Patrick Mahomes: The Best QB in the NFL & for Dynasty

[jordanzs]

There will be years when Mahomes is touchable. It always happens. I would just let the owner owner enjoy him & then trade for him in another year.

I remember when Rodgers & Peyton were untouchable. Pockets of opportunity will reveal themselves. Maybe in 2026 or so

[ArrylT]

Mahomes recorded his 40th win today in his 50th career start, tying HOFer Ken Stabler for the most wins (40) in his first 50 career starts since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

[Pullo Vision]

Compared to previous performances, Mahomes is underperforming this year. Just saw an interesting stat, I imagine there's a tweet out there fleshing this out-

This year against 0-1 safeties- 79% completion, 85 QBR, 10-1 TD-INT, 6 off target throws
Against 2 or more safeties- 65%, 60 QBR, 8-8 TD-INT, 34 off target throws
Opponents play two or more safeties at highest rare of drop backs, 81%.
Would be nice to have total number of attempts for each safety look, but still interesting.

[Pullo Vision]

Various QBs are performing below fantasy expectations this year. One reason I've seen mentioned is because teams are playing more two high safety against some big play offenses like KC and Buffalo. I heard/read a piece a few weeks ago that those QBs are big play hunting every snap and unwilling to take shorter plays that can be very effective against a Cover 2.

Both Mahomes and Allen have 2nd rate run games and backfields, in terms of production. The CEH thread here has various comments remarking on how they don't run more passes to Edwards-Helaire like screens to feature one of his strengths. If it's really the case that the QB/scheme/staff is big-play hunting and forsaking shorter gains for big explosive plays downfield, then I'm worried about the fantasy value of some of these players.

I'm always buy low hunting, but I don't know if you'd see the same tendencies even if you stuck a prime-years Peterson, or a this-year Najee/Ekeler, on the KC/BUF offense. If you can neutralize their deep passing game with Cover Two and the QBs are unwilling to exploit the short-area weaknesses of that look, I don't even know if Mahomes/Allen might be showing their new floor and ceiling, making them "buy-low" no-gos.

Fwiw, another way I've read to attack Cover 2 is with trips to one side, but KC's WR depth issues are relevant here.

Some reads on attacking Cover Two-
http://insidethepylon.com/film-study/fi ... t-cover-2/
https://www.bigblueview.com/platform/am ... to-beat-it

[Jigga94]

I've heard a lot of bad Mahomes news this season. All I can say is that, if QB6 is a terrible year for him, I can't wait for the next several years of him on my roster. I rarely look more than 2-3 years down the line but with QBs, when you know, you know.

That said, plenty of other QB have put themselves into the QB1 conversation.

[Pullo Vision]

I've heard a lot of bad Mahomes news this season. All I can say is that, if QB6 is a terrible year for him, I can't wait for the next several years of him on my roster. I rarely look more than 2-3 years down the line but with QBs, when you know, you know.

That said, plenty of other QB have put themselves into the QB1 conversation.

Absolutely. But, he's shown a lower floor this year and I'd wager his fantasy (trade) value is no longer aligned with his production. Why pay the iron price when you can pay less for a similar any-week floor/ceiling combo?

If that's true, that makes it sound like he's a sell on name value, flip for a similar floor/ceiling and pocket/flip the profit.

[RheinlandChief]

Chiefs have one of the most drop rates in the NFL this year.
Kelce and Hill still are very good but behind that there is literally no one. Many of Mahomes INT were because of the receivers (not all though).
Chiefs have a good O-Line and Mahomes maybe scrambles more than he would have too.

It's not a SO good year for him but he still is a great QB.

[Jigga94]

I've heard a lot of bad Mahomes news this season. All I can say is that, if QB6 is a terrible year for him, I can't wait for the next several years of him on my roster. I rarely look more than 2-3 years down the line but with QBs, when you know, you know.

That said, plenty of other QB have put themselves into the QB1 conversation.

Absolutely. But, he's shown a lower floor this year and I'd wager his fantasy (trade) value is no longer aligned with his production. Why pay the iron price when you can pay less for a similar any-week floor/ceiling combo?

If that's true, that makes it sound like he's a sell on name value, flip for a similar floor/ceiling and pocket/flip the profit.

If you're saying I can get Herbert or Allen + a good prospect or mid 1st or something, then yeah of course I'd do that. But I think with all the negative press on Mahomes this year, that I'd have to be giving the 1st to move up to get Allen lol

[Pac_Eddy]

All I can say is that, if QB6 is a terrible year for him, I can't wait for the next several years of him on my roster.

This is my thought. I traded for him two years ago and this is why. His bad year is still pretty damn good compared to other QBs.

I do look longer than three years in the future, and it might be the best time to buy on Mahomes in the next few seasons.

[thebeast]

Eh, he's always been overvalued in the fantasy community. He is a gunslinger like Favre was. He often throws passes that he shouldn't, and the first two years they virtually always worked out for him leaving everyone awestruck. This year those same types of passes are being picked off far more frequently. He is still a very good QB, but no longer a super positional advantage over the rest of the top tier qbs.

[Space Cowboy]

His lack of weapons is a little concerning, but the play calling has been bad, there's no run game and the defense left him in terrible positions for 2 months there.

It's not all off his shoulders though, cover 2 is pretty easy to beat if you're patient, which he is not.

[FantasyFreak]

I've heard a lot of bad Mahomes news this season. All I can say is that, if QB6 is a terrible year for him, I can't wait for the next several years of him on my roster. I rarely look more than 2-3 years down the line but with QBs, when you know, you know.

That said, plenty of other QB have put themselves into the QB1 conversation.

The thing is, his rookie deal is about to be up. We haven't seen how his contract will affect the team building aspect for Mahomes yet. It obviously won't help his cause.

[yinzername]

I've heard a lot of bad Mahomes news this season. All I can say is that, if QB6 is a terrible year for him, I can't wait for the next several years of him on my roster. I rarely look more than 2-3 years down the line but with QBs, when you know, you know.

That said, plenty of other QB have put themselves into the QB1 conversation.

Totally came here to say “something something QB6…”

[Cameron Giles]

A lot of QBs have struggled with the Cover-2 shell looks this season: Buffalo, KC, Tampa Bay at times. It's why Chris Godwin had like 15 receptions the other day and low aDOT routes.

Teams like KC and Buffalo need to invest in a more consistent running attack, otherwise teams will continue to play that shell and cut off the big plays.

Mahomes will be fine long-term.

[Space Cowboy]

I've heard a lot of bad Mahomes news this season. All I can say is that, if QB6 is a terrible year for him, I can't wait for the next several years of him on my roster. I rarely look more than 2-3 years down the line but with QBs, when you know, you know.

That said, plenty of other QB have put themselves into the QB1 conversation.

Totally came here to say “something something QB6…”

The problem ppl are getting at is aside from the 5 TD game he has barely been breaking 10 points a week.

I have no worries long term but he might cost me a championship.