Final 2021 Rookie RB Rankings -- Pre & Post NFL Draft (UPDATED 5/2)

[Bronco Billy]

Do you have Williams rated higher than Harris and Etienne too?

Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah

I agree with a lot of this...Except for the spelling of Etienne.

And I’ve been spelling it correctly all along right up until now. Guess that shows where sobriety get you...

[zeeshan2]

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports most people he has spoken with believe Pittsburgh will take RB Najee Harris with the No. 24 pick in the draft.

A lot can happen in the first 23 picks but this pairing is becoming increasingly popular in mock drafts. Pittsburgh's ground game was completely inactive last year. They managed just 82.5 rushing yards per game, last in the league by a considerable margin. The team let RB James Conner walk in free agency and has yet to make any effort to replace him. A struggling offensive line didn't help Conner last year but all signs point to the Steelers seeing running back as one of their biggest holes.

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1387098478501900290

[Bronco Billy]

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports most people he has spoken with believe Pittsburgh will take RB Najee Harris with the No. 24 pick in the draft.

A lot can happen in the first 23 picks but this pairing is becoming increasingly popular in mock drafts. Pittsburgh's ground game was completely inactive last year. They managed just 82.5 rushing yards per game, last in the league by a considerable margin. The team let RB James Conner walk in free agency and has yet to make any effort to replace him. A struggling offensive line didn't help Conner last year but all signs point to the Steelers seeing running back as one of their biggest holes.

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1387098478501900290

This would downgrade Harris significantly IMO. So many FFers are grading the Steelers based on a perception of what they used to be. The O-line is now 100% committed to keeping Ben upright and their run blocking is nothing short of throw-up-in-your-mouth putrid. Any RB that goes there is going to have to do a lot for themselves and are going to get beaten to a pulp.

[MEuRaH]

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports most people he has spoken with believe Pittsburgh will take RB Najee Harris with the No. 24 pick in the draft.

A lot can happen in the first 23 picks but this pairing is becoming increasingly popular in mock drafts. Pittsburgh's ground game was completely inactive last year. They managed just 82.5 rushing yards per game, last in the league by a considerable margin. The team let RB James Conner walk in free agency and has yet to make any effort to replace him. A struggling offensive line didn't help Conner last year but all signs point to the Steelers seeing running back as one of their biggest holes.

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1387098478501900290

This would downgrade Harris significantly IMO. So many FFers are grading the Steelers based on a perception of what they used to be. The O-line is now 100% committed to keeping Ben upright and their run blocking is nothing short of throw-up-in-your-mouth putrid. Any RB that goes there is going to have to do a lot for themselves and are going to get beaten to a pulp.

Yeah that's a terrible spot for Harris.

I don't put too much stock in rumors though. Teams always float out lies or misdirections. In 2018 the Niners had a top 10 pick and used it on tackle Mike McGlinchy, who said it was a complete shock because nobody on that team attended his workouts or gave him an interview or anything. It's only one example but I know it happens all the time. We also didn't know the Browns were going to select Mayfield until the day of, if I remember correctly.

[Dynos]

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1387098478501900290

This would downgrade Harris significantly IMO. So many FFers are grading the Steelers based on a perception of what they used to be. The O-line is now 100% committed to keeping Ben upright and their run blocking is nothing short of throw-up-in-your-mouth putrid. Any RB that goes there is going to have to do a lot for themselves and are going to get beaten to a pulp.

Yeah that's a terrible spot for Harris.

I don't put too much stock in rumors though. Teams always float out lies or misdirections. In 2018 the Niners had a top 10 pick and used it on tackle Mike McGlinchy, who said it was a complete shock because nobody on that team attended his workouts or gave him an interview or anything. It's only one example but I know it happens all the time. We also didn't know the Browns were going to select Mayfield until the day of, if I remember correctly.

If i remember correctly the Browns didn't go to Mayfield proday

The year after Cards did the same by not going to Murray proday.

This year i know urban meyer didn't go to zach wilson proday, but i doubt they will skip lawrence lol
https://www.nbcsports.com/video/jaguars ... ns-pro-day

[kadun2]

Where do you think he'll settle out in average ADP and where are you going to be targeting him personally as a value pick (draft spot notwithstanding)?

I'd be happy using a third on him. Where his ADP averages out will depend entirely on landing spot. I can't even guess on that one.

Appreciate your opinions, Mike. Nice write-up!
I’m keeping an eye on Sermon.

Hey thanks, and so am I. Boom or bust pick with a landing spot that could also make or break his career. It's going to be fun!

Pretty good landing spot in SF for Sermon, I’d say.

[MEuRaH]

Where do you think he'll settle out in average ADP and where are you going to be targeting him personally as a value pick (draft spot notwithstanding)?

I'd be happy using a third on him. Where his ADP averages out will depend entirely on landing spot. I can't even guess on that one.

Appreciate your opinions, Mike. Nice write-up!
I’m keeping an eye on Sermon.

Hey thanks, and so am I. Boom or bust pick with a landing spot that could also make or break his career. It's going to be fun!

Pretty good landing spot in SF for Sermon, I’d say.

A very solid spot! As a 49er fan, I strongly approve drafting RBs in the third and fourth round. Mostert is fast and strong, but he also gets hurt a lot. Serman is an excellent depth pick... who also gets hurt a lot haha!

I think the 49ers might draft another RB later on. I wouldn't be shocked. But that Sermon spot is definitely a primo location.

[CGW]

I'd be happy using a third on him. Where his ADP averages out will depend entirely on landing spot. I can't even guess on that one.


Hey thanks, and so am I. Boom or bust pick with a landing spot that could also make or break his career. It's going to be fun!

Pretty good landing spot in SF for Sermon, I’d say.

A very solid spot! As a 49er fan, I strongly approve drafting RBs in the third and fourth round. Mostert is fast and strong, but he also gets hurt a lot. Serman is an excellent depth pick... who also gets hurt a lot haha!

I think the 49ers might draft another RB later on. I wouldn't be shocked. But that Sermon spot is definitely a primo location.

Where do you think that puts his adp? I've done well picking up the 49ers depth chart and rotating in whoever is healthy to my flex.

[jcc6fd]

Came here to say Sermon is about to fly up draft boards. Some of the 2nd tier WRs got crap landing spots. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sermon become the consensus 1.08 in 1 QB leagues with potential to go higher on landing spot alone

[MEuRaH]

Where do you think that puts his adp? I've done well picking up the 49ers depth chart and rotating in whoever is healthy to my flex.

Hard to say. If I were to rank all rookies I think he'd be at the top of my second round selections, but there are so few top RBs to draft this time around that people may reach for him in the late first.

Came here to say Sermon is about to fly up draft boards. Some of the 2nd tier WRs got crap landing spots. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sermon become the consensus 1.08 in 1 QB leagues with potential to go higher on landing spot alone

Yep, and that's too early imo. I'd rather take one of these stellar WRs and trade for a RB later on. As much as I like Sermon, he has an injury history and the Niners tend to share the rock a lot. He's too risky to take in the first imo.

[CGW]

Where do you think that puts his adp? I've done well picking up the 49ers depth chart and rotating in whoever is healthy to my flex.

Hard to say. If I were to rank all rookies I think he'd be at the top of my second round selections, but there are so few top RBs to draft this time around that people may reach for him in the late first.

Came here to say Sermon is about to fly up draft boards. Some of the 2nd tier WRs got crap landing spots. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sermon become the consensus 1.08 in 1 QB leagues with potential to go higher on landing spot alone

Yep, and that's too early imo. I'd rather take one of these stellar WRs and trade for a RB later on. As much as I like Sermon, he has an injury history and the Niners tend to share the rock a lot. He's too risky to take in the first imo.

That's about what I was expecting. If he goes in the 1st I won't own him anywhere. If he makes it to the mid to late 2nd in SF he's more appealing.

[Lord_Varys]

Came here to say Sermon is about to fly up draft boards. Some of the 2nd tier WRs got crap landing spots. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sermon become the consensus 1.08 in 1 QB leagues with potential to go higher on landing spot alone

1.05 for me. He wasn't far off Javonte pre draft, for me, and San Fran is a top landing spot despite the narrative. Shanahan rotates guys, but the leader is always extremely productive. The leader often changes, but just because of injuries.

Changing gears ...
Javonte or Etienne for RB2?

I dont trust Urban Meyer and have some doubts about Etienne's elusiveness. Javonte will supplant MelGo in time.

[MEuRaH]

Came here to say Sermon is about to fly up draft boards. Some of the 2nd tier WRs got crap landing spots. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sermon become the consensus 1.08 in 1 QB leagues with potential to go higher on landing spot alone

1.05 for me. He wasn't far off Javonte pre draft, for me, and San Fran is a top landing spot despite the narrative. Shanahan rotates guys, but the leader is always extremely productive. The leader often changes, but just because of injuries.

Changing gears ...
Javonte or Etienne for RB2?

I dont trust Urban Meyer and have some doubts about Etienne's elusiveness. Javonte will supplant MelGo in time.

Etienne for me and it's no contest imo, but I completely understand if someone wanted J Williams, who has a clearer path towards starting and is in a location that historically has been very generous to running backs. That mile high air is hell on defenses.

Every time I think about the situation Williams is in, I like it more and more. He landed in such a great spot and in an offense that suits his style. He's very lucky and his owners will be happy for the next 4-6 years minimum. But I don't think he'll have enough of a ceiling to be a consistent top 10 back like Etienne.

[Jigga94]

I didn't think the NFL would like Sermon enough. But then he got day 2 draft capital and the best situation possible.

How do you feel the SF depth chart looks? Mostert, Wilson and Hasty all have 1 year left (Hasty being an ERFA). Gallman is also there, for now. I was thinking before it would be a split again between Mostert/Wilson and then of course next man up with all the injuries. Who is Sermon likely to take touches away from? Will he get all that much work year 1 outside of injury? Regardless of year 1 though, Sermon is the only one projected to be around in 2022. Maybe they bring back Wilson and Hasty for cheap

[Avery]

I didn't think the NFL would like Sermon enough. But then he got day 2 draft capital and the best situation possible.

How do you feel the SF depth chart looks? Mostert, Wilson and Hasty all have 1 year left (Hasty being an ERFA). Gallman is also there, for now. I was thinking before it would be a split again between Mostert/Wilson and then of course next man up with all the injuries. Who is Sermon likely to take touches away from? Will he get all that much work year 1 outside of injury? Regardless of year 1 though, Sermon is the only one projected to be around in 2022. Maybe they bring back Wilson and Hasty for cheap

I don't see a path to Sermon getting regular meaningful carries barring multiple injuries although the same argument can be made for all drafted RBs short of Harris. I think he gets worked in a bit this year, and gets a chance to take a lead role next year but, like many RBs, a lot of that depends on how well he blocks and protects the QB. Something their rookie QB will need when he gets in.