Harris vs. '20 RBs

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Anteaters
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Re: Harris vs. '20 RBs

Postby Anteaters » Sat May 08, 2021 4:08 am

Harris is almost guaranteed 300+ touches i 2021. We can't say that about any other RB on this list.

Opportunity is the biggest determinant of fantasy value here. Dobbins was mostly horrible in the first half of 2020. He had 2 TDs in an otherwise horrible 1st game of the season, a hundred-yard game in week 7, and 6 really bad games out of his first 8. He had 66 touches.

In the second half of the season, Dobbins had 99 touches, 550 yards and 7TDs. The increased touches/opportunity allowed him to be more productive. Dobbin's total numbers for 2020 were 165 touches, 925 yards, 9TDs.

All projections indicate Najee in 2021 will have approximately twice the touches that Dobbins had in 2020. My guess is even if we don't double Dobbins' 2020 production and go with a conservative 1.7 multiple. That's a season where Najee tops 1500 yards and 15TDs.

Which of the 2020 RBs do we think is going to achieve those numbers? I predict none because I don't think any have the potential be a full-time 3-down RB in their current situations. They all have significant competition either for rushing or receiving out of the backfield. Swift has less competition, but he's also in a worse overall situation. In Indy, Mack is healthy and Hines isn't going anywhere. Dobbins is not a 3-down RB. Akers is going to get help in the backfield rushing and receiving. Gibson and Swift might be 3-down RBs, but no one is really predicting them to be better options than JT and Dobbins. And honestly, I don't have any idea of what CEH's season will look like.

This is not to say Najee is a better pure RB than any of those guys. But his skill coupled with the opportunity for touches he will be given, make him my favorite for having the most fantasy productive season of all of them.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser


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