Trey Sermon

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Vcize
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Vcize » Sat May 08, 2021 2:27 pm

Shoreline Steamers wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:02 pm I've said it earlier. I won't reach for Sermon, but if he's there for me at 1.12 I'll consider him among the other options I have. I think he's underrated. But we'll see.

As for the above comment by Vcize, I'm sure you're aware of Waldman since he's been at FBG for a number of years. I like to visit that site too, mostly for re-draft. He has also been writing the RSP for something like 13-15 years (maybe more?). So you know he's not some Johnny-come-lately who people only know about because of his big whiff on Hakeem Butler. People have known about what he does for some time.

We all miss from time to time, and I think from reading the RSP, the point is that he follows his process and doesn't deviate. He believes in it. He also acknowledges that the results don't always align with the process. Hence, the Hakeem Butlers of the NFL world. There's a number of factors that determine whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level, talent and opportunity being only two of them. Nobody can discern from tape what a player's work ethic is. Is the player motivated to be great, or just happy to get into the league? Are their personal habits including diet, workout regimen, and social life (partying, staying out late, people they hang out with) conducive to success in the NFL? Are they smart enough to learn advanced football concepts once in the NFL, or have they got by on sheer talent/athleticism prior to being drafted?

We, including Waldman, really can't know any of that. It's all guesswork. On the flip side, he was also higher than consensus on guys like Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, Nick Chubb, Michael Thomas, and Travis Kelce than many other analysts. Those are just examples off the top of my head.

I don't take the RSP as gospel, and neither should anyone else. Waldman is the first person to tell you so if you read his publication. But to say he's where he's at on the rookie scouting landscape because of some terrible "hot-takes" seems disingenuous, since you're familiar with the other work he does at FBG.

I think it will be interesting to see if he's anywhere close as to what Trey Sermon becomes in the NFL.
Yeah perhaps I worded it poorly.

I didn't mean to say that's the only reason anyone knows of him, just that those hot takes, largely Butler, are what made him "mainstream". That's what the difference is between him being one of dozens if not hundreds of analysts that get nitty gritty every year but only the truly hardcore know about, to a guy who's name is regularly bandied about on every FF board as some kind of source of special prognostication where having him on the same side as you about a particular player is thought of as a major point in your favor (royal "you", not you in particular).

Sorry if I was unclear on that, and it's not my intent to attack him or anything it's just an interesting path I've seen of his career as someone who is into the nitty gritty and has followed him and a lot of guys very similar to him for a long time. I don't think his takes on players are really any better or have any higher hit rate than any of the dozens of guys he's worked with for the last decade+, or even some of the better forum posters. His name has just risen to popularity via other artificial means and his takes are now treated as if he has some great hit rate or something.

To be fair that's pretty common anywhere, right down to ESPN/NFLN analysts who get the job over another guy largely because they have better on camera charisma, yet we treat them as if they got the job because they are actually better at picking the right guy.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Sat May 08, 2021 2:46 pm

Vcize wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:27 pm Yeah perhaps I worded it poorly.

I didn't mean to say that's the only reason anyone knows of him, just that those hot takes, largely Butler, are what made him "mainstream". That's what the difference is between him being one of dozens if not hundreds of analysts that get nitty gritty every year but only the truly hardcore know about, to a guy who's name is regularly bandied about on every FF board as some kind of source of special prognostication where having him on the same side as you about a particular player is thought of as a major point in your favor (royal "you", not you in particular).

Sorry if I was unclear on that, and it's not my intent to attack him or anything it's just an interesting path I've seen of his career as someone who is into the nitty gritty and has followed him and a lot of guys very similar to him for a long time. I don't think his takes on players are really any better or have any higher hit rate than any of the dozens of guys he's worked with for the last decade+, or even some of the better forum posters. His name has just risen to popularity via other artificial means and his takes are now treated as if he has some great hit rate or something.

To be fair that's pretty common anywhere, right down to ESPN/NFLN analysts who get the job over another guy largely because they have better on camera charisma, yet we treat them as if they got the job because they are actually better at picking the right guy.
I get where you're coming from, and especially agree with the bolded part. So true! Not to bash on the guy too hard, but Mike Mayock was a pretty highly regarded draft guru on the NFL Network before becoming the Raiders GM. And his drafts haven't been head and shoulders above the competition either.

Full disclosure. I thought I was getting a value on Butler near the middle of the 2nd-round when he came out. Guess I should have traded that pick for a bag of Chee-Tos. :wall:
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby tresskid84 » Sat May 08, 2021 3:16 pm

As an Eagles fan, I really hope Hakeem Butler still has a chance to not bust, lol . . . but back to Trey Sermon, like with Elijah Mitchell, I think the scheme is a great fit, but he is still my 2.02 in non-sf. He definitely moved to the top of his tier for me, but I just can't justifying moving him beyond that when the guys I have ahead of him I already had ranked better (pre-draft) and their draft capital was equal to or better than Sermon.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby lostcause » Sun May 09, 2021 1:35 pm

I am not a huge fan of Sermon's game translating to the NFL level and was surprised the 49ers jumped to get him. He looked decent-good for most of his senior year, but was sitting behind Master Teague for most of the year. His stats are super inflated by the Northwestern game. Granted, he looked dominant in that game, but the defense had keyed into Fields (who was having a miserable game) and they ultimately took the ball out of his hands and kept it on the ground. He pounded again against Clemson, but that was it. He can read blocks and he's got good physicality, but I personally don't see it translating to the next level at an elite level.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby RoyalPalmer » Sun May 09, 2021 4:39 pm

Would anyone take Sermon over Williams? Am I over thinking landing spot? I've done this before with Royce Freeman over Chubb, but damn do I love Sermon landing in SF. Maybe it's more of being burned by the Bronco's before.
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WR: Ja'Marr Chase, Keenan Allen, Drake London, Brandon Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, Marvin Jones, Paris Campbell, Donovon Peoples-Jones
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby broncohead » Sun May 09, 2021 5:12 pm

RoyalPalmer wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 4:39 pm Would anyone take Sermon over Williams? Am I over thinking landing spot? I've done this before with Royce Freeman over Chubb, but damn do I love Sermon landing in SF. Maybe it's more of being burned by the Bronco's before.
I think Williams is more talented overall. You may like the landing spot better but Williams did have better draft capital. Id go with your pre-draft rankings
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun May 09, 2021 5:44 pm

RoyalPalmer wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 4:39 pm Would anyone take Sermon over Williams? Am I over thinking landing spot? I've done this before with Royce Freeman over Chubb, but damn do I love Sermon landing in SF. Maybe it's more of being burned by the Bronco's before.
I'd rather take my chances with Shanahan's run scheme

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby dark_knite03 » Sun May 09, 2021 6:31 pm

RoyalPalmer wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 4:39 pm Would anyone take Sermon over Williams? Am I over thinking landing spot? I've done this before with Royce Freeman over Chubb, but damn do I love Sermon landing in SF. Maybe it's more of being burned by the Bronco's before.
Give me the back with the draft capital and 3 down skill set. Gordon will be gone after this season. 49ers take the hour hand approach to much to invest that kind of capital in a rb. I figure there will be weeks this season sermon looks like the better choice but long term it's williams.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Jigga94 » Sun May 09, 2021 6:51 pm

Vaulting Sermon over Williams is how you end up with Parris Campbell and not AJ Brown

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby RoyalPalmer » Sun May 09, 2021 7:55 pm

Went with Williams. Time will tell, but this wasn't a debate I wanted to be in. Williams fell to 2.01 in a 12 team SF league. The Gordon owner drafted Waddle with the 1.11. I was thinking it was going to be Sermon or Bateman/Waddle for sure.

I think the 2021 draft will come down to four "wins" of draft ADP:
Bateman vs Waddle
Harris vs ETN
Lance vs Fields vs Wilson
And to a lesser extent Williams vs Sermon


What's interesting is that it's all for very different reasons. This draft feels unbelievably similar to 2018. Bunch of great QB prospects, bunch of mid WR prospects, bunch of RBs with questionable landing spots.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Mike11 » Mon May 10, 2021 5:29 am

I like Sermon a lot but he’s still my RB 4. In superflex I think you have to take the five qbs, other 3 rbs and chase, smith, waddle, pitts over him and possibly batemen. That puts him at 13/14 overall and I don’t see it climbing too much. In 1 QB ignoring the five qbs I think there’s easily a debate he should be back end of the first material at the 1.08-1.10 range
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Ice » Mon May 10, 2021 5:36 am

In our draft the top 4 RB's went
1.1 Harris
1.6 Williams
1.8 Etienne
1.10 Sermon

IDP draft non SF. The 1.6 owner also had Gordon. Thought that was interesting especially since he is a Jags fan.

Think you made the right choice but I get the pull of SF offensive system although with Lance he could actually vulture a lot of TD's on the ground in the near future.
Last edited by Ice on Mon May 10, 2021 7:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon May 10, 2021 6:58 am

Here’s ours. 14 teamer IDP, No SF, incremental ppr w/ TE premium (0.5 RB, 1.5 TE, 1.0 all others):

1.03 Harris
1.05 Williams
1.07 Etienne
2.02 Sermon

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon May 10, 2021 7:20 am

Jigga94 wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 6:51 pm Vaulting Sermon over Williams is how you end up with Parris Campbell and not AJ Brown
I don't know. Williams doesn't strike me as so talented to maintain an edge over an RB with a better situation. Williams gives me some Duke Johnson vibes:

Duke: 4.54 (40Y), 1.61 (10Y), 121 broad jump, 5'9, 207
Javonte: 4.57 (40Y), 1.60 (10Y), 123 broad jump, 5'9, 212

But, those numbers are probably worse since it's Pro Day. I can see Williams being a decent PPR, committee back, but is he a long-term starter? I don't see it.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon May 10, 2021 7:37 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:20 am
Jigga94 wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 6:51 pm Vaulting Sermon over Williams is how you end up with Parris Campbell and not AJ Brown
I don't know. Williams doesn't strike me as so talented to maintain an edge over an RB with a better situation. Williams gives me some Duke Johnson vibes:

Duke: 4.54 (40Y), 1.61 (10Y), 121 broad jump, 5'9, 207
Javonte: 4.57 (40Y), 1.60 (10Y), 123 broad jump, 5'9, 212

But, those numbers are probably worse since it's Pro Day. I can see Williams being a decent PPR, committee back, but is he a long-term starter? I don't see it.
I’m dumbfounded. HITF do you watch tape of Javonte Williams and of Duke Johnson and even remotely see comparable players? I sincerely apologize for my tenor here, but I would really appreciate an explanation of your conclusions.


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