Kadarius Toney Thread

[FantasyFreak]

There’s no way I’d sell a Beckham carbon copy.

Headcase’s still score fantasy points.

Beckham went for 3+ firsts at one point. Look at his value now.

Beckham won people leagues for many years. You can’t just trade away every player away for picks the moment their value spikes and expect to actually win.

I actually can't believe this conversation is happening.

[StripesOfKC]

I'll admit that I may have been way off

Didn't see it coming at all and if it did I didn't think it would have been so early

I did end up with one share that the owner who drafted him in one league dropped after week 2 but wish I had gotten more for the price

Not overreacting but he has indisputably been great the last two weeks

[FantasyFreak]

I'll admit that I may have been way off

Didn't see it coming at all and if it did I didn't think it would have been so early

I did end up with one share that the owner who drafted him in one league dropped after week 2 but wish I had gotten more for the price

Not overreacting but he has indisputably been great the last two weeks

We all have our fair share of misses. Maybe you were wrong about Toney, but show me one person who's been right about every player. Good on you for this post.

[PR0v3]

Beckham went for 3+ firsts at one point. Look at his value now.

Beckham won people leagues for many years. You can’t just trade away every player away for picks the moment their value spikes and expect to actually win.

I actually can't believe this conversation is happening.

It’s not that surprising. Toney was taken 20th overall in the NFL draft, he was a stud prospect.

[mild]

It’s not that surprising. Toney was taken 20th overall in the NFL draft, he was a stud prospect.

By draft capital only, though - and to buy into that, you had to buy into the 2021 Giants and their braintrust. Congratulations to anyone that did that and swam against the tide, but I sure didn't hear many prominent voices being vocal about that in the preseason.

Aside from being selected high by Dave "I hate computers" Gettleman, his analytical profile did not suggest anything special:

Breakout age - 21.6 (24th percentile)
Market Share - best season was 17.8%, and he was under the regression line all 4 years
Dominator - 23.7% (30th percentile)

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 45760?s=20

And again, by Matt Harmon's reception perception - his profile suggested a tackle-breaking Percy Harvin style gadget player, not a fully realised WR.

"13th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage and the 1st percentile against press"

To those that took him because they loved what they saw on film, believed in Dave Gettleman (and Urban Meyer?) selecting him in the 1st, and thought he could translate to the Pro game, congratulations. For me, I'm happy to miss and learn on a prospect like this - outliers happen, and no stats are perfect. But in the Dynasty game, we must work with what we have. This one appears a win for the film guys! Congrats to them.

(ps. I'm excited to see him matchup against Jalen Ramsey this week)

[PR0v3]

It’s not that surprising. Toney was taken 20th overall in the NFL draft, he was a stud prospect.

By draft capital only, though - and to buy into that, you had to buy into the 2021 Giants and their braintrust. Congratulations to anyone that did that and swam against the tide, but I sure didn't hear many prominent voices being vocal about that in the preseason.

Aside from being selected high by Dave "I hate computers" Gettleman, his analytical profile did not suggest anything special:

Breakout age - 21.6 (24th percentile)
Market Share - best season was 17.8%, and he was under the regression line all 4 years
Dominator - 23.7% (30th percentile)

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 45760?s=20

And again, by Matt Harmon's reception perception - his profile suggested a tackle-breaking Percy Harvin style gadget player, not a fully realised WR.

"13th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage and the 1st percentile against press"

To those that took him because they loved what they saw on film, believed in Dave Gettleman (and Urban Meyer?) selecting him in the 1st, and thought he could translate to the Pro game, congratulations. For me, I'm happy to miss and learn on a prospect like this - outliers happen, and no stats are perfect. But in the Dynasty game, we must work with what we have. This one appears a win for the film guys! Congrats to them.

(ps. I'm excited to see him matchup against Jalen Ramsey this week)

His pro-day testing numbers were off the charts good, the only comparable WR to him testing wise was Ja'Marr Chase. His film was obviously outstanding and he had a great senior year statistically. The late breakout can easily be explained by the fact that he was a QB for virtually his entire football life. There's more to prospect evaluation than breakout age and dominator rating in a vacuum.

There was a reason he was taken 20th overall and had multiple suitors in the same range, why he was widely viewed as a first round talent by most of the draft pundits, media, and NFL teams. The dominator rating + breakout age crowd completely whiffed on him, but his full analytical profile (of which draft capital is by far the #1 most important component) and tape was great.

It appears to be a win for the analytic and tape crowds, a loss for the "breakout age + dominator rating only, ignore everything else" crowd.

[FantasyFreak]

Beckham won people leagues for many years. You can’t just trade away every player away for picks the moment their value spikes and expect to actually win.

I actually can't believe this conversation is happening.

It’s not that surprising. Toney was taken 20th overall in the NFL draft, he was a stud prospect.

No, I mean the idea that some guys were once worth more than they are now. Like OBJ. Of course all players have a peak value, it's tough to tell exactly when those are. Guys who traded CMC in the midst of his magical season may have got a boatload, but if you were a contender, I'm sure that title was worth more than getting out at his current value at the time.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 45760?s=20

And again, by Matt Harmon's reception perception - his profile suggested a tackle-breaking Percy Harvin style gadget player, not a fully realised WR.

"13th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage and the 1st percentile against press"

Not to discredit Matt Harmon but he only takes a handful of games at most for evaluation. You just have to understand when you read his stuff that he has not analyzed the entire season, from what i remember he only does like 3 games or something to that extent. I don't think it's more than a handful.

[Chwf3rd]

It’s not that surprising. Toney was taken 20th overall in the NFL draft, he was a stud prospect.

By draft capital only, though - and to buy into that, you had to buy into the 2021 Giants and their braintrust. Congratulations to anyone that did that and swam against the tide, but I sure didn't hear many prominent voices being vocal about that in the preseason.

Aside from being selected high by Dave "I hate computers" Gettleman, his analytical profile did not suggest anything special:

Breakout age - 21.6 (24th percentile)
Market Share - best season was 17.8%, and he was under the regression line all 4 years
Dominator - 23.7% (30th percentile)

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 45760?s=20

And again, by Matt Harmon's reception perception - his profile suggested a tackle-breaking Percy Harvin style gadget player, not a fully realised WR.

"13th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage and the 1st percentile against press"

To those that took him because they loved what they saw on film, believed in Dave Gettleman (and Urban Meyer?) selecting him in the 1st, and thought he could translate to the Pro game, congratulations. For me, I'm happy to miss and learn on a prospect like this - outliers happen, and no stats are perfect. But in the Dynasty game, we must work with what we have. This one appears a win for the film guys! Congrats to them.

(ps. I'm excited to see him matchup against Jalen Ramsey this week)

You're acting like only Dave Gettleman and Urban Meyer were high on Toney. While the dynasty community hated Toney, NFL draft analysts were always very, very high on him.

Daniel Jeremiah - 28th overall
Lance Zerlein - WR5
Dane Brugler - 28th overall

[remedy29]

It’s not that surprising. Toney was taken 20th overall in the NFL draft, he was a stud prospect.

By draft capital only, though - and to buy into that, you had to buy into the 2021 Giants and their braintrust. Congratulations to anyone that did that and swam against the tide, but I sure didn't hear many prominent voices being vocal about that in the preseason.

Aside from being selected high by Dave "I hate computers" Gettleman, his analytical profile did not suggest anything special:

Breakout age - 21.6 (24th percentile)
Market Share - best season was 17.8%, and he was under the regression line all 4 years
Dominator - 23.7% (30th percentile)

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 45760?s=20

And again, by Matt Harmon's reception perception - his profile suggested a tackle-breaking Percy Harvin style gadget player, not a fully realised WR.

"13th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage and the 1st percentile against press"

To those that took him because they loved what they saw on film, believed in Dave Gettleman (and Urban Meyer?) selecting him in the 1st, and thought he could translate to the Pro game, congratulations. For me, I'm happy to miss and learn on a prospect like this - outliers happen, and no stats are perfect. But in the Dynasty game, we must work with what we have. This one appears a win for the film guys! Congrats to them.

(ps. I'm excited to see him matchup against Jalen Ramsey this week)

I get that he didn't breakout till his Senior year, but that lazy analysis doesn't take into account he was learning the WR position in college, he was hurt his Junior year, and literally Toney first touch, his junior year on on Florida's first possession of the year, was something like a 60 yard screen pass where he broke multiple tackles for a TD. That play alone, would have gotten him a day 2 draft grade. It's not like he came out of nowhere.

[KingsKing]

Waldman had Toney as his 5th overall WR prospect and #1 slot WR. His top 4 were Chase.Waddle.Bateman and Smith .

[cazzie33]

Where's Waldman on M. Strachan ???

[Cameron Giles]

It’s not that surprising. Toney was taken 20th overall in the NFL draft, he was a stud prospect.

By draft capital only, though - and to buy into that, you had to buy into the 2021 Giants and their braintrust. Congratulations to anyone that did that and swam against the tide, but I sure didn't hear many prominent voices being vocal about that in the preseason.

Aside from being selected high by Dave "I hate computers" Gettleman, his analytical profile did not suggest anything special:

Breakout age - 21.6 (24th percentile)
Market Share - best season was 17.8%, and he was under the regression line all 4 years
Dominator - 23.7% (30th percentile)

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 45760?s=20

And again, by Matt Harmon's reception perception - his profile suggested a tackle-breaking Percy Harvin style gadget player, not a fully realised WR.

"13th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage and the 1st percentile against press"

To those that took him because they loved what they saw on film, believed in Dave Gettleman (and Urban Meyer?) selecting him in the 1st, and thought he could translate to the Pro game, congratulations. For me, I'm happy to miss and learn on a prospect like this - outliers happen, and no stats are perfect. But in the Dynasty game, we must work with what we have. This one appears a win for the film guys! Congrats to them.

(ps. I'm excited to see him matchup against Jalen Ramsey this week)

I love Reception Perception. Harmon is usually really good with it in the pro level and has had his share of hits at the college level too.

I'm really curious what he has to say in his midseason profile of Toney, because it's not really matching the profile. Players can get better, but essentially Toney went from being completely awful at beating press and man to really good at it in a few months?

[Cameron Giles]

I get that he didn't breakout till his Senior year, but that lazy analysis doesn't take into account he was learning the WR position in college, he was hurt his Junior year, and literally Toney first touch, his junior year on on Florida's first possession of the year, was something like a 60 yard screen pass where he broke multiple tackles for a TD. That play alone, would have gotten him a day 2 draft grade. It's not like he came out of nowhere.

We'll see how he looks rest of season. I don't want to say he looks like an outlier, but there wasn't just a whole lot to foreshadow what we're currently seeing. The movement and ability to make people miss was definitely there though. The route vs. Diggs was filthy.

It's a very interesting story of analysis at bare minimum.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Where's Waldman on M. Strachan ???

It would appear pre-NFL Draft "Unranked". Post NFL Draft WR81.

And that's just for incoming 2021 rookies.