2021 Running Back Report

[Pullo Vision]

Appreciate the perspective, DD! Don't know if I've seen anyone so enthusiastic about Javonte, especially with him getting labeled a flash in the pan. Can you explain the apparent conflict?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Oh, I forgot to mention. With the NFL transitioning to a 17 game schedule, obviously the 1k rushing yard benchmark becomes an issue. The best solution I came up with so far is a RB has to clear 1k yards with at least a 62.5 ypg average (the avg yards it would take to hit 1k yards in a 16 game season).

I remember asking you about this in one of your reports.

For example, Marlon Mack averaged 75 rushing yards his second season and 77 his third season. He missed 4 games in his second season. He would've had two 1000 yard seasons and qualified as an outlier for the minimum threshold of Tier 2 if it wasn't for injury.

It's sort of the DaVante Adams rule. Adams only has two 1000 yard receiving seasons, but has averaged the necessary receiving yards for a 1000 yard season five times. He missed out because of random injuries. So I've always wondered why the threshold wasn't yards/gm from jump (with a clear minimum games threshold).

That's something I should probably look into. I'm not sure how much it would change though, and I'm not sure how I would come up with the minimum games number. Unfortunately, staying healthy and/or playing through injuries could be considered a skill in the NFL. It was total yardage from the start for a very simple reason... it was the easiest mark to find and use as a barometer for success. And uh, Mack would not qualify as an outlier, a player would need 3 or more 1k seasons to qualify as an outlier. And it wouldn't be specific to Tier 2, it would just be... they're just an outlier. I suppose they'd be an outlier to Tier 1, if you needed specificity. The 1-2 1k seasons for Tier 2 players was supposed to be more from a floor perspective, not a ceiling perspective. I hope that makes sense.

Appreciate the perspective, DD! Don't know if I've seen anyone so enthusiastic about Javonte, especially with him getting labeled a flash in the pan. Can you explain the apparent conflict?

Well, the entire reason I started the rb report (the numerical analysis part) was because it almost seemed impossible to tell which players would be studs and which wouldn't. I got tired of going all in on players such as Gio Bernard for example, only to watch them fall flat on their face the next season. So having some sort of conflict between film and a numbers analysis is the entire reason I started this. I was low on Henry's film and he turned out great, and I was high on Rojo's film and he turned out not so great. So to certain extent, a disparity between the two areas (film and numbers) is almost to be expected. It's pretty rare when you get can't-miss profile's on both fronts, such as a Saquon, JT, Fournette or Zeke, for example.

[Cameron Giles]

Oh, I forgot to mention. With the NFL transitioning to a 17 game schedule, obviously the 1k rushing yard benchmark becomes an issue. The best solution I came up with so far is a RB has to clear 1k yards with at least a 62.5 ypg average (the avg yards it would take to hit 1k yards in a 16 game season).

I remember asking you about this in one of your reports.

For example, Marlon Mack averaged 75 rushing yards his second season and 77 his third season. He missed 4 games in his second season. He would've had two 1000 yard seasons and qualified as an outlier for the minimum threshold of Tier 2 if it wasn't for injury.

It's sort of the DaVante Adams rule. Adams only has two 1000 yard receiving seasons, but has averaged the necessary receiving yards for a 1000 yard season five times. He missed out because of random injuries. So I've always wondered why the threshold wasn't yards/gm from jump (with a clear minimum games threshold).

That's something I should probably look into. I'm not sure how much it would change though, and I'm not sure how I would come up with the minimum games number. Unfortunately, staying healthy and/or playing through injuries could be considered a skill in the NFL. It was total yardage from the start for a very simple reason... it was the easiest mark to find and use as a barometer for success. And uh, Mack would not qualify as an outlier, a player would need 3 or more 1k seasons to qualify as an outlier. And it wouldn't be specific to Tier 2, it would just be... they're just an outlier. I suppose they'd be an outlier to Tier 1, if you needed specificity. The 1-2 1k seasons for Tier 2 players was supposed to be more from a floor perspective, not a ceiling perspective. I hope that makes sense.

Appreciate the perspective, DD! Don't know if I've seen anyone so enthusiastic about Javonte, especially with him getting labeled a flash in the pan. Can you explain the apparent conflict?

Well, the entire reason I started the rb report (the numerical analysis part) was because it almost seemed impossible to tell which players would be studs and which wouldn't. I got tired of going all in on players such as Gio Bernard for example, only to watch them fall flat on their face the next season. So having some sort of conflict between film and a numbers analysis is the entire reason I started this. I was low on Henry's film and he turned out great, and I was high on Rojo's film and he turned out not so great. So to some extent a disparity between the two areas (film and numbers) is almost to be expected.

That makes sense.

I'm not sure I agree that avoiding injury in the NFL is a skill though when you factor in non-contact injuries, hamstrings, and concussions from illegal hits. A lot of it just comes down to luck.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I'm not sure I agree that avoiding injury in the NFL is a skill though when you factor in non-contact injuries, hamstrings, and concussions from illegal hits. A lot of it just comes down to luck.

I totally agree. There is unfortunately a lot of luck involved. That said, I think in the long-run it typically works itself out. But I will look into the YPG idea.

[Bronco Billy]

Don't know if I've seen anyone so enthusiastic about Javonte,

[MEuRaH]

I expected to see Etienne be added to that CMC list. A little shocked he isn't.

I read everything and as far as these years of reports go, it's pretty much the one I agree with the most. Kudos.

[Bot101]

Thanks for the report DD! Great read as always.

[JTLoh]

I'm still waiting for D'onta Foreman to pay dividends. Thanks alot!

[nathanq42]

I'm still waiting for D'onta Foreman to pay dividends. Thanks alot!

To be fair that is likely the cause of a catastrophic injury to his Achilles tendon

[JTLoh]

I'm still waiting for D'onta Foreman to pay dividends. Thanks alot!

To be fair that is likely the cause of a catastrophic injury to his Achilles tendon

True. And the Texans shitty front office.

[henry1jg]

Excellent work! One of my favorite things to read here! Thank you!

[Orenthal Shames]

Solid writeups as always DD. My only critique is the neon green text color. It's melting my eyeballs.

[Patsfan86]

I see Gibson isnt in any of these, is that just impossible for you to do because he played so little at RB in college?

[jman3134]

Thank you for your work here.

[Bot101]

I see Gibson isnt in any of these, is that just impossible for you to do because he played so little at RB in college?

Well.... he didnt play RB in college, so that may have something to do with it