Trey Sermon

[Bronco Billy]

I see everyone taking victory laps and mocking those who took him early.

I’ll eat crow, I drafted him 1.06 in draft that occurred after the last preseason game. I would have taken him 5th if I could, actually.

Pre-draft I had him ranked 18th, so I get the “duh, just drafting situation” aspect. But, like, situation matters too. I’ve done that in the past and it’s worked out. Last year I took Gibson earlier than I had him cause of situation. It’s all a balance. I didn’t love anyone past the top 5 and top 4 once Etienne got hurt. I’m a big believer in shanahan, saw a clear path to playing time in that offense, didn’t love anyone else, and thought he was good enough to take advantage (situation is REALLY important for RB’s).

Alas

Outside of one or two people, who else is the “everybody” who are taking victory laps? I’ll admit to a little bit of teasing, but nothing that would amount to a victory dance. The RB situation is dynamic, but it looks to me like most are discussing probable outcomes based upon the actions of the team moving forward from OTAs through TC and PS and now into the regular season.

I get that Sermon owners are discouraged right now, but it’s very early on in this process and things have changed quickly. I’m a Mitchell proponent from back in Spring and had doubts about Sermon, but I’ll be damned if I’ll start Mitchell this week because nothing has firmed up into a static pecking order right now. I’d love to get SF’s RB1 into my lineup but I need to see the depth chart stabilize. I’m not concerned about the Johnson addition to the PS but I do want to see how Cannon enters into the equation over the next couple of weeks. NFL HCs value STers highly, and for good reason, while most FFers tend to dismiss them if they don’t have significant O value.

If Cannon doesn’t figure into rosters decisions in the next couple of weeks, that would figure to have Mitchell returning kicks, which would create a hole for Sermon to fit into. If Cannon is returning kicks, Mitchell is looking at exclusive RB snaps and then Sermon would be in direct competition with Hasty for game day activation, which is a tougher route for him.

IMO this is still way up in the air.

[SteelLake]

I see everyone taking victory laps and mocking those who took him early.

I’ll eat crow, I drafted him 1.06 in draft that occurred after the last preseason game. I would have taken him 5th if I could, actually.

Pre-draft I had him ranked 18th, so I get the “duh, just drafting situation” aspect. But, like, situation matters too. I’ve done that in the past and it’s worked out. Last year I took Gibson earlier than I had him cause of situation. It’s all a balance. I didn’t love anyone past the top 5 and top 4 once Etienne got hurt. I’m a big believer in shanahan, saw a clear path to playing time in that offense, didn’t love anyone else, and thought he was good enough to take advantage (situation is REALLY important for RB’s).

Alas

Outside of one or two people, who else is the “everybody” who are taking victory laps? I’ll admit to a little bit of teasing, but nothing that would amount to a victory dance. The RB situation is dynamic, but it looks to me like most are discussing probable outcomes based upon the actions of the team moving forward from OTAs through TC and PS and now into the regular season.

I get that Sermon owners are discouraged right now, but it’s very early on in this process and things have changed quickly. I’m a Mitchell proponent from back in Spring and had doubts about Sermon, but I’ll be damned if I’ll start Mitchell this week because nothing has firmed up into a static pecking order right now. I’d love to get SF’s RB1 into my lineup but I need to see the depth chart stabilize. I’m not concerned about the Johnson addition to the PS but I do want to see how Cannon enters into the equation over the next couple of weeks. NFL HCs value STers highly, and for good reason, while most FFers tend to dismiss them if they don’t have significant O value.

If Cannon doesn’t figure into rosters decisions in the next couple of weeks, that would figure to have Mitchell returning kicks, which would create a hole for Sermon to fit into. If Cannon is returning kicks, Mitchell is looking at exclusive RB snaps and then Sermon would be in direct competition with Hasty for game day activation, which is a tougher route for him.

IMO this is still way up in the air.

I’ll be honest, I skimmed this thread quickly, and couple posts I read a little more in depth appeared to have that tone. My bad if I mischaracterized, probably subconsciously sensitive over surprise scratch.

[Bronco Billy]

I see everyone taking victory laps and mocking those who took him early.

I’ll eat crow, I drafted him 1.06 in draft that occurred after the last preseason game. I would have taken him 5th if I could, actually.

Pre-draft I had him ranked 18th, so I get the “duh, just drafting situation” aspect. But, like, situation matters too. I’ve done that in the past and it’s worked out. Last year I took Gibson earlier than I had him cause of situation. It’s all a balance. I didn’t love anyone past the top 5 and top 4 once Etienne got hurt. I’m a big believer in shanahan, saw a clear path to playing time in that offense, didn’t love anyone else, and thought he was good enough to take advantage (situation is REALLY important for RB’s).

Alas

Outside of one or two people, who else is the “everybody” who are taking victory laps? I’ll admit to a little bit of teasing, but nothing that would amount to a victory dance. The RB situation is dynamic, but it looks to me like most are discussing probable outcomes based upon the actions of the team moving forward from OTAs through TC and PS and now into the regular season.

I get that Sermon owners are discouraged right now, but it’s very early on in this process and things have changed quickly. I’m a Mitchell proponent from back in Spring and had doubts about Sermon, but I’ll be damned if I’ll start Mitchell this week because nothing has firmed up into a static pecking order right now. I’d love to get SF’s RB1 into my lineup but I need to see the depth chart stabilize. I’m not concerned about the Johnson addition to the PS but I do want to see how Cannon enters into the equation over the next couple of weeks. NFL HCs value STers highly, and for good reason, while most FFers tend to dismiss them if they don’t have significant O value.

If Cannon doesn’t figure into rosters decisions in the next couple of weeks, that would figure to have Mitchell returning kicks, which would create a hole for Sermon to fit into. If Cannon is returning kicks, Mitchell is looking at exclusive RB snaps and then Sermon would be in direct competition with Hasty for game day activation, which is a tougher route for him.

IMO this is still way up in the air.

I’ll be honest, I skimmed this thread quickly, and couple posts I read a little more in depth appeared to have that tone. My bad if I mischaracterized, probably subconsciously sensitive over surprise scratch.

Yeah, I understand. That is tough as a Sermon owner for sure. I can commiserate - I’ve got Zack Moss in the same situation and wondering wth happened.

[Avery]

I see everyone taking victory laps and mocking those who took him early.

I’ll eat crow, I drafted him 1.06 in draft that occurred after the last preseason game. I would have taken him 5th if I could, actually.

Pre-draft I had him ranked 18th, so I get the “duh, just drafting situation” aspect. But, like, situation matters too. I’ve done that in the past and it’s worked out. Last year I took Gibson earlier than I had him cause of situation. It’s all a balance. I didn’t love anyone past the top 5 and top 4 once Etienne got hurt. I’m a big believer in shanahan, saw a clear path to playing time in that offense, didn’t love anyone else, and thought he was good enough to take advantage (situation is REALLY important for RB’s).

Alas

Right on. However, the situation there in SF was fools gold in a way. I just don't see Sermon as a good fit in their offense. Now, admittedly they could change things but I didn't see that as likely.

I too drafted A.Gibson in as many leagues as I could last year and it did have some to do with his landing spot but admittedly, I loved his tape. Realizing he'd slide due to lack of volume in touches and the transition from wr to rb. He was electric with the ball in his hands and just popped off the screen when watching what he did with limited touches. I felt NONE of that while watching Sermon.

There are successful RBs with different skill sets for example, I would never call Henry or Elliot "electric" but they are very good to great NFL RBs.

[Plank]

Should see twitter hounding the SF beat reporters ..

The better rival podcast quoted Shanahan in saying that Eli and Hasty outperformed him in the preseason based on their abilities playing special teams and they pretty much moved on without saying much more .. Oscar later tweeted something to the effect that fantasy players should pick up Eli .. In case they needed to hear it .. or didn't know that already ..

Better Rivals pods is one of my favorite pods by any team, really like those guys ..

[ArrylT]

Guess we'll see if Kyle Shanahan meant what he said about Aiyuk & Sermon not at their best in practice in Week I.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/09/16/ ... oached-up/

Sermon has practiced convincingly this week, (49ers OC) McDaniel saying: “There was a deliberate intent and an extra focus to him, an extra aggressiveness that I think his teammates felt.”

“B.A. has done an outstanding job this week answering the bell,” McDaniel said. “… In-house with the 49ers, it’s not like he’s in the doghouse at all or anything. But responding this week, he’s been running his routes hard, crisp and it’s gotten better with practice so it’s been very encouraging.”

[Hottoddies]

Guess we'll see if Kyle Shanahan meant what he said about Aiyuk & Sermon not at their best in practice in Week I.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/09/16/ ... oached-up/

Sermon has practiced convincingly this week, (49ers OC) McDaniel saying: “There was a deliberate intent and an extra focus to him, an extra aggressiveness that I think his teammates felt.”

“B.A. has done an outstanding job this week answering the bell,” McDaniel said. “… In-house with the 49ers, it’s not like he’s in the doghouse at all or anything. But responding this week, he’s been running his routes hard, crisp and it’s gotten better with practice so it’s been very encouraging.”

I think Shanahan was sending a message to his players. He wants to create an environment of competition. Nobody is guaranteed a job. If you're not willing to put the work in, there is someone else capable of taking your job.

[killer_of_giants]

chances sermon starts this weekend and is the clear cut lead back? would anyone be surprised if it happens?

[Bronco Billy]

chances sermon starts this weekend and is the clear cut lead back? would anyone be surprised if it happens?

I would be

[killer_of_giants]

chances sermon starts this weekend and is the clear cut lead back? would anyone be surprised if it happens?

I would be

yeah, poorly worded: i'd be surprised if he starts, but not if he ends up with more carries and yards.

[MEuRaH]

It's not just zone, it's outside zone. Outside zone is lateral quickness to the sideline. You need to read from the outside-in rather than the inside-out. Sermon is not built for this scheme. He's a power runner. I've been scratching my head at this pick since day one. The Niners brass always seems to reach for RBs they don't need.

If/when the Niners do more power or inside zone, then Sermon will start to have value a-la Tevin Coleman. Until then, Sermon will sit on your bench and wait.

Two thoughts.

- (1) Didn't Carlos Hyde do well in SF?
- (2) Regarding more power or inside zone...won't SF be doing this when Trey Lance takes over starting QB?

It's week 1 of the 2021 season, some call it still preseason. Way to early to be bailing on Trey Sermon (although I do think a 1st round pick was probably to much for a likely RBBC RB).

(1) He didn't run in the Shanahan offense. The offense pre-Shanahan was entirely different.

(2) This is the question yet to be answered. MORE of it is perhaps true with the option play being a possibility, but I would expect the outside zone to still be the staple of this offense. It's literally the play & formation they call the majority of the time. They run so many plays off of the threat of the outside zone that without it, the Niners probably wouldn't score a single point. I am not exaggerating.

You bring up a good point though. If/when Lance takes over, I think Sermon would be more valuable.

[Bronco Billy]

chances sermon starts this weekend and is the clear cut lead back? would anyone be surprised if it happens?

I would be

yeah, poorly worded: i'd be surprised if he starts, but not if he ends up with more carries and yards.

I’d be surprised by that also.

[SteelLake]

I'll go like 10% chance sermon gets more carries / yards. So, yea, I guess that falls in surprised but not shocked thing

[killer_of_giants]

yeah, poorly worded: i'd be surprised if he starts, but not if he ends up with more carries and yards.

I’d be surprised by that also.

good, i guess i'm just being overly pessimistic about my mitchell shares!

[kmbryant09]

Well, I finally cashed out on Sermon. I was the guy who wrote a lengthy post detailing why / how I ended up drafting Sermon at 1.08 even though I probably shouldn't have. Part of my rationale was to target a specific player's 2023 1st round pick, while I was unable to get my hands on that specific pick, I did get a pretty juicy looking '23 1st:

Gave - Trey Sermon / Marquez Callaway / '23 3rd (late)
Got - '23 1st (early) / '22 2nd (early)

Probably could have gotten more a week ago, but happy to turn a late 1st in an average class and a WW pickup into an early 2nd and early 1st in better classes.