2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby Sriracha » Mon May 03, 2021 10:09 am

killer_of_giants wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 9:41 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 7:27 am the fantasy community didnt pick up on the fact that the NFL Really Really Really did not like this RB class, sure many fantasy people said it was bad, but this bad?
yes.
I don't understand this notion.

People said it was ETN, Harris, and Javonte and then a bunch of JAGs before the off-season began.

Then they talked themselves into a ton of RBs that inevitably disappointed in their pro days or are projected to be satellite backs at the NFL level (Jermar Jefferson, Michael Carter, Kenny Gainwell, Javian Hawkins).

ETN, Harris, and Javonte all got very good draft capital. The rest did not. Not a huge divide here at least.

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby CGW » Mon May 03, 2021 10:45 am

Sriracha wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 10:09 am
killer_of_giants wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 9:41 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 7:27 am the fantasy community didnt pick up on the fact that the NFL Really Really Really did not like this RB class, sure many fantasy people said it was bad, but this bad?
yes.
I don't understand this notion.

People said it was ETN, Harris, and Javonte and then a bunch of JAGs before the off-season began.

Then they talked themselves into a ton of RBs that inevitably disappointed in their pro days or are projected to be satellite backs at the NFL level (Jermar Jefferson, Michael Carter, Kenny Gainwell, Javian Hawkins).

ETN, Harris, and Javonte all got very good draft capital. The rest did not. Not a huge divide here at least.
Agreed, it was pretty much as advertised from everything I've seen. Haven't looked at ADP adjustments post draft, but I bet its fairly similar to the predraft rankings.

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby Patsfan86 » Mon May 03, 2021 11:23 am

Hmmmm everyone disagreeing with me, interesting. Maybe these boards did predict this, i admittedly have not been hanging around as much as i used to previously. Maybe this has been the chatter on here. I Just got away from these boards during Covid because in the beginning they became to Coviddy and arguing about all of it, so i left and came on less and less. So unfortunately i navigated over to the cesspool that is fantasy Twitter and this is where im getting this opinion from. All i saw on there was "Gainwell is gonna be great, Watchout for Kylin Hill" etc etc. And i literally heard nothing about Eskridge or Atwell and extremely little about Toney. So this draft really took me by surprise after the first round

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby Chwf3rd » Mon May 03, 2021 4:05 pm

Don't think it was that far off.

RBs: It was pretty obvious to most that there were 3 good RBs this year, some tertiary guys, and then really shallow after that. That's exactly how it played out. There was lots of wish-casting with guys like Jermar Jefferson, Kenneth Gainwell, Chuba Hubbard, and Javian Hawkins.

WRs: The top 3 guys got the top 10 draft capital as expected and a few others got the late 1st/2nd capital as well, as expected. While it was a little surprisng to see guys like Eskridge and Tutu go above some others, both of them were getting hype from NFL analysts. The WR class was always kinda shallow after the top 3 and the few late 1sts/early 2nd rounders.

TE: Brevin Jordan is the only real shock.

I think people need to pay more attention to NFL Draft analysts and less to dynasty football analysts. The former will help you predict draft capital more.
Team 1 - 12 team PPR
QB: MRyan, MJones, CNewton, RFitz
RB: SBarkley, DSwift, CAkers, JMixon, AJDillon, LMurray, DarWilliams, GBernard
WR: SDiggs, ACooper, BAiyuk, JJones, LShenault, BCooks, KToney, KHamler, VJefferson
TE: JSmith, ISmith, ZErtz

Team 2 - 16 team, PPR, SF
QB: JBurrow, CWentz, ZWilson, Jimmy G
RB: SBarkley, DSwift, CAkers, BSnell, TGurley, DGuice
WR: JChase, BAiyuk, CSutton, THiggins, JJeudy, JReagor, BEdwards
TE: ISmith, HarBryant, DSample, TTremble

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Mon May 03, 2021 4:12 pm

Patsfan86 wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 11:23 am Hmmmm everyone disagreeing with me, interesting. Maybe these boards did predict this, i admittedly have not been hanging around as much as i used to previously. Maybe this has been the chatter on here. I Just got away from these boards during Covid because in the beginning they became to Coviddy and arguing about all of it, so i left and came on less and less. So unfortunately i navigated over to the cesspool that is fantasy Twitter and this is where im getting this opinion from. All i saw on there was "Gainwell is gonna be great, Watchout for Kylin Hill" etc etc. And i literally heard nothing about Eskridge or Atwell and extremely little about Toney. So this draft really took me by surprise after the first round
Yeah, Twitter & Reddit fantasy football are a different breed. I've given both a couple tries but just don't like it. I use Twitter for news, but not analysis & discussion.
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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon May 03, 2021 4:23 pm

The QB class is another matter too:

The fantasy community seems to rate Fields/Lance just below Lawrence and Wilson as a bum closer to Mac Jones than those two while the NFL seems to have Lawrence-Wilson locked in 1-2:

https://twitter.com/CharleyCasserly/sta ... 9389944837

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby honcho55 » Mon May 03, 2021 11:10 pm

Agree with those saying it didn’t seem different. I’d like to see (or find myself) some hard data though, could be wrong.

And, I’ve always thought this interesting, and worth looking into: what are the numbers when there is a big disparity? Who’s more right?
main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
12 team. 2019 champ, 2020 runner up, ‘21 3rd
start 2SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT

QB: T Lawrence, K Cousins, R Wilson, Z Wilson
RB: K Walker, T Ettiene, JK Dobbins, D Gore, J Hasty, D Johnson, L Rountree
WR: JJ, AJB, A Cooper, Juju, C Kirk, J Dotson, N Westbrook-Ikhine, I McKenzie
TE. T Kelce, Pitts, Albert O, D Parham, J O’Shaunessy

1.03, 1.11, 2.02, 2.09
Extra 24 1st

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue May 04, 2021 1:09 am

sloth8u wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 9:05 am I was actually going to create a post about how this community was more correct than in years past. I truly mean that. Maybe it's just me, but I'm surprised how "right" the community was.
Yup. And Josh Norris set some sort of record for the most accurate 1st round mock draft. If anything, things went more “as planned” this year than others.

There are always random tes in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

Within NFL circles, Toney has been labeled a 1st round talent for a while now.

This is the first year I can remember where my top 9-10 players pre-draft and post-draft were virtually identical. Typically draft capital and landing spots cause a bunch of chaos. If you look at Mizelle adp, the top 11 pre combine, pre draft and post draft are identical, just slightly shuffled order.

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby Sriracha » Tue May 04, 2021 3:27 am

StripesOfKC wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 4:23 pm The QB class is another matter too:

The fantasy community seems to rate Fields/Lance just below Lawrence and Wilson as a bum closer to Mac Jones than those two while the NFL seems to have Lawrence-Wilson locked in 1-2:

https://twitter.com/CharleyCasserly/sta ... 9389944837
And the NFL teams are incentivized to tell the truth here.. how?

Based on 1) Lance being selected #3 overall while Fields dropped to #11
and 2) The Panthers only picking up Darnold's 5th year option after the draft (and having their choice of Fields or Jones)

I'd think it's likely that the NFL was much higher on Lance than what was reported here.

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby Oslo Oildrillers » Tue May 04, 2021 1:23 pm

Patsfan86 wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 11:23 am Hmmmm everyone disagreeing with me, interesting. Maybe these boards did predict this, i admittedly have not been hanging around as much as i used to previously. Maybe this has been the chatter on here. I Just got away from these boards during Covid because in the beginning they became to Coviddy and arguing about all of it, so i left and came on less and less. So unfortunately i navigated over to the cesspool that is fantasy Twitter and this is where im getting this opinion from. All i saw on there was "Gainwell is gonna be great, Watchout for Kylin Hill" etc etc. And i literally heard nothing about Eskridge or Atwell and extremely little about Toney. So this draft really took me by surprise after the first round
I've been catching up on Rotounderworld podcasts these last couple of weeks and the NFL draft was pretty much in tune with what was being voiced on that podcast already back in February-March. So I think podcasters and FF writers that had their finger on the pulse were quite on point with player draft ranges for this year.

But...the perception of this class changed pretty drastically over the past year. We knew last May that this RB class would have a few top guys but overall be pretty bad with no depth. However, the WR class seemed deeper and stronger on paper than what it currently looks to be. A year ago, Tamorrion, Seth Williams, Tylan Wallace, and Amon-Ra were all viewed as early day 2 picks. Sage Surratt looked like a day 2 player. Justyn Ross and Rashod Bateman were in the discussion for going in the top 10. Rondale Moore, Terrace Marshall, and Chris Olave were sometimes mocked in the mid/late 1st. All the way-too-early 2021 mocks I saw last offseason (Mel Kiper, Matt Miller etc) had 7-8 WRs going in the first round...........(!)

So what happened? Olave decided to return to school, Justyn Ross' career was almost ended by injury, Rondale Moore got injured again (sigh), some of the other top talents were questioned for their character, others didn't play the season, and on top of all that, so many players in this class disappointed at their pro day testing, either athletically or through their measurements. A bunch of these players suddenly lost 1-2 inches in height and 10-20 pounds. I'm not sure if that is related to covid, or if it was just a class where every college PR department was picking numbers out of their asses.

In last year's class, there were quite a few players that popped in their final college season. Aiyuk, Mims, CEH, Claypool...the draft class got stronger over the final season. In this year's class, there are basically none of those guys except for Javonte Williams, and instead, we lost some top players like Journey Brown and Justyn Ross. We have some late risers in the WR group this year as well, but they all have red flags through their age, archetype, size, and/or athletic testing so they're generally not very attractive fantasy investments.

If what you heard about draft capital did not match the actual NFL draft you might have been listening to people that held on to old perceptions of these players and didn't catch up to the NFL talk in the 3-4 months leading up to the draft, and how this weird covid season and general weirdness impacted this class.

I'm seeing so much talk in the dynasty community about how the rookie 2nd round is so bad this year and I'd like to pump the brakes on that. Given how good this WR and TE class was being viewed a year ago, and how weird this season was, I'll be holding out hope that these talented players are still talented. I find that the NFL and the fantasy community can tend to have too much recency bias and devalue players that end their college careers on a low note. In the past, this has allowed me to come away with players like Allen Robinson, Juju, and Tyler Boyd in the late 1st or early 2nd of rookie drafts that were college and devy superstars but peaked early in their college careers and got a little bit lost in the shuffle. If this class was being viewed as a historic WR class less than a year ago, I have a hard time believing that it suddenly turned into an average class. I'm willing to bet that there are some players drafted in round 3+ that will become major fantasy assets.

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby AussieMate » Tue May 04, 2021 6:00 pm

I find this community to be a largely more level headed than say twitter or Reddit, Reddit in particular have a bad habit of liking one guy therefore your guy is bleep, rather than liking both but having one higher. In particular Fields/Wilson. They seemed to have adopted Fields and refuse to believe teams rate Wilson higher and are more salty about that than even Lance going 3rd, I liked Fields/Wilson/Lance similarly with Wilson Lance only just above but damn, you get destroyed for even thinking they were all worthy of top 5 pick.

So it really depends on what fantasy community you're referring to in this, I don't think it was that different to other years, I think if you broke down the last 5 years they'd all have there differences but generally the Fantasy community only remember the ones they were right about and not the ones they were wrong about.

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby honcho55 » Tue May 04, 2021 11:45 pm

Maybe not relevant to the larger discussion here, but I do feel Wilson is at least slightly underrated by most fantasy circles.

1) I have him a full tier higher than darnold as a prospect. Feel free to search my post history on darnold, I wasn’t a huge fan. I did hedge saying something like “I suck at QB so he will Probly be a stud” but still, Wilson > Darnold by a solid bit for me.

2) situation. Jets are a clearly improving, possibly emerging team imo. Honestly won’t be surprised if they stay bottom barrel or move up to playoff caliber. I understand that take isn’t a strong stance haha, but I take it nonetheless. It’s a large improvement over Darnold Jets, which was 🤮

3) It’s been telegraphed a bit that Wilson was a target for trade ups, and/or a reason teams didn’t trade up (he wouldn’t be there). I feel like there’s at least possibly merit to this.

Anyways, just grabbed him at 1.09 in sig league and feel like it’s a rock solid bet. Worst case a 2nd ground value on a handful of years, best case? I have a Herbert vibe (who I also took in that league, just prematurely flipped for ‘profit’)
main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
12 team. 2019 champ, 2020 runner up, ‘21 3rd
start 2SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT

QB: T Lawrence, K Cousins, R Wilson, Z Wilson
RB: K Walker, T Ettiene, JK Dobbins, D Gore, J Hasty, D Johnson, L Rountree
WR: JJ, AJB, A Cooper, Juju, C Kirk, J Dotson, N Westbrook-Ikhine, I McKenzie
TE. T Kelce, Pitts, Albert O, D Parham, J O’Shaunessy

1.03, 1.11, 2.02, 2.09
Extra 24 1st

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby dustyroads » Wed May 05, 2021 5:53 am

Oslo Oildrillers wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 1:23 pm
I've been catching up on Rotounderworld podcasts these last couple of weeks and the NFL draft was pretty much in tune with what was being voiced on that podcast already back in February-March. So I think podcasters and FF writers that had their finger on the pulse were quite on point with player draft ranges for this year.

But...the perception of this class changed pretty drastically over the past year. We knew last May that this RB class would have a few top guys but overall be pretty bad with no depth. However, the WR class seemed deeper and stronger on paper than what it currently looks to be. A year ago, Tamorrion, Seth Williams, Tylan Wallace, and Amon-Ra were all viewed as early day 2 picks. Sage Surratt looked like a day 2 player. Justyn Ross and Rashod Bateman were in the discussion for going in the top 10. Rondale Moore, Terrace Marshall, and Chris Olave were sometimes mocked in the mid/late 1st. All the way-too-early 2021 mocks I saw last offseason (Mel Kiper, Matt Miller etc) had 7-8 WRs going in the first round...........(!)

So what happened? Olave decided to return to school, Justyn Ross' career was almost ended by injury, Rondale Moore got injured again (sigh), some of the other top talents were questioned for their character, others didn't play the season, and on top of all that, so many players in this class disappointed at their pro day testing, either athletically or through their measurements. A bunch of these players suddenly lost 1-2 inches in height and 10-20 pounds. I'm not sure if that is related to covid, or if it was just a class where every college PR department was picking numbers out of their asses.

In last year's class, there were quite a few players that popped in their final college season. Aiyuk, Mims, CEH, Claypool...the draft class got stronger over the final season. In this year's class, there are basically none of those guys except for Javonte Williams, and instead, we lost some top players like Journey Brown and Justyn Ross. We have some late risers in the WR group this year as well, but they all have red flags through their age, archetype, size, and/or athletic testing so they're generally not very attractive fantasy investments.

If what you heard about draft capital did not match the actual NFL draft you might have been listening to people that held on to old perceptions of these players and didn't catch up to the NFL talk in the 3-4 months leading up to the draft, and how this weird covid season and general weirdness impacted this class.

I'm seeing so much talk in the dynasty community about how the rookie 2nd round is so bad this year and I'd like to pump the brakes on that. Given how good this WR and TE class was being viewed a year ago, and how weird this season was, I'll be holding out hope that these talented players are still talented. I find that the NFL and the fantasy community can tend to have too much recency bias and devalue players that end their college careers on a low note. In the past, this has allowed me to come away with players like Allen Robinson, Juju, and Tyler Boyd in the late 1st or early 2nd of rookie drafts that were college and devy superstars but peaked early in their college careers and got a little bit lost in the shuffle. If this class was being viewed as a historic WR class less than a year ago, I have a hard time believing that it suddenly turned into an average class. I'm willing to bet that there are some players drafted in round 3+ that will become major fantasy assets.
Great post. I feel like this hits the nail exactly on the head. Especially the fact that in most years the post-bowl games hype train, underwear olympics, and the draft capital sprinkle a few new players names onto our lists, or at the very least give a significant bump (January's sleepers become April's 2nd rounders). This year just about all those events seemed to do more harm then good in general consensus. The best landing spot went to Harris, a consensus top 3 pick. It now made him a consensus top 2 pick lol. Guys who got picked higher than assumed and/or had good landing spots like Atwell, Palmer, Rodgers, Schwartz just aren't exciting people and moving up boards significantly. I am finding value in the 2nd round myself, but surrounded by more guys I really don't like than usual. At 2.05 going against consensus ranks there's pretty much one guy I would take, otherwise I'm reaching to a guy consensus has as a mid-3rd rounder.

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby CGW » Wed May 05, 2021 6:30 am

honcho55 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 11:45 pm Maybe not relevant to the larger discussion here, but I do feel Wilson is at least slightly underrated by most fantasy circles.

1) I have him a full tier higher than darnold as a prospect. Feel free to search my post history on darnold, I wasn’t a huge fan. I did hedge saying something like “I suck at QB so he will Probly be a stud” but still, Wilson > Darnold by a solid bit for me.

2) situation. Jets are a clearly improving, possibly emerging team imo. Honestly won’t be surprised if they stay bottom barrel or move up to playoff caliber. I understand that take isn’t a strong stance haha, but I take it nonetheless. It’s a large improvement over Darnold Jets, which was 🤮

3) It’s been telegraphed a bit that Wilson was a target for trade ups, and/or a reason teams didn’t trade up (he wouldn’t be there). I feel like there’s at least possibly merit to this.

Anyways, just grabbed him at 1.09 in sig league and feel like it’s a rock solid bet. Worst case a 2nd ground value on a handful of years, best case? I have a Herbert vibe (who I also took in that league, just prematurely flipped for ‘profit’)
Also grabbed him at 1.09 in a superflex league. Seems like he's falling further than I had expected in many leagues.

While I get the jets suck mentality, it can be said about pretty much any team before they become respectable. A friend of mine is a Patriots fan and all through high school it was a joke about how you could buy tickets for games in Foxborough for like $20 because no1 went to the games.

I'm not saying the Jets will be a future dynasty, but let's face it, Wilson is taking over a much better squad and has a much better coach than Darnold ever had. The jets have spent capital on the OL (which had its best rank in the Darnold era at #25 in 2018) and wide reciever weapons in the past two drafts. Davis, Mims, Crowder, and Moore are a pretty decent core.

He's also starting day 1, so we get to see what he's got sooner than later.

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby sugbear65 » Wed May 05, 2021 7:36 am

I agree with the consensus here, I didn’t really see a whole lot of surprising picks in the draft. For the most part, the skill position players all went in the expected ranges. Sure there was a couple surprise risers and fallers, but that happens every year, and were not any I would go so far as to call them extreme, or unwarranted.
If anything, some of the actual placement was kinda lackluster. Was hoping for some better situations, and that may be why the value seems a little off vs pre draft?
But to reference your posts, Toney was always a borderline 1st prospect. Wilson was there with Fields and Lance as QBs 2,3, & 4 in pretty much everyone’s ranks, in some order or another but closely lumped, with Jones a clear 5th. The TE class has been viewed as a strength, even past Pitts. Better than last years at least. And finally the “RB class is weak” was probably the most common narrative all offseason, that should be the least surprising one.


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