The Cam Akers Wager Thread -- CLOSED (abloom wins)

[honcho55]

Edit: found some time to repost

No, but close, RB 14

I wish the over/under was a little lower. RB10-12 is still a nice success for a year two RB, would expect his value to creep up if anything. 13-18 likewise isn’t bad, particularly if it’s a result of missing 4 games or something. 19-24 would be a disappointment for sure, and obviously I’d he isn’t even an RB2 that’s bad.

All that said, I think most of the 2020 RB class is overrated around here. JT 2 overall? Swift and Akers around 7-8? I would trade JT for a 1.02 package any day. Leagues I have Swift I haven’t gotten one inquiry or offer, and don’t even get replies when I send stuff. Anyways.

Stafford is a nice plus imo. Underrated NFL QB in his prime, coming to an already solid team. I try not to overthink it here, QB upgrade=better O=better for RBs, if not all skill positions.

[Pet_Smith]

I think this is a cop out bet... I see him finishing as an RB1, but in the RB8-12 range.

So I'd say no. But surely does he finish as an RB1 is more meaningful? And others have alluded to, the difference between dynasty and redraft is huge especially at the 10+ range.

RB1... Yes. Top 10... My head says no, but screw it. Yes. RB9

[AussieMate]

YES!!! RB8.

Love this

[Vcize]

I think this is a cop out bet... I see him finishing as an RB1, but in the RB8-12 range.

So I'd say no. But surely does he finish as an RB1 is more meaningful? And others have alluded to, the difference between dynasty and redraft is huge especially at the 10+ range.

If he plays 16 games and finishes at the back end of that range I think most will consider him a bust at his current price. Guys that played all 16 games and finished around RB12 are guys like Kareem Hunt and Melvin Gordon, and no one has any interest in them.

Where he's being drafted, in the mid 1st round of startups at this point, he's really going to have to finish top 6 to not lose value, possibly significant value. Josh Jacobs finished as RB8 last year and look at his value, even before the Drake signing. Zeke was RB9.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I think this is a cop out bet... I see him finishing as an RB1, but in the RB8-12 range.

So I'd say no. But surely does he finish as an RB1 is more meaningful? And others have alluded to, the difference between dynasty and redraft is huge especially at the 10+ range.

If he plays 16 games and finishes at the back end of that range I think most will consider him a bust at his current price. Guys that played all 16 games and finished around RB12 are guys like Kareem Hunt and Melvin Gordon, and no one has any interest in them.

Where he's being drafted, in the mid 1st round of startups at this point, he's really going to have to finish top 6 to not lose value, possibly significant value. Josh Jacobs finished as RB8 last year and look at his value, even before the Drake signing. Zeke was RB9.

It was a weird year though in which Saquon, CMC and Mixon were out, so the rb8 ranking is a bit misleading. The bet should actually be about how many points scored. But it's just a silly bet so who cares anyway lol.

[Vcize]

I think this is a cop out bet... I see him finishing as an RB1, but in the RB8-12 range.

So I'd say no. But surely does he finish as an RB1 is more meaningful? And others have alluded to, the difference between dynasty and redraft is huge especially at the 10+ range.

If he plays 16 games and finishes at the back end of that range I think most will consider him a bust at his current price. Guys that played all 16 games and finished around RB12 are guys like Kareem Hunt and Melvin Gordon, and no one has any interest in them.

Where he's being drafted, in the mid 1st round of startups at this point, he's really going to have to finish top 6 to not lose value, possibly significant value. Josh Jacobs finished as RB8 last year and look at his value, even before the Drake signing. Zeke was RB9.

It was a weird year though in which Saquon, CMC and Mixon were out, so the rb8 ranking is a bit misleading. The bet should actually be about how many points scored. But it's just a silly bet so who cares anyway lol.

Yeah fair enough. There are always guys out with injuries though, hence the point that if he plays 16 games he should really finish much better than RB12.

In 2019 RB12 was Chris Carson and people weren't exactly rushing out to grab him with a 1st round startup pick.

I kind of think people are inadvertently lying to themselves about what their expectations are with Akers. Any scrub that has a lead role and plays 16 games can finish RB12. If he plays 15/16 games and finishes at RB12 overall that is probably something more like RB18 in PPG, and that is a poor return on a 1st round startup pick and his value will tumble.

It's easy to sit back and say "yeah I just hope he finishes in the RB9-RB12 range and I'll be happy", but the reality is with his cost and expectations if he goes out there and is going toe to toe with Chris Carson and Kareem Hunt in scoring then people are going to be pretty bummed about it.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Yes

RB7

[mgscott]

No RB 25. I agree with a lot of your points on this one Mike

[CGW]

Maybe a more interesting wager would be if he out produces RoJo?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

If he plays 16 games and finishes at the back end of that range I think most will consider him a bust at his current price. Guys that played all 16 games and finished around RB12 are guys like Kareem Hunt and Melvin Gordon, and no one has any interest in them.

Where he's being drafted, in the mid 1st round of startups at this point, he's really going to have to finish top 6 to not lose value, possibly significant value. Josh Jacobs finished as RB8 last year and look at his value, even before the Drake signing. Zeke was RB9.

It was a weird year though in which Saquon, CMC and Mixon were out, so the rb8 ranking is a bit misleading. The bet should actually be about how many points scored. But it's just a silly bet so who cares anyway lol.

Yeah fair enough. There are always guys out with injuries though, hence the point that if he plays 16 games he should really finish much better than RB12.

In 2019 RB12 was Chris Carson and people weren't exactly rushing out to grab him with a 1st round startup pick.

I kind of think people are inadvertently lying to themselves about what their expectations are with Akers. Any scrub that has a lead role and plays 16 games can finish RB12. If he plays 15/16 games and finishes at RB12 overall that is probably something more like RB18 in PPG, and that is a poor return on a 1st round startup pick and his value will tumble.

It's easy to sit back and say "yeah I just hope he finishes in the RB9-RB12 range and I'll be happy", but the reality is with his cost and expectations if he goes out there and is going toe to toe with Chris Carson and Kareem Hunt in scoring then people are going to be pretty bummed about it.

Totally agree. Any Akers owner who doesn’t think he’ll finish top 10 should be selling immediately

[Pullo Vision]

The Question Is Simple: Will Cam Akers be a top 10 RB in 2021, Season Total in 0.5 PPR?

Yes.

EXTRA BONUS QUESTION FOR GLORY: Give me what you think will be his final RB rank for the 2021 season.

RB8

For me, it became an easy answer when it was elaborated that this was total points, not PPG ranking. In order for him to rank high, he needs-
1- To have little/no injuries (with an assist from injuries to others)
2- To have little/no competition for touches

You can't predict injuries, but given I see little/no high end competition, and I trust the scheme/staff to help him be very efficient with his touches, I have no doubt he'd be a top 12 RB easily.

[stoneghost28]

It was a weird year though in which Saquon, CMC and Mixon were out, so the rb8 ranking is a bit misleading. The bet should actually be about how many points scored. But it's just a silly bet so who cares anyway lol.

Yeah fair enough. There are always guys out with injuries though, hence the point that if he plays 16 games he should really finish much better than RB12.

In 2019 RB12 was Chris Carson and people weren't exactly rushing out to grab him with a 1st round startup pick.

I kind of think people are inadvertently lying to themselves about what their expectations are with Akers. Any scrub that has a lead role and plays 16 games can finish RB12. If he plays 15/16 games and finishes at RB12 overall that is probably something more like RB18 in PPG, and that is a poor return on a 1st round startup pick and his value will tumble.

It's easy to sit back and say "yeah I just hope he finishes in the RB9-RB12 range and I'll be happy", but the reality is with his cost and expectations if he goes out there and is going toe to toe with Chris Carson and Kareem Hunt in scoring then people are going to be pretty bummed about it.

Totally agree. Any Akers owner who doesn’t think he’ll finish top 10 should be selling immediately

I'm of two minds about it, it feels like a suckers bet, just pulling up my PPR raw point totals, the turnover of the top 10 year to year is just nuts and a huge part of it is always injuries, and since you can't take injuries into account it's basically pointless. Secondarily we're not taking into account two of the reasons people would bet on him: PPR, and it's dynasty. It aint redraft. I would go out on this level of a limb, if he avoids serious multigame injury issues he's a lock to be a top 10 back. I have no problem saying that, especially in PPR. Long term I feel the same, I expect him to be a top 5-10 RB overall between '21-'24 or '25 pending injuries. I've managed to add a couple of shares, and now have 4 in 12 dynasty leagues and 2 more in RSO leagues, so not too bad, I was very bummed I didn't have more after the rookie drafts last year, but I just tended to have firsts in the 1-4 zone, and so I kept just missing out (almost always went 1.05 in my leagues). Managed to add an additional 3 via trades during the season and this offseason to make it 6 shares, so definitely happy about that.

[Vcize]

The Question Is Simple: Will Cam Akers be a top 10 RB in 2021, Season Total in 0.5 PPR?

Yes.

EXTRA BONUS QUESTION FOR GLORY: Give me what you think will be his final RB rank for the 2021 season.

RB8

For me, it became an easy answer when it was elaborated that this was total points, not PPG ranking. In order for him to rank high, he needs-
1- To have little/no injuries (with an assist from injuries to others)
2- To have little/no competition for touches

You can't predict injuries, but given I see little/no high end competition, and I trust the scheme/staff to help him be very efficient with his touches, I have no doubt he'd be a top 12 RB easily.

I'm of two minds about it, it feels like a suckers bet, just pulling up my PPR raw point totals, the turnover of the top 10 year to year is just nuts and a huge part of it is always injuries, and since you can't take injuries into account it's basically pointless. Secondarily we're not taking into account two of the reasons people would bet on him: PPR, and it's dynasty. It aint redraft. I would go out on this level of a limb, if he avoids serious multigame injury issues he's a lock to be a top 10 back. I have no problem saying that, especially in PPR. Long term I feel the same, I expect him to be a top 5-10 RB overall between '21-'24 or '25 pending injuries. I've managed to add a couple of shares, and now have 4 in 12 dynasty leagues and 2 more in RSO leagues, so not too bad, I was very bummed I didn't have more after the rookie drafts last year, but I just tended to have firsts in the 1-4 zone, and so I kept just missing out (almost always went 1.05 in my leagues). Managed to add an additional 3 via trades during the season and this offseason to make it 6 shares, so definitely happy about that.

This is kind of what I was referencing above. "RB8" or merely "a lock for top 10" if he plays all 16 games is way too low on him at his current price.

ANYONE that plays all 16 games as a lead back is a lock for top 10, because there simply aren't 10 guys that operate as a lead back and play 16 games most years.

Akers' ADP right now in FFPC is 1.05. At that kind of price, if he plays all 16 games, he needs to finish as a top 5, possibly top 3 back or he is going to lose significant value headed into next year.

This thread is definitely tricky with the overall ranking and having to bake injuries into our predictions. Something like RB8 or in the back half of the top 10 RBs is fine if he plays ~12 games. That's what someone like Nick Chubb gives us and he has decent value.

But RB8 on a full slate of games last year was Josh Jacobs. RB8 on a full slate of games amounts to 15.42ppg, which is about what guys like David Johnson and Chris Carson were scoring. A full 1ppg behind Miles Gaskin.

It's easy now to say I'll take low RB1 production from a 22 year old but the reality is at the price being paid most people wouldn't once push actually comes to shove, and if he lands in as a boring low RB1 people are going to get bored and move on imo.

At Akers' current price I think his value is going to drop substantially if he doesn't immediately jump into the 18-24ppg tier that would land him as a top 5 back on a full slate of games. So I get that ~RB8ish where a lot of people have him is a reasonable place if we're baking in some missed games, but I think some people are putting him there assuming he plays a full slate and thinking they'd be happy with that, when in reality that would be something that hurts his value fairly substantially.

Maybe a better question would be where people project Akers to finish in PPG, or how many PPG they are expecting.

[stoneghost28]

Pretty much. That's the most reliable way to nail down whose right and wrong on the eval, but that negates a get out of jail free card on a misevaluation for one year at least, and some find it hard to admit those errors (not me, '19 alone made me genius (AJ Brown and Miles Sanders) and fool (Terry McLaurin and N'Keal Harry) in the same draft. We should all drop at least some of the hubris in our carrying cases post-haste.

[ArrylT]

Really pleased with the discussion this thread has generated. Maybe we should do 1 for each position.