Top 5 rookies - pre-draft 2021 edition

[StripesOfKC]

maybe we have different images of solid to elite

Yeah, some of us may have a bit of a different level of where we set the bar.

In Lawrence’s career against top 10 teams - that’s 7 games, 6 of them bowl games - where he and his team figure to be most evenly matched or even at a deficit, here’s what he has done:

170 of 266 passing 2181 yds 15 TDs 2 INTs
63.2% completions 312 ypg 8.20 ypa 7.5 TD/INT ratio

71 rushes 305 yds 5 TDs
10 att/gm 43.6 yds/gm

And let’s not forget that this is his career against top 10 teams and includes his numbers as a freshman against that level of competition. If being capable of producing those kinds of numbers against the best teams in college football don’t meet your theshold of elite, then it might be time to revisit your definition IMO.

You can’t fault him for working within the boundaries of the offense that coaches designed at Clemson. But when he did throw to deeper routes he was the second best QB in the country in on-target percentage. He hit at a 75% completion rate on targets 16-20 yds downfield in the middle of the field. That’s golden at the NFL level. His red zone efficiency as a passer is jaw dropping. If there is a potential wart, it’s that his 3rd/4th down conversion rate is about average, but is offset curiously by his 3rd/4th down accuracy rate which is superb. So there are questions there whether he knew where the down markers were - which is odd given the summation of the rest of his game - or whether his receivers knew where the down markers were when they ran their routes.

Hey, detract all you want. But if he doesn’t meet your level of elite then please define what it takes for a QB to meet your standard. I’d like to see what your definition is so that we can take a look at what you do expect.

I said Daniel Jones and Wentz don't belong in "solid to elite" lol

Nothing about Lawrence

[wickerkat1212]

For Wentz it was the fact that he was the #8 QB a few years ago. What he is NOW? IDK. Not much. Jones was definitely worse than I thought, was looking at BIG QBs and he fit the bill. But he was #22 last year I think.

[Ice]

My final QB top 5. This isn't the easiest class to evaluate after #1. 2-4 are close to a coin flip IMO and I have moved them around some the more I studied them.

1) Lawrence
The stage isn't too big for him and hasn't been since High School. He has the tools to be Great early.

2) Jones.
Has the same accuracy and athleticism as Burrow. His ability to play in the pocket and deliver the ball on time with historical accuracy is amazing. He may not be the WOW big play guy but he will eliminate mistakes. The media is selling the ridiculous argument he won't be good because he played with great players. Probably the smartest QB ever in Alabama. Very high floor IMO. Pro start ready week 1.

3) Wilson
This kid may have a high bust factor but he also shows glimpses of Mahomes by making off platform throws look so easy people think he is faking it. He plays the game with the flair of an artist. If the Jet's can become stable he could be a star; If not....well they are the Jets.

4) Lance
Love his upside and seems to have the work ethic to be great. Makes solid decisions and looks to have that leadership qualities teams covet. May need a year to refine his mechanics and learn to deal with athletes as good as him on the field. May have the highest upside in this class outside of Lawrence.

5) Fields
I do like his game so being 5th on this list isn't a huge knock but I do have a few concerns with him. He is a classic what I would call an Over-Strider. This is not easily fixable under pressure. He has really solid baseball throwing mechanics but it looks a little like a center fielder throwing home. While not bad on deep throws that motion isn't great on short throws. He really holds the ball and will need to react to the blitz better and check down way better going forward.

He is a great athlete so he could develop into a star. Running ability is a serious plus but he needs time to develop. Teams will blitz him a ton in the NFL until he can prove he can handle it efficiently.

Overall, this looks to be a great class.

[wickerkat1212]

NFL Grades on the QBs FYI:

Lawrence 7.40 (highest of ANY OFF player)

Wilson 6.50
Lance 6.47
Fields 6.45

Jones 6.33

7.3-7.5 Perennial All-Pro
6.5-6.6 Boom or bust
6.3-6.4 Starter eventually

[yinzername]

TLaw
whichever of the below that lands as 49ers QB would be #2 for me but outside of that:
Fields
Wilson
Lance
Jones

I'm starting to think an ATL QB pick could be enough draftcap to make him my #3

[DJB]

Lawrence
Lance
Fields
Wilson
M Jones

Been the same for the last 3 months. Nothing has changed

[Hottoddies]

Patterson

Reminds me of a poor man's Branden Oliver. But I did think Oliver had a chance to make it in the NFL.

[RCogburn]

Is it bad that I really like that Feleipe Franks kid? A transfer from Florida who broke his ankle the year before. He had to rehab a devastating injury and take over an Arkansas team that only had one conference win in the last three years combined, and he won three conference games and nearly three more, including a two point loss to Auburn and Missouri both at the final seconds of the game. He did it despite having virtually NO talent around him.

I don't love his short or medium passing game just yet, but he throws it deep very well, stands in the pocket under pressure, advances through his reads, and keeps his mistakes to a minimum. Plus he's 6'7" and runs pretty well for a big guy. It's someone I'll definitely be looking at in the depths of my SF leagues.

I'm also not yet confident in my QB evaluations. Take what I say with the largest grain of salt you can find.

As a Gator fan, I got to watch Franks a lot. I wasn't too impressed. He held the ball too long. I was hoping that Mullen would switch to Trask or Emory Jones even before Franks got hurt. When Trask took over it was like night and day in Gainesville. Offense looked like it did under Spurrier. I'm not saying Trask will be a great pro. Time will tell. But, if you don't like Trask, Franks isn't even close to him.

Good feedback. I never got into his Gator days, just his time at Arkansas. For Example Joe Burrow was a nobody at Ohio State before switching over and becoming a completely different QB at LSU. I was hoping the same for Franks.

Now that you mention it, he did hold the ball for a long time in the tape I watched. Obviously that's a big negative for the NFL. I was thinking that it was because of a lack of pass catchers, but maybe there's a different reason.

Good feedback, thank you.

You're welcome.