Waddle: Do you believe?

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austing
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Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby austing » Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:36 pm

I've seen him all over the map from the wr2 all the way down to 5c and beyond in 1qb ppr rankings. From Tyreek hill to John Ross or Tavon. What are the biggest draft spots/factors that will solidify him into one of these groups and why? Any dream landing spots I should be aware of?

Also, what separates him from the other non-chase receivers in this class and why?

I personally see him as a shorter obj/cooks combo but am scared by all the bad comps, currently waffling between him and Pitts at 1.04..
12 team/37 year contract cap ppr league/ Player (yrs left on team) --- Qb Rb Flex Flex Flex Flex (max 3 rbs, no req. TEs)

QB Josh Allen (1)

RB Nick Chubb (1) Miles Sanders (4) Chase Edmunds (1)

WR Kenny Golladay (2) Jerry Jeudy (4) Courtland Sutton (3) Allen Robinson (3) Marvin Jones (2) Nelson Agholor (1) Nkeal Harry (3)

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2021 1.04 Pick (waddle/pitts/williams)

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:09 pm

You missed a golden opportunity to name the thread "Jaylen Waddle is much more than speed?"

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:30 pm

I think Waddle is a perfect case of how important context is to analytical thinking. As a true freshman on a team with 3 upperclassmen who would all be picked in the top half of the first round of the NFL draft, Waddle put up 848 yards. I think he’s good, and I’m interested to see where he lands.
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:09 pmYou missed a golden opportunity to name the thread "Jaylen Waddle is much more than speed?"
lol
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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby ThunderTung » Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:46 pm

Not really a big Waddle fan. If I was later in the first round and he fell to me I wouldn't have a problem taking him, but with players like Pitts, Smith, or Bateman in the 1.04-1.07 range, Waddle would be the 1.07 for me.

Feels like he's the type of guy who will flash here and there but will never really put it together for long stretches to become a difference maker in the long run.

Everyone wants to get a piece of the next Tyreek Hill, when in reality I just don't think that exists right now. And if he does, he's probably some guy you've never heard of who will go in the 4th round of your rookie drafts and burn you for the next 6 seasons lol
12 man IDP 0.5 ppr

QB(1): Geno Smith
RB(2): ETN/Walker III
WR(2): Chase/Lamb
TE(1): Goedert
FLEX(2): Stevenson/Garrett Wilson
K: Mcpherson
DL(2): T. Walker/Vea
LB(2): D. Long/TJ Edwards
DB(2) Dugger/Moehrig
FLEX: Kenneth Murray
IR: J. Hicks/Milano/Marcus Jones
Bench:
QB: Mac Jones/Bryce Young
RB: Zeke/D. Harris
WR: N. Brown/Demario Douglas/Bobby Trees/Parker/Tyler Scott
TE: Bellinger/Schultz
DL: Barrett/J. Davis/Yannick/
LB: Milano/Edwards/K. Murray/J. Smith
DB: Mathieu/Jonothan Owens

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby ArrylT » Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:05 pm

My first comment atm is that I was not a believer in Tyreek Hill, but I would like to think part of that was due to bias against off-field issues. I think Tyreek Hill helped open my eyes to being better aware that there are more ways to be a success at the NFL level than I had given credit for.

Do I believe Waddle can succeed in the NFL? Do I believe he can be fantasy relevant? Yes I believe he has enough talent to answer both questions. How much success - that will be determined. For example his upside could be capped in a place like Baltimore, while not being an indictment of his talent.

Lastly I also think sometimes comparing players to their class is a hindrance as much as a help. It is helpful if you're trying to determine where you want to slot Waddle in ones rankings for your draft board - but less so if you're trying to determine if Waddle is going to be useful to your fantasy team. Especially when it is not as if this is a class of Tyreek Hill clones and all he has to do is be the best version of that. Rather it is a class of widely different (in terms of skills and roles) yet talented WRs, all of whom could succeed given they continue to develop and have an opportunity.

I fully expect I'll end up with a couple of Waddle shares and will be glad to have them - but I'll be just as glad to own most of the other ones in 1st round discussion. But I love this 2021 class. :)
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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby mild » Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:51 pm

My first pick in this draft is 13th overall in a SF, which *could* net me a Waddle share if he sees a bad landing spot. At the risk of tipping my hand to my league mates if they're reading... Jaylen Waddle has one of the worst analytical profiles I've ever seen for a projected 1st round WR, and I don't think I'll be owning any shares unless he truly drops to me at value.

I could step through the case, but this thread "Why Jaylen Waddle is Fool's Gold" sums it up pretty nicely.
https://twitter.com/ProFootballPSI/stat ... 1312452611

The money shot:
Those are all metrics in isolation, so what happens when you add it all up? DR < 20% + No BOA + Never #1 + 22 years old

0% of all WR's since 2010 have gone on to hit in the NFL with that profile. Even if you ignore Entry Age to increase your N, it's just 2 out of 504 = 0.004%

If you're drafting Waddle know it's on the basis of hoping elite speed makes up for everything else and nothing more. If he hits - he joins the outlier group of McLaurin and Humphries. I'm out - but for those who aren't - Good luck.
This profile has a 0% hit rate in this era. Could it be the first? Absolutely. Is he a talent with an elite trait that could very well transfer to the Pros? Absolutely. Would I take him over the more analytically sound WR's that I like in this draft? Not a chance.

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby murphysxm » Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:52 pm

He is my 1.2. That clear enough?
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby ItsHandsomeDave » Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:13 am

murphysxm wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:52 pm He is my 1.2. That clear enough?
Crystal, Ill be avoiding him now

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby jenkins.math » Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:15 am

mild wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:51 pm My first pick in this draft is 13th overall in a SF, which *could* net me a Waddle share if he sees a bad landing spot. At the risk of tipping my hand to my league mates if they're reading... Jaylen Waddle has one of the worst analytical profiles I've ever seen for a projected 1st round WR, and I don't think I'll be owning any shares unless he truly drops to me at value.

I could step through the case, but this thread "Why Jaylen Waddle is Fool's Gold" sums it up pretty nicely.
https://twitter.com/ProFootballPSI/stat ... 1312452611

The money shot:
Those are all metrics in isolation, so what happens when you add it all up? DR < 20% + No BOA + Never #1 + 22 years old

0% of all WR's since 2010 have gone on to hit in the NFL with that profile. Even if you ignore Entry Age to increase your N, it's just 2 out of 504 = 0.004%

If you're drafting Waddle know it's on the basis of hoping elite speed makes up for everything else and nothing more. If he hits - he joins the outlier group of McLaurin and Humphries. I'm out - but for those who aren't - Good luck.
This profile has a 0% hit rate in this era. Could it be the first? Absolutely. Is he a talent with an elite trait that could very well transfer to the Pros? Absolutely. Would I take him over the more analytically sound WR's that I like in this draft? Not a chance.
Since 2007, of the 168 WR1 performances only 37 of them (22%) were by WRs less than 6 feet tall. Of those 37, 6 were Antonio Brown and 5 were Wes Welker. So taking those 2 greats (who also had HOF QBs to boot) out and you're talking 15.5% of the WR1 seasons were guys under 6 feet.

The small speedsters just don't equate to fantasy success often.

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby murphysxm » Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:49 pm

jenkins.math wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:15 am
The small speedsters just don't equate to fantasy success often.
For me it is what he does with the ball is in his hands and in space. He's deadly. Landing spot is going to be very important because I think he does need to land on a team with a creative offensive mind calling plays. I may walk it back if he lands in say Detroit, but I think he is flat out a playmaker and that is what the NFL covets.
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby PBFalcon » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:08 pm

jenkins.math wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:15 am
mild wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:51 pm My first pick in this draft is 13th overall in a SF, which *could* net me a Waddle share if he sees a bad landing spot. At the risk of tipping my hand to my league mates if they're reading... Jaylen Waddle has one of the worst analytical profiles I've ever seen for a projected 1st round WR, and I don't think I'll be owning any shares unless he truly drops to me at value.

I could step through the case, but this thread "Why Jaylen Waddle is Fool's Gold" sums it up pretty nicely.
https://twitter.com/ProFootballPSI/stat ... 1312452611

The money shot:
Those are all metrics in isolation, so what happens when you add it all up? DR < 20% + No BOA + Never #1 + 22 years old

0% of all WR's since 2010 have gone on to hit in the NFL with that profile. Even if you ignore Entry Age to increase your N, it's just 2 out of 504 = 0.004%

If you're drafting Waddle know it's on the basis of hoping elite speed makes up for everything else and nothing more. If he hits - he joins the outlier group of McLaurin and Humphries. I'm out - but for those who aren't - Good luck.
This profile has a 0% hit rate in this era. Could it be the first? Absolutely. Is he a talent with an elite trait that could very well transfer to the Pros? Absolutely. Would I take him over the more analytically sound WR's that I like in this draft? Not a chance.
Since 2007, of the 168 WR1 performances only 37 of them (22%) were by WRs less than 6 feet tall. Of those 37, 6 were Antonio Brown and 5 were Wes Welker. So taking those 2 greats (who also had HOF QBs to boot) out and you're talking 15.5% of the WR1 seasons were guys under 6 feet.

The small speedsters just don't equate to fantasy success often.
I am not a Waddle truther but I am very intrigued by him. With no combine and proday his injury is my first concern, since he relies so much in speed and quickness.
I looked up T Hills 2017 with Alex Smith/Reid a while back and I think he had around 1200 total yds and 10 TDs. Now, Waddle is not Hill but with the ball in his hands I think he is 85% of what Hill is.
Too succeed I think Waddle needs a creative HC/OC and good strong armed QB. If he gets a doofus HC/OC and and average QB, then I think he is a still a 1000yd 7TD guy, but if gets everything he needs then he could be a 1200yd 10TD guy like Hill was with Alex Smith/Reid.
I am a guys that likes the alpha WR type build, but those numbers that don't support shorter Wrs don't take into account how the NFL is changing and how's guys like Waddle effectively break the mold. He had 800yds as a freshman. Watch his tape and tell me that his after catch skills won't translate to the NFL in a big way, if things fall his way.
10 team dynasty began 2016
Standard scoring (no PPR, all TDs 6pts)
Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 Def

2018 2nd
2019 2nd
2020 CHAMP
2021 2nd
2022 *co-champ...yuck

QB: P Mahomes
RB: J Taylor, T Etienne, D Swift, B Robinson Jr, J Mixon, J Gibbs, Z Charbonnet, R Johnson, J Wilson
WR: J Jefferson, J Chase, J Waddle, DK Metcalf, J Addison, T Dell, J Downs, M Williams, K Toney, , C Claypool
TE: K Pitts, G Kittle
K: Stream
Def: SF

2024 picks: 1 (early/mid), 1 ,2 3 (early/mid), 3, 4, 5, 6

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby jenkins.math » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:21 pm

PBFalcon wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:08 pm
jenkins.math wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:15 am
mild wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:51 pm My first pick in this draft is 13th overall in a SF, which *could* net me a Waddle share if he sees a bad landing spot. At the risk of tipping my hand to my league mates if they're reading... Jaylen Waddle has one of the worst analytical profiles I've ever seen for a projected 1st round WR, and I don't think I'll be owning any shares unless he truly drops to me at value.

I could step through the case, but this thread "Why Jaylen Waddle is Fool's Gold" sums it up pretty nicely.
https://twitter.com/ProFootballPSI/stat ... 1312452611

The money shot:


This profile has a 0% hit rate in this era. Could it be the first? Absolutely. Is he a talent with an elite trait that could very well transfer to the Pros? Absolutely. Would I take him over the more analytically sound WR's that I like in this draft? Not a chance.
Since 2007, of the 168 WR1 performances only 37 of them (22%) were by WRs less than 6 feet tall. Of those 37, 6 were Antonio Brown and 5 were Wes Welker. So taking those 2 greats (who also had HOF QBs to boot) out and you're talking 15.5% of the WR1 seasons were guys under 6 feet.

The small speedsters just don't equate to fantasy success often.
I am not a Waddle truther but I am very intrigued by him. With no combine and proday his injury is my first concern, since he relies so much in speed and quickness.
I looked up T Hills 2017 with Alex Smith/Reid a while back and I think he had around 1200 total yds and 10 TDs. Now, Waddle is not Hill but with the ball in his hands I think he is 85% of what Hill is.
Too succeed I think Waddle needs a creative HC/OC and good strong armed QB. If he gets a doofus HC/OC and and average QB, then I think he is a still a 1000yd 7TD guy, but if gets everything he needs then he could be a 1200yd 10TD guy like Hill was with Alex Smith/Reid.
I am a guys that likes the alpha WR type build, but those numbers that don't support shorter Wrs don't take into account how the NFL is changing and how's guys like Waddle effectively break the mold. He had 800yds as a freshman. Watch his tape and tell me that his after catch skills won't translate to the NFL in a big way, if things fall his way.
That's what everyone says every single year.

I am not willing to pay the price it will cost me when he has a 22% chance of hitting. He may be Tyreek Hill, but if you are playing the odds, he is more likely another in a long list of speedsters that are better suited for best ball leagues.

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby mild » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:50 pm

PBFalcon wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:08 pm I am not a Waddle truther but I am very intrigued by him. With no combine and proday his injury is my first concern, since he relies so much in speed and quickness.
I looked up T Hills 2017 with Alex Smith/Reid a while back and I think he had around 1200 total yds and 10 TDs. Now, Waddle is not Hill but with the ball in his hands I think he is 85% of what Hill is.
Too succeed I think Waddle needs a creative HC/OC and good strong armed QB. If he gets a doofus HC/OC and and average QB, then I think he is a still a 1000yd 7TD guy, but if gets everything he needs then he could be a 1200yd 10TD guy like Hill was with Alex Smith/Reid.
I am a guys that likes the alpha WR type build, but those numbers that don't support shorter Wrs don't take into account how the NFL is changing and how's guys like Waddle effectively break the mold. He had 800yds as a freshman. Watch his tape and tell me that his after catch skills won't translate to the NFL in a big way, if things fall his way.
I've shown you that by a bunch of reasonably good analytical metrics for Rookie WR's he has a 0% hit profile, and you are comparing him to Tyreek Hill - perhaps the outlier of all outliers in WR's of the last decade. We shouldn't be chasing the outlier in Dynasty. That's how you end up hyping Henry Ruggs and creating a 90 page thread about how he's more than speed :lol:

You're also projecting him for 1020 yards and 8.5 TD's in his rookie year?

You're being quite bold, my friend, with not much working to show your math. Yes, I think we'd all like him to have a good landing spot. Perhaps he'll even get one and make us excited about drafting him. Hats off to you if he does indeed produce like this, but this is some "living on a prayer" stuff as far as analytical scouting is concerned.

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby PBFalcon » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:21 pm

mild wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:50 pm
PBFalcon wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:08 pm I am not a Waddle truther but I am very intrigued by him. With no combine and proday his injury is my first concern, since he relies so much in speed and quickness.
I looked up T Hills 2017 with Alex Smith/Reid a while back and I think he had around 1200 total yds and 10 TDs. Now, Waddle is not Hill but with the ball in his hands I think he is 85% of what Hill is.
Too succeed I think Waddle needs a creative HC/OC and good strong armed QB. If he gets a doofus HC/OC and and average QB, then I think he is a still a 1000yd 7TD guy, but if gets everything he needs then he could be a 1200yd 10TD guy like Hill was with Alex Smith/Reid.
I am a guys that likes the alpha WR type build, but those numbers that don't support shorter Wrs don't take into account how the NFL is changing and how's guys like Waddle effectively break the mold. He had 800yds as a freshman. Watch his tape and tell me that his after catch skills won't translate to the NFL in a big way, if things fall his way.
I've shown you that by a bunch of reasonably good analytical metrics for Rookie WR's he has a 0% hit profile, and you are comparing him to Tyreek Hill - perhaps the outlier of all outliers in WR's of the last decade. We shouldn't be chasing the outlier in Dynasty. That's how you end up hyping Henry Ruggs and creating a 90 page thread about how he's more than speed :lol:

You're also projecting him for 1020 yards and 8.5 TD's in his rookie year?

You're being quite bold, my friend, with not much working to show your math. Yes, I think we'd all like him to have a good landing spot. Perhaps he'll even get one and make us excited about drafting him. Hats off to you if he does indeed produce like this, but this is some "living on a prayer" stuff as far as analytical scouting is concerned.
Man you guys are brutal. Don't put words in my mouth I didn't say either. Lol. I didnt mean he would produce 85% of Hill. Just that his running after the catch is 85% if what Hill is...just a very rough estimation. And I definitely didn't say he would produce like that his rookie year...just meant that he could be a guy that produces an average stat line around that area. I also never recommended chasing Waddle in the draft, but there comes point that you take a chance at upside over more plausible mediocrity. If I am faced with that choice I am choosing potential upside. And don't forget all the qualifiers I mentioned for the guy. I really like the anyalytical side of this discussion but don't pretend your right before you know how the story ends. The was on pace to out produce D Smith before he got hurt. That means something.
10 team dynasty began 2016
Standard scoring (no PPR, all TDs 6pts)
Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 Def

2018 2nd
2019 2nd
2020 CHAMP
2021 2nd
2022 *co-champ...yuck

QB: P Mahomes
RB: J Taylor, T Etienne, D Swift, B Robinson Jr, J Mixon, J Gibbs, Z Charbonnet, R Johnson, J Wilson
WR: J Jefferson, J Chase, J Waddle, DK Metcalf, J Addison, T Dell, J Downs, M Williams, K Toney, , C Claypool
TE: K Pitts, G Kittle
K: Stream
Def: SF

2024 picks: 1 (early/mid), 1 ,2 3 (early/mid), 3, 4, 5, 6

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby DJB » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:26 pm

Waddle is my WR2 and I've compared him to Aiyuk. Not everyone can be the next Tyreek thats a tall order but Aiyuk is attainable.

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