Julio Jones Thread: Traded to Tennessee

[ekassor]

With regard to Nicks, I will say that I saw every Giants game last year and its readily apparent that Eli looks for him to post up on the goal line and Nicks is right there every time.

[Chris_R]

With regard to Nicks, I will say that I saw every Giants game last year and its readily apparent that Eli looks for him to post up on the goal line and Nicks is right there every time.

We'll you've kinda lost me with your train of thought here, so we'll just agree to disagree I guess

[tstafford]

I fully expect to be in the minority here, but is the overall consensus to everyone here AJ is better? I've always had Julio as a better prospect, and the pick I traded for that ended up 1.01 I intend on using to take him 1st, which would be the 1st draft I've seen it happen(I'd love 2 move back a spot or 2 but that's risky sometimes. Maybe if 1.03 wants to overpay and needs Ingram).


That said, Julio has always been more explosive to me when I watch both guys, stronger, bigger, faster, and has just as big of a catch radius. Julio always comes down with balls that he has no business catching. The 1 knock I get is that he drops the easy ones, that he does do, but so did TO, so does Brandon Marshall still. Julio is gonna be a YAC monster and destroy ppr leagues, as to me AJ is gonna rely more on the deep ball, and a QB who can get him the ball deep.


If were talking strictly ceiling, I think Julio has a bigger one. He seems like the type of dominate with whoever is throwing him the ball, let alone that he has Matt Ryan to catch passes from for his career and we still don't know when AJ will have a QB. If were looking at who is more likely to reach their ceiling, the situation does have alot to play into it, especially when were talking about a WR who has to more or less rely on what's around him.


Julio doesn't have to step into a situation taking on #1 DB's and double coverage right away, or really for a few years. He's not expected to carry the offense, his transition will be smooth and seamless as he can grow into his role even though he's good enough to be that type of guy right now. Everything I've ever heard about him since going to Bama is that he's an extremely hard worker, and wants to be one of the best, there just isn't much to not like about him.


I know I always go talent>situation for me in dynasty, but AJ was never more talented to me, and his situation is an attrocity compared to the one for Julio. I think those taking AJ over him are gonna end up regretting it in the long run, and I''m just wondering if anyone here has the galls to rank Julio>AJ or if I'm just crazy

Good post. And welcome to the board.

You make some interesting points. And while you are in the minority on this one, I don't think you are completely alone. I've seen a number of posts of people saying they plan to (or did) take Julio ahead of AJ Green.

My two cents: I think AJ Green is an elite talent. I think he is a special player who can make catches than others can't, seems to have a solid attitude and by all accounts is a hard worker. Living in Nashville, I've seen my fair share of Alabama and Georgia games and both players are amazing. Green just seems to have an extra edge that I believe will make him a great player in the NFL. Julio will be solid as well but I tend to agree with the comparisons to Boldin. But let's face it, if you drafted Boldin as a rookie would you be disappointed? I think AJ Green has the talent to be a top five NFL WR.

FWIW: Julio may well be the safer pick. I simply don't see how Julio can fail to give at least some degree of production. His situation really couldn't be any better. Similar to Dez going to Dallas last year. To me, this is the strongest pro-Julio argument but not one that most people seem to make. Dynasty is about the long haul, of course, but near term production should factor heavily in valuing a player (especially comparing two players). If, as rookies, Julio puts up low end WR2 numbers and AJ Green can't be used as a bye-week fill in at all this year, I think the value argument tips toward Julio. IMO they will put up closer numbers than most people think. I recognize that AJ Green's situation is bad (generally that's the case when you are picked so highly in the draft). But if he gets 125+ targets (which I think he will) he's bound to produce some fantasy value. That said, I can see counter arguments to that. And that's why I'm willing to concede that Julio might be safer.

For me, the choice is Green because I want that super high ceiling. But I couldn't fault someone for taking Julio. Now don't get me started on Daniel Thomas. . .

[MR ROURKE]

Green is clearly a better talent and prospect to me. However, I don't think Dalton is a starting QB in the NFL, so that should stall AJ Green's production. J.Jones clearly went to a better situation to develope and will likely produce early better then AJ Green. If Atlanta was able to trade up for Greene as they first tried and J.Jones went the Cinncy, I think J.Jones wouldn't have anywhere near the support he currently does. I don't like to draft situation over talent, because situation changes.... sometimes drastically. J.Jones might run a really quick forty, but he doesn't play anywhere near that fast.

[DyeNasty]

This has been the an argument going all the way back to when they were in high school. I think talent wise its pretty much a wash and it all comes down to work put in, situation, and nfl toughness for who well be better. The ceilings are the same cuz they both can potentially be a top 5wr just who will get there sooner and stay there.

One thing I've seen a lot of on here about AJ is people contradicting themselves to hedge their argument. Everyone is already putting him on a pedestal next to the Johnson boys before he even touches the field. Then the next breath say his situation is bad and and that's the only reason he may not reach his potential or not as soon. People seem to forget calvin and andre had terrible situations, but have always rose above the competition and put up spectacular numbers, and neither have ever had a real viable number 2 to take the pressure off. So if you wanna anoint him already at least stand behind your argument and don't use the situation insurance just incase you are wrong.

[MR ROURKE]

One thing I've seen a lot of on here about AJ is people contradicting themselves to hedge their argument. Everyone is already putting him on a pedestal next to the Johnson boys before he even touches the field. Then the next breath say his situation is bad and and that's the only reason he may not reach his potential or not as soon. People seem to forget calvin and andre had terrible situations, but have always rose above the competition and put up spectacular numbers, and neither have ever had a real viable number 2 to take the pressure off. So if you wanna anoint him already at least stand behind your argument and don't use the situation insurance just incase you are wrong.

A player can be a better prospect then their situation allows to be. It's an age old questions of talent verses situation. You think David Carr helped A.Johnson develope quickly or held him back some? Don't you think that if A.Johnson would have had a top 10 QB throwing to him that he would have produced quicker?

[DyeNasty]

Andre was no slouch even early on. sure he wasn't dropping 1500 yard seasons but he put up respectable numbers for his situation and so early in a receivers career.

[tstafford]

This has been the an argument going all the way back to when they were in high school. I think talent wise its pretty much a wash and it all comes down to work put in, situation, and nfl toughness for who well be better. The ceilings are the same cuz they both can potentially be a top 5wr just who will get there sooner and stay there.

One thing I've seen a lot of on here about AJ is people contradicting themselves to hedge their argument. Everyone is already putting him on a pedestal next to the Johnson boys before he even touches the field. Then the next breath say his situation is bad and and that's the only reason he may not reach his potential or not as soon. People seem to forget calvin and andre had terrible situations, but have always rose above the competition and put up spectacular numbers, and neither have ever had a real viable number 2 to take the pressure off. So if you wanna anoint him already at least stand behind your argument and don't use the situation insurance just incase you are wrong.

So what exactly is your position that you're willing to stand behind? I've given you mine - I prefer AJ Green due to the higher ceiling and I'm willing to take the risks associated with his situation and invest the time it will take for him to emerge. Seems your position is that they are both really good. Talk about an insurance policy!

[DyeNasty]

I posted on the first page, go look, I think jones will be better. I also posted in another thread that I think jones and little will have better careers then green.

[MR ROURKE]

Andre was no slouch even early on. sure he wasn't dropping 1500 yard seasons but he put up respectable numbers for his situation and so early in a receivers career.

So you agree that situation can effect a players value and there is no reason someone can't think that AJ Green is a better talent then J.Jones, but that his situation could hold him back.

[tstafford]

I posted on the first page, go look, I think jones will be better. I also posted in another thread that I think jones and little will have better careers then green.

Fair enough. I disagree. But that's fine too.

[DyeNasty]

Andre was no slouch even early on. sure he wasn't dropping 1500 yard seasons but he put up respectable numbers for his situation and so early in a receivers career.

So you agree that situation can effect a players value and there is no reason someone can't think that AJ Green is a better talent then J.Jones, but that his situation could hold him back.

Situation can effect a lot of people positively and negatively. Actually what I was saying is even with his bad situation he put up solid numbers. For a rookie wideout on an expansion team to put up almost 1k yards and 4tds I would say his talent rose above his situation. Not many rookie receivers do that in good situations.

[DynastyKing]

However, I don't think Dalton is a starting QB in the NFL, so that should stall AJ Green's production. J.Jones clearly went to a better situation to develope and will likely produce early better then AJ Green. If Atlanta was able to trade up for Greene as they first tried and J.Jones went the Cinncy, I think J.Jones wouldn't have anywhere near the support he currently does. I don't like to draft situation over talent, because situation changes.... sometimes drastically. J.Jones might run a really quick forty, but he doesn't play anywhere near that fast.

I'd like to focus on this point. Granted Carson Palmer is now a shell of his former self, but the Bengals wound up with the 4th pick in the draft with him starting at QB. Do we really expect that record to improve with a rookie Andy Dalton behind center?

-- No one can predict the future, but is the following scenario really that far-fetched? --

If Dalton plays as poorly as his detractors expect, then Cincy will probably be picking in the top 3 in next year's draft. If they get the #1 pick, Andrew Luck comes to town and instantly puts Green in one of the best situations in fantasy. Even if they have to settle for Matt Barkley, Green's dynasty prospects would grow dramatically.

[MR ROURKE]

However, I don't think Dalton is a starting QB in the NFL, so that should stall AJ Green's production. J.Jones clearly went to a better situation to develope and will likely produce early better then AJ Green. If Atlanta was able to trade up for Greene as they first tried and J.Jones went the Cinncy, I think J.Jones wouldn't have anywhere near the support he currently does. I don't like to draft situation over talent, because situation changes.... sometimes drastically. J.Jones might run a really quick forty, but he doesn't play anywhere near that fast.

I'd like to focus on this point. Granted Carson Palmer is now a shell of his former self, but the Bengals wound up with the 4th pick in the draft with him starting at QB. Do we really expect that record to improve with a rookie Andy Dalton behind center?

-- No one can predict the future, but is the following scenario really that far-fetched? --

If Dalton plays as poorly as his detractors expect, then Cincy will probably be picking in the top 3 in next year's draft. If they get the #1 pick, Andrew Luck comes to town and instantly puts Green in one of the best situations in fantasy. Even if they have to settle for Matt Barkley, Green's dynasty prospects would grow dramatically.

Hence the bolded and underlined area.

Draft talent because situation changes. AJ Green could have A.Luck throwing to him. If A.Luck doesn't fall apart in his last season as a college QB, which is possible even though everyone is alrady in love with him.

[JohnnyFive]

I think that both receievers have the talent to be top 10 and one of them will crack into the top 3 eventually. Personally I like Julio over Green but its very close. I see Julio eventually overtaking White much like Wayne did to Harrison. And yes I like Julio in the situation he is in already building a relationship with Matty Ice. However, picking Julio over AJ Green has nothing to do with situation because Green will overcome that, I just like Julio's Freakish ability and he won me over with his combine. Its a win/win draft pick with either guy.