Yeah perhaps I worded it poorly.Shoreline Steamers wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 2:02 pm I've said it earlier. I won't reach for Sermon, but if he's there for me at 1.12 I'll consider him among the other options I have. I think he's underrated. But we'll see.
As for the above comment by Vcize, I'm sure you're aware of Waldman since he's been at FBG for a number of years. I like to visit that site too, mostly for re-draft. He has also been writing the RSP for something like 13-15 years (maybe more?). So you know he's not some Johnny-come-lately who people only know about because of his big whiff on Hakeem Butler. People have known about what he does for some time.
We all miss from time to time, and I think from reading the RSP, the point is that he follows his process and doesn't deviate. He believes in it. He also acknowledges that the results don't always align with the process. Hence, the Hakeem Butlers of the NFL world. There's a number of factors that determine whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level, talent and opportunity being only two of them. Nobody can discern from tape what a player's work ethic is. Is the player motivated to be great, or just happy to get into the league? Are their personal habits including diet, workout regimen, and social life (partying, staying out late, people they hang out with) conducive to success in the NFL? Are they smart enough to learn advanced football concepts once in the NFL, or have they got by on sheer talent/athleticism prior to being drafted?
We, including Waldman, really can't know any of that. It's all guesswork. On the flip side, he was also higher than consensus on guys like Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, Nick Chubb, Michael Thomas, and Travis Kelce than many other analysts. Those are just examples off the top of my head.
I don't take the RSP as gospel, and neither should anyone else. Waldman is the first person to tell you so if you read his publication. But to say he's where he's at on the rookie scouting landscape because of some terrible "hot-takes" seems disingenuous, since you're familiar with the other work he does at FBG.
I think it will be interesting to see if he's anywhere close as to what Trey Sermon becomes in the NFL.
I didn't mean to say that's the only reason anyone knows of him, just that those hot takes, largely Butler, are what made him "mainstream". That's what the difference is between him being one of dozens if not hundreds of analysts that get nitty gritty every year but only the truly hardcore know about, to a guy who's name is regularly bandied about on every FF board as some kind of source of special prognostication where having him on the same side as you about a particular player is thought of as a major point in your favor (royal "you", not you in particular).
Sorry if I was unclear on that, and it's not my intent to attack him or anything it's just an interesting path I've seen of his career as someone who is into the nitty gritty and has followed him and a lot of guys very similar to him for a long time. I don't think his takes on players are really any better or have any higher hit rate than any of the dozens of guys he's worked with for the last decade+, or even some of the better forum posters. His name has just risen to popularity via other artificial means and his takes are now treated as if he has some great hit rate or something.
To be fair that's pretty common anywhere, right down to ESPN/NFLN analysts who get the job over another guy largely because they have better on camera charisma, yet we treat them as if they got the job because they are actually better at picking the right guy.