dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:14 am
This year's class is the deepest I've ever seen. It's not deep with starters, but it is deep with RBBC and COP backs. There are some excellent players to be had in this draft, and because it's so deep and RB is so easily replaceable, we may see a lot of these guys fall into rounds 4 and beyond. Historically any RB taken in round 4 or later isn't worth your time as a fantasy owner, but I think this year you can make an exception.
This also probably isn't my best year scouting running backs. There were so many to watch and review that I ran out of time. I would normally spend 8-10 hours of research per player, but this year I just couldn't do that because of how deep the position is. That said, this is the most amount of time I've ever spent researching prospects. I started in February and I kept at it almost daily from then until now. I'm going to try to spend a little more time researching so I feel a little more comfortable when I release my post-draft ranks, but I just don't think there's enough time in a day to do that. This is the most insecure I've felt about ranks in a long time.
If you need RB but you don't have much until the second or third rounds -- or even the 4th round -- you could be OK. because the depth is just incredible this year.
These are my rankings in tiers, although I tried to put them in order this time around. It gives us all something to give opinions and comments about. Have fun agreeing or disagreeing!
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HERE ARE MY PRE-NFL DRAFT RANKS
Article 1:
https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2021/ ... p-rbs-1-4/
Article 2:
https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2021/ ... p-rbs-5-8/
Article 3:
https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2021/ ... -rbs-9-12/
Article 4: POSTING SOON
Article 5: POST-DRAFT
——— RB Early 1st Rounders
Travis Etienne - PPR stud. Kamara comp. Highest ceiling of all backs in the draft. Day 1 starter. 10 year Career.
Najee Harris - Highest floor of all backs. Zeke comp. Day 1 starter. 10 year career.
——— RB Mid-to-Late 1st Rounders
Kylin Hill - I think he'll shock most people as a top 5 back taken in the NFL draft on day 2. Easily the best value in dynasty leagues right now. Kid can fly, has great vision, great size, can catch, etc. I question his ability to transition mentally to the pros (based on interviews). He'll never ever be elite, but he has the makings of a top 15 or even top 10 back for a few seasons. 6-10 year career, day 1 starter.
Trey Sermon - My fourth favorite back in the draft. He lacks top end speed and has an injury history, but everything else in his game is elite. If you draft him you're taking a chance that he can stay heathy, but if you're right then you got yourself a weekly starter. 2-10 year career, all based on ability to avoid injuries. Could easily be a day 1 starter.
——— RB Late 1st or Early-Mid 2nd Rounders
Javonte Williams - This is a back I don't love. I think he's just fine and he'll be this starter you're going to be forced to start. A lot of people think he'll be the third back taken in this draft, and I'm not 100% sure of that. I'm going to be avoiding him in all rookie drafts since I think equal or better value can be had later. He'll start out fine but I think he'll fizzle over time. Day 1 starter or RBBC, 4-6 year career.
Chuba Hubbard - Good but not great at everything. True student of the game. Lacks elite talent. Day 1 starter or RBBC. 4-8 year career. Much more of a 2nd rounder than a 1st.
——— RB Mid-Late 2nd to Early 3rd Rounders
Michael Carter - RBBC and COP for now, but could find himself as a starter if an NFL team can overlook his size. Hard to tackle, great at catching passes, and perhaps one of the best values in the draft. 8 year career. Mid to Late 2nd value in PPR, all else = 3rd rounder.
Jaret Patterson - One of my favorite backs in the whole draft. Huge power and speed in such a compact frame. Played against weaker opponents (MAC) but dominated the field, which is what one should do if they are elite. Scored an NCAA record eight touchdowns in one game, and every single one of those touchdowns were earned, not given. More impressive highlights than I can recall. May not be a starter day one and may not ever be "the" guy, but should be given the chance. Could have an MJD type career at his ceiling. Could be a career 1B at worst. Huge value pick in all formats.
Kenneth "Kenny" Gainwell - PPR value is through the roof. Hasn't played football in over a year (opted out of 2020). Lines up in the slot a lot. Will be a great RBBC and COP back. 6-10 year career. Mid to Late 2nd value in PPR, all else = 3rd rounder.
Khalil Herbert - Could be one of the biggest risers due to landing spot. Good but not great in all aspects of the game. RBBC, COP, or career backup. Could be the starter when someone goes down, in which he should put up a great game or two, and that's when you sell high and move on. Otherwise he'll just be a flex play at best for his career.
Elijah Mitchell - More of a third round pick tbh. Elite speed, vision, and great power for a guy his size (5'10" 201). Looked good on tape but vs weaker defenses. Doesn't have enough lateral speed or inside power to be a starter. He's a great COP or backup, and someday may look like a stud and dominate a game or two, and that's when you sell. He won't be an every down back. 6-8 year career.
Chris Evans - You're probably saying "
Who?" This kid has all the tools to be a starter, but also has a lengthy injury history, and will be 24 years old as a rookie. He's honestly one of the better backs I scouted, but his constant injuries made him difficult to love. If his landing spot is good, you can take him and cross your fingers. The reward potential is high, but so is the risk. 4-6 years at best.
——— RB Mid-Late 3rd to Early-Mid 4th Rounders
Pooka Williams - Way too small to ever be a starter, but if there's one back in this whole draft who can surprise it's definitely Pooka. Great highlights and great instincts. His foot was mangled as a kid, forever deformed, but he still prevailed. Also arrested for assault on a female, and his interviews are less than impressive. Huge risk-reward guy and should be an early to mid third round pick.
Javian Hawkins - Way too small to ever be a starter. PPR guy at best.
——— RB Mid to Late 4th Rounders
Greg McCrae - Too small to ever be the starter (175 pounds) but a shifty kid who could be of some PPR value.
Jermar Jefferson - RBBC at best, backup at worst. Goal line and short yardage carries also possible. 4 year career, maybe a couple more as he bounces around from team to team.
Rhamondre Stevenson - Short yardage and goal line at best. Big and slow.
Larry Rountree - Short yardage and goal line at best.
——— RB Dart Throws
Kene Nwangwu - My favorite dart throw. He's not just fast, he's "10th best all-time" fast with a 4.29 40. He also had very good measurables in other pro day drills. He's 6'1" 210 pounds, so to be that big and that fast is impressive in itself. He didn't run for a whole lot of yards at Iowa, mostly being confined to returning kicks and punts. Who knows?
Gerrid Doaks - This big man has nifty moves and decent speed for his size. Room to grow.
Jake Funk - Do you guys remember Peyton Hillis? He was good for one season for really no reason? That's Jake Funk. Odd ball dart throw that could pay off where you can flip him.
Garret Groshek -
One of the more fun runs I've seen this year came from this kid. Big kid who can move, played with Jonathan Taylor for two years in Wisconsin.
Rakeem Boyd - Just a fast kid. I hate his mechanics. Nice talent, lacks everything else. Huge project pick for any NFL team.
Deon Jackson - I kind of like this kid and I wish I didn't. He's bigger than most backs but not by much. He ran a fast 4.41 40, and played in the ACC. Nothing about him made me go "wow" but his measurables make him someone worth knowing about.
——— RB Bust List
Demetric Felton - Terrible. Nothing I liked.
I also looked at:
Stevie Scott
Trey Ragas
Spencer Brown
Greg McCrae
Brendon Knox
Jah-Maine Martin
Nate McCrary
CJ Verdell
Otis Anderson
Gary Brightwell
Corey Dauphine
Bryson Denley
Justin Henderson (He's 5'7", 220 pounds!)
Josh Johnson
Jamal Jones
CJ Marable
Sandon McCoy
Dedrick Mills
AJ Rose
Mekhi Sargent
Harry Trotter
Israel Tucker (Downhill runner with nifty moves. If he goes to an offense that supports his style, he's a dart throw).
None of these guys popped off the page to me. They are so far off the radar that I don't want to call them busts, but not really dart throws either. I like Nate McCrary, who is a small school kid with great size and speed, but he's a complete project player. I don't think he'll turn into anything, but I'm rooting for him.
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HERE ARE MY POST-NFL DRAFT RANKS
——— RB Early 1st Rounders
TBD
——— RB Mid-to-Late 1st Rounders
TBD
——— RB Late 1st or Early-Mid 2nd Rounders
TBD
——— RB Mid-Late 2nd to Early 3rd Rounders
TBD
——— RB Mid-Late 3rd to Early-Mid 4th Rounders
TBD
——— RB Mid to Late 4th Rounders
TBD
——— RB Dart Throws
TBD
——— RB Bust List
Demetric Felton - Seriously, I don't care if he's the 1.01 pick. Do not draft him.
