Waddle: Do you believe?

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby dark_knite03 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:23 pm

Seems like the Hollywood Brown story all over again. I want no part of him outside of best ball.
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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby ThunderTung » Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:00 pm

DJB wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:26 pm Waddle is my WR2 and I've compared him to Aiyuk. Not everyone can be the next Tyreek thats a tall order but Aiyuk is attainable.

Both YAC monsters.
I mean outside of just being dynamic with the ball in their hands, they are almost nothing alike.

Like im not going to comp Chase to Julio just because they're both good at contested catches.

My point being is that I think Aiyuk has traits that made him successful last season outside of his yac ability and im not sure if Waddle has those traits.

Speedy WR's fail because they rely on their speed to win, it works in college and I think it makes a lot of the guys look better than they actually are, then when they get into the league they realize they can't just win on speed, but they don't have the other traits to make up for it. Thats what scares me about Waddle, I don't know if he can elevate his game to be more than a speedster.
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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby ArrylT » Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:23 pm

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpag ... ce&i=23804

Isaac Bruce played at a similar weight & well he did ok. Actually he came into the NFL at a lesser weight than Waddle (173 to 183).

There has been success by guys in this mold before - Bruce, Hill, Desean Jackson. McCardell came in at 175 (but he is 6'1).

Also here is a guy who talks about Jalen Waddles Route Running:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBMvV6F9c70

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgLTy3aFtfY

Anyways this doesnt mean Waddle is guaranteed to be successful - but that is the same with any rookie imho - but it does mean there are paths and ways for him to succeed. Obviously for many draft cost will be key. And therefore the NFL draft will help us determine that.
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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby Vcize » Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:34 pm

jenkins.math wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:21 pm
PBFalcon wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:08 pm I am a guys that likes the alpha WR type build, but those numbers that don't support shorter Wrs don't take into account how the NFL is changing and how's guys like Waddle effectively break the mold. He had 800yds as a freshman. Watch his tape and tell me that his after catch skills won't translate to the NFL in a big way, if things fall his way.
That's what everyone says every single year.

I am not willing to pay the price it will cost me when he has a 22% chance of hitting. He may be Tyreek Hill, but if you are playing the odds, he is more likely another in a long list of speedsters that are better suited for best ball leagues.
There is probably some merit to the 6 foot thing but I think this a lot of the 6 foot cutoff stuff is both somewhat arbitrary and cyclical.

In terms of how it is cyclical we are 3 years removed from a time when 50% of the top 6 dynasty WRs were sub 6 foot, and just 2 years removed from a time when 40% of the top 10 were sub 6 foot. We happened to have some really stud tall WRs come into the league these past two year that bumped the percentage of small guys down, but they've had plenty of time to shine.

In terms of how it is arbitrary, would Calvin Ridley or DJ Moore be significantly worse players if they were half an inch shorter? Probably not, but it would totally change that hit percentage if they happened to be a teeny tiny bit below 6ft instead of a teeny tiny bit above it.
mild wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:50 pm I've shown you that by a bunch of reasonably good analytical metrics for Rookie WR's he has a 0% hit profile, and you are comparing him to Tyreek Hill - perhaps the outlier of all outliers in WR's of the last decade. We shouldn't be chasing the outlier in Dynasty. That's how you end up hyping Henry Ruggs and creating a 90 page thread about how he's more than speed :lol:
Genuinely asking here, but were those metrics you combined really a specific combination of metrics that are regularly looked at together when viewing prospects, or were you specifically sorting through looking for a combination fit Waddle and would generate a low hit profile?

Because I'm pretty sure the hit profile of WRs that sat out the entire year of college before their draft year is very low, as is the hit profile of WRs that weighed less than 170lbs.

I am not a big Waddle guy but we can make analytics say what we want when we're combining a bunch of them together applied to fit an argument rather than the other way around.
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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby austing » Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:52 pm

Vcize wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:34 pm
jenkins.math wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:21 pm
PBFalcon wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:08 pm I am a guys that likes the alpha WR type build, but those numbers that don't support shorter Wrs don't take into account how the NFL is changing and how's guys like Waddle effectively break the mold. He had 800yds as a freshman. Watch his tape and tell me that his after catch skills won't translate to the NFL in a big way, if things fall his way.
That's what everyone says every single year.

I am not willing to pay the price it will cost me when he has a 22% chance of hitting. He may be Tyreek Hill, but if you are playing the odds, he is more likely another in a long list of speedsters that are better suited for best ball leagues.
There is probably some merit to the 6 foot thing but I think this a lot of the 6 foot cutoff stuff is both somewhat arbitrary and cyclical.

In terms of how it is cyclical we are 3 years removed from a time when 50% of the top 6 dynasty WRs were sub 6 foot, and just 2 years removed from a time when 40% of the top 10 were sub 6 foot. We happened to have some really stud tall WRs come into the league these past two year that bumped the percentage of small guys down, but they've had plenty of time to shine.

In terms of how it is arbitrary, would Calvin Ridley or DJ Moore be significantly worse players if they were half an inch shorter? Probably not, but it would totally change that hit percentage if they happened to be a teeny tiny bit below 6ft instead of a teeny tiny bit above it.
mild wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:50 pm I've shown you that by a bunch of reasonably good analytical metrics for Rookie WR's he has a 0% hit profile, and you are comparing him to Tyreek Hill - perhaps the outlier of all outliers in WR's of the last decade. We shouldn't be chasing the outlier in Dynasty. That's how you end up hyping Henry Ruggs and creating a 90 page thread about how he's more than speed :lol:
Genuinely asking here, but were those metrics you combined really a specific combination of metrics that are regularly looked at together when viewing prospects, or were you specifically sorting through looking for a combination fit Waddle and would generate a low hit profile?

Because I'm pretty sure the hit profile of WRs that sat out the entire year of college before their draft year is very low, as is the hit profile of WRs that weighed less than 170lbs.

I am not a big Waddle guy but we can make analytics say what we want when we're combining a bunch of them together applied to fit an argument rather than the other way around.
Mic drop. Completely articulated the feeling I've been having regarding the short=bad argument in a vacuum considering the profile flaws in every non-chase wr in this class. Steve Smith, cooks and hill would all not be drafted if size exceptions didn't happen. Not to mention he is 5'10 which isn't 5'8, I think he's just across the size threshold for being able to be dominant. I get exceptions are just that, but his tape looks more explosive in more areas of his game than just downfield speed. He looks like he has 'it'..

My questions are:

1) Is he 'just' strong enough to be able to play outside in 2 wr sets to use it in conjuncture with his speed?

2) Can he elevate enough to at least compete downfield without constant needle threading at the next level?

3) Is his route running refined enough to generate consistent separation when zone safeties and deep speed corners erode his athletic advantage?

4) Are his hands and run after catch elite enough to demand targets in an offense beyond shot plays?

Those differences would be enough to classify him as a Tyreek type and not a John Ross imo.
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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby ItsHandsomeDave » Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:08 am

Aiyuk is built like a brick shithouse bucko

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby ThunderTung » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:17 am

austing wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:52 pm
Vcize wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:34 pm
jenkins.math wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:21 pm

That's what everyone says every single year.

I am not willing to pay the price it will cost me when he has a 22% chance of hitting. He may be Tyreek Hill, but if you are playing the odds, he is more likely another in a long list of speedsters that are better suited for best ball leagues.
There is probably some merit to the 6 foot thing but I think this a lot of the 6 foot cutoff stuff is both somewhat arbitrary and cyclical.

In terms of how it is cyclical we are 3 years removed from a time when 50% of the top 6 dynasty WRs were sub 6 foot, and just 2 years removed from a time when 40% of the top 10 were sub 6 foot. We happened to have some really stud tall WRs come into the league these past two year that bumped the percentage of small guys down, but they've had plenty of time to shine.

In terms of how it is arbitrary, would Calvin Ridley or DJ Moore be significantly worse players if they were half an inch shorter? Probably not, but it would totally change that hit percentage if they happened to be a teeny tiny bit below 6ft instead of a teeny tiny bit above it.
mild wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:50 pm I've shown you that by a bunch of reasonably good analytical metrics for Rookie WR's he has a 0% hit profile, and you are comparing him to Tyreek Hill - perhaps the outlier of all outliers in WR's of the last decade. We shouldn't be chasing the outlier in Dynasty. That's how you end up hyping Henry Ruggs and creating a 90 page thread about how he's more than speed :lol:
Genuinely asking here, but were those metrics you combined really a specific combination of metrics that are regularly looked at together when viewing prospects, or were you specifically sorting through looking for a combination fit Waddle and would generate a low hit profile?

Because I'm pretty sure the hit profile of WRs that sat out the entire year of college before their draft year is very low, as is the hit profile of WRs that weighed less than 170lbs.

I am not a big Waddle guy but we can make analytics say what we want when we're combining a bunch of them together applied to fit an argument rather than the other way around.
Mic drop. Completely articulated the feeling I've been having regarding the short=bad argument in a vacuum considering the profile flaws in every non-chase wr in this class. Steve Smith, cooks and hill would all not be drafted if size exceptions didn't happen. Not to mention he is 5'10 which isn't 5'8, I think he's just across the size threshold for being able to be dominant. I get exceptions are just that, but his tape looks more explosive in more areas of his game than just downfield speed. He looks like he has 'it'..

My questions are:

1) Is he 'just' strong enough to be able to play outside in 2 wr sets to use it in conjuncture with his speed?

2) Can he elevate enough to at least compete downfield without constant needle threading at the next level?

3) Is his route running refined enough to generate consistent separation when zone safeties and deep speed corners erode his athletic advantage?

4) Are his hands and run after catch elite enough to demand targets in an offense beyond shot plays?

Those differences would be enough to classify him as a Tyreek type and not a John Ross imo.
I mean we heard the same thing about Ruggs last season. I agree the argument about height is a little silly, we should really be focusing on whether or not his speed will ultimately the detriment to his NFL career. Not that speed is a bad thing, just that how much does speed elevate his perceived skill set, and whether or not the conjuction of his speed + his height makes a difference
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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby ItsHandsomeDave » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:01 am

Always amazes me how every year people resort to all sorts of mental gymnastics with rookies and players they like. I get it, I get excited too but its silly to get too caught up in it.

This is a physical game where size, power and speed matters. Throw into the mix situation and opportunity, combined with college performance and you get a far better picture of what the odds of their success are.

All of that info will provide you with rough idea on the odds of a player doing well on your team. You will get some right, you will get some wrong, but if you remove the emotion out of it then you are going to end up making far better decisions at the end of the day. Just play the odds.

This is how you avoid drafting players like Harry, Treadwell, Ruggs or Marqusie Brown. Every year we see people talk about "route trees" as if its some sort of dark art, and every year the guys who cant separate or have dead hands struggle. Every year people get wet between the legs with 40 times ignoring the fact that they are drafting a manlet who requires specific plays to be created for him for him to be the weapon they drafted. The same goes for people who gush over "talent" when talent is often so hard to qualify. Sometimes you are just seeing what you want to see, and most of us are nothing more than amateur fans not paid scouts who actually understand this game on a highly technical level anyway. So who are you trying to kid?

I like Waddle, but at 180lbs and 5'10 Im shying away at his current price unless his situation and opportunity is a home run.

Arizona or Chargers? Im leaning towards buy with a higher pick.

Detroit, Eagles or NYG? You guys enjoy drafting the uber talent that he is thanks Ill try my luck with someone else unless by some miracle he falls into the second.

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:17 am

ItsHandsomeDave wrote: Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:01 am This is how you avoid drafting players like Harry, Treadwell, Ruggs or Marqusie Brown. Every year we see people talk about "route trees" as if its some sort of dark art, and every year the guys who cant separate or have dead hands struggle. Every year people get wet between the legs with 40 times ignoring the fact that they are drafting a manlet who requires specific plays to be created for him for him to be the weapon they drafted. The same goes for people who gush over "talent" when talent is often so hard to qualify. Sometimes you are just seeing what you want to see, and most of us are nothing more than amateur fans not paid scouts who actually understand this game on a highly technical level anyway. So who are you trying to kid?
The irony is that the players you mentioned were all mocked in the first round by paid scouts and draft experts...and were picked in the first round by paid general managers. So, it's not like you stuck your neck out there if you picked those players in rookie drafts. There was practical validation, especially considering draft pedigree is a significant factor in success in the NFL and in fantasy.

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:32 am

ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:23 pm https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpag ... ce&i=23804

Isaac Bruce played at a similar weight & well he did ok. Actually he came into the NFL at a lesser weight than Waddle (173 to 183).

There has been success by guys in this mold before - Bruce, Hill, Desean Jackson. McCardell came in at 175 (but he is 6'1).

Also here is a guy who talks about Jalen Waddles Route Running:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBMvV6F9c70

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgLTy3aFtfY

Anyways this doesnt mean Waddle is guaranteed to be successful - but that is the same with any rookie imho - but it does mean there are paths and ways for him to succeed. Obviously for many draft cost will be key. And therefore the NFL draft will help us determine that.
At some point people will get away from height and weight as large factors in success. The game has changed significantly, so historical data doesn't really show how much easier it is for lighter players to succeed in today's NFL.

Not to mention, weight is a snapshot in time and NFL receivers have talked about how they play lighter than their billed weight. Players show up for combines and pro days at a certain weight to look good, then drop afterwards for their playing weight. So, people really aren't playing at the size people think they are.

All things considered Waddle at ~5'10, 180 isn't really bad. It won't be the reason he can't reach his upside.

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:15 am

Is there anything he does much better than Ruggs?

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby ArrylT » Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:17 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:17 am
ItsHandsomeDave wrote: Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:01 am This is how you avoid drafting players like Harry, Treadwell, Ruggs or Marqusie Brown. Every year we see people talk about "route trees" as if its some sort of dark art, and every year the guys who cant separate or have dead hands struggle. Every year people get wet between the legs with 40 times ignoring the fact that they are drafting a manlet who requires specific plays to be created for him for him to be the weapon they drafted. The same goes for people who gush over "talent" when talent is often so hard to qualify. Sometimes you are just seeing what you want to see, and most of us are nothing more than amateur fans not paid scouts who actually understand this game on a highly technical level anyway. So who are you trying to kid?
The irony is that the players you mentioned were all mocked in the first round by paid scouts and draft experts...and were picked in the first round by paid general managers. So, it's not like you stuck your neck out there if you picked those players in rookie drafts. There was practical validation, especially considering draft pedigree is a significant factor in success in the NFL and in fantasy.
Personally I am not sure if Marquise Brown deserves to be mentioned amongst that small list - I mean he has scored 15 TDs over 2 seasons and the next highest on that list is Treadwell/Harry at 4. His Yards per Reception & Yards/Game have both increased despite what some would consider a disappointing season by Lamar Jackson. Lastly, hes been a top 36 finish in 14 games, which may seem relatively low but over the past 2 years no WR has had more than 21 top 36 finishes. He's right there with guys like Boyd, Cooks, Kupp & Lockett in terms for being lineup useful in a start 3 WR league.

So if people drafted him where Cameron Giles was recommending him (back half of 1st / early 2nd) you have gotten pretty much what the cost allocation was - a flex / WR 3 guy for depth early on - he was not a usually top 3 pick. If you were anticipating a WR1 breakout right away *shrugs*. We just had one of the best WR classes since 2014 and only 1 of them got past 1k yards.

Obviously Waddles situation & opportunity will factor in and determine, much like most other WRs, how quickly their production progression will be. But of course as a projected 1st round draft pick, his opportunity is likely to at least be similar to Marquise Browns, and that is promising as a start. However yes, there are situations that would be preferable to be avoided if only due to scheme and offensive mind set. Waddle would be more productive (I think) with a Sean Payton / Sean McVay / Andy Reid type offensive mind, than not.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:37 am

ArrylT wrote: Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:17 am
Personally I am not sure if Marquise Brown deserves to be mentioned amongst that small list - I mean he has scored 15 TDs over 2 seasons and the next highest on that list is Treadwell/Harry at 4. His Yards per Reception & Yards/Game have both increased despite what some would consider a disappointing season by Lamar Jackson. Lastly, hes been a top 36 finish in 14 games, which may seem relatively low but over the past 2 years no WR has had more than 21 top 36 finishes. He's right there with guys like Boyd, Cooks, Kupp & Lockett in terms for being lineup useful in a start 3 WR league.

So if people drafted him where Cameron Giles was recommending him (back half of 1st / early 2nd) you have gotten pretty much what the cost allocation was - a flex / WR 3 guy for depth early on - he was not a usually top 3 pick. If you were anticipating a WR1 breakout right away *shrugs*. We just had one of the best WR classes since 2014 and only 1 of them got past 1k yards.

Obviously Waddles situation & opportunity will factor in and determine, much like most other WRs, how quickly their production progression will be. But of course as a projected 1st round draft pick, his opportunity is likely to at least be similar to Marquise Browns, and that is promising as a start. However yes, there are situations that would be preferable to be avoided if only due to scheme and offensive mind set. Waddle would be more productive (I think) with a Sean Payton / Sean McVay / Andy Reid type offensive mind, than not.
Correct. At the time, Brown was going 2.05-2.10 in rookie drafts despite the fact that he was being mocked as a first round WR consistently by scouts. It was a great oportunity to take a cheap flyer on a high talent, who was being discounted by narratives that weren't entirely true.

Waddle doesn't present as much of a value despite missing most of the season with an injury, but he looked really good to start the year and was possibly en route to his own Heisman campaign.

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby ArrylT » Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:07 pm

Welcome to Miami Dolphins!
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Waddle: Do you believe?

Postby mild » Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:09 pm

Well I guess Miami believes!


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