Mike Strachan...hype or real deal?

[Cameron Giles]

So we’re just going to continue the same tired argument of those who demand immediate results vs those who see potential given desirable characteristics/demonstrated ability in TC/PS? Fine, do it without me.

If you’re certain that a 3rd FF pick next year will be better than what Strachan could develop into then you should be trading right now.

You can see where I stand pretty easily throughout this thread. You can call it tired if you want, but the objective reality is that 7th rounders do not have a big window to impress. They are immediately expendable and have very short careers in the NFL. There is no long-term development plan for any 7th round pick.

My point has never been that a 3rd round pick has a significantly better chance of success; it's that a 3rd round pick is more sustainable currency to use in the trade market than random long shot players with preseason hype columns. You can use it to sweeten deals very easily for really good players.

Would anyone trade a 3rd for Strachan right now? I wouldn't be shocked if he's on waivers in 12 team leagues right now.

And my point is that with your mentality, you will always miss out on the Darren Wallers and Arian Fosters and Antonio Browns and Steve Smiths. Always. Because none of them produced any kind of meaningful stats within the time frame that you demand.

So have at it and dump away.

Incorrect. Because, you could've easily sold Waller and bought in again later if there were signs of something coming. Just like I could've sold Strachan during the offseason and bought in later if I felt something was developing.

Steve Smith was a 3rd round pick. He's not applicable to this conversation. That's not a longshot player.

The point is that by selling these players early, you are profiting more often. You currently have a player who you wouldn't have sold for a 3rd months ago, who people now wouldn't trade a 3rd for. Strachan has a 10.85% ownership percentage on MFL right now.

I called this earlier in the thread. If he doesn't show any flash early in the season, people will move on, because the shot was already in the dark to begin with.

[Orenthal Shames]

[*]

A 3rd round pick sounds mighty delicious right about now

People were saying they'd turn down 2nds for him earlier in this thread.

And now he'll take up a roster spot until next year's "he's turning heads!" column for a longshot drops.

Rinse. Repeat.

[Orenthal Shames]

Even if you're a believer in MS, you could have cashed on the hype and then re-bought at today's massive discount.

As Cam said, picks are tangible assets that don't take up roster spots.

Your example of potentially missing out on 3 guys over the span of twenty years is proving the point of how few succeed.

I wasn't even playing dynasty yet when Smith and AB came out, so I can't speak much to them, but Waller was dropped and then restashed years later by the vast majority.

[ArrylT]

I think this thread is a good example of how sometimes we can be talking about different things and/or coming at dynasty from different angles.

For example personally I would never be opposed to any owner selling Strachan for what they felt was a profit. My stance is however that you should always try to stash at least 1 player - roster & league dependent - to see if you can hit a home run. Most of us know that these are long odds - but when the odds hit - the profit in terms of production is enormous. Strachan has all the earmarks of having better odds than the "JAG" an owner can typically add off waivers. Doesnt mean those odds will pan out - just that I rather sell the player with 1% odds than that of 3-4% odds.

You can pretty much ALWAYS find a player to profit off. I for one certainly have not ever argued against that, and I doubt the vast majority of owners would. The question is if Strachan specifically was worth it to the owners that like his profile.

And speaking of getting value for Strachan - according to the Trade finder there have been, at least imho, 0 trades where Strachan got you anything of good value - there are trades where he is a minor accessory involved - but only a few trades where he even earned you a 4th (which was where he was drafted in some of my leagues). No trades where Strachan was traded for a 3rd standalone

https://apps.dynastyleaguefootball.com/ ... er=9993785

I can also verify, apart from a trade I was involved in yesterday - that there have been ZERO trades across all of my leagues involving Strachan over the past few months. As in no owner has made a trade involving Strachan for any reason for the past 3 months. I log every trade in every league I am in - and no bueno. So from both personal experience, and information provided by DLF - the ability to actually get a 3rd for Strachan, up to this point, has been well very unlikely. If a 4th was enough profit for an owner then hopefully they were able to earn that.

However and I am pretty sure I alluded to this earlier in the thread - you can grind grind grind and eventually get a productive player out of it - but is the cost of acquisition always worth it?

Player off waivers into 4th
grind that 4th into 3rd
"" 3rd into 2nd
"" 2nd into 1st
1st into valuable player

Definitely can work.

Of course if that player was James Robinson - well now he's back to being a 1st again - so if you had simply held onto him ... player valuations change frequently and can be very volatile from league to league. The point in the end is not that you should not try and profit off players - it is to figure out when the best time to do so is - and that window will vary from league to league depending on format, need, where you value the player, & timing.

Obviously if you as an owner do not believe in Strachan as anything more than a means to an end - then hopefully you were able to benefit from the transaction. However from what I have seen from the trade finder & the large variety of leagues I am in - the odds that has happened with Strachan seems unlikely - and there is still plenty of time for the owner stashing him to see where his journey goes. And if it comes to nothing, well the cost was extremely minimal as well.

And yes you may be able to - as seen with Josh Gordon - get further opportunities not just to own but also profit off of - but that is true with pretty much all players at some point. But that will depend on the league. There are still 65-70% of owners in my leagues holding on to Guice.

If you believe in a player - then stash that player - there are always going to be other players to make a quick "profit" off. Pick and choose the players you want to own short term, mid term & long term. There are still 65-70% of owners in my leagues holding on to Guice (I am repeating this because it is obvious people still believe in him or hope to benefit from stashing him).

[Cameron Giles]

Even if you're a believer in MS, you could have cashed on the hype and then re-bought at today's massive discount.

As Cam said, picks are tangible assets that don't take up roster spots.

Your example of potentially missing out on 3 guys over the span of a decade is proving the point of how few succeed.

Guys like Waller were dropped and then restashed years later.

Clockwork.

How many times have people bought and sold Josh Gordon all these years? If you are consistently good at selling hype, you can always have currency in dynasty. There will be more players just like this who flop and there will be one who's actually different.

Strachan is not some special case of a 7th round pick to warrant any type of patience.

[Orenthal Shames]

I agree with the general advice above from ArryIT.
My only caveat would be that the league has to be deep enough for this to make sense. If you're in a 12 man, low 20s-something roster size league, these types of players don't even really deserve to be rostered.

[Cameron Giles]

I agree with the general advice above from ArryIT.
My only caveat would be that the league has to be deeo enough for this to make sense. If you're in a 12 man, low 20s-something roster size league, these types of players don't even really deserve to be rostered.

Bingo. And that's reflecting in his 11% ownership on MFL.

Selling for a 3rd rounder was always a theoretical exercise, but currently he is not worth a 3rd in a 12-team league with average roster size. Is he worth a 4th? Probably not even that. So, the rug absolutely got swept up from under him and if you're rostering him, he's just clogger.

That's just the reality for these long shot players. Nobody's ever advised against playing that game, because we all do, but if they don't do anything in the short-term, they are not worth a roster spot unless you play in the deepest of leagues. So, it's something that you absolutely have to think about before you get too caught up in hype.

[lukkynumber13]

Why is this thread 17 pages long...??

[ArrylT]

I agree with the general advice above from ArryIT.
My only caveat would be that the league has to be deep enough for this to make sense. If you're in a 12 man, low 20s-something roster size league, these types of players don't even really deserve to be rostered.

Admittedly most of my leagues have gravitated from that to 28+.

I'd say 50/50 SF or TE Premium & typical 1QB but only 20-25% of my leagues have rosters less than 26.

In DLF Safe and or leagues with a high DLF Forum membership (8-10 leagues) he is owned in all those leagues, and approx 75% of all leagues I am in.

As always knowing your format & the league is vital to knowing what will work. So absolutely if you're in a 24 man roster league where you need a K & a TD and bye weeks - monitoring from waivers is quite feasible.

[ArrylT]

Why is this thread 17 pages long...??

Alas I would like a longer per page post count - ie 25-30 posts a page rather than the current 15.

[Space Cowboy]

Why is this thread 17 pages long...??

Shiny chance to look smarter than league mates

[DLF3000]

In a deep league like mine, guys like him are cool to roster if you enjoy setting aside a few end-of-roster slots for for these types of guys.

Not everybody plays this way and that's cool but like has been said it can be fun. Just like some people are constantly churning their end of roster fringe, while some don't bother. It's all good, ton of ways to play fantasy, especially dynasty.

And it's not like there's a bunch of better guys available - in deep leagues anyway. At some point they're all fringe, whether short or long-term.

Drafted Strachan in the last round of our startup - he's one of those guys I'll at least roster for a year and see how it goes. One of many ways to handle guys like him on - or off - your (deep) dynasty roster.

[cazzie33]

He’s Baaaack !

[Hankybro21]

It is time

[murphysxm]

It will be Dulin, but I love the refresh!