Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
AussieMate
Player of the Year
Player of the Year
Posts: 2091
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2016 3:58 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby AussieMate » Sun May 09, 2021 3:55 pm

I don't think I'd compare either of them at all, Dalvin I think is a more natural pass catcher and has far better lateral movements (3-cone be damned), whilst ETN is far superior in straight line speed and I believe looser hips (maybe), their contact balance is comparable.
Najee and Fournette are nothing alike except maybe size, Najee more a dancer with far better hands whilst Fournette a harder straight line runner (at least coming out of college he was) with much better speed, I'd be shocked if Najee ran under a 4.6 and think him skipping the 40 even with the benefit of pro day numbers makes me believe he was running in a range that might hurt his draft capital.

Also in all my drafts it went 1.01 Fournette, 1.02 CMAC, 1.03/1.04 Cook/Mixon interchanging (I took Mixon in most of those hahaha :wall: )

User avatar
Vcize
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3666
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 4:30 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby Vcize » Sun May 09, 2021 4:30 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 11:55 am If Harris ran a 4.5 I’d be tripping over myself to draft him... but he dodged all measurements while having suspt athleticism on tape.

Of his 47 runs of 10 yards or more in 2020 his average depth of first contact was 10.6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and only 8 of those runs resulted in a gain of 20 yards or more.
How do these numbers compare to other prospects?

Not to be critical but it can sometimes be misleading when numbers like these get provided without any context. We as readers have no idea if that's good, bad, or completely average.

I'm thinking back to the notorious "if you remove Melvin Gordon's short yardage carries his YPC is amazing" podcast a few years back where everyone was fawning over Gordon. That is until someone finally ran the comparison on the rest of the league's RBs and it turned out Gordon's YPC was even further below the average in the short-yardage-removed data set than he was in the data set that included all carries.

I'm not saying that's the case here, but what are the average depth of first contact in 2020 on runs ETN or Williams had of 10+ yards? I would imagine it's pretty normal for that number to be large since most plays where a guy is contacted early don't go very far after forward momentum is slowed even if he breaks the tackle.

Just anecdotally when I watch ETN's highlights I see a very little contact in most of his long runs. I would be surprised if his number is much lower.
12 Team FFPC TE Premium
QB: Herbert, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Jav Williams, Pierce, Drake
WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
TE: Kittle, Goedert

Sriracha
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3698
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby Sriracha » Sun May 09, 2021 5:19 pm

Vcize wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 4:30 pm
Sriracha wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 11:55 am If Harris ran a 4.5 I’d be tripping over myself to draft him... but he dodged all measurements while having suspt athleticism on tape.

Of his 47 runs of 10 yards or more in 2020 his average depth of first contact was 10.6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and only 8 of those runs resulted in a gain of 20 yards or more.
How do these numbers compare to other prospects?

Not to be critical but it can sometimes be misleading when numbers like these get provided without any context. We as readers have no idea if that's good, bad, or completely average.

I'm thinking back to the notorious "if you remove Melvin Gordon's short yardage carries his YPC is amazing" podcast a few years back where everyone was fawning over Gordon. That is until someone finally ran the comparison on the rest of the league's RBs and it turned out Gordon's YPC was even further below the average in the short-yardage-removed data set than he was in the data set that included all carries.

I'm not saying that's the case here, but what are the average depth of first contact in 2020 on runs ETN or Williams had of 10+ yards? I would imagine it's pretty normal for that number to be large since most plays where a guy is contacted early don't go very far after forward momentum is slowed even if he breaks the tackle.

Just anecdotally when I watch ETN's highlights I see a very little contact in most of his long runs. I would be surprised if his number is much lower.
ETN had 27 rushes of 10+ yards in 2020 with 7 of those 27 going for 20+ yards. His average depth of first contact was 7.19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

ETN came in # 2 in the class with an 8% 20+ yard run rate and finished with by far the highest number of 20+ yard runs in the class with 55 for his career.

Cameron Giles
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 14243
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun May 09, 2021 5:40 pm

Fournette was drafted in the range that all-time RB prospects usually go (Top 5). I think people thought Fournette could be an Adrian Peterson-type of talent.

Neither Najee or Etienne is close to that. I think they are both good, but not great backs and will settle into that tier in the NFL. Doesn't mean they can't have RB1 seasons, because they can, but I don't see either as special.

And like someone else mentioned, I'm still curious as to why Harris didn't run the 40 at his pro day. Given that pro day times are usually faster, I'm guessing he would've ran a number that could've lost him money.

User avatar
Mike11
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1392
Joined: Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:45 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby Mike11 » Mon May 10, 2021 7:37 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 5:40 pm Fournette was drafted in the range that all-time RB prospects usually go (Top 5). I think people thought Fournette could be an Adrian Peterson-type of talent.

Neither Najee or Etienne is close to that. I think they are both good, but not great backs and will settle into that tier in the NFL. Doesn't mean they can't have RB1 seasons, because they can, but I don't see either as special.

And like someone else mentioned, I'm still curious as to why Harris didn't run the 40 at his pro day. Given that pro day times are usually faster, I'm guessing he would've ran a number that could've lost him money.
I get this logic but I also think he had nothing to gain. He was 85% likely the first RB that was going to be taken and didn't have much to gain but a 4.55/4.6 could've hurt him. I guess we'll never know but I do remember the vid of him clocking 22MPH and thought, yeah he's not a burner but he's fast enough when the rest of his toolkit is B+/A- for it to not be an issue. You just have to remember that some of the best fantasy RBs (Kareem, Kamara, Lev Bell were also never burners but had very good agility and total toolkits).
League Established in 2014

2015 League Champion
2017 League Champion
2018 League Champion
2022 League Champion

10 Team 20 Keeper League Non ppr

Starters in Bold

QB Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson Aaron Rodgers, Russel Wilson
RB Chubb, JT Javonte Williams, De’Von Achane
Flex Ekeler, Etienne
WR AJB, Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle Mike Williams, Treylon Burks, Amari Rodgers, Nico Collins, Diontae Johnson, Mingo, Burks, Tillman, Batemen
TE TJ Hockenson Higbee Hurst

Sriracha
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3698
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby Sriracha » Mon May 10, 2021 10:58 am

Mike11 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:37 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 5:40 pm Fournette was drafted in the range that all-time RB prospects usually go (Top 5). I think people thought Fournette could be an Adrian Peterson-type of talent.

Neither Najee or Etienne is close to that. I think they are both good, but not great backs and will settle into that tier in the NFL. Doesn't mean they can't have RB1 seasons, because they can, but I don't see either as special.

And like someone else mentioned, I'm still curious as to why Harris didn't run the 40 at his pro day. Given that pro day times are usually faster, I'm guessing he would've ran a number that could've lost him money.
I get this logic but I also think he had nothing to gain. He was 85% likely the first RB that was going to be taken and didn't have much to gain but a 4.55/4.6 could've hurt him. I guess we'll never know but I do remember the vid of him clocking 22MPH and thought, yeah he's not a burner but he's fast enough when the rest of his toolkit is B+/A- for it to not be an issue. You just have to remember that some of the best fantasy RBs (Kareem, Kamara, Lev Bell were also never burners but had very good agility and total toolkits).
Ja’Marr Chase had nothing to gain, either... but he ran anyway.

Because he knew he’s a monster athlete with nothing to hide.

People can make excuses all day for why players don’t test but if a player dodges testing it’s hard for me not to knock them down a peg.

Lazy Ass Mastermind
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 202
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:07 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby Lazy Ass Mastermind » Mon May 10, 2021 3:08 pm

Sriracha wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:58 am
Mike11 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:37 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 5:40 pm Fournette was drafted in the range that all-time RB prospects usually go (Top 5). I think people thought Fournette could be an Adrian Peterson-type of talent.

Neither Najee or Etienne is close to that. I think they are both good, but not great backs and will settle into that tier in the NFL. Doesn't mean they can't have RB1 seasons, because they can, but I don't see either as special.

And like someone else mentioned, I'm still curious as to why Harris didn't run the 40 at his pro day. Given that pro day times are usually faster, I'm guessing he would've ran a number that could've lost him money.
I get this logic but I also think he had nothing to gain. He was 85% likely the first RB that was going to be taken and didn't have much to gain but a 4.55/4.6 could've hurt him. I guess we'll never know but I do remember the vid of him clocking 22MPH and thought, yeah he's not a burner but he's fast enough when the rest of his toolkit is B+/A- for it to not be an issue. You just have to remember that some of the best fantasy RBs (Kareem, Kamara, Lev Bell were also never burners but had very good agility and total toolkits).
Ja’Marr Chase had nothing to gain, either... but he ran anyway.

Because he knew he’s a monster athlete with nothing to hide.

People can make excuses all day for why players don’t test but if a player dodges testing it’s hard for me not to knock them down a peg.
Didn't Ja'Marr Chase also sit out for an entire year because he had nothing to gain?
12 Team, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, Flex, TE, DEF, K
QB: Joe Burrow, Justin Fields
RB: Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Jamaal Williams, Isiah Pacheco
WR: Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Amari Cooper, Terry Mclaurin, Treylon Burks, Courtland Sutton, Parris Campbell
TE: Dallas Goedert, Evan Engram
DST: Dallas Cowboys
K: Tyler Bass

*League is Keep 7, 20 man rosters

Sriracha
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3698
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby Sriracha » Mon May 10, 2021 3:24 pm

Lazy bleep Mastermind wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 3:08 pm
Sriracha wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:58 am
Mike11 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:37 am

I get this logic but I also think he had nothing to gain. He was 85% likely the first RB that was going to be taken and didn't have much to gain but a 4.55/4.6 could've hurt him. I guess we'll never know but I do remember the vid of him clocking 22MPH and thought, yeah he's not a burner but he's fast enough when the rest of his toolkit is B+/A- for it to not be an issue. You just have to remember that some of the best fantasy RBs (Kareem, Kamara, Lev Bell were also never burners but had very good agility and total toolkits).
Ja’Marr Chase had nothing to gain, either... but he ran anyway.

Because he knew he’s a monster athlete with nothing to hide.

People can make excuses all day for why players don’t test but if a player dodges testing it’s hard for me not to knock them down a peg.
Didn't Ja'Marr Chase also sit out for an entire year because he had nothing to gain?
Yes, his tape was already good. His 2020 would do nothing for him other than open up the chance he gets injured.

We've never had legitimate test numbers on Harris so he can't fall back on "I've already proven I'm an elite athlete".

Ice
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6590
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 6:17 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby Ice » Mon May 10, 2021 6:31 pm

Comparing Chase working out and Harris is silly. Chase worked out because he had a chance to cement a top 5-7 pick and didn’t have a season to fall back on.

He actually needed teams to see and remember.

Harris obviously didn’t need to workout based on the draft outcome. No way he was going higher than he did.
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts

Sriracha
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3698
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby Sriracha » Mon May 10, 2021 6:42 pm

Ice wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:31 pm Comparing Chase working out and Harris is silly. Chase worked out because he had a chance to cement a top 5-7 pick and didn’t have a season to fall back on.

He actually needed teams to see and remember.

Harris obviously didn’t need to workout based on the draft outcome. No way he was going higher than he did.
You think Chase wouldve dropped if he skipped testing? I sincerely doubt that

Ice
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6590
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 6:17 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby Ice » Mon May 10, 2021 6:58 pm

Sriracha wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:42 pm
Ice wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:31 pm Comparing Chase working out and Harris is silly. Chase worked out because he had a chance to cement a top 5-7 pick and didn’t have a season to fall back on.

He actually needed teams to see and remember.

Harris obviously didn’t need to workout based on the draft outcome. No way he was going higher than he did.
You think Chase wouldve dropped if he skipped testing? I sincerely doubt that
Yes I do. The teams really needed to see he didn’t put on 50 Lbs or was hurt.

He dropped out last year and with no combine teams needed something and an entire year, which is a lifetime in the NFL, went by.

Chase did the right thing no doubt given there were really 3 WR’s in this draft fighting for bragging rights.

Teams investing Millions want bread crumbs at the very least.
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts

Cameron Giles
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 14243
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue May 11, 2021 8:56 am

Mike11 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:37 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 5:40 pm Fournette was drafted in the range that all-time RB prospects usually go (Top 5). I think people thought Fournette could be an Adrian Peterson-type of talent.

Neither Najee or Etienne is close to that. I think they are both good, but not great backs and will settle into that tier in the NFL. Doesn't mean they can't have RB1 seasons, because they can, but I don't see either as special.

And like someone else mentioned, I'm still curious as to why Harris didn't run the 40 at his pro day. Given that pro day times are usually faster, I'm guessing he would've ran a number that could've lost him money.
I get this logic but I also think he had nothing to gain. He was 85% likely the first RB that was going to be taken and didn't have much to gain but a 4.55/4.6 could've hurt him. I guess we'll never know but I do remember the vid of him clocking 22MPH and thought, yeah he's not a burner but he's fast enough when the rest of his toolkit is B+/A- for it to not be an issue. You just have to remember that some of the best fantasy RBs (Kareem, Kamara, Lev Bell were also never burners but had very good agility and total toolkits).
I would guess that there are two rules for draft workouts:

1. Make money.
2. Don't lose money.

Consider again that pro day 40 times are usually faster than combine times. So, if that .05-.07 boost from a pro day doesn't help, then my guess is running the 40 would have lost Harris money and he probably runs somewhere in the mid 4.6's

If speed isn't an issue, then you run, because you won't lose money and you'll likely make money. Example: Rondale Moore made sure he ran the 40 at his pro day.

jenkins.math
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1589
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:56 am

Re: Are Najee & ETN the 2021 versions of Fournette & Cook?

Postby jenkins.math » Tue May 11, 2021 9:41 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:56 am
Mike11 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:37 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 5:40 pm Fournette was drafted in the range that all-time RB prospects usually go (Top 5). I think people thought Fournette could be an Adrian Peterson-type of talent.

Neither Najee or Etienne is close to that. I think they are both good, but not great backs and will settle into that tier in the NFL. Doesn't mean they can't have RB1 seasons, because they can, but I don't see either as special.

And like someone else mentioned, I'm still curious as to why Harris didn't run the 40 at his pro day. Given that pro day times are usually faster, I'm guessing he would've ran a number that could've lost him money.
I get this logic but I also think he had nothing to gain. He was 85% likely the first RB that was going to be taken and didn't have much to gain but a 4.55/4.6 could've hurt him. I guess we'll never know but I do remember the vid of him clocking 22MPH and thought, yeah he's not a burner but he's fast enough when the rest of his toolkit is B+/A- for it to not be an issue. You just have to remember that some of the best fantasy RBs (Kareem, Kamara, Lev Bell were also never burners but had very good agility and total toolkits).
I would guess that there are two rules for draft workouts:

1. Make money.
2. Don't lose money.

Consider again that pro day 40 times are usually faster than combine times. So, if that .05-.07 boost from a pro day doesn't help, then my guess is running the 40 would have lost Harris money and he probably runs somewhere in the mid 4.6's

If speed isn't an issue, then you run, because you won't lose money and you'll likely make money. Example: Rondale Moore made sure he ran the 40 at his pro day.
I don't think it had anything to do with losing money, but moreso mitigating your risk. With the devaluing of the position, he would have to have run a 4.4 or lower to have moved up much in the draft. He knows he doesn't have that speed, so no reason for him to run since he literally has zero to gain by running. He can point to his in game speed time to show he is plenty fast enough. Even if he runs a 4.6, he is still going as a top 3 RB. Its risk vs reward and there wasn't enough reward.

Most of the top QBs don't throw at the combine (when they had it), but it doesn't mean they can't. They just don't have anything to gain. Same thing with Najee and his 40.

Also, if Rondale Moore refused to run the 40 he might have slid to day 3 with his measurables and career arc. He didn't have the clout to not run.


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot], Prison_Mike and 32 guests