POST 2021 NFL draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Avery
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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby Avery » Sun May 02, 2021 9:26 am

Patsfan86 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 9:19 am UGGGHHHHH Why are we doing this again? Do we never learn?

2019: "Titans suck for AJB, wow my god, awful, im not touching him" fast forward again "OOOPPPSSS should have taken him"
2019: "Metcalf to seattle is awful, he will never get the volume to hit 1300 yards, oh no" fast forward a few month "Damn that was a mistake"
2019: "Hardman to the chiefs, amazing, take him now"

2020 "OMG OMG CEH TO CHIEFS!!!! AMAZING!!!! OVERALL RB1!!!!!" months Later "SHould have take taylor"
2020 "Swift Lions, uggghhhhhh, man thats bad" months later "He may be better than CEH"

I can keep doing this and we all know it. Landing spot is so overrated. Please everyone keep letting Bateman fall to me so you can take a 9ers rb who will have 150 yards one game and 12 yards the next. Please let Etienne fall because you think a UDFA will still compete with him. I beg you.

Anyway, my rankings 1 qb
Etienne
Harris
Pitts
chase
Williams
Bateman
Waddle
Trevor
Smith
Marshall
Sermon
Toney
Elijah Moore
R Moore
Michael Carter
I entirely agree with your process (thinking on landing spot) but entirely disagree with your results (rankings). :lol:
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby stoneghost28 » Sun May 02, 2021 9:54 am

Patsfan86 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 9:19 am UGGGHHHHH Why are we doing this again? Do we never learn?

2019: "Titans suck for AJB, wow my god, awful, im not touching him" fast forward again "OOOPPPSSS should have taken him"
2019: "Metcalf to seattle is awful, he will never get the volume to hit 1300 yards, oh no" fast forward a few month "Damn that was a mistake"
2019: "Hardman to the chiefs, amazing, take him now"

2020 "OMG OMG CEH TO CHIEFS!!!! AMAZING!!!! OVERALL RB1!!!!!" months Later "SHould have take taylor"
2020 "Swift Lions, uggghhhhhh, man thats bad" months later "He may be better than CEH"

I can keep doing this and we all know it. Landing spot is so overrated. Please everyone keep letting Bateman fall to me so you can take a 9ers rb who will have 150 yards one game and 12 yards the next. Please let Etienne fall because you think a UDFA will still compete with him. I beg you.

Anyway, my rankings 1 qb
Etienne
Harris
Pitts
chase
Williams
Bateman
Waddle
Trevor
Smith
Marshall
Sermon
Toney
Elijah Moore
R Moore
Michael Carter
:shh:


I generally agree, but there are situations that inherently sucks. Bateman/Dev Smith to those QB's is nearly impossible to see as a good thing in terms of volume. As someone who feasted on the AJ Brown drop in '19, I will go after Bateman anyway, quite happily if he drops like I think he will, probably the same with with Williams if he drops at all, like I did with Miles Sanders.

for now w/probably a lot of screw ups, I've got a four year old running around. I've got around 15 targets for 1QB and 16 for 2QB in general, w/about 12 guys I like non-QB. Definitely a draft where I'll be trying to move 2nds, and '22 picks to move up into the top 10 of 1QB and the top 3 of the second round or so of 2QB. There's a giant ledge after that. Last year I used the same strategy to jump up so I could be sure of gaining 1 of Lamb/Jeudy at 11 in 2QB when they fell. Will try to do the same this year to avoid the cliff in both 1QB and 2 QB.



Tier 1:
Etienne
Chase
Harris

Tier 2:
J. Williams
Pitts
Bateman
Smith
Waddle
R. Moore
T. Marshall

Tier 3:
Sermon
E. Moore
T. Lawrence
J. Fields
T. Lance

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby SoftwoodGrampian » Sun May 02, 2021 10:00 am

Patsfan86 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 9:19 am UGGGHHHHH Why are we doing this again? Do we never learn?

2019: "Titans suck for AJB, wow my god, awful, im not touching him" fast forward again "OOOPPPSSS should have taken him"
2019: "Metcalf to seattle is awful, he will never get the volume to hit 1300 yards, oh no" fast forward a few month "Damn that was a mistake"
2019: "Hardman to the chiefs, amazing, take him now"

2020 "OMG OMG CEH TO CHIEFS!!!! AMAZING!!!! OVERALL RB1!!!!!" months Later "SHould have take taylor"
2020 "Swift Lions, uggghhhhhh, man thats bad" months later "He may be better than CEH"

I can keep doing this and we all know it. Landing spot is so overrated. Please everyone keep letting Bateman fall to me so you can take a 9ers rb who will have 150 yards one game and 12 yards the next. Please let Etienne fall because you think a UDFA will still compete with him. I beg you.

Anyway, my rankings 1 qb
Etienne
Harris
Pitts
chase
Williams
Bateman
Waddle
Trevor
Smith
Marshall
Sermon
Toney
Elijah Moore
R Moore
Michael Carter
Good

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby ravn88 » Sun May 02, 2021 10:10 am

Blackout wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 6:29 am
ravn88 wrote: Sat May 01, 2021 9:40 am Would you sell the 1.01, if you could get the 1.02 and 1.04 (maybe with a little add on to the 1.01)
I would do it and run ! Chase or Harris or Pitts it's fair enough. And after all, is Chase an absolute 1.01 ?
Its an SF.
Team 1 : 1QB 2RB 3 WR 1TE 1Flex 1K 1TM 2 IR 12 Keepers

QB: Carson Wentz, P. Mahomes
RB: A. Jones, MGIII, Dobbins, L. Bell, Ingram, J Williams & Gaskin
WR: D. Hopkins, J. Jones, K. Allen, J Crowder, Humpries & Agolor
TE: E. Engram, Trey Burton, V Davis & J. Doyle

Team 2: 1QB 1 SF 3RB 5WR 2TE 2FLEX DEF 26 Keepers 2019 Champ :thumbup: 2020 third place

QB: J. Allen Wentz Watson D. Lock.
RB: Barkley Zeke CEH J. Robinson D. Freeman Penny
WR: M. Thomas Cooper Godwin Juju J. Washington Renfrow, Jeudy, R. Moore TreQuan, P. Williams
TE: Waller Engram OJH & Everett
DEF: Pats & Browns

Team 3: 1QB 1SF 2RB 2WR 1TE 1FLEX DEF K

QB: Wilson Wentz Tannehill Brees Haskins Foles
RB: CMC Zeke Miles CEH AP J. Jackson B. Scott
WR: Evans Adams Landry Metcalf E. Sanders Lazard
TE: Engram Hurts Ebron Herndon

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby cmizelle » Sun May 02, 2021 12:27 pm

I've got the community ranking page set up for post draft as well:
http://mizelle.net/mfl/2021/rookies/

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby jcc6fd » Sun May 02, 2021 12:39 pm

sugbear65 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 8:51 am Nobody is ranking Carter huh? Hopefully that means I can get him reasonably priced in the leagues that haven’t drafted yet. But I think a lot of people are going to be kicking themselves for the oversight. He’s firmly in the 1st round for me.
Carter is at least intriguing to me. Who in the top 12 would you pick him above? I don't see him going above Sermon, Bateman, Elijah Moore. You'd have to like him more than at least one of the aforementioned or Terrace Marshall, Lawrence and Tooney to take him top 12.
10 Team Half PPR Scoring SF
QB: Mahomes, Hurts, Minshew
RB: Kamara, K. Hunt, Warren, Bigsby, D. Cook, Jamaal Williams, J. Wilson, McLaughlin, McKinnon, J. Kelley
WR: A.J. Brown, Diggs, K. Allen, C. Watson, Cooks, Pickens, W. Robinson
TE: Kelce, J. Smith, Musgrave

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun May 02, 2021 2:55 pm

jcc6fd wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 12:39 pm
sugbear65 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 8:51 am Nobody is ranking Carter huh? Hopefully that means I can get him reasonably priced in the leagues that haven’t drafted yet. But I think a lot of people are going to be kicking themselves for the oversight. He’s firmly in the 1st round for me.
Carter is at least intriguing to me. Who in the top 12 would you pick him above? I don't see him going above Sermon, Bateman, Elijah Moore. You'd have to like him more than at least one of the aforementioned or Terrace Marshall, Lawrence and Tooney to take him top 12.
Maybe in the minority but I'd take him over Sermon

Probably not any of the others though except Lawrence if I am set at QB

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby sugbear65 » Sun May 02, 2021 3:23 pm

jcc6fd wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 12:39 pm
sugbear65 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 8:51 am Nobody is ranking Carter huh? Hopefully that means I can get him reasonably priced in the leagues that haven’t drafted yet. But I think a lot of people are going to be kicking themselves for the oversight. He’s firmly in the 1st round for me.
Carter is at least intriguing to me. Who in the top 12 would you pick him above? I don't see him going above Sermon, Bateman, Elijah Moore. You'd have to like him more than at least one of the aforementioned or Terrace Marshall, Lawrence and Tooney to take him top 12.
Personally I’d take him over Sermon, Bateman, Marshall, Lawrence and Tooney. But I’m pretty high on him.
Think he belongs at least wherever Sermon is ranked though.

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby Avery » Sun May 02, 2021 3:48 pm

sugbear65 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 3:23 pm
jcc6fd wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 12:39 pm
sugbear65 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 8:51 am Nobody is ranking Carter huh? Hopefully that means I can get him reasonably priced in the leagues that haven’t drafted yet. But I think a lot of people are going to be kicking themselves for the oversight. He’s firmly in the 1st round for me.
Carter is at least intriguing to me. Who in the top 12 would you pick him above? I don't see him going above Sermon, Bateman, Elijah Moore. You'd have to like him more than at least one of the aforementioned or Terrace Marshall, Lawrence and Tooney to take him top 12.
Personally I’d take him over Sermon, Bateman, Marshall, Lawrence and Tooney. But I’m pretty high on him.
Think he belongs at least wherever Sermon is ranked though.
If you're an analytics guy, it's a bad bet on Carter above Sermon.

The hit rate (I believe defined by returning a top 24 finish) for a RB drops from something like 50% in round 3 to something like 20% to round 4 and a multiple hit rate season in round 4 is less than 10%.

Note: I'd be happy to credit who did the math on this, but I read it somewhere over on Reddit and I really don't remember the author.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby mgscott » Sun May 02, 2021 4:54 pm

Harris
Chase
Smith
Pitts

Williams
Etienne
Waddle

Toney
Sermon
Carter
Bateman
E Moore

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby sugbear65 » Sun May 02, 2021 5:02 pm

Avery wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 3:48 pm
sugbear65 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 3:23 pm
jcc6fd wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 12:39 pm

Carter is at least intriguing to me. Who in the top 12 would you pick him above? I don't see him going above Sermon, Bateman, Elijah Moore. You'd have to like him more than at least one of the aforementioned or Terrace Marshall, Lawrence and Tooney to take him top 12.
Personally I’d take him over Sermon, Bateman, Marshall, Lawrence and Tooney. But I’m pretty high on him.
Think he belongs at least wherever Sermon is ranked though.
If you're an analytics guy, it's a bad bet on Carter above Sermon.

The hit rate (I believe defined by returning a top 24 finish) for a RB drops from something like 50% in round 3 to something like 20% to round 4 and a multiple hit rate season in round 4 is less than 10%.

Note: I'd be happy to credit who did the math on this, but I read it somewhere over on Reddit and I really don't remember the author.
I’m not an analytics guy I guess then, because the fact that Sermon went 19 picks ahead of Carter doesn’t make me like him more.

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby Avery » Sun May 02, 2021 6:33 pm

sugbear65 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 5:02 pm
Avery wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 3:48 pm
sugbear65 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 3:23 pm

Personally I’d take him over Sermon, Bateman, Marshall, Lawrence and Tooney. But I’m pretty high on him.
Think he belongs at least wherever Sermon is ranked though.
If you're an analytics guy, it's a bad bet on Carter above Sermon.

The hit rate (I believe defined by returning a top 24 finish) for a RB drops from something like 50% in round 3 to something like 20% to round 4 and a multiple hit rate season in round 4 is less than 10%.

Note: I'd be happy to credit who did the math on this, but I read it somewhere over on Reddit and I really don't remember the author.
I’m not an analytics guy I guess then, because the fact that Sermon went 19 picks ahead of Carter doesn’t make me like him more.
Fair enough. Just pointing out some stats that may further the conversation.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: POST draft rookie rankings? Who ya got.

Postby MucBuc » Mon May 03, 2021 12:07 am

sugbear65 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 5:02 pm I’m not an analytics guy I guess then, because the fact that Sermon went 19 picks ahead of Carter doesn’t make me like him more.
Agreed, it's not a big difference in draft capital. Plus, the Jets didn't even have another pick between 2.02 and 4.02, so maybe they would have taken him in the 3rd too if given the chance.
3x teams in 32-team standard PPR + IDP leagues

It doesn't matter what we want. Once we get it, we want something else.

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Landing spot clarification

Postby Zhoward88 » Mon May 03, 2021 6:33 am

Where are you placing the top 5 WRs and RBs now? Obviously league settings dependent but just based on opportunity and scheme fit, where do you draft these guys now?

To me, several dropped in appeal a lot. Bateman doesn’t even intrigue me in that offense. Honestly, ETN is more intriguing now. And J-Will went to the best landing spot I think he could have. So what’s your top 10-15 picks just on the landing spots?
10 team league....16 offensive keepers selected by April first. 28 man rosters during the season. 1 keeper defense and 1 keeper kicker.

.5 ppr, TE premium +.5, .2 return yards, big play bonuses, 4 team playoffs and 2 week super bowl (wk 15,16).
Start 1 QB 6 pt passing TD, 2 RBs, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 TE.

QBs- Dak P
RBs- miles sanders, CEH, Najee Harris, Antonio gibson, James robinson, Boston Scott, qadree ollison, eno Benjamin, Sony michel, kerryon Johnson, gerrid Doaks, Larry rountree,
WRs- Brandon aiyuk, shenault, Adam thielen, Antonio brown, kadarius Toney, Jacobi Meyers, Dwayne eskridge, jalen Darden.

TEs- Goedert, fant, Hayden hurst, Dan Arnold, Donald parham
Kicker- koo

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Re: Landing spot clarification

Postby Zhoward88 » Mon May 03, 2021 6:38 am

Chase
Harris/ETN
Waddle
Williams
Pitts
Smith
Carter
Sermon
Rondale

Then Elijah Moore is very close to me too. I like him in that offense.
10 team league....16 offensive keepers selected by April first. 28 man rosters during the season. 1 keeper defense and 1 keeper kicker.

.5 ppr, TE premium +.5, .2 return yards, big play bonuses, 4 team playoffs and 2 week super bowl (wk 15,16).
Start 1 QB 6 pt passing TD, 2 RBs, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 TE.

QBs- Dak P
RBs- miles sanders, CEH, Najee Harris, Antonio gibson, James robinson, Boston Scott, qadree ollison, eno Benjamin, Sony michel, kerryon Johnson, gerrid Doaks, Larry rountree,
WRs- Brandon aiyuk, shenault, Adam thielen, Antonio brown, kadarius Toney, Jacobi Meyers, Dwayne eskridge, jalen Darden.

TEs- Goedert, fant, Hayden hurst, Dan Arnold, Donald parham
Kicker- koo


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