Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

[murphysxm]

Yes, definately. Alot of owners tend to panic and sell early. Thats where you have to step in and buy low. It happen pretty much every year

I guess my take away is I don't play in these kinds of leagues. I have found if I want a guy I have to draft him or over pay. Buying low only happens when they are bench fodder 5 years in

[Pullo Vision]

In the various pieces I read/heard today, one interesting highlight was Russell Gage had 110 targets last year, more than guys like Evans and Claypool. In games without Julio, Gage averaged 8 targets last year.

Thanks for sharing!

Sure! Found the original article- https://www.fantraxhq.com/julio-jones-t ... -football/

[remedy29]

Maybe I'm missing something, but once again I see people talking about non-owners perceived/assumed value on another player talked about as though that's what sets a players "price"; because of what I'm assuming is mistaking this value/price opinion as correct just because it's held by the majority of people. Obviously non-owners will always outnumber owners, so right off the bat, it's a poor argument. But also basic logic will tell you a price isn't real until something is sold for that. So all non-owners can forever spout on about how Pitts value and price will drop, but if owner's aren't selling him for less then they paid, that is patently false. His price will always be what he's actually moved for, not what non-owners are willing to pay. And considering the large majority of dynasty owners always view their own players through rose colored glasses, and other manager's players (at least when negotiating trades) as below value; none of this makes sense to me. Sorry for picking nits, but man this get's so tiresome to see thread after thread.

To put speculation aside; I am a Pitts owner and I can say:

1. I will not be "disappointed" if he doesn't put up a Kelce season. This is ridiculous to even keep putting forth until we start seeing actual owners regularly coming on here saying that. I've read plenty of times that may be his ceiling, but even then, rarely suggested it's his ceiling for year 1; let alone an expected outcome instead of just a potential ceiling.

2. I will not be selling him for less than I paid until at the very least the end of his third season. There are a million scenarios where he could get moved for roster construction, salary cap leagues, mult copy, etc etc. and then people can debate viewpoints in value. But in a vacuum, he will not be moved for less then current price next year outside of a rare league Taco.

So until owners start saying they are depending on him to come out the gates as a TE 1-3 and will be disappointed if he doesn't do this; and say that they will be selling him for significantly less then current price if that happens, can we all stop spouting this nonsense as though it's fact. I'm sure in some rare cases it is, and judging by some of the almost unbelievable stacked teams I see in some signatures, maybe some of the board members are in full on Taco leagues. But this is not often the case, especially not with such highly touted players at a position where everyone knows patience is required.

You see people bring this up in thread after thread because although many owners claim upfront they won’t sell at a discount in the future due to a disappointing season, it very regularly happens. You’re willing to exercise patience because you believe it will be rewarded at the end of the day—I see way more owners on the reactionary side of the house that are instead very quick to give up on players. Maybe Pitts will be the universal exception to this, but I doubt it.

Disappointing how?
All Pitts needs to do is show his potential and talent.
A guy like Ruggs disappointed his rookie year because his suckage at American football was on full display all season long.

Pitts is no where near the football player prospect Ruggs is. Ruggs simply was all about speed, despite people wanting to believe otherwise.

[Ruggenater]

You see people bring this up in thread after thread because although many owners claim upfront they won’t sell at a discount in the future due to a disappointing season, it very regularly happens. You’re willing to exercise patience because you believe it will be rewarded at the end of the day—I see way more owners on the reactionary side of the house that are instead very quick to give up on players. Maybe Pitts will be the universal exception to this, but I doubt it.

Disappointing how?
All Pitts needs to do is show his potential and talent.
A guy like Ruggs disappointed his rookie year because his suckage at American football was on full display all season long.

Pitts is no where near the football player prospect Ruggs is. Ruggs simply was all about speed, despite people wanting to believe otherwise.

What if he has an Eric Ebron-like start to his career? Gets off to a slow start in the offseason, ends up behind Hayden Hurst to start the year, has some injuries further limit his playing time, and struggles with drops?

[DynastyKing23]

You see people bring this up in thread after thread because although many owners claim upfront they won’t sell at a discount in the future due to a disappointing season, it very regularly happens. You’re willing to exercise patience because you believe it will be rewarded at the end of the day—I see way more owners on the reactionary side of the house that are instead very quick to give up on players. Maybe Pitts will be the universal exception to this, but I doubt it.

Disappointing how?
All Pitts needs to do is show his potential and talent.
A guy like Ruggs disappointed his rookie year because his suckage at American football was on full display all season long.

Pitts is no where near the football player prospect Ruggs is. Ruggs simply was all about speed, despite people wanting to believe otherwise.

What if he has an Eric Ebron-like start to his career? Gets off to a slow start in the offseason, ends up behind Hayden Hurst to start the year, has some injuries further limit his playing time, and struggles with drops?

That'd present a good buy low window to reach out to impatient owners. I own the 1.02 and 1.03 this year with the plan on taking harris and Pitts since 1.01 wants chase. A season like that would not cause me to sell. I'd be holding on and hoping for a sophomore jump instead of selling him at his lowest.

[murphysxm]

What if he has an Eric Ebron-like start to his career? Gets off to a slow start in the offseason, ends up behind Hayden Hurst to start the year, has some injuries further limit his playing time, and struggles with drops?

I promise you and will plant my flag and go down in a blaze of glory if I am wrong. No matter what Pitts does year one, he will not be sold low in any competitve dynasty league. If you believe enough to use that kind of draft capital, your ego will not allow you to give up so quickly.

[dustyroads]

Yes, definately. Alot of owners tend to panic and sell early. Thats where you have to step in and buy low. It happen pretty much every year

I guess my take away is I don't play in these kinds of leagues. I have found if I want a guy I have to draft him or over pay. Buying low only happens when they are bench fodder 5 years in

Same here, across several different leagues over like 20 years now lol. On maybe 2-3 occasions the stars have aligned and the player I'm looking to get is held by an owner who is low on him AND the he's high on a player on my roster who I'm low on. Otherwise it's pulling teeth, overpaying, underselling, numerous stipulations attached, spend hours talking it through, and 9/10 end in no trade anyway hah. At least in dynasty; cheap buy-in, random redraft leagues I've def had more experiences of 1/2 owners are snake oil salesmen and the other 1/2 are suckers who paid $50 to have something else to do Sunday's while they watch the games.

Maybe it's just I've migrated away from leagues stuffed with people who are casuals that do things like give up on a 1st round rookie after a year, panic sell because of a blurb, over inflate cause of an off-season puff piece, still do drafts by filling out their starting line up first, need to be reminded to set their line ups for Thursday night games, etc. etc. More I think of it, not being able to easily win trades on a regular basis might be worth not having any of that other stuff to deal with every week as well. Takes some of the skill out of it when there are a few Taco's who can greatly influence league dynamics via a couple bonehead moves.

[Ruggenater]

What if he has an Eric Ebron-like start to his career? Gets off to a slow start in the offseason, ends up behind Hayden Hurst to start the year, has some injuries further limit his playing time, and struggles with drops?

I promise you and will plant my flag and go down in a blaze of glory if I am wrong. No matter what Pitts does year one, he will not be sold low in any competitve dynasty league. If you believe enough to use that kind of draft capital, your ego will not allow you to give up so quickly.

You and many others will, many also won’t. There are a lot of people who think the dynasty community is slow to react, and in the above scenario would believe that by getting out at 80 cents on the dollar next year, they’re doing so before the bottom really falls out and they’re left with nothing. I don’t think that approach only applies to “non-savvy” owners.

[dustyroads]

What if he has an Eric Ebron-like start to his career? Gets off to a slow start in the offseason, ends up behind Hayden Hurst to start the year, has some injuries further limit his playing time, and struggles with drops?

I promise you and will plant my flag and go down in a blaze of glory if I am wrong. No matter what Pitts does year one, he will not be sold low in any competitve dynasty league. If you believe enough to use that kind of draft capital, your ego will not allow you to give up so quickly.

You and many others will, many also won’t. There are a lot of people who think the dynasty community is slow to react, and in the above scenario would believe that by getting out at 80 cents on the dollar next year, they’re doing so before the bottom really falls out and they’re left with nothing. I don’t think that approach only applies to “non-savvy” owners.

Only that's not this case. That makes sense and is a "savvy" move when its a 2nd/3rd round draft pick who already was not statistically likely to hit. That's when it's taking a loss of .20 makes sense. Whether you go by Pitts game tape, his raw stats, what his measurables were, what the metrics say; he's not a standard draft pick. Paired with the fact he's basically got a floor of 1.05 in ADP and plays a position historically taking longer to develop into at the NFL level... Now it isn't selling .80 on $1, its selling for $80 on $100. You're giving up $20, not .20. And that's not a savvy move, it's a bad move, mostly evinced by there only being two camps here: one that wants to buy Pitts now, and others saying they will buy him later (at a supposed discount).

We can agree to disagree that people will be selling next off-season because I have no clue what happens in the leagues you're in. But to try to apply the bolded argument as a sound strategy regarding any first round rookie pick TE, let alone one with Pitts profile, is bad process.

[brward]

I promise you and will plant my flag and go down in a blaze of glory if I am wrong. No matter what Pitts does year one, he will not be sold low in any competitve dynasty league. If you believe enough to use that kind of draft capital, your ego will not allow you to give up so quickly.

You and many others will, many also won’t. There are a lot of people who think the dynasty community is slow to react, and in the above scenario would believe that by getting out at 80 cents on the dollar next year, they’re doing so before the bottom really falls out and they’re left with nothing. I don’t think that approach only applies to “non-savvy” owners.

Only that's not this case. That makes sense and is a "savvy" move when its a 2nd/3rd round draft pick who already was not statistically likely to hit. That's when it's taking a loss of .20 makes sense. Whether you go by Pitts game tape, his raw stats, what his measurables were, what the metrics say; he's not a standard draft pick. Paired with the fact he's basically got a floor of 1.05 in ADP and plays a position historically taking longer to develop into at the NFL level... Now it isn't selling .80 on $1, its selling for $80 on $100. You're giving up $20, not .20. And that's not a savvy move, it's a bad move, mostly evinced by there only being two camps here: one that wants to buy Pitts now, and others saying they will buy him later (at a supposed discount).

We can agree to disagree that people will be selling next off-season because I have no clue what happens in the leagues you're in. But to try to apply the bolded argument as a sound strategy regarding any first round rookie pick TE, let alone one with Pitts profile, is bad process.

In the specific case of Pitts I would not be selling for much less than I paid after one year barring a disastrously bad season where it looks like he forgot how to play football. He's got an amazing profile in a position that is very tough to come out year one and kill it.

If you're saying never sell a first round pick for less than you paid I disagree there. Ask owners of Treadwell, Doctson, Coleman, Harry, etc if they wish they sold for a late first early second after year one. There was a twitter thread where someone looked at early round rookie face planters and how often they bounce back and become relevant. The odds are not in their favor

[murphysxm]

If you're saying never sell a first round pick for less than you paid I disagree there. Ask owners of Treadwell, Doctson, Coleman, Harry, etc if they wish they sold for a late first early second after year one. There was a twitter thread where someone looked at early round rookie face planters and how often they bounce back and become relevant. The odds are not in their favor

I can't speak for others, but for me I agree with this. I just think Pitts is kind of a unicorn that does not fit into normal thought process.

[ArrylT]

This is a very interesting thread and I like seeing the different examples shown - I think we all know our experiences shape our perspectives - so obviously if you're in a league where you know the owners are the type to give up or move off players easily then that is a different story from a league where the owner holds onto the player forever unless they get a kings ransom.

And a good point was made in that we only hear from the owners who speak up. That is why polls are so helpful & informative at times - since you can get 100 responses rather than just 10 posts. I'll try to remember a year from now to put up a poll about this time asking if an owner was able to get Pitts at a cost well below current pricing.

[Shoreline Steamers]

This is a very interesting thread and I like seeing the different examples shown - I think we all know our experiences shape our perspectives - so obviously if you're in a league where you know the owners are the type to give up or move off players easily then that is a different story from a league where the owner holds onto the player forever unless they get a kings ransom.

And a good point was made in that we only hear from the owners who speak up. That is why polls are so helpful & informative at times - since you can get 100 responses rather than just 10 posts. I'll try to remember a year from now to put up a poll about this time asking if an owner was able to get Pitts at a cost well below current pricing.

That's a good point. After being around for several years, I often notice that there are usually WAY more poll votes than posts for a given topic. Though someone on the boards may not want to type a response, they're usually more than willing to check a box.

[dustyroads]

You and many others will, many also won’t. There are a lot of people who think the dynasty community is slow to react, and in the above scenario would believe that by getting out at 80 cents on the dollar next year, they’re doing so before the bottom really falls out and they’re left with nothing. I don’t think that approach only applies to “non-savvy” owners.

Only that's not this case. That makes sense and is a "savvy" move when its a 2nd/3rd round draft pick who already was not statistically likely to hit. That's when it's taking a loss of .20 makes sense. Whether you go by Pitts game tape, his raw stats, what his measurables were, what the metrics say; he's not a standard draft pick. Paired with the fact he's basically got a floor of 1.05 in ADP and plays a position historically taking longer to develop into at the NFL level... Now it isn't selling .80 on $1, its selling for $80 on $100. You're giving up $20, not .20. And that's not a savvy move, it's a bad move, mostly evinced by there only being two camps here: one that wants to buy Pitts now, and others saying they will buy him later (at a supposed discount).

We can agree to disagree that people will be selling next off-season because I have no clue what happens in the leagues you're in. But to try to apply the bolded argument as a sound strategy regarding any first round rookie pick TE, let alone one with Pitts profile, is bad process.

In the specific case of Pitts I would not be selling for much less than I paid after one year barring a disastrously bad season where it looks like he forgot how to play football. He's got an amazing profile in a position that is very tough to come out year one and kill it.

If you're saying never sell a first round pick for less than you paid I disagree there. Ask owners of Treadwell, Doctson, Coleman, Harry, etc if they wish they sold for a late first early second after year one. There was a twitter thread where someone looked at early round rookie face planters and how often they bounce back and become relevant. The odds are not in their favor

No, not at all, I probably could have done better to clarify that was just for TE mostly due to the fact they rarely set the league on fire out of the gate. Some have put up TE1 numbers, but in general they are known to take longer to transition due to having to really learn both line and WR terminology/plays/auds. Even then I wouldn't say never. A lot of it will still come down to subjectivity where you sell if the individual performance was bad, or the very least, not as billed. But if it's just a bad situation, lack of targets, lingering injury, not getting playing time; that's when it makes more sense to hold, or at least recoup initial price. Which also comes down to the subjectivity of your league haha, so I guess it is a really tough thing to debate.

I'm sure it's still a thing to some extent, but has been thrown off the past few years by some incredible young WRs making noise early in their careers; but for a long time all you heard/read about was 3rd year WR breakout. So I still tend to try to give at least 1st round picks time to marinate unless they just look like crap on the field. Lower draft capital guys I'm much more likely to flip off a high run, or conversely sell if it looks like price is gonna nosedive. Of course I also held onto DeVante Parker up until this past season when I could finally trade him for something of substance, so my process is obviously flawed as well lol.

[Gator Sens]

I need to get caught up on this deep feed! Looks like a live one.