Trey Sermon

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Cameron Giles
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon May 10, 2021 8:31 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:37 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:20 am
Jigga94 wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 6:51 pm Vaulting Sermon over Williams is how you end up with Parris Campbell and not AJ Brown
I don't know. Williams doesn't strike me as so talented to maintain an edge over an RB with a better situation. Williams gives me some Duke Johnson vibes:

Duke: 4.54 (40Y), 1.61 (10Y), 121 broad jump, 5'9, 207
Javonte: 4.57 (40Y), 1.60 (10Y), 123 broad jump, 5'9, 212

But, those numbers are probably worse since it's Pro Day. I can see Williams being a decent PPR, committee back, but is he a long-term starter? I don't see it.
I’m dumbfounded. HITF do you watch tape of Javonte Williams and of Duke Johnson and even remotely see comparable players? I sincerely apologize for my tenor here, but I would really appreciate an explanation of your conclusions.
I think you're misinterpreting what I'm saying, because Duke Johnson as a prospect was solid:

- Narrowly missed out on the ACC rushing title in his junior year to Dalvin Cook
- Was a very good receiving back
- Had an elite college target share for a RB (93rd percentile)
- Explosive with the ball in his hands and known for having versatility
- Electric in space
- Good at making defenders miss
- Didn't have breakaway speed, but reached top acceleration in a hurry
- Good first step out the backfield

I see a lot of those things in Williams, and not just the athletic measureables (which are still very relevant).

All I'm saying is that for me, the above would not be so good to keep him over Sermon going to arguably the best RB scheme in the league that has made stars out of players with worse talent than Sermon.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Ice » Mon May 10, 2021 8:41 am

While I can see the Williams to Duke Comp based on size, I think Williams runs harder through the line. Duke has had more than 85 carries just once in his 6 seasons. He is good out of the backfield catching the ball but if you like Williams be sure and use a different comp and pray he is better in the NFL than Johnson as it relates to fantasy.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon May 10, 2021 8:51 am

Ice wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:41 am While I can see the Williams to Duke Comp based on size, I think Williams runs harder through the line. Duke has had more than 85 carries just once in his 6 seasons. He is good out of the backfield catching the ball but if you like Williams be sure and use a different comp and pray he is better in the NFL than Johnson as it relates to fantasy.
I think Duke's underutilization in the NFL makes us forget how good he was in college. Duke was a very hard runner himself and could play three downs.

Williams has the same uphill climb as a smaller RB with no breakaway speed. Maybe you hope he's more David Montgomery than Duke Johnson from a usage and productivity standpoint.

Either way, I would rather have an RB with a system that historically makes those types of RBs overachieve.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon May 10, 2021 9:00 am

I watch Williams and I see the prototypical N/S runner. He runs well in tight spaces between the tackles, can create in small seams, and has sufficient power to break tackles and get into the second and third level. He’s always running with lean and always gains extra when tackled. He a good receiver and can catch outside the frame of his body well, and is sturdy in pass protection though he has learning to do there.

I watch Johnson and I see a guy who bounces everything outside if there isn’t a gaping hole between the tackles. That’s the kiss of death at the next level to a guy without very good to great speed. He does not run well all inside if not presented with a huge lane and will actively avoid tight seams. When he gets to the next level he does have some wiggle and can create for himself in the open field. Good receiver but leaves a lot to be desired in pass protection. If I’m describing him in a few words, it’s a guy who isn’t physical and is an E/W runner. I see very little in common between he and Williams.

I’m looking at two very different runners when I watch them and I don’t see how Johnson is predictive of Williams in any way.

And similar measurables in shorts and tees between players means next to nothing, and if you have anything that says otherwise I’d love to be proven wrong.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon May 10, 2021 9:06 am

And how did we get here in the Sermon thread? If I’m a Sermon owner, IMO I’d better be prepared to hedge my bets and grab Mitchell earlier than his ADP is sitting, because that guy looks like a much better fit in the SF system to me and has the speed that Shanahan craves and Sermon doesn’t have. Don’t let that 201 weigh in fool you - Mitchell plays at 210-215 lbs and can carry that weight, unlike some guys who put it on for the combine/pro days and then can’t hold it through the dredges of off season/in season work loads. And like his dad, Shanahan loves to find RBs that everyone else bypassed and turn them into impact guys and will give those guys the opportunity needed to jump up the depth chart if they have the goods.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Ice » Mon May 10, 2021 9:09 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:51 am
Ice wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:41 am While I can see the Williams to Duke Comp based on size, I think Williams runs harder through the line. Duke has had more than 85 carries just once in his 6 seasons. He is good out of the backfield catching the ball but if you like Williams be sure and use a different comp and pray he is better in the NFL than Johnson as it relates to fantasy.
I think Duke's underutilization in the NFL makes us forget how good he was in college. Duke was a very hard runner himself and could play three downs.

Williams has the same uphill climb as a smaller RB with no breakaway speed. Maybe you hope he's more David Montgomery than Duke Johnson from a usage and productivity standpoint.

Either way, I would rather have an RB with a system that historically makes those types of RBs overachieve.
Interesting take. I won't be drafting Williams where he is going but may draft Sermon if he falls in my lap in the late 1st early 2nd.

Etienne is the RB I like and he did fall to me in my IDP draft. Figured to get a LB with that pick but the one I liked was gone.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon May 10, 2021 9:33 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:00 am I watch Williams and I see the prototypical N/S runner. He runs well in tight spaces between the tackles, can create in small seams, and has sufficient power to break tackles and get into the second and third level. He’s always running with lean and always gains extra when tackled. He a good receiver and can catch outside the frame of his body well, and is sturdy in pass protection though he has learning to do there.

I watch Johnson and I see a guy who bounces everything outside if there isn’t a gaping hole between the tackles. That’s the kiss of death at the next level to a guy without very good to great speed. He does not run well all inside if not presented with a huge lane and will actively avoid tight seams. When he gets to the next level he does have some wiggle and can create for himself in the open field. Good receiver but leaves a lot to be desired in pass protection. If I’m describing him in a few words, it’s a guy who isn’t physical and is an E/W runner. I see very little in common between he and Williams.

I’m looking at two very different runners when I watch them and I don’t see how Johnson is predictive of Williams in any way.

And similar measurables in shorts and tees between players means next to nothing, and if you have anything that says otherwise I’d love to be proven wrong.
In 2018 and 2019, Johnson averaged 2.7 and 2.8 yards after contact, which is a pretty good number. The idea that he wasn't or isn't a physical runner just isn't true. He made defenders miss in space, had good wiggle, and his top-end acceleration allowed him to get to levels in a hurry, even if he didn't have the elite breakaway speed to finish.

It's not an exact, look in the mirror comparison, and you'll rarely find one for any player, but there are enough similarities that I think it's a relevant comparison in terms of possible career outcomes.

I only bring that comparison up to say that while I think Williams is solid, I don't think he's so talented that I'd take him before a 3rd round Shanahan back. Who knows, Sermon may be Joe Williams and do nothing, but I think the upside is in that system.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby ArrylT » Mon May 10, 2021 10:31 am

Just a quick comment that Joe Williams was a guy who once retired before he even finished college. Basically he was not someone whose life was football. My guess is that Joe Williams had no desire after his 2017 injury to bother going through the rehab grind and try to stick with the NFL.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... off-hopes/

Trey Sermon on the other hand changed schools to ensure he remained a viable NFL option and fulfill a college dream of playing for the Buckeyes. Assuming he remains as motivated - he seems like the type of guy who will work to ensure he reaches the top of the chart in SF in a short period of time (ie less than 1 year).

https://www.buckeyextra.com/sports/2020 ... tball-team
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby dustyroads » Mon May 10, 2021 12:09 pm

Gimme Elijah Mitchell in the late 3rd/early 4th nine out of ten times over Sermon late 1st/ early 2nd. I think at least half the optimism for Sermon is in the situation, so Mitchell's ADP value difference to me is much greater (IOW a better deal) than any real skill/talent difference IMO. I think the SF backfield is already an "any given Sunday" kind of deal, so I'll take the huge draft capital discount with Mitchell.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Mike11 » Thu May 27, 2021 10:19 am

Wilson out means less competition, this is shaping up to be very interesting. Sermons value is going to continue to rise. Wheels on the bus go round and round...
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby DJB » Fri May 28, 2021 5:21 am

His ADP sits at the 1.08 currently and rising...
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Jigga94 » Fri May 28, 2021 5:25 am

DJB wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 5:21 am His ADP sits at the 1.08 currently and rising...
What's the highest he goes? 1.06 in a RB scarce league? Behind the big 3 and Chase and Pitts? Getting pretty pricey

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri May 28, 2021 5:33 am

DJB wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 5:21 am His ADP sits at the 1.08 currently and rising...
Well, Lacy’s ADP was 1.01 and Hyde’s was 1.05 the following season. Seems like history just keeps repeating itself with these kinds of RBs.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri May 28, 2021 6:41 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 5:33 am
DJB wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 5:21 am His ADP sits at the 1.08 currently and rising...
Well, Lacy’s ADP was 1.01 and Hyde’s was 1.05 the following season. Seems like history just keeps repeating itself with these kinds of RBs.
Eddie Lacy and Carlos Hyde weighed 250 and 230.

Trey Sermon weighs 215 and isn’t any faster than those guys. He weighs the same as Etienne, who’s two inches shorter.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri May 28, 2021 7:04 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 6:41 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 5:33 am
DJB wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 5:21 am His ADP sits at the 1.08 currently and rising...
Well, Lacy’s ADP was 1.01 and Hyde’s was 1.05 the following season. Seems like history just keeps repeating itself with these kinds of RBs.
Eddie Lacy and Carlos Hyde weighed 250 and 230.

Trey Sermon weighs 215 and isn’t any faster than those guys. He weighs the same as Etienne, who’s two inches shorter.
Okay. FWIW I don’t expect Etienne to maintain that soft weight he put on for his pro day when the rigors of the football season set in.

Watch all 3 run in college. They are almost indistinguishable in their traits, style, abilities and decision making. The difference with Sermon is that Ds are even faster now than they were when the former 2 entered the league.


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