Jacobs example is easy to refute with Treadwell, Cooper, Corey Davis, Nkeal Harry, blah blah blah. Early 1st round RBs are some of the fastest risers around, ime. You pay the 1.01 and a year later you have Gurley, Chubb, Zeke, JT, etc and they are worth 3 firsts. Alot of 1st round wrs never return their value either.

I believe 1st round rookie rbs are some of the best value/high likely hood returns in redraft for to 12 rb finishes. Leads me to believe 1st round rbs in dynasty would be similar values. Normally difficult to get a young top 12 rb for a single draft pick.

I think i need to rephrase this, im talking about the classes with weak RBs. In this class specifically i would rather take a shot on a 2nd round Rb than take Spiller or Hall early. I think early picks this year should be used on Wrs, the same thing should have happened in 2019. Even last year Najee and Etienne were going before chase which made no sense to me.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

The fact that they have such a low hit rate is why i want to take them in the second and pray, you arent killing your team doing that. Unless a RB is an all out stud like the 2017 guys or the 2020 guys (CEH not included) i really hate taking RBs in the early first. Josh Jacobs was the 1.01 in 2019 in most leagues, would you be able to sell him for this years 1.01? I doubt it. The second round is a total crapshoot all over so id rather take 2 RBs there and hope they work out then take two RBs in the first and be worried they are gonna bust.

Your Jacobs example is easy to refute with Treadwell, Cooper, Corey Davis, Nkeal Harry, blah blah blah. Early 1st round RBs are some of the fastest risers around, ime. You pay the 1.01 and a year later you have Gurley, Chubb, Zeke, JT, etc and they are worth 3 firsts. Alot of 1st round wrs never return their value either.

I believe 1st round rookie rbs are some of the best value/high likely hood returns in redraft for to 12 rb finishes. Leads me to believe 1st round rbs in dynasty would be similar values. Normally difficult to get a young top 12 rb for a single draft pick.

I think i need to rephrase this, im talking about the classes with weak RBs. In this class specifically i would rather take a shot on a 2nd round Rb than take Spiller or Hall early. I think early picks this year should be used on Wrs, the same thing should have happened in 2019. Even last year Najee and Etienne were going before chase which made no sense to me.

I kind of agree with this class and that idea. I'll add that if DD or Mike both hype a guy going later on he will be a must target for me. I'm not a real scout and I depend on a collection of resources for my decisions and they are as good as it gets

[tresskid84]

has anyone watched any actual games/tape of Quay Holmes?

[Dynos]

in one of my league i have 1.10(i won the league) and we have all 2022 and 2023rd player because it's a new devy league.

I'm not sure about taking a 2023rd player. Seems risky a little bit What do you think guys?

[FiremanEd]

The fact that they have such a low hit rate is why i want to take them in the second and pray, you arent killing your team doing that. Unless a RB is an all out stud like the 2017 guys or the 2020 guys (CEH not included) i really hate taking RBs in the early first. Josh Jacobs was the 1.01 in 2019 in most leagues, would you be able to sell him for this years 1.01? I doubt it. The second round is a total crapshoot all over so id rather take 2 RBs there and hope they work out then take two RBs in the first and be worried they are gonna bust.

Your Jacobs example is easy to refute with Treadwell, Cooper, Corey Davis, Nkeal Harry, blah blah blah. Early 1st round RBs are some of the fastest risers around, ime. You pay the 1.01 and a year later you have Gurley, Chubb, Zeke, JT, etc and they are worth 3 firsts. Alot of 1st round wrs never return their value either.

I believe 1st round rookie rbs are some of the best value/high likely hood returns in redraft for to 12 rb finishes. Leads me to believe 1st round rbs in dynasty would be similar values. Normally difficult to get a young top 12 rb for a single draft pick.

I think i need to rephrase this, im talking about the classes with weak RBs. In this class specifically i would rather take a shot on a 2nd round Rb than take Spiller or Hall early. I think early picks this year should be used on Wrs, the same thing should have happened in 2019. Even last year Najee and Etienne were going before chase which made no sense to me.

Harris returned for his investors. His dynasty value climbed to 1st round and he was producing. Yes, Chase was a valid investment too, but it isn’t like Harris didn’t work out for investors, and cash out opportunity remains. ETN got hurt. It can happen.

Every class and situation is unique. Can’t bucket general concepts. Need to assess case by case and use your preferred approach as a differentiator when things are close for you. Thankfully your example has both coming out winner.

[tresskid84]

Just as an FYI rbs taken 2nd+ of rookie drafts (based on adp) have an incredibly low hit Rate. Last I saw the last 3 years combined to a 15% rate or something ridiculous

Opportunity will almost always be the most important factor for rbs in fantasy . . . and who is going to get the first opportunities most of time? James Robinson types typically don't ever get the opportunity for a meaningful workload, while Saquon Barkley types are going to be given every opportunity to succeed. Thats true for many positions in the nfl though.

Doesn't mean there aren't outliers, and its fun looking for those outliers. id rather stash late round rbs than wrs, just for the chance of opportunity through things like injury and such, which comes more frequently at rb, for obvious reasons, but playing the value game and long term sustainability of success, its mostly going to be day 1 and day 2 guys of the nfl draft that have sustainable workloads over time (but thats true at every position, except maybe tight end).

[tresskid84]

I probably missed this, as i havent been active on the forums in quite a while (and reading 27 pages is overwhelming my brain, lol), but how are we feeling about the 22 rb class? because i actually sneakily love it.

[BabyChark23]

I probably missed this, as i havent been active on the forums in quite a while (and reading 27 pages is overwhelming my brain, lol), but how are we feeling about the 22 rb class? because i actually sneakily love it.

Most people seem pretty down on the RBs in this class. I think the top three look solid and there is an interesting second/third tier. None of them have truly elite profiles though.

[FantasyFreak]

I probably missed this, as i havent been active on the forums in quite a while (and reading 27 pages is overwhelming my brain, lol), but how are we feeling about the 22 rb class? because i actually sneakily love it.

Most people seem pretty down on the RBs in this class. I think the top three look solid and there is an interesting second/third tier. None of them have truly elite profiles though.

Kid from Michigan State could be a real good one. His hand seemed OK, despite the fact they didn't really use him that way. I'm really interested in his combine/pro day for that. Walker: The runner. But is he a receiver? What's the Frequency Kenneth? Can you catch?

[dondickenson]

Watching tape on these RBs I am not very impressed. The top guys in 2022 are second tier prospects. Sort of reminds me of 2019. It’s early days and I could be convinced otherwise, but I would probably rank the past 6 years plus this one as:

2017
2020
-
2018
2021
2016
-
2019
2022

[Farley]

Watching tape on these RBs I am not very impressed. The top guys in 2022 are second tier prospects. Sort of reminds me of 2019. It’s early days and I could be convinced otherwise, but I would probably rank the past 6 years plus this one as:

2017
2020
-
2018
2021
2016
-
2019
2022

It's amazing to me that 2019 still gets bashed in hindsight.