2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
Before you say "Well Duhhhh Covid" i just want you to ask yourself if that really is all that can be blamed for the Fantasy prognosticators being so far off from the NFL front offices? Sure the insane year that was 2020 and the opt outs and everything are the main reason the fantasy community didnt pick up on the fact that the NFL Really Really Really did not like this RB class, sure many fantasy people said it was bad, but this bad? I didnt hear much of that. We also didnt pick up on the fact that the NFL liked guys like Eskridge, Atwell, etc. Some of these Tes drafted out of nowhere as well. I just wonder if this is going to be more of a trend than just a one off "blame it on 2020" type of thing. The community always has a Hakeem Butler, a guy we like more than the NFL does, but this season was full of them. I just wonder if its at the point where the NFL and Fantasy are too far apart on what they evaluate and thats why something like this happens. I guess we will see in the coming years but i def think its something to monitor and i really dont think it can all be blamed on Covid 2020
Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
I don't think this year was so different from any previous. NFL GMs and coaches have far more information and different goals than the fantasy community. They have a plan for how they want their team built, which may not match up with the fantasy community's rankings.
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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
Interesting observation.
I’ll lead off by putting forth that NFL decision makers and FFers as a group are probably just about wrong as often as each other. It’s difficult to figure out which guys are going to have enough skill transfer to go along with the mental and physical aspects at the next level to succeed.
FFers sometimes are looking at completely different criteria than NFL guys also. NFL types often want their TEs to be blockers as well as receivers, where FFers could care less about blocking - they want the receiving numbers only. But blocking sometimes gets guys on the field, and opportunity is everything, and there is no opportunity sitting on the bench. NFL guys badly need good ST guys and will carry lesser skill players if they are ST animals. Most FFers don’t score return yds and the ones that do have those points diminished for obvious reasons. So NFL guys may favor good STers who are mediocre skill guys much more than FFers do.
There are other things - I’ll get into those later.
I’ll lead off by putting forth that NFL decision makers and FFers as a group are probably just about wrong as often as each other. It’s difficult to figure out which guys are going to have enough skill transfer to go along with the mental and physical aspects at the next level to succeed.
FFers sometimes are looking at completely different criteria than NFL guys also. NFL types often want their TEs to be blockers as well as receivers, where FFers could care less about blocking - they want the receiving numbers only. But blocking sometimes gets guys on the field, and opportunity is everything, and there is no opportunity sitting on the bench. NFL guys badly need good ST guys and will carry lesser skill players if they are ST animals. Most FFers don’t score return yds and the ones that do have those points diminished for obvious reasons. So NFL guys may favor good STers who are mediocre skill guys much more than FFers do.
There are other things - I’ll get into those later.
Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
I don't think this years draft was any more different between Fantasy and NFL values than any other year. It all roughly played out as I was expecting.
Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
Respectfully disagree, i think it was very different. We knew it would be due to COVID but i mean every other year before this the fantasy community has been in line pretty much with what rounds players will go in, never what teams, thats always a crap shoot, but the Fantasy and NFL community are pretty similar in projecting what rounds certain guys will go in. This year was very very different. I mean look at these RBs that went late day 3 or UDFA that were projected before that? Or the Wrs falling and some QBs rising. I feel like it was just all over the place, more so than usual.Pac_Eddy wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:30 am I don't think this year was so different from any previous. NFL GMs and coaches have far more information and different goals than the fantasy community. They have a plan for how they want their team built, which may not match up with the fantasy community's rankings.
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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
I think part of it is that there seems to be a saturation of talent right now. Moreso than most years.
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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
What was so much different? We've had DK, Kelvin Harmon, Bryan Edwards, Hakeem Butler and many others fall further than the fantasy community excepted in previous (non-Covid) years, what makes any of the falls and discrepancies any bigger this year? I don't see any real wild differences between what was expected and what the outcome was.Patsfan86 wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:52 amRespectfully disagree, i think it was very different. We knew it would be due to COVID but i mean every other year before this the fantasy community has been in line pretty much with what rounds players will go in, never what teams, thats always a crap shoot, but the Fantasy and NFL community are pretty similar in projecting what rounds certain guys will go in. This year was very very different. I mean look at these RBs that went late day 3 or UDFA that were projected before that? Or the Wrs falling and some QBs rising. I feel like it was just all over the place, more so than usual.Pac_Eddy wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:30 am I don't think this year was so different from any previous. NFL GMs and coaches have far more information and different goals than the fantasy community. They have a plan for how they want their team built, which may not match up with the fantasy community's rankings.
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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
Most NFL mock drafts had the top 5 RBs correct in Harris, ETN, Williams, Sermon, and Carter. Most mocks had the top 3 all being off the board by the early 2nd (which happened). Once you get past round 2, mock drafts typically fly out the window. Pretty much everyone was down on this RB class as a whole, both NFL and fantasy. Once you get past day 2 of the draft, its a crapshoot any player is fantasy relevant anyway so I don't really consider a day 3 pick being taken in the 7th when some had him mocked in the 4th as a big drop worth mentioning.Patsfan86 wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:52 amRespectfully disagree, i think it was very different. We knew it would be due to COVID but i mean every other year before this the fantasy community has been in line pretty much with what rounds players will go in, never what teams, thats always a crap shoot, but the Fantasy and NFL community are pretty similar in projecting what rounds certain guys will go in. This year was very very different. I mean look at these RBs that went late day 3 or UDFA that were projected before that? Or the Wrs falling and some QBs rising. I feel like it was just all over the place, more so than usual.Pac_Eddy wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:30 am I don't think this year was so different from any previous. NFL GMs and coaches have far more information and different goals than the fantasy community. They have a plan for how they want their team built, which may not match up with the fantasy community's rankings.
Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
I agree.Pac_Eddy wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:30 am I don't think this year was so different from any previous. NFL GMs and coaches have far more information and different goals than the fantasy community. They have a plan for how they want their team built, which may not match up with the fantasy community's rankings.
Many in Fantasy may think it is very different but that is because in fantasy we look at so few positions compared to the NFL and we way overvalue RB's, bigger type WR's, while undervaluing slot WR's as a general rule by so many.
The NFL has been changing quite a bit with the onslaught of college schemes due in some part to the hash mark difference which forces teams to scheme more roll outs and smaller quicker players on offense.
Pitt's and Smith are both good examples of Fantasy and NFL coming more together as both are going high in fantasy drafts. RB's are still going higher than they should IMO in fantasy but it understandable as fantasy is different.
Last edited by Ice on Mon May 03, 2021 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
Yeah I don't think it was that bad. In my list of 12 RBs that I liked, 11 were drafted in or near the exact round I thought they would go, with Hill being the only exception in the 7th that could possibly be attributed to outside factors that I hadn't considered.
It was a pretty standard draft imo.
It was a pretty standard draft imo.
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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
Maybe it's a little bit more than usual, but is it really THAT different this year?
For instance I just went back and looked at mizelle's 2019 pre-draft rookie rankings. It wasn't just Hakeem Butler (8th overall) that year. Kelvin Harmon was #5 that year. Damien Harris was the 3rd RB ahead of Miles Sanders. Everyone thought he was firmly locked into the 2nd round. Benny Snell (who many also projected 2nd round) ahead of Sanders as well. And similar to this year's guys we had Elijah Holyfield and Rodney Anderson that were top 15 rookies that just fell off the map during the draft (Anderson 6th round, Holyfield undrafted).
2019
Harmon, Mizelle #5 rookie - 6th round NFL draft
Butler, Mizelle #8 rookie - 4th round NFL draft
Holyfield #12 rookie - undrafted NFL draft
Snell #13 rookie - 4th round NFL draft
Anderson #16 rookie - 6th round NFL draft
Johnson #23 rookie - undrafted NFL draft
For instance I just went back and looked at mizelle's 2019 pre-draft rookie rankings. It wasn't just Hakeem Butler (8th overall) that year. Kelvin Harmon was #5 that year. Damien Harris was the 3rd RB ahead of Miles Sanders. Everyone thought he was firmly locked into the 2nd round. Benny Snell (who many also projected 2nd round) ahead of Sanders as well. And similar to this year's guys we had Elijah Holyfield and Rodney Anderson that were top 15 rookies that just fell off the map during the draft (Anderson 6th round, Holyfield undrafted).
2019
Harmon, Mizelle #5 rookie - 6th round NFL draft
Butler, Mizelle #8 rookie - 4th round NFL draft
Holyfield #12 rookie - undrafted NFL draft
Snell #13 rookie - 4th round NFL draft
Anderson #16 rookie - 6th round NFL draft
Johnson #23 rookie - undrafted NFL draft
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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
I think we feel this way almost every year, especially in years where there is more range in opinion on players. I recall a lot of talk after the 2018 draft because there was a lot of picks that people did not really like/understand/were surprised by, and several fantasy favorites (like ESB) who fell far, or out of the draft.
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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
I was actually going to create a post about how this community was more correct than in years past. I truly mean that. Maybe it's just me, but I'm surprised how "right" the community was.
Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?
I agree, I think the fantasy relevant players landed about in the order as expected, and in the rounds expected. I wasn't surprised by anything really after being on this forum all winter.
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