Terrace Marshall Jr

[juke05]

this is probably a tangent, but is anyone else, idk, 'bothered'? by breakout ages being extrapolated over a full season? Playerprofiler lists Marshall's BOA as 19.2 (86th percentile), but if you look at his actual full season stats for 2019 (his age 19.2 season), his 671 yards and 13 tds compared to LSU's full season stats (which are bonkers: 6,024 yds, 61 tds) equate to only a 16.2% dominator. He didn't 'truly' breakout (> 20% dominator) until 2020, so his true breakout age should be 20.2, which is 58th percentile.

With Marshall, it doesn't bother me much at all because a) he played 12 games in 2019 which is basically a full season b) he was behind JJ and chase as already mentioned, and c) he pretty much smashes every other analytical/athletic box. But with guys like waddle, playerprofiler is giving him a BOA of 21.8 which would imply he broke out in 2020...he really only appeared in 6 out of Alabama's 13 games in 2020, and only really played 4 (got hurt early in week 5 and barely played in the natty). His true dominator for 2020 was only 11.1%, and he technically never broke out using full season stats - his highest true dominator rating was 15.5% his freshman year (age 19.8 season). I know he had a great 4-game stretch to start 2020, but to say he "broke out" with that sample size is kinda suspect to me.

Apologies for escalating the nerd level in this thread. I love Marshall though, I just think if you're looking for that prototypical alpha analytical WR, he's firmly #3 behind chase and bateman. I think Bateman is the real value to be had - his true dominator was 28%, 36%, and 31%, respectively for his three years, and I also think that the 'poor situation' thing in Baltimore is overblown.

[CGW]

this is probably a tangent, but is anyone else, idk, 'bothered'? by breakout ages being extrapolated over a full season? Playerprofiler lists Marshall's BOA as 19.2 (86th percentile), but if you look at his actual full season stats for 2019 (his age 19.2 season), his 671 yards and 13 tds compared to LSU's full season stats (which are bonkers: 6,024 yds, 61 tds) equate to only a 16.2% dominator. He didn't 'truly' breakout (> 20% dominator) until 2020, so his true breakout age should be 20.2, which is 58th percentile.

With Marshall, it doesn't bother me much at all because a) he played 12 games in 2019 which is basically a full season b) he was behind JJ and chase as already mentioned, and c) he pretty much smashes every other analytical/athletic box. But with guys like waddle, playerprofiler is giving him a BOA of 21.8 which would imply he broke out in 2020...he really only appeared in 6 out of Alabama's 13 games in 2020, and only really played 4 (got hurt early in week 5 and barely played in the natty). His true dominator for 2020 was only 11.1%, and he technically never broke out using full season stats - his highest true dominator rating was 15.5% his freshman year (age 19.8 season). I know he had a great 4-game stretch to start 2020, but to say he "broke out" with that sample size is kinda suspect to me.

Apologies for escalating the nerd level in this thread. I love Marshall though, I just think if you're looking for that prototypical alpha analytical WR, he's firmly #3 behind chase and bateman. I think Bateman is the real value to be had - his true dominator was 28%, 36%, and 31%, respectively for his three years, and I also think that the 'poor situation' thing in Baltimore is overblown.

We often use per game scoring for quite a bit of what we do in fantasy evaluation. While I understand wanting season long production, per game usage over an extended period is just as valuable, especially when the reason for shortened seasons is an injury.

I think I'd be more skeptical if it was a one or two game sample size, not 19 games in 2019 and 2020.

[jordanzs]

I was just on the clock at 1.11, debating Marshall Jr. versus Elijah Moore.

I went with Marshall.

[jcc6fd]

I was just on the clock at 1.11, debating Marshall Jr. versus Elijah Moore.

I went with Marshall.

I feel like that’s who I’ll be debating with my first as well. I’m leaning Marshall based on upside

[jordanzs]

I was just on the clock at 1.11, debating Marshall Jr. versus Elijah Moore.

I went with Marshall.

I feel like that’s who I’ll be debating with my first as well. I’m leaning Marshall based on upside

I'll admit, I don't watch college so I'm not tied to either.

Next time I have that same decision, I'll probably go with Moore just to spread the risk & spread the reward.

[Jigga94]

I'm surprised to not see a thread too. Marshall is probably the greatest player to talk about right now with draft capital, measurables, and situation. What Cameron stated is just a snippet of what's so great about him.

Guy broke out behind actual superstars like Chase and Jefferson

Someone else posted this a while ago. Was it you? Because this alone made me open my eyes the last time I read it.

And yeah, the injuries. I always forget about that. Always scares me.

It's impressive for sure. I usually try and see the "didn't break out because of x and y players being there" a la BAMA WR and Elijah Moore playing with AJB and DK. But Marshall has a great profile. I really can't poke many holes and he's at worst my WR6

[Ice]

FYI he just went 2.7 in our IDP rookie draft. Defensive players were selected 1.7,1.12,2.5, & 2.6 in front of him. This is no surprise given our scoring but he was the 5th WR taken so his stock is still pretty high.

[dustyroads]

I think a lot of people have E.Moore side by side with Marshall in their rankings, and in this thread and elsewhere I tend to see more people leaning Marshall. What if Crowder leaves the Jets? Would that be enough of a situation bump to really separate the two for you guys? (I already have Moore ahead of Marshall, so I'm kinda hoping Crowder stays and Moore continues falling a bit later in drafts because of competition and the "Jets stink" factor).

[Jigga94]

I think a lot of people have E.Moore side by side with Marshall in their rankings, and in this thread and elsewhere I tend to see more people leaning Marshall. What if Crowder leaves the Jets? Would that be enough of a situation bump to really separate the two for you guys? (I already have Moore ahead of Marshall, so I'm kinda hoping Crowder stays and Moore continues falling a bit later in drafts because of competition and the "Jets stink" factor).

I also have E. Moore right before Marsh. It's less to do about situation though as I feel like both places could be very different in the next few years. The NYJ aren't the same management as before, but we will see if that proves to be positive... Not only may the pass catchers be different, but the QB in CAR is still up in the air. If it is Darnold in the future, I'd assume he would have progressed. NYJ may seem more crowded as of now, but I think Moore has an easier path than Marshall. Mims and Davis both have 3 years left, but that doesn't mean they are guaranteed to play ahead of E More forever. I believe in CMC and DJM more than anyone in NYJ as well. CMC also has the huge contract. As much as people talk about Lamar capping Dobbins, CMC does the same to CAR WR.

Situations change though so I'm not writing Marshall off and neither have changed ranking for me post-draft. I like both of their games and could see talking myself into taking them over Waddle/Smith. I'd definitely try and trade down first though if given multiple WR options

[mild]

I think a lot of people have E.Moore side by side with Marshall in their rankings, and in this thread and elsewhere I tend to see more people leaning Marshall. What if Crowder leaves the Jets? Would that be enough of a situation bump to really separate the two for you guys?

I read this quite incredible reply regarding Marshall vs. the two Moores, and it touches on why having that prototypical X receiver size matters so much in the Pros. Hopefully some readers here enjoy it as much as I did.

I have Terrace Marshall ranked ahead of them both for a handful of reasons.

​

First off, Marshall has the size and athleticism to play all three WR positions - split end, flanker, and slot. Both Moores could never play split end given their size - it's not the end of the world but it makes it more difficult to get an elite snap share at that size. Here's a little breakdown on that, I'll try to keep it short.

​

The rules dictate that you need seven guys tethered to the line of scrimmage. The two widest are eligible to catch passes. Because you have to have your foot right on the line and can't go in motion or have any buffer, teams often use physical players for that position in tight ends or split ends. If you have two tight ends, then you can have two flankers (Colts would do this with tiny little TY Hilton). Now they have Michael Pittman to play split end so they can use him on one side and the TE on the other with TY at flanker or slot. So, unless you are just amazing at beating the jam despite your size, you are going to have a hard time in that role and your only path to being the other WR in two wide sets is to be the best flanker on the team. For example, Chris Godwin plays slot but he's also the best flanker on the team so in three wide he plays slot but in two wide he plays flanker opposite of split end Mike Evans. Conversely, on the Cowboys, Ceedee Lamb was slot (94% of this snaps were played at slot). But, for his rookie year, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup split time at split end and flanker and Ceedee only played slot essentially so he only played 64% of the overall snaps. He was the guy who came off the field for two WR sets which capped his upside. That could flip this year where it's Amari and Ceedee in two WR sets or, like Godwin behind DJax, Lamb might have to wait until his third year to truly break out when Gallup is gone. This post isn't about speculating on that.

​

Beyond that, we just watched Matt Rhule bring in HIS GUY from Temple in Robby Anderson and use him the way he knows how to use him. Now Joe Brady gets to bring in his guy from LSU in Terrace Marshall - and he knows the offense and knows how to use him. Because of that, I could see Terrace Marshall both having a faster path to success AND a higher ceiling if he can be the second WR with DJ Moore fairly quickly. Robby Anderson is on a one year deal, turns 28 next week. Even if they bring Anderson back, that team used one of the most highly consolidated snaps shares of any team with a lot of three WR sets. They don't use a fullback and they just lost blocking tight end Chris Manhertz to free agency so I don't see a lot of two tight end sets with Ian Thomas and Dan Arnold. Do you?

​

With the other guys, I think they have pretty high floors as guys who can play slot right away but Elijah Moore needs to prove pretty quickly that A. he's better than Jamison Crowder and B. he deserves to be out there in two WR sets over one of Corey Davis or Denzel Mims. Given that Mims and Corey Davis are both literally half a foot taller than him, Elijah Moore needs to be downright nasty to be a better red zone option at least. I like Elijah Moore a lot so I believe that is possible - I have Moore and Bateman right behind Marshall. With Rondale Moore, that team uses a lot of three wide and even four wide but the concern for me is his role. DeAndre Hopkins is the alpha so that's already locked. If Moore is a slot guy, that would be great for PPR as he should get a lot of looks. If they use Moore as a speedy field stretcher however, that is going to limit him early on unless he can prove to be truly dynamic like Tyreek Hill. I don't think we need to discuss his size - it's been discussed to death. He's small, it's not the end of the world but it caps his ceiling.

[dustyroads]

I think a lot of people have E.Moore side by side with Marshall in their rankings, and in this thread and elsewhere I tend to see more people leaning Marshall. What if Crowder leaves the Jets? Would that be enough of a situation bump to really separate the two for you guys?

I read this quite incredible reply regarding Marshall vs. the two Moores, and it touches on why having that prototypical X receiver size matters so much in the Pros. Hopefully some readers here enjoy it as much as I did.

I have Terrace Marshall ranked ahead of them both for a handful of reasons.

​

First off, Marshall has the size and athleticism to play all three WR positions - split end, flanker, and slot. Both Moores could never play split end given their size - it's not the end of the world but it makes it more difficult to get an elite snap share at that size. Here's a little breakdown on that, I'll try to keep it short.

​

The rules dictate that you need seven guys tethered to the line of scrimmage. The two widest are eligible to catch passes. Because you have to have your foot right on the line and can't go in motion or have any buffer, teams often use physical players for that position in tight ends or split ends. If you have two tight ends, then you can have two flankers (Colts would do this with tiny little TY Hilton). Now they have Michael Pittman to play split end so they can use him on one side and the TE on the other with TY at flanker or slot. So, unless you are just amazing at beating the jam despite your size, you are going to have a hard time in that role and your only path to being the other WR in two wide sets is to be the best flanker on the team. For example, Chris Godwin plays slot but he's also the best flanker on the team so in three wide he plays slot but in two wide he plays flanker opposite of split end Mike Evans. Conversely, on the Cowboys, Ceedee Lamb was slot (94% of this snaps were played at slot). But, for his rookie year, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup split time at split end and flanker and Ceedee only played slot essentially so he only played 64% of the overall snaps. He was the guy who came off the field for two WR sets which capped his upside. That could flip this year where it's Amari and Ceedee in two WR sets or, like Godwin behind DJax, Lamb might have to wait until his third year to truly break out when Gallup is gone. This post isn't about speculating on that.

​

Beyond that, we just watched Matt Rhule bring in HIS GUY from Temple in Robby Anderson and use him the way he knows how to use him. Now Joe Brady gets to bring in his guy from LSU in Terrace Marshall - and he knows the offense and knows how to use him. Because of that, I could see Terrace Marshall both having a faster path to success AND a higher ceiling if he can be the second WR with DJ Moore fairly quickly. Robby Anderson is on a one year deal, turns 28 next week. Even if they bring Anderson back, that team used one of the most highly consolidated snaps shares of any team with a lot of three WR sets. They don't use a fullback and they just lost blocking tight end Chris Manhertz to free agency so I don't see a lot of two tight end sets with Ian Thomas and Dan Arnold. Do you?

​

With the other guys, I think they have pretty high floors as guys who can play slot right away but Elijah Moore needs to prove pretty quickly that A. he's better than Jamison Crowder and B. he deserves to be out there in two WR sets over one of Corey Davis or Denzel Mims. Given that Mims and Corey Davis are both literally half a foot taller than him, Elijah Moore needs to be downright nasty to be a better red zone option at least. I like Elijah Moore a lot so I believe that is possible - I have Moore and Bateman right behind Marshall. With Rondale Moore, that team uses a lot of three wide and even four wide but the concern for me is his role. DeAndre Hopkins is the alpha so that's already locked. If Moore is a slot guy, that would be great for PPR as he should get a lot of looks. If they use Moore as a speedy field stretcher however, that is going to limit him early on unless he can prove to be truly dynamic like Tyreek Hill. I don't think we need to discuss his size - it's been discussed to death. He's small, it's not the end of the world but it caps his ceiling.

Damn, if I had some reddit gold that gentleman would be getting it. Thanks for the share! I'd been steering clear of reddit post draft, but looks like there's still some good discussion going on /dynastyff.

Every year I tend to fall in love with a metrics darling, and this year it's him. Last year it was Bryan Edwards, Shenault the year before him, etc etc. And every year I hope I don't have the chance to take them in the draft lol. Because I know I will wind up taking them a bit higher than I should given the opportunity and wind up passing on someone who is just flat out more likely to succeed based on the critical analysis of stuff like that reddit post pointed out. Last year I got that chance and missed out on Aiyuk because of it. This year sitting with pick 11 overall I know I'll likely be there again, but also kind of hoping at least one of them goes before me so my choice is made for me.

[Patsfan86]

this is probably a tangent, but is anyone else, idk, 'bothered'? by breakout ages being extrapolated over a full season? Playerprofiler lists Marshall's BOA as 19.2 (86th percentile), but if you look at his actual full season stats for 2019 (his age 19.2 season), his 671 yards and 13 tds compared to LSU's full season stats (which are bonkers: 6,024 yds, 61 tds) equate to only a 16.2% dominator. He didn't 'truly' breakout (> 20% dominator) until 2020, so his true breakout age should be 20.2, which is 58th percentile.

With Marshall, it doesn't bother me much at all because a) he played 12 games in 2019 which is basically a full season b) he was behind JJ and chase as already mentioned, and c) he pretty much smashes every other analytical/athletic box. But with guys like waddle, playerprofiler is giving him a BOA of 21.8 which would imply he broke out in 2020...he really only appeared in 6 out of Alabama's 13 games in 2020, and only really played 4 (got hurt early in week 5 and barely played in the natty). His true dominator for 2020 was only 11.1%, and he technically never broke out using full season stats - his highest true dominator rating was 15.5% his freshman year (age 19.8 season). I know he had a great 4-game stretch to start 2020, but to say he "broke out" with that sample size is kinda suspect to me.

Apologies for escalating the nerd level in this thread. I love Marshall though, I just think if you're looking for that prototypical alpha analytical WR, he's firmly #3 behind chase and bateman. I think Bateman is the real value to be had - his true dominator was 28%, 36%, and 31%, respectively for his three years, and I also think that the 'poor situation' thing in Baltimore is overblown.

No

[Jigga94]

Nice post Mild. I overlooked the Brady-Marshall connection before. Food for thought

[sugbear65]

I’ll try not to hold it against him too much, situation changes quickly in the NFL. But ugh, that Carolina landing spot is putrid to me. I’ll put aside the fact they have Moore and Anderson in front of him. Anderson will prob be gone next year, and who’s to say Marshall isn’t just as, if not more, talented than them anyway.
It’s more the organization I don’t have faith in. It took them awhile to figure out Cam wasn’t the answer, especially an aging and beat up Cam. But to then go Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold in back to back seasons? Yuck. Why not draft your future franchise QB? Will they take one next year when they are inevitably picking early? Or ride out that guaranteed 5th year option and add “competition” like Andy Dalton or something. My guess is the latter. I just don’t have much faith in this organization.

[Jigga94]

this is probably a tangent, but is anyone else, idk, 'bothered'? by breakout ages being extrapolated over a full season? Playerprofiler lists Marshall's BOA as 19.2 (86th percentile), but if you look at his actual full season stats for 2019 (his age 19.2 season), his 671 yards and 13 tds compared to LSU's full season stats (which are bonkers: 6,024 yds, 61 tds) equate to only a 16.2% dominator. He didn't 'truly' breakout (> 20% dominator) until 2020, so his true breakout age should be 20.2, which is 58th percentile.

With Marshall, it doesn't bother me much at all because a) he played 12 games in 2019 which is basically a full season b) he was behind JJ and chase as already mentioned, and c) he pretty much smashes every other analytical/athletic box. But with guys like waddle, playerprofiler is giving him a BOA of 21.8 which would imply he broke out in 2020...he really only appeared in 6 out of Alabama's 13 games in 2020, and only really played 4 (got hurt early in week 5 and barely played in the natty). His true dominator for 2020 was only 11.1%, and he technically never broke out using full season stats - his highest true dominator rating was 15.5% his freshman year (age 19.8 season). I know he had a great 4-game stretch to start 2020, but to say he "broke out" with that sample size is kinda suspect to me.

Apologies for escalating the nerd level in this thread. I love Marshall though, I just think if you're looking for that prototypical alpha analytical WR, he's firmly #3 behind chase and bateman. I think Bateman is the real value to be had - his true dominator was 28%, 36%, and 31%, respectively for his three years, and I also think that the 'poor situation' thing in Baltimore is overblown.

1. I agree with Bateman > Marshall. The production is much different, but there are arguments to be had as to why

2. Someone else said it, but people use a per game basis for this. I forget who it was, but I asked a similar question about a previous prospect when looking at the #s. Now, that doesn't mean you can't look into the #s and put your own spin on it, just don't get too carried away. For example, I don't agree with Tutus BA because he had a 24/460/2 season his freshman year. Its 16% of passing yards and 20% of TD. 2 TD isn't special to me. I don't care if that was the teams only 2 TD lol. Now his SO year was much better so it shouldn't matter TOO much. At least, it's less of a big deal to me than his size