Tim Tebow Thread: To the Jags TE Convert

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49ersFaithful80
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Re: Tim Tebow

Postby 49ersFaithful80 » Fri Feb 04, 2011 1:22 pm

pntgvn2399 wrote:
49ersFaithful80 wrote:
pntgvn2399 wrote:I went through the 3 games on ESPN under play by play and it has a description of each pass.. That page you have posted there though made it a lot easier haha.. Of his 82 pass attempts 68 were from 0-20 yards while 14 of those further than 20 yards.. So in other words 83% of his passes were under 20 yards.. Also almost half (49%) were between 0-10 yards.. In any case ill leave it at that and revisit it in a year and where it stands then.. :thumbup:

Edit: Where on earth did you get those numbers to make 55%? He was 40 for 81 as a starter with a completion percentage of 49.4%.
Your really trying to fathom some kind evidence to these "little short passes", YPA IS the way experts judge a QB on what kind of passes they are making. Tebow had an excellent YPA and thus it is a fact that he often makes completions down field. HIs average completion was for 16 yards...does that seem like someone who throws lots of "little short passes"?? apparently every QB in the NFL besides Rodgers and Rivers throw tons of little short passes then.

...or just watch the highlights I posted, and you will witness with your eyes his multitude of mid to deep range completions, there are plenty of areas you can critique Tebow but him being a captain checkdown is not valid.
Say what you want about YPA however that does not in any way show how many times they throw the ball deep downfield.. In NO way.. Here is an example.. You have a QB that checks down to his RB and he completes 5 of 10 passes for 80 yards, right there you have a YPA at 8 and a YPC at 16, which are Tebow's numbers.. So you are telling me that because of those numbers that QB really didn't throw just screen passes, even though everyone would have watched him do so with their own eyes??

Say what you want about the YPA and use it to determine that he throws the ball down the field, however how can you sit here and argue against the stats? 68 of his 82 passes were under 20 yards (83%).. And 49% of all his passes were less than 10 yards.. I am sorry but if you are going to say that he throws all these deep passes and does it so well at least have something to back it up and not a highlight film showing some throws.. 49% completions, if he is magically throwing the ball downfield more and all these sites have their numbers wrong, then maybe he should rethink doing it and try to get above 50% next year?? Who was arguably the worst QB in the NFL last year? Jimmy Clausen? Even he had a 52% completion percentage if that says anything.

Go back and look at what I posted, I am not sure how you can continue to argue about factual stats.

How exactly can you explain the fact that his average completion was 16 yards if hes throwing tons of little short passes...hes checking down every play but averaging 16 a completion...? doesn't add up to me. All the stats and video evidence point towards Tebow throwing the ball down field, watch the video you can probably count 20 mid-deep range completions right there.

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Re: Tim Tebow

Postby Biggcmo » Fri Feb 04, 2011 3:28 pm

Im a tebow supporter..But we only have a 3 game sample size to evaluate him as a pro quaterback..So i dont think its fair to look at his numbers and determine off of those 3 games if he is gonna be good or bad. Tebow has a tremendous work ethic and I honestly feel that with work he can develop into a quality QB.
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Re: Tim Tebow

Postby dlf_ericd » Fri Feb 04, 2011 3:40 pm

pntgvn2399 wrote:I went through the 3 games on ESPN under play by play and it has a description of each pass.. That page you have posted there though made it a lot easier haha.. Of his 82 pass attempts 68 were from 0-20 yards while 14 of those further than 20 yards.. So in other words 83% of his passes were under 20 yards.. Also almost half (49%) were between 0-10 yards.. In any case ill leave it at that and revisit it in a year and where it stands then.. :thumbup:

Edit: Where on earth did you get those numbers to make 55%? He was 40 for 81 as a starter with a completion percentage of 49.4%.
My bad on the edit from the previous post...not sure where I saw 55%, but you are correct in the 40 for 81 as a starter.
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Re: Tim Tebow

Postby Misfit74 » Fri Feb 04, 2011 9:15 pm

pntgvn2399 wrote:
airlex wrote:I think it's fairly easy to look at a guy like Tebow that had so much success on a college level and as popular as he is, and form a very strong opinion one way or the other. The people I want to hear from are the ones that have changed their minds since he was drafted...there's been quite a few "experts" that have changed their opinion about him as an NFL QB after seeing him on the field.

Here's my take: I voted "good" because I think whatever deficiencies he has with his release, arm, whatever, he makes up for with scrambling ability. From the few games I saw with him as the starter, I saw a ton of potential and the ability to make all the NFL throws. If you look at the game where Lloyd caught the "wobbler" in the end zone, you'd also see the bullet that Lance Ball dropped in the end zone that hit him in the numbers.

I know someone said he was completing "short little passes" and struggled on the long ones, but I would disagree. If you look at his average yds per attempt and average yds per completion they compare favorably with guys like Brees, Schaub, Brady, Manning, etc.

Tebow - Y/A 8.0, Y/C 16.0
Brees - Y/A 7.0, Y/C 10.3
Schaub - Y/A 7.6, Y/C 12.0
Brady - Y/A 7.9, Y/C 12.9
Manning - Y/A 6.9, Y/C 10.4

Even in limited action, those don't look like stats from someone dinking and dunking their way down the field. There's plenty technique-wise to criticize Tebow for, but that wasn't accurate. I think the statement that he doesn't have the ability to complete 60% of his passes is crazy too. I'm not saying he will for sure, but if you compare his college stats of 66% completion percentage to others from the SEC, he compares favorably there too.

Tebow - 66.4
Peyton Manning - 62.5
Eli Manning - 60.8
Jay Cutler - 57.2
Matt Stafford - 57.1
Jason Campbell - 64.6

Hmm, interesting huh? If you look at the player individually and not have pre-conceived ideas of him, it helps give a more true picture of reality.
Come on now.. You are comparing a guy that played in 3 games with guys that played the whole season.. Also not to start an argument on this but are you really bringing up college stats in regard to completion percentage?? Just because they have a good average in college DOES NOT mean that will be the case in the NFL at all.. I can make a list of 100's of guys that had great percentages in college that had no success in the NFL.. Lets see what he does the whole year (if he is even the starter!!) then come back and compare.. He may have had a 66% in college however in the NFL (where it matters) he is sitting at 49%..
Completion percentage in college is widely regarded as the single most valuable statistic used to forecast a QBs future NFL success or failure. Here is an excerpt from the creator of the Lewin Career Forecast:

"By David Lewin
Football Outsiders.com
There are plenty of numbers bandied about at NFL draft time -- 40-yard dash times, bench press reps, vertical jump heights and even Wonderlic test results.

All are familiar to most NFL fans. And yet, we rarely hear experts mention a player's college statistics. Most fans assume college stats are not accurate predictors of NFL performance.

That's not always the case. My research of highly drafted quarterbacks since 1996 found that two college statistics adequately predict future NFL performance: games started and completion percentage. In fact, where a quarterback is selected in the draft has virtually no bearing on his NFL success. Games started and completion percentage are far better than the scouts at determining how good a player will be.
"


So, if Airlex was making an argument for completion percentage he was making a good one. ;)
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Re: Tim Tebow

Postby MonkeyOne » Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:11 am

Great info there Misfit.

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Re: Tim Tebow

Postby dlf_ericd » Sat Feb 05, 2011 11:39 am

Misfit74 wrote:
pntgvn2399 wrote:
airlex wrote:I think it's fairly easy to look at a guy like Tebow that had so much success on a college level and as popular as he is, and form a very strong opinion one way or the other. The people I want to hear from are the ones that have changed their minds since he was drafted...there's been quite a few "experts" that have changed their opinion about him as an NFL QB after seeing him on the field.

Here's my take: I voted "good" because I think whatever deficiencies he has with his release, arm, whatever, he makes up for with scrambling ability. From the few games I saw with him as the starter, I saw a ton of potential and the ability to make all the NFL throws. If you look at the game where Lloyd caught the "wobbler" in the end zone, you'd also see the bullet that Lance Ball dropped in the end zone that hit him in the numbers.

I know someone said he was completing "short little passes" and struggled on the long ones, but I would disagree. If you look at his average yds per attempt and average yds per completion they compare favorably with guys like Brees, Schaub, Brady, Manning, etc.

Tebow - Y/A 8.0, Y/C 16.0
Brees - Y/A 7.0, Y/C 10.3
Schaub - Y/A 7.6, Y/C 12.0
Brady - Y/A 7.9, Y/C 12.9
Manning - Y/A 6.9, Y/C 10.4

Even in limited action, those don't look like stats from someone dinking and dunking their way down the field. There's plenty technique-wise to criticize Tebow for, but that wasn't accurate. I think the statement that he doesn't have the ability to complete 60% of his passes is crazy too. I'm not saying he will for sure, but if you compare his college stats of 66% completion percentage to others from the SEC, he compares favorably there too.

Tebow - 66.4
Peyton Manning - 62.5
Eli Manning - 60.8
Jay Cutler - 57.2
Matt Stafford - 57.1
Jason Campbell - 64.6

Hmm, interesting huh? If you look at the player individually and not have pre-conceived ideas of him, it helps give a more true picture of reality.
Come on now.. You are comparing a guy that played in 3 games with guys that played the whole season.. Also not to start an argument on this but are you really bringing up college stats in regard to completion percentage?? Just because they have a good average in college DOES NOT mean that will be the case in the NFL at all.. I can make a list of 100's of guys that had great percentages in college that had no success in the NFL.. Lets see what he does the whole year (if he is even the starter!!) then come back and compare.. He may have had a 66% in college however in the NFL (where it matters) he is sitting at 49%..
Completion percentage in college is widely regarded as the single most valuable statistic used to forecast a QBs future NFL success or failure. Here is an excerpt from the creator of the Lewin Career Forecast:

"By David Lewin
Football Outsiders.com
There are plenty of numbers bandied about at NFL draft time -- 40-yard dash times, bench press reps, vertical jump heights and even Wonderlic test results.

All are familiar to most NFL fans. And yet, we rarely hear experts mention a player's college statistics. Most fans assume college stats are not accurate predictors of NFL performance.

That's not always the case. My research of highly drafted quarterbacks since 1996 found that two college statistics adequately predict future NFL performance: games started and completion percentage. In fact, where a quarterback is selected in the draft has virtually no bearing on his NFL success. Games started and completion percentage are far better than the scouts at determining how good a player will be.
"


So, if Airlex was making an argument for completion percentage he was making a good one. ;)
Thanks for the info...I've never read that anywhere, but always felt like as long as the competition was good (like the SEC), it was at the very least something to look at. Appreciate it.
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Re: Tim Tebow

Postby melish1631 » Sat Feb 05, 2011 8:22 pm

Those are interesting numbers but I'm not sold on the lefthander yet! He's going to have to learn to play the position within the pocket or he'll take too many chancesand these boys hit like trucks! He's an anomaly right now...remember when Kordell came into the league? Not comparing them but when something new and different comes in to this league, it takes a few games for teams to 'get' with it...I'll reserve judgment for him until after he plays another 6-8 games

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Re: Tim Tebow

Postby pntgvn2399 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 10:57 am

Please please please don't let these guys see that information..
Tim Couch
Matt Leinart
David Carr
Jamarcus Russel
Chase Daniel
Colt Brennan
Vince Young ect ect ect ect
12 Team PPR IDP
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex 3-4-4 D
QB- P. Manning, Wilson, Carr
RB- McCoy, Foster, Ball, Vereen, Tate, Ivory, C. Michael, L Murray
WR- Megatron, Dez, Watkins, Gordon, Cooks, Quick, Nicks, Bowe, Shorts, M Wilson
TE- Cameron, Donnel, Green
DT- Jernigan
DE- Campbell, Vernon, Nincovich, Casey, Griffen
LB- David, Shazier, Smith, Tulloch, McClain, Riley, Collins, Alonzo (IR)
CB- Cason, Sherman, McCourty
S- Pollard, Landry, Chancellor, Mathieu, McDonald

12 Team PPR IDP
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex 3-4-4 D
QB- Kaepernick, Bortles
RB- Lynch, Bernard Vereen, J. Bell, Ivory, Michael, Robinson, L Murray
WR- Julio, Mi. Floyd, Crabtree, Woods, Lee, Nicks
TE- Graham, Green, Wright
DT- Joseph, Donald
DE- Quinn, C Jones, C Johnson, M Johnson, Clemons, Lawrence
LB-Worrilow, Dansby, Levy, Marshall , McClain, Bartu, Mauga, Alonzo (IR), Johnson (IR)
CB- Jospeh, Verner
S- Bethea, Jones, Blanton

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Tim Tebow- fantasy outlook for 2011

Postby 49ersFaithful80 » Mon May 02, 2011 11:31 am

I've always been a strong believer in Tebow's ability to transition to the NFL. Now that he is the favorite to start week 1 I'm curious how everyone else, nay sayers included think he will do in terms of fantasy production in 2011. Personally I've never been so "sure" of anything in my 7 odd years of playing fantasy football as I am about Tebows ability to put up significant fantasy points in 2011 and beyond. I know that I'm part of a slim minority here, but like Mike Mayock says sometimes you just have to bang the table about a prospect.

I see him as a low-end QB1 or even better in 2011

My projected statline- 2,800 passing yards, 22td-15 int, 600 yrds rushing, 10 rushing TD's

Bold, I know but I'm looking to get some outside perspective on this subject. What are your predictions/projected stat lines

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Re: Tim Tebow- fantasy outlook for 2011

Postby TreMan83 » Mon May 02, 2011 11:48 am

10 Rushing TD's????? I personally think that number is too high

The following copied from NFL.com article dated 2010

Most rushing touchdowns for a QB, single season

"If one of the top five can make it on quirkiness alone, this is it. It's tough to wrap your brain around how a quarterback scored 12 touchdowns rushing in a season, back in 1976. Consider:

a) Quarterbacks are lucky to get three in a season. Only four ran for that many in 2009, with Aaron Rodgers leading the way at a whopping five.
b) Only six running backs had at least 12 rushing touchdowns last season.
c) The guy who set the record is as mind-blowing as the record itself: Steve Grogan.

Most people remember Grogan as the Patriots quarterback with more pads than touchdown passes. The dude had a neck brace bigger than Bryan Cox's, and that's saying something. His rib pads made Shaun Hill jealous. Oh, and he wasn't fast. And yet, Grogan owns this record, and don't expect him to be knocked off anytime soon.

But in 1976, Grogan was 23 and didn't yet resemble a mummified signal-caller for the 1990 Patriots. His quick feet that season, and decent arm, led New England to an 11-3 record and playoff berth. The Patriots that year were also the only team to beat the Super Bowl-champion Raiders.

In case you're wondering, the most rushing touchdowns Michael Vick ever had in a season was eight. If Vick was a cherry-red Ferrari, consider Grogan a '79 white Pacer with wood-grain siding."
14 Team PPR 1st Year(1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 2WR/RB/TE, 1K & Def) 9
QB:Brady,Tebow
RB: DMC,Hillis,Hardesty,Jacobs,Faulk
WR: Austin,Boldin,Floyd,Harvin,D.Nelson,Clayton,D.Alexander V. Brown,T.Smith
TE: Pettigrew,Gresham

12 Team 1st Year PPR(1QB, 2-3RB, 3-4WR, 1-2TE, 1 K &DEF) 10
QB: Rivers, Flacco, Ponder
RB: Foster, Peterson, Tate, Ridley, Ogbonnaya, Lumpkin
WR: Baldwin, Benn, Cruz, Doucet, Douglas, Evans, Jacoby, James and Julio Jones, J Nelson, D. Williams
TE: Cook, Gresham, Miller

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Re: Tim Tebow- fantasy outlook for 2011

Postby Madtoker » Mon May 02, 2011 12:25 pm

Where did you hear he was the favored starter. Fox said before the combine Orton is the starter.

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Re: Tim Tebow- fantasy outlook for 2011

Postby eaglesfan » Mon May 02, 2011 12:43 pm

Madtoker wrote:Where did you hear he was the favored starter. Fox said before the combine Orton is the starter.

Elway just reported they are going with Tebow earlier today or last night.
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Re: Tim Tebow- fantasy outlook for 2011

Postby Madtoker » Mon May 02, 2011 1:14 pm

eaglesfan wrote:
Madtoker wrote:Where did you hear he was the favored starter. Fox said before the combine Orton is the starter.

Elway just reported they are going with Tebow earlier today or last night.
Ah Ok!!

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Re: Tim Tebow- fantasy outlook for 2011

Postby Madtoker » Mon May 02, 2011 1:17 pm

I just read the article and it doesn't say anything about him being the starter. He says it could happen.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... -starter/1

"The Broncos declared that veteran Kyle Orton would be the starter, but Tebow said this month he intends to challenge for the position."

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Re: Tim Tebow- fantasy outlook for 2011

Postby eaglesfan » Mon May 02, 2011 1:30 pm

Madtoker wrote:I just read the article and it doesn't say anything about him being the starter. He says it could happen.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... -starter/1

"The Broncos declared that veteran Kyle Orton would be the starter, but Tebow said this month he intends to challenge for the position."

http://twitter.com/#!/Rotoworld_FB/stat ... 2656238594
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