2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Sriracha
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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby Sriracha » Wed May 05, 2021 1:02 pm

honcho55 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 11:45 pm Maybe not relevant to the larger discussion here, but I do feel Wilson is at least slightly underrated by most fantasy circles.

1) I have him a full tier higher than darnold as a prospect. Feel free to search my post history on darnold, I wasn’t a huge fan. I did hedge saying something like “I suck at QB so he will Probly be a stud” but still, Wilson > Darnold by a solid bit for me.

2) situation. Jets are a clearly improving, possibly emerging team imo. Honestly won’t be surprised if they stay bottom barrel or move up to playoff caliber. I understand that take isn’t a strong stance haha, but I take it nonetheless. It’s a large improvement over Darnold Jets, which was 🤮

3) It’s been telegraphed a bit that Wilson was a target for trade ups, and/or a reason teams didn’t trade up (he wouldn’t be there). I feel like there’s at least possibly merit to this.

Anyways, just grabbed him at 1.09 in sig league and feel like it’s a rock solid bet. Worst case a 2nd ground value on a handful of years, best case? I have a Herbert vibe (who I also took in that league, just prematurely flipped for ‘profit’)
Wilson has always been getting a ton of hype. Anywhere from 2-4 was very common. Amazing arm talent; but for fantasy purposes I just prefer Lance's rushing ceiling more.

Before anyone hits me with "Wilson is so much safer" I'd like to point out that his breakout campaign came against a last minute hodgepodge of a schedule that was filled with cupcakes. He played one top 60 defense all year, and that was by far his worst game of the season (Coastal Carolina).. this wouldn't be that big of a deal because he just looked so damn good in 2020 if not for his splits vs power 5 bowl teams and everyone else; his entire career. Where his YPA drops from ~10 to 7 and his INT/TD ratio skyrockets.

Another player with similar Jekyll and Hyde stats throughout their college career? Drew Lock and he was correctly characterized as a high upside low floor player because he just had more tape vs better teams in the SEC and his warts were on full display.

Maybe Wilson had a Joe Burrow-esque off-season of development last year; but he did not prove he can overcome quality defensive players because he went 0 for 1 vs them.

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby StripesOfKC » Wed May 05, 2021 1:08 pm

Sriracha wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:02 pm
honcho55 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 11:45 pm Maybe not relevant to the larger discussion here, but I do feel Wilson is at least slightly underrated by most fantasy circles.

1) I have him a full tier higher than darnold as a prospect. Feel free to search my post history on darnold, I wasn’t a huge fan. I did hedge saying something like “I suck at QB so he will Probly be a stud” but still, Wilson > Darnold by a solid bit for me.

2) situation. Jets are a clearly improving, possibly emerging team imo. Honestly won’t be surprised if they stay bottom barrel or move up to playoff caliber. I understand that take isn’t a strong stance haha, but I take it nonetheless. It’s a large improvement over Darnold Jets, which was 🤮

3) It’s been telegraphed a bit that Wilson was a target for trade ups, and/or a reason teams didn’t trade up (he wouldn’t be there). I feel like there’s at least possibly merit to this.

Anyways, just grabbed him at 1.09 in sig league and feel like it’s a rock solid bet. Worst case a 2nd ground value on a handful of years, best case? I have a Herbert vibe (who I also took in that league, just prematurely flipped for ‘profit’)
Wilson has always been getting a ton of hype. Anywhere from 2-4 was very common. Amazing arm talent; but for fantasy purposes I just prefer Lance's rushing ceiling more.

Before anyone hits me with "Wilson is so much safer" I'd like to point out that his breakout campaign came against a last minute hodgepodge of a schedule that was filled with cupcakes. He played one top 60 defense all year, and that was by far his worst game of the season (Coastal Carolina).. this wouldn't be that big of a deal because he just looked so damn good in 2020 if not for his splits vs power 5 bowl teams and everyone else; his entire career. Where his YPA drops from ~10 to 7 and his TD/INT ratio skyrockets.

Another player with similar Jekyll and Hyde stats throughout their college career? Drew Lock and he was correctly characterized as a high upside low floor player because he just played better teams in the SEC and his warts were on full display.

Maybe Wilson had a Joe Burrow-esque off-season of development last year; but he did not prove he can overcome quality defensive players because he went 0 for 1 vs them.
Coastal Carolina was not his worse game of the season. That honor goes his game against Houston (Houston's DBs just sucked)

Coastal Carolina was a far better game than Fields against Indiana or Northwestern or Lance against Central Arkansas

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby Sriracha » Wed May 05, 2021 1:13 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:08 pm
Sriracha wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:02 pm
honcho55 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 11:45 pm Maybe not relevant to the larger discussion here, but I do feel Wilson is at least slightly underrated by most fantasy circles.

1) I have him a full tier higher than darnold as a prospect. Feel free to search my post history on darnold, I wasn’t a huge fan. I did hedge saying something like “I suck at QB so he will Probly be a stud” but still, Wilson > Darnold by a solid bit for me.

2) situation. Jets are a clearly improving, possibly emerging team imo. Honestly won’t be surprised if they stay bottom barrel or move up to playoff caliber. I understand that take isn’t a strong stance haha, but I take it nonetheless. It’s a large improvement over Darnold Jets, which was 🤮

3) It’s been telegraphed a bit that Wilson was a target for trade ups, and/or a reason teams didn’t trade up (he wouldn’t be there). I feel like there’s at least possibly merit to this.

Anyways, just grabbed him at 1.09 in sig league and feel like it’s a rock solid bet. Worst case a 2nd ground value on a handful of years, best case? I have a Herbert vibe (who I also took in that league, just prematurely flipped for ‘profit’)
Wilson has always been getting a ton of hype. Anywhere from 2-4 was very common. Amazing arm talent; but for fantasy purposes I just prefer Lance's rushing ceiling more.

Before anyone hits me with "Wilson is so much safer" I'd like to point out that his breakout campaign came against a last minute hodgepodge of a schedule that was filled with cupcakes. He played one top 60 defense all year, and that was by far his worst game of the season (Coastal Carolina).. this wouldn't be that big of a deal because he just looked so damn good in 2020 if not for his splits vs power 5 bowl teams and everyone else; his entire career. Where his YPA drops from ~10 to 7 and his TD/INT ratio skyrockets.

Another player with similar Jekyll and Hyde stats throughout their college career? Drew Lock and he was correctly characterized as a high upside low floor player because he just played better teams in the SEC and his warts were on full display.

Maybe Wilson had a Joe Burrow-esque off-season of development last year; but he did not prove he can overcome quality defensive players because he went 0 for 1 vs them.
Coastal Carolina was not his worse game of the season. That honor goes his game against Houston (Houston's DBs just sucked)

Coastal Carolina was a far better game than Fields against Indiana or Northwestern or Lance against Central Arkansas
I'm not criticizing him for having one bad game. That would be asinine.

More so because that one bad game just happened to coincide with his splits vs better teams his entire career; which is especially troubling considering how much better his 2020 season was than his first 2 seasons.

I'm not saying he's a bust, but for the people that are hailing him as the best QB in this class (or a tier above Lance) I'd caution that 2020 might've created the perfect storm for a player with his variance to look like a world beater.

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby StripesOfKC » Wed May 05, 2021 1:16 pm

Sriracha wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:13 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:08 pm
Sriracha wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:02 pm

Wilson has always been getting a ton of hype. Anywhere from 2-4 was very common. Amazing arm talent; but for fantasy purposes I just prefer Lance's rushing ceiling more.

Before anyone hits me with "Wilson is so much safer" I'd like to point out that his breakout campaign came against a last minute hodgepodge of a schedule that was filled with cupcakes. He played one top 60 defense all year, and that was by far his worst game of the season (Coastal Carolina).. this wouldn't be that big of a deal because he just looked so damn good in 2020 if not for his splits vs power 5 bowl teams and everyone else; his entire career. Where his YPA drops from ~10 to 7 and his TD/INT ratio skyrockets.

Another player with similar Jekyll and Hyde stats throughout their college career? Drew Lock and he was correctly characterized as a high upside low floor player because he just played better teams in the SEC and his warts were on full display.

Maybe Wilson had a Joe Burrow-esque off-season of development last year; but he did not prove he can overcome quality defensive players because he went 0 for 1 vs them.
Coastal Carolina was not his worse game of the season. That honor goes his game against Houston (Houston's DBs just sucked)

Coastal Carolina was a far better game than Fields against Indiana or Northwestern or Lance against Central Arkansas
I'm not criticizing him for having one bad game. That would be asinine.

More so because that one bad game just happened to coincide with his splits vs better teams his entire career; which is especially troubling considering how much better his 2020 season was than his first 2 seasons.

I'm not saying he's a bust, but for the people that are hailing him as the best QB in this class (or a tier above Lance) I'd caution that 2020 could've been the perfect storm for a player with his variance to look like a world beater.
I'm saying to actually watch the Coastal Carolina game instead of parrot what you hear. PFF graded the Houston game worse and I tend to agree. Coastal Carolina was scheduled within two days and featured drop after drop from receivers, consistent pressure and still had him driving down the field in 55 seconds to come within a yard of winning the game.

His INT from that game was literally a hail mary thrown to end the half

It was literally not a bad game

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby Sriracha » Wed May 05, 2021 1:19 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:16 pm I'm saying to actually watch the Coastal Carolina game instead of parrot what you hear. PFF graded the Houston game worse and I tend to agree. Coastal Carolina was scheduled within two days and featured drop after drop from receivers, consistent pressure and still had him driving down the field in 55 seconds to come within a yard of winning the game.

His INT from that game was literally a hail mary thrown to end the half

It was literally not a bad game
I'm not a film scout so I'm just trusting what I've heard from people far more knowledgeable in that area than me.

Do you think it's just a coincidence that that was BYU's lowest scoring output on the season and their only loss then?

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby StripesOfKC » Wed May 05, 2021 1:26 pm

Sriracha wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:19 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:16 pm I'm saying to actually watch the Coastal Carolina game instead of parrot what you hear. PFF graded the Houston game worse and I tend to agree. Coastal Carolina was scheduled within two days and featured drop after drop from receivers, consistent pressure and still had him driving down the field in 55 seconds to come within a yard of winning the game.

His INT from that game was literally a hail mary thrown to end the half

It was literally not a bad game
I'm not a film scout so I'm just trusting what I've heard from people far more knowledgeable in that area than me.

Do you think it's just a coincidence that that was BYU's lowest scoring output on the season and their only loss then?
No there are other factors at play

It was the only game I saw BYU's offensive line lose in the trenches, their receivers with the dropsies and some ticky tack holding penalties that cancelled out two BYU TDs

You don't have to be a film scout (because I am not) to see if this was an atrocious game or not:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fo9N7a7QqKk

Not saying it's a particularly good one but he wasn't close to the reason BYU lost

And as for Lance comparison I'd rather get Wilson at 1.7/1.8 behind the other three QBs, two to three RBs and Chase and sometimes Smith/Waddle than Lance at his 1.2 price tag

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Re: 2021 draft: Why was the Fantasy Community and NFL so divided?

Postby AussieMate » Wed May 05, 2021 5:30 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:26 pm
Sriracha wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:19 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 1:16 pm I'm saying to actually watch the Coastal Carolina game instead of parrot what you hear. PFF graded the Houston game worse and I tend to agree. Coastal Carolina was scheduled within two days and featured drop after drop from receivers, consistent pressure and still had him driving down the field in 55 seconds to come within a yard of winning the game.

His INT from that game was literally a hail mary thrown to end the half

It was literally not a bad game
I'm not a film scout so I'm just trusting what I've heard from people far more knowledgeable in that area than me.

Do you think it's just a coincidence that that was BYU's lowest scoring output on the season and their only loss then?
No there are other factors at play

It was the only game I saw BYU's offensive line lose in the trenches, their receivers with the dropsies and some ticky tack holding penalties that cancelled out two BYU TDs

You don't have to be a film scout (because I am not) to see if this was an atrocious game or not:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fo9N7a7QqKk

Not saying it's a particularly good one but he wasn't close to the reason BYU lost

And as for Lance comparison I'd rather get Wilson at 1.7/1.8 behind the other three QBs, two to three RBs and Chase and sometimes Smith/Waddle than Lance at his 1.2 price tag
You said it far better than I could have, I also didn't think that game was the giant red flag its been made out and listening to some podcasts I very much wonder if some of these analysts actually watched the game or are just continuing on with what others have said (not a knock on these analysts as surely its impossible to watch every game of every prospect). 100% wasn't a good game in any sense but people have been calling Wilson a bust going off this one game, not saying anyone in this forum is doing that but I've read it in multiple other places.


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