2020: Henry Ruggs: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=198658
2019: Marquise Brown: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180837
2017: Isaiah Ford: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=138337
2016: Michael Thomas: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=115256
2015: Tyler Lockett: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=99887
This was a tough class to write on just one player. I cycled between Tylan Wallace, Rondale Moore, Terrace Marshall, and Elijah Moore. I had a writeup almost finished on Rondale, but lost my progress on it. So, I decided to start fresh and go with Elijah Moore, who while isn't the circus freak Rondale is, he offers more certainty as a pass catcher, route runner, and role at the next level.
Background Check:
- Freshman season with AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and Dawson Knox in front of him as target priorities.
- Cemented himself as the top WR as a sophomore and junior.
- 19.3 BOA, 91st Percentile CD
- Averaged 149 receiving yards/gm last season. For comparison, DeVonta Smith averaged 142.
- Just turned 21 in March
- Ran a 4.35u at his Pro Day
- Ran a 6.66 3-Cone at his Pro Day. (For comparison: Brandin Cooks - 6.76, Antonio Brown - 6.98, Stefon Diggs - 7.03)
- 91% of his snaps from the slot in his college career, 78% this season.
- 1,738 yards from the slot since 2019
- Caught 97% of catchable targets beyond the line of scrimmage in 2020.
Moore is only going 2.01 in Mizelle ADP pre-draft, which is a great combination of fair value and upside. While any player's upside can blossom in the right situation, Moore's role, strengths, and certainty give him a wider range of landing spots that can maximize his ability.
Moore is One of the Best Route Runners and Separators in this Class
Matt Harmon's Reception Perception remains one of my favorite resources for evaluating route success for WRs. This year, he was able to bring it back for the college season. No surprise, but Moore graded as one of his top prospects in terms of separation ability. Moore posted a 95th percentile success rate vs. man coverage (79.8%).
Success by Route:
It's easy to see why Moore excels as a separator. He has the natural athletic tools to his game, exemplified by his 40 time and 3-Cone, and he's turned that into elite slot production.
Reaches top acceleration quickly out of his route, turns a DB around in coverage, makes the catch, and takes a hit.
Just an unfair stutter on the stop and go route.
Moore has proven he can play all over the field and win in different levels. His bread and butter will be the short-to-intermediate game, but he can win downfield, despite not running a high percentage of his routes there.
Average Depth of Target (Credit PFF):
Ja'Marr Chase ('19) - 14.3 yards
Kyle Pitts - 13.8
Jaylen Waddle - 11.7
Elijah Moore - 10.9
DeVonta Smith - 10.7
Rashod Bateman - 10.4
Terrace Marshall Jr. - 9.5
Kadarius Toney - 7.7
Rondale Moore - 2.6
The biggest questions about his usage will center around what he can do on the outside. Did Ole Miss pigeonhole him into a role, or is he capable of doing more than what they gave him? Either way, his aDOT is really encouraging given the limited amount of outside snaps. He's right in line with Waddle, Smith and Bateman.
Moore Has Arguably the Best Hands in the Draft
I mentioned Rondale Moore earlier, and despite having immense talent, the tough part of evaluating him is projection. Not because he's a gadget player, but because a team had to manufacture so many touches to get him the ball, because they lacked QB talent and other WRs (until David Bell came as a sophomore).
Elijah's role is much safer to project. He's comfortably a really good, surehanded slot WR, who can also play outside. Pro Football Focus charted Moore with the lowest drop rate among SEC WRs last season, with just two drops on the season. Moore's strengths are set up to be extremely seamless for a QB who needs a safety blanket.
Here, Moore catches away from his body, takes a hit, and keeps two feet down in bound. These are the types of plays that quickly earn the trust of QBs.
Not only is Moore surehanded, but he's fantastic at attacking the ball and catching the ball away from his body in stride without losing speed or without slowing down in shiftiness. That's not an easy thing to do for a smaller and lighter WR, many of whom don't attack the ball, and if they do they have to sacrifice some speed on the move to do it.
https://twitter.com/LedyardNFLDraft/sta ... 6508221442
Plays like these consistently show up in his games:Elijah Moore wins the award for quickest transition from catcher to runner among this year's WR group. Dude has eyes in the back of his head, maneuvering away from tacklers before he's even secured the catch. He's so good.
The ease of how Moore plucks and runs into YAC consistently pops. He had 505 YAC last season, which was 4th in college football.
Makes Tough Catches in Traffic
My personal feeling is that contested catches are sometimes an overvalued skill in the fantasy community. They make for great highlights on tape, but it's not a high volume play.
Regardless, PFF charted Moore catching 73% of his contested catch opportunities last season, which is a ridiculous number. For comparison, the only players with better contested catch success last season were: Kyle Pitts, Tylan Wallace (also a good value) and Dyami Brown.
The biggest difference? Those players are 6'0+ and Moore is 5'10.
You've seen it in the cuts above, but Moore is a tough player who has no issue going up in traffic, making a play or creating tight throwing windows for his QB in traffic.
Again, making a tough catch in between defenders, holding onto the ball while taking the hit. These aren't always flashy plays, but Moore consistently does these things.
This is one of my favorite plays from him. Moore gets good separation from the defender, but the QB's pass doesn't hit him in stride. Instead, Moore stretches out for the pass while still taking the hit for a completion.
NFL Stock
Daniel Jeremiah
Mel Kiper, Todd McShay“Elijah Moore is somebody I just think is a complete receiver," Jeremiah said on Path to the Draft on Monday. "At the end of the day, the only thing he doesn’t have is size, everything else you love. So that’s why I ended up moving him up the board, I think he’s going to be an outstanding slot receiver at the next level.”
Bucky Brooks“A guy who is tremendously undervalued … I would think he’s going to play like a first-rounder once he’s in the NFL,” Kiper said.
McShay followed that up by noting that he will likely have Moore as a first-round selection. He isn’t sure exactly where Moore will wind up in his next projection, but he is sure the Ole Miss wideout wil garner plenty of attention in the draft’s opening round.
“I agree,” McShay said. “I think he really came on this year. In my mock draft, he’s going to be somewhere between 20 and 32. I haven’t put them all together yet. But he’s in there.”
Outlook:“We have talked about him, we have celebrated him as a route-runner, as a play-maker from the slot, he just gets it, meaning he understands how to play the position, he consistently gets open,” Brooks said. “He is a handful for cornerbacks to deal with in the slot, he is someone that you can plug-and-play. You drop him into the offense I would expect him to have 60-70 receptions, 1,000 yards, and make a ton of plays moving the chains as a first-down maker.”
Moore looks like he's going anywhere from the late 1st to 2nd round of the real draft, with an outside chance of a 3rd round selection.
This is a very deep and talented WR class and value will come from a variety of spots. Moore reminds me of a mix of Curtis Samuel and Tyler Lockett. That may not be an appealing hybrid for all, but the route running prowess of both, and Moore's own makes him a really solid target in what is currently the late 1st or 2nd round of rookie drafts. The biggest questions Moore will encounter at the next level will be if he can play a higher volume of snaps on the outside and really unleash his potential downfield.
Route Usage:
Moore was entrenched as a slot receiver in college and produced there better than anyone could. Moore's route running, toughness, and hands present serious optimism that he can play on the outside, but again...it's still an unknown.
He'll also see more press coverage, but again his play strength and footwork will lead you to believe that he can adjust quickly to that.
Moore offers a solid WR2 projection. If he gets comfortable on the outside while also landing in a great situation (think Green Bay) then more is possible. When you look at comparable players like Jaylen Waddle (1.08) and Rondale Moore (1.09), it's hard not to be encouraged by the value you get in Moore in the 2nd round, with more certainty in various areas of his game. That leads me to believe that even though he lacks the ideal size you want, his route running and hands can simply accumulate volume organically.
Gif Credit: Ben Fennell, Rotoballer, PreGame HQ, Draft Sharks, PFF, FF Astronauts.
thank you
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