Trey Sermon

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Mike11
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Trey Sermon

Postby Mike11 » Wed May 05, 2021 7:53 am

I know there's been a lot of chatter on him in multiple different threads but I feel like he's going to be a real value in terms of where he's going in rookie drafts. Yes the room is a little crowded, but not with any legit threats long term (believe all the deals are 1 year for their RBs). SF traded up for him, he has the prototypical body and had an elite RAS (relative athletic score) score of 9.09 out of 10. In 2QB/SF I think he's right in the Batemen, Mac Tier (debatably the Moore's and Marshall as well).

I could be wrong, but has Shanahan ever drafted an RB earlier than Sermon? I'm not saying he's better than the top 3 backs but I do think he can pay off big and you're going to see him rising up boards for the next 3 months. If you can get him 2.01-2.05 in SF or back of round 1 in 1QB I'm pulling trig. I don't really see a world where he doesn't get a legit shot at leading the committee and of all the teams that have a committee if Sermon breaks away in a situation of Lance, Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo he could be an absolute animal even off of 18 carries
+ 2 receptions a game.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby sugbear65 » Wed May 05, 2021 8:06 am

be wrong, but has Shanahan ever drafted an RB earlier than Sermon? I'm not saying he's better than the top 3 backs but I do think he can pay off big and you're going to see him rising up boards for the next 3 months. If you can get him 2.01-2.05 in SF or back of round 1 in 1QB I'm pulling trig. I don't really see a world where he doesn't get a legit shot at leading the committee and of all the teams that have a committee if Sermon breaks away in a situation of Lance, Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo he could be an absolute animal even off of 18 carries
+ 2 receptions a game.
[/quote]

I’m not a Sermon truther or even particularly bullish on his prospects. But in answer of your question, since arriving in SF in 2017, the 49ers have only ever even drafted one RB, Joe Williams in the 4th round in Shanny’s first draft there. So I can agree with you that the draft capital, and trading up for a RB, is definitely against the norm for this staff and should be viewed as a positive.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed May 05, 2021 8:12 am

Sermon definitely has RB1 upside because of a scheme that's created countless stars in the past. Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, Alfred Morris, Devonta Freeman....and much more.

But, I'd argue that his draft pedigree isn't particularly meaningful, because Shanahan knows his scheme is the star and he can plug and play different guys to get the same result.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Ice » Wed May 05, 2021 8:15 am

He was selected as the 9th offensive rookie in my IDP draft and we only have to start 1 RB.

His stock is rising. Rb's went Harris 1.1, Williams 1.6, Etienne 1.8, Sermon 1.10. My guess is he will go even higher in non SF leagues that have to start 2 RB's.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Mike11 » Wed May 05, 2021 8:28 am

sugbear65 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:06 am be wrong, but has Shanahan ever drafted an RB earlier than Sermon? I'm not saying he's better than the top 3 backs but I do think he can pay off big and you're going to see him rising up boards for the next 3 months. If you can get him 2.01-2.05 in SF or back of round 1 in 1QB I'm pulling trig. I don't really see a world where he doesn't get a legit shot at leading the committee and of all the teams that have a committee if Sermon breaks away in a situation of Lance, Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo he could be an absolute animal even off of 18 carries
+ 2 receptions a game.
I’m not a Sermon truther or even particularly bullish on his prospects. But in answer of your question, since arriving in SF in 2017, the 49ers have only ever even drafted one RB, Joe Williams in the 4th round in Shanny’s first draft there. So I can agree with you that the draft capital, and trading up for a RB, is definitely against the norm for this staff and should be viewed as a positive.
[/quote]

That's sort of my thing too, like third round capital? Shanny is probs over the Mostert injuries, dude is 29 and behind him is gallman and wilson. If either were the solution why would he be so bullish that he trades up and is concerned someone else would snipe Sermon. Sermon also probably would've gone earlier if he was showcased more this year. The fact that he play sub 6 games and went round 3 is impressive.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby tresskid84 » Wed May 05, 2021 8:42 am

Definitely has upside, but a whole bunch of uncertainty too. In theory there's opportunity, but they also drafted elijah in the fifth, who is a perfect scheme fit as well, not to mention mostert, wilson, and gallman in the building. If Shanny had shown anything, hes gonns play who produces best. Could very well be sermon, but its too risky for me to take him in the first when theres a bunch of high end talent i liked better outside of landing spot
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby tresskid84 » Wed May 05, 2021 8:43 am

Mike11 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:28 am
sugbear65 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:06 am be wrong, but has Shanahan ever drafted an RB earlier than Sermon? I'm not saying he's better than the top 3 backs but I do think he can pay off big and you're going to see him rising up boards for the next 3 months. If you can get him 2.01-2.05 in SF or back of round 1 in 1QB I'm pulling trig. I don't really see a world where he doesn't get a legit shot at leading the committee and of all the teams that have a committee if Sermon breaks away in a situation of Lance, Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo he could be an absolute animal even off of 18 carries
+ 2 receptions a game.
I’m not a Sermon truther or even particularly bullish on his prospects. But in answer of your question, since arriving in SF in 2017, the 49ers have only ever even drafted one RB, Joe Williams in the 4th round in Shanny’s first draft there. So I can agree with you that the draft capital, and trading up for a RB, is definitely against the norm for this staff and should be viewed as a positive.
That's sort of my thing too, like third round capital? Shanny is probs over the Mostert injuries, dude is 29 and behind him is gallman and wilson. If either were the solution why would he be so bullish that he trades up and is concerned someone else would snipe Sermon. Sermon also probably would've gone earlier if he was showcased more this year. The fact that he play sub 6 games and went round 3 is impressive.
[/quote]

I mean, its not like he only played 6 games in his career, haha
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
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2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Avery » Wed May 05, 2021 9:06 am

I'm all in on Sermon.

I was targeting him pre-draft early 2nd but his landing spot had moved him up from mid to late 1st at best. Here's what he has working for him:
- (As mentioned) has decent draft capital
- No 49ers RB is under contract after this year and their leading RB is 29
- Very good fit to the scheme (experience with zone-blocking scheme that Shanahan likes to run)
- Going to a team that has a strong running game, good coaching and seems to be on the upswing
- I believe that Matt Waldman (of the RSP) had him ranked as his top RB in this draft. :shock:

I'm guessing, barring injury, we'll have to wait a year for him to emerge as the leader of the 49er RBs but I'm also guessing it will be worth the wait.

I'm buying/drafting everywhere I can over the plethora of 2nd tier WRs in this draft.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Mike11 » Wed May 05, 2021 9:14 am

Avery wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 9:06 am I'm all in on Sermon.

I was targeting him pre-draft early 2nd but his landing spot had moved him up from mid to late 1st at best. Here's what he has working for him:
- (As mentioned) has decent draft capital
- No 49ers RB is under contract after this year and their leading RB is 29
- Very good fit to the scheme (experience with zone-blocking scheme that Shanahan likes to run)
- Going to a team that has a strong running game, good coaching and seems to be on the upswing
- I believe that Matt Waldman (of the RSP) had him ranked as his top RB in this draft. :shock:

I'm guessing, barring injury, we'll have to wait a year for him to emerge as the leader of the 49er RBs but I'm also guessing it will be worth the wait.

I'm buying/drafting everywhere I can over the plethora of 2nd tier WRs in this draft.
Agree with this and to add to it, I think people take for granted that young fresh RBs can look so explosive relative to older RBs on a roster even if those older RBs have palpable talent. Any of these RBs will look good in the scheme, I don't think anyone debates that, I do think Shanny moved up because he wants this position to be resolved and have a guy (with Wilson and Gallman acting as insurance).
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Wed May 05, 2021 9:19 am

Draft capital shmaft capital. The real question is: did Kyle pound the table for Sermon or not?
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Mike11 » Wed May 05, 2021 9:25 am

ColdZealDonkeyStrike wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 9:19 am Draft capital shmaft capital. The real question is: did Kyle pound the table for Sermon or not?
Isn't that likely a yes if they traded up for him?
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Jigga94 » Wed May 05, 2021 9:40 am

tresskid84 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:42 am Definitely has upside, but a whole bunch of uncertainty too. In theory there's opportunity, but they also drafted elijah in the fifth, who is a perfect scheme fit as well, not to mention mostert, wilson, and gallman in the building. If Shanny had shown anything, hes gonns play who produces best. Could very well be sermon, but its too risky for me to take him in the first when theres a bunch of high end talent i liked better outside of landing spot
I agree with this. It's risky to think he will be the 1 of 5 guys to get the workhorse role. I know Mostert age, Gallman is JAG, Mitchell was drafted after, but we've seen before it doesn't really matter who you are in that offense. I think his hype will rise and he's likely RB4 for most people (RB5 for some) which means he will be over drafted as people love to reach for any RB.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby tresskid84 » Wed May 05, 2021 9:53 am

Jigga94 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 9:40 am
tresskid84 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:42 am Definitely has upside, but a whole bunch of uncertainty too. In theory there's opportunity, but they also drafted elijah in the fifth, who is a perfect scheme fit as well, not to mention mostert, wilson, and gallman in the building. If Shanny had shown anything, hes gonns play who produces best. Could very well be sermon, but its too risky for me to take him in the first when theres a bunch of high end talent i liked better outside of landing spot
I agree with this. It's risky to think he will be the 1 of 5 guys to get the workhorse role. I know Mostert age, Gallman is JAG, Mitchell was drafted after, but we've seen before it doesn't really matter who you are in that offense. I think his hype will rise and he's likely RB4 for most people (RB5 for some) which means he will be over drafted as people love to reach for any RB.
He was my rb5 before the draft and remains so for me. Carter was my 4 pre-draft and nothing really changed that for me.
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Ice » Wed May 05, 2021 9:54 am

Mike11 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 9:25 am
ColdZealDonkeyStrike wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 9:19 am Draft capital shmaft capital. The real question is: did Kyle pound the table for Sermon or not?
Isn't that likely a yes if they traded up for him?
His 10 Yard split at his pro day was great. Quickness is critical in zone schemes. I think he has a bright future.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Mike11 » Wed May 05, 2021 10:02 am

I get that people won't want to touch him because the backfield is murky but again... early round 2/mid round 2 in SF, I feel like this is a worthwhile risk.

The old adage is "teams tell you how they feel about players twice a year: 1) Free Agency 2) Draft Day"

This is how our draft went for reference:
Lawrence, Lance, Chase, Harris (me), Pitts, Fields, Etienne, Wilson, Williams, D Smith, Waddle, Mac, Batemen, Sermon (me)

I also had 2.07 and was ok taking whoever fell to me of the Moore's and Marshall. I ended up getting Elijah which I am happier about post draft than I was during it. I think it's going to depend on peoples RB depth charts and how many picks they have.
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Flex Ekeler, Etienne
WR AJB, Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle Mike Williams, Treylon Burks, Amari Rodgers, Nico Collins, Diontae Johnson, Mingo, Burks, Tillman, Batemen
TE TJ Hockenson Higbee Hurst


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