Trey Sermon

[tresskid84]

I never said i didn't want to touch him. Id love to add him. Im just not spending a 1 in a sf for him, haha. Hes my 2.06 in sf, but id take him as early as 2.04 if my need was great enough.

[Jigga94]

I get that people won't want to touch him because the backfield is murky but again... early round 2/mid round 2 in SF, I feel like this is a worthwhile risk.

The old adage is "teams tell you how they feel about players twice a year: 1) Free Agency 2) Draft Day"

This is how our draft went for reference:
Lawrence, Lance, Chase, Harris (me), Pitts, Fields, Etienne, Wilson, Williams, D Smith, Waddle, Mac, Batemen, Sermon (me)

I also had 2.07 and was ok taking whoever fell to me of the Moore's and Marshall. I ended up getting Elijah which I am happier about post draft than I was during it. I think it's going to depend on peoples RB depth charts and how many picks they have.

Yeah I don't think he continues to go mid 2nd in most leagues as people reach for RB in my experience. That's about where I'd have him though and that's not a bad thing. I think there's 4 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR and Pitts firmly above him. That's 12. Then you're debating (no order) Mac, Carter, Sermon, Moore, Moore, Marshall, etc. I think a lot of people will reach for RB here, but I'm going to draft up a few of those WR and Carter before Sermon personally

[MEuRaH]

I loved Sermon in my pre-draft rankings, but that landing spot in SF actually hurts Sermon imo. It's not a great fit. The Niners run a lot of lateral plays, and Sermon doesn't have the speed that Mostert and Wilson have. I think a lot of Sermon owners are going to be disappointed, unless the 49ers change up their offense to match his style when he's on the field... which I seriously doubt.

I like Sermon as a RBBC guy, and if I owned Mostert I'd be determined to get Sermon and Wilson as backups... but there's no way I'm using a first rounder to acquire him, nor am I thinking RB1 with him.

[Ice]

I loved Sermon in my pre-draft rankings, but that landing spot in SF actually hurts Sermon imo. It's not a great fit. The Niners run a lot of lateral plays, and Sermon doesn't have the speed that Mostert and Wilson have. I think a lot of Sermon owners are going to be disappointed, unless the 49ers change up their offense to match his style when he's on the field... which I seriously doubt.

I like Sermon as a RBBC guy, and if I owned Mostert I'd be determined to get Sermon and Wilson as backups... but there's no way I'm using a first rounder to acquire him, nor am I thinking RB1 with him.

I would just say in Zone based scheme it's not about speed. I think many do not put nearly enough emphasis on RB's 10 yard splits. Sermon was WAY BETTER in his 10 yard split than any back in the vaunted 2020 class except one RB who on principle I won't name.

The 49's are not stupid. They moved TWO 4th rounders to move up from 102 to 88 to draft this player.

Pretty simple to read the tea leaves on this one. The 49's believe he is a great fit and I believe they are probably right given they really know run concepts. When he puts his foot in the ground he can cover 10 yards in less than 1.5 seconds. He may not have long speed but he is a blur when he cuts and runs for a short burst. More Quarter horse than Thoroughbred for those that know anything about horses.

[Bronco Billy]

I watch Sermon run and he’s just so damned
slow. There are some guys who turn shaky 40s but you watch game film and you see that their game speed is faster than their 40. But Sermon’s tape match his game speed it seems. He’s got decent burst but man he just doesn’t go much faster once he gets to the seam.

I’m really struggling to see him being successful when he doesn’t have OSU linemen opening wide holes for him. I hope I’m wrong but I think he’s really in for a struggle as a pro. And draft capital means absolutely nothing to me when it’s Shanahan and his pounding the table for Williams and seeing how that turned out. He’s going to go way earlier in FF drafts than I’d have the stomach to burn a pick on him.

[raiders444]

Draft capital shmaft capital. The real question is: did Kyle pound the table for Sermon or not?

Isn't that likely a yes if they traded up for him?

I think you maybe missed the humor of his "pound the table" line! Back in 2017 there was a long behind the scenes story written about the first Shanahan and John Lynch draft. In that article, Shanahan was allegedly pounding the table for Lynch to take Joe Williams in the 3rd round (not a guy Lynch really wanted). Turns out the pre-draft red flags on Williams lack of desire may have been true, and he flamed out after a year spent on IR and 2 training camps. I fell for the pound the table thing myself and took Williams with the 1.16 pick that year instead of Kamara. So to sum up, maybe its a bad thing when Shanahan pounds the table for a guy? And it would be interesting to find out if Sermon was a Shanahan or a Lynch choice

[Jigga94]

Draft capital shmaft capital. The real question is: did Kyle pound the table for Sermon or not?

Isn't that likely a yes if they traded up for him?

I think you maybe missed the humor of his "pound the table" line! Back in 2017 there was a long behind the scenes story written about the first Shanahan and John Lynch draft. In that article, Shanahan was allegedly pounding the table for Lynch to take Joe Williams in the 3rd round (not a guy Lynch really wanted). Turns out the pre-draft red flags on Williams lack of desire may have been true, and he flamed out after a year spent on IR and 2 training camps. I fell for the pound the table thing myself and took Williams with the 1.16 pick that year instead of Kamara. So to sum up, maybe its a bad thing when Shanahan pounds the table for a guy? And it would be interesting to find out if Sermon was a Shanahan or a Lynch choice

I also remember when DaHen was traded up for and the team was 'pounding the table' for him

[Mike11]

Draft capital shmaft capital. The real question is: did Kyle pound the table for Sermon or not?

Isn't that likely a yes if they traded up for him?

I think you maybe missed the humor of his "pound the table" line! Back in 2017 there was a long behind the scenes story written about the first Shanahan and John Lynch draft. In that article, Shanahan was allegedly pounding the table for Lynch to take Joe Williams in the 3rd round (not a guy Lynch really wanted). Turns out the pre-draft red flags on Williams lack of desire may have been true, and he flamed out after a year spent on IR and 2 training camps. I fell for the pound the table thing myself and took Williams with the 1.16 pick that year instead of Kamara. So to sum up, maybe its a bad thing when Shanahan pounds the table for a guy? And it would be interesting to find out if Sermon was a Shanahan or a Lynch choice

Ahhh you’re totally right this was missed by me. I think reading the tea leaves people will reach more for him because that’s the reality of RB but I took him at 14 in 2QB and do have 13 guys ahead of him. No doubt he’s a risky pick, we all agree and his long speed leaves something to be desired but color me intrigued.

Also contrary to the other Mike I like his spot and am not too scared by what they have ahead of him. I think it could take an injury to see him flash but why did Shanny want him in round 3? What was it about him that made them lean him over Carter. I think Sermon vs Carter will be a debate all offseason but Sermon has the body and short area acceleration + vision to be an upside RB.

Carter is definitely a short window guy, if he does well this year I’d still be worried he’ll get JRobbed (see what I did there?). I also think Shanny isn’t usually using premium picks on rbs so I can live wi the known threats he has in front of him

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I loved Sermon in my pre-draft rankings, but that landing spot in SF actually hurts Sermon imo. It's not a great fit. The Niners run a lot of lateral plays, and Sermon doesn't have the speed that Mostert and Wilson have. I think a lot of Sermon owners are going to be disappointed, unless the 49ers change up their offense to match his style when he's on the field... which I seriously doubt.

I like Sermon as a RBBC guy, and if I owned Mostert I'd be determined to get Sermon and Wilson as backups... but there's no way I'm using a first rounder to acquire him, nor am I thinking RB1 with him.

I would just say in Zone based scheme it's not about speed. I think many do not put nearly enough emphasis on RB's 10 yard splits. Sermon was WAY BETTER in his 10 yard split than any back in the vaunted 2020 class except one RB who on principle I won't name.

10 yard split times vary wildly from year to year for some reason. I don't know the exact reason for this but some years they will be super fast and other years much slower. And it has nothing to do with the players, it's some sort of faulty way they either time it or record the time into their databse. Some years there is no data for them. Also, comparing combine times to pro day times is insanity.

[Ice]

I get many believe the combine is everything and Pro days suck but his 10 yard splits were fantastic.

You can think insane as you like but the pro scouts and the 49’s were highly impressed with his 1st step quickness.

Not claiming he will be great but the fact the 49’s spent a lot of draft capital would be foolish to overlook IMO especially given how the staff utilizes RB’s.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I get many believe the combine is everything and Pro days suck but his 10 yard splits were fantastic.

You can think insane as you like but the pro scouts and the 49’s were highly impressed with his 1st step quickness.

Not claiming he will be great but the fact the 49’s spent a lot of draft capital would be foolish to overlook IMO especially given how the staff utilizes RB’s.

I’m saying the 10 yard splits are wildly innacurate even at the combine. Comparing 10 yard splits from this year to any other year makes zero sense. You have no idea what his actual 10 yard split was

[Ice]

I get many believe the combine is everything and Pro days suck but his 10 yard splits were fantastic.

You can think insane as you like but the pro scouts and the 49’s were highly impressed with his 1st step quickness.

Not claiming he will be great but the fact the 49’s spent a lot of draft capital would be foolish to overlook IMO especially given how the staff utilizes RB’s.

I’m saying the 10 yard splits are wildly innacurate even at the combine. Comparing 10 yard splits from this year to any other year makes zero sense. You have no idea what his actual 10 yard split was

Whatever, we can launch spacecraft and land them on Mars; Yes figuring out 10 yard splits must be hard by comparison.

Really......

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I get many believe the combine is everything and Pro days suck but his 10 yard splits were fantastic.

You can think insane as you like but the pro scouts and the 49’s were highly impressed with his 1st step quickness.

Not claiming he will be great but the fact the 49’s spent a lot of draft capital would be foolish to overlook IMO especially given how the staff utilizes RB’s.

I’m saying the 10 yard splits are wildly innacurate even at the combine. Comparing 10 yard splits from this year to any other year makes zero sense. You have no idea what his actual 10 yard split was

Whatever, we can launch spacecraft and land them on Mars; Yes figuring out 10 yard splits must be hard by comparison.

Really......

I don’t think NASA is conducting the pro days

[Ice]

Maybe not but if you know any pro scouts ask them how important 10 splits are in movement sports.

We fans are enamored with 40’s in football and 60’s in baseball but the pros actually breakdown in increments and it matters.

Agree to disagree I guess.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Maybe not but if you know any pro scouts ask them how important 10 splits are in movement sports.

We fans are enamored with 40’s in football and 60’s in baseball but the pros actually breakdown in increments and it matters.

Agree to disagree I guess.

... I’m saying they are not timed and/or recorded accurately. I know this for a fact. Comparing this class 10 yard split to any other class is an exercise in complete nonsense. I’ve been combing over combine and pro day data for more than 5 years. I have looked specifically into the 10 yard dash and saw that what is recorded in databases can be wildly innacurate, sometimes for individual players and sometimes for entire draft classes. There isn’t a resource on the internet that has all the data recorded correctly. Whatever comparisons your trying to make, you have no idea if the data is accurate, not to mention pro day times are significantly less accurate than combine times