Final 2021 Rookie RB Rankings -- Pre & Post NFL Draft (UPDATED 5/2)

[MEuRaH]

HERE ARE MY POST-NFL DRAFT RANKS
This is my ultimate final rank for the 2021 draft class, based on landing spot. Michael Carter is the best value, Chris Evans is my favorite dart throw, Patterson you could probably get very late or even as a FA, the top 2 RBs are worthy of early selections, and I'd probably avoid the rest due to being over-drafted or under-whelming.

——— RB Early 1st Rounders
Najee Harris
Travis Etienne

——— RB Mid-to-Late 1st Rounders
Javonte Williams

——— RB Late 1st or Early-Mid 2nd Rounders
Michael Carter

——— RB Mid-Late 2nd to Early 3rd Rounders
Trey Sermon

——— RB Mid-Late 3rd to Early-Mid 4th Rounders
Khalil Herbert
Kenny Gainwell
Chris Evans
Jaret Patterson

——— RB Mid to Late 4th Rounders
Chuba Hubbard
Elijah Mitchell

——— RB Dart Throws
Gerrid Doaks
Jake Funk
Pooka Williams (PPR Leagues)
Javian Hawkins (PPR Leagues)

——— RB WHY OH WHY DID YOU LAND IN GREEN BAY!? Value = ZERO, sad face
Kylin Hill

——— Does Your League Value Return Yards? Take This Guy
Kene Nwangwu

——— RB Bust List
Rhamondre Stevenson
Gary Brightwell
Larry Rountree
Jermar Jefferson

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BELOW = PRE-DRAFT RANKS
=====================================================

This year's class is the deepest I've ever seen. It's not deep with starters, but it is deep with RBBC and COP backs. There are some excellent players to be had in this draft, and because it's so deep and RB is so easily replaceable, we may see a lot of these guys fall into rounds 4 and beyond. Historically any RB taken in round 4 or later isn't worth your time as a fantasy owner, but I think this year you can make an exception.

This also probably isn't my best year scouting running backs. There were so many to watch and review that I ran out of time. I would normally spend 8-10 hours of research per player, but this year I just couldn't do that because of how deep the position is. That said, this is the most amount of time I've ever spent researching prospects. I started in February and I kept at it almost daily from then until now. I'm going to try to spend a little more time researching so I feel a little more comfortable when I release my post-draft ranks, but I just don't think there's enough time in a day to do that. This is the most insecure I've felt about ranks in a long time.

If you need RB but you don't have much until the second or third rounds -- or even the 4th round -- you could be OK. because the depth is just incredible this year. These are my rankings in tiers, although I tried to put them in order this time around. It gives us all something to give opinions and comments about. Have fun agreeing or disagreeing!

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HERE ARE MY PRE-NFL DRAFT RANKS

Article 1: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2021/ ... p-rbs-1-4/
Article 2: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2021/ ... p-rbs-5-8/
Article 3: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2021/ ... -rbs-9-12/
Article 4: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2021/ ... rbs-13-17/
Article 5: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2021/ ... -rankings/

——— RB Early 1st Rounders
Travis Etienne - PPR stud. Kamara comp. Highest ceiling of all backs in the draft. Day 1 starter. 10 year Career.
Najee Harris - Highest floor of all backs. Zeke comp. Day 1 starter. 10 year career.

——— RB Mid-to-Late 1st Rounders
Kylin Hill - I think he'll shock most people as a top 5 back taken in the NFL draft on day 2. Easily the best value in dynasty leagues right now. Kid can fly, has great vision, great size, can catch, etc. I question his ability to transition mentally to the pros (based on interviews). He'll never ever be elite, but he has the makings of a top 15 or even top 10 back for a few seasons. 6-10 year career, day 1 starter.
Trey Sermon - My fourth favorite back in the draft. He lacks top end speed and has an injury history, but everything else in his game is elite. If you draft him you're taking a chance that he can stay heathy, but if you're right then you got yourself a weekly starter. 2-10 year career, all based on ability to avoid injuries. Could easily be a day 1 starter.

——— RB Late 1st or Early-Mid 2nd Rounders
Javonte Williams - This is a back I don't love. I think he's just fine and he'll be this starter you're going to be forced to start. A lot of people think he'll be the third back taken in this draft, and I'm not 100% sure of that. I'm going to be avoiding him in all rookie drafts since I think equal or better value can be had later. He'll start out fine but I think he'll fizzle over time. Day 1 starter or RBBC, 4-6 year career.
Chuba Hubbard - Good but not great at everything. True student of the game. Lacks elite talent. Day 1 starter or RBBC. 4-8 year career. Much more of a 2nd rounder than a 1st.

——— RB Mid-Late 2nd to Early 3rd Rounders
Michael Carter - RBBC and COP for now, but could find himself as a starter if an NFL team can overlook his size. Hard to tackle, great at catching passes, and perhaps one of the best values in the draft. 8 year career. Mid to Late 2nd value in PPR, all else = 3rd rounder.
Jaret Patterson - One of my favorite backs in the whole draft. Huge power and speed in such a compact frame. Played against weaker opponents (MAC) but dominated the field, which is what one should do if they are elite. Scored an NCAA record eight touchdowns in one game, and every single one of those touchdowns were earned, not given. More impressive highlights than I can recall. May not be a starter day one and may not ever be "the" guy, but should be given the chance. Could have an MJD type career at his ceiling. Could be a career 1B at worst. Huge value pick in all formats.
Kenneth "Kenny" Gainwell - PPR value is through the roof. Hasn't played football in over a year (opted out of 2020). Lines up in the slot a lot. Will be a great RBBC and COP back. 6-10 year career. Mid to Late 2nd value in PPR, all else = 3rd rounder.
Khalil Herbert - Could be one of the biggest risers due to landing spot. Good but not great in all aspects of the game. RBBC, COP, or career backup. Could be the starter when someone goes down, in which he should put up a great game or two, and that's when you sell high and move on. Otherwise he'll just be a flex play at best for his career.
Elijah Mitchell - More of a third round pick tbh. Elite speed, vision, and great power for a guy his size (5'10" 201). Looked good on tape but vs weaker defenses. Doesn't have enough lateral speed or inside power to be a starter. He's a great COP or backup, and someday may look like a stud and dominate a game or two, and that's when you sell. He won't be an every down back. 6-8 year career.
Chris Evans - You're probably saying "Who?" This kid has all the tools to be a starter, but also has a lengthy injury history, and will be 24 years old as a rookie. He's honestly one of the better backs I scouted, but his constant injuries made him difficult to love. If his landing spot is good, you can take him and cross your fingers. The reward potential is high, but so is the risk. 4-6 years at best.

——— RB Mid-Late 3rd to Early-Mid 4th Rounders
Pooka Williams - Way too small to ever be a starter, but if there's one back in this whole draft who can surprise it's definitely Pooka. Great highlights and great instincts. His foot was mangled as a kid, forever deformed, but he still prevailed. Also arrested for assault on a female, and his interviews are less than impressive. Huge risk-reward guy and should be an early to mid third round pick.
Javian Hawkins - Way too small to ever be a starter. PPR guy at best.

——— RB Mid to Late 4th Rounders
Greg McCrae - Too small to ever be the starter (175 pounds) but a shifty kid who could be of some PPR value.
Jermar Jefferson - RBBC at best, backup at worst. Goal line and short yardage carries also possible. 4 year career, maybe a couple more as he bounces around from team to team.
Rhamondre Stevenson - Short yardage and goal line at best. Big and slow.
Larry Rountree - Short yardage and goal line at best.

——— RB Dart Throws
Kene Nwangwu - My favorite dart throw. He's not just fast, he's "10th best all-time" fast with a 4.29 40. He also had very good measurables in other pro day drills. He's 6'1" 210 pounds, so to be that big and that fast is impressive in itself. He didn't run for a whole lot of yards at Iowa, mostly being confined to returning kicks and punts. Who knows?
Gerrid Doaks - This big man has nifty moves and decent speed for his size. Room to grow.
Jake Funk - Do you guys remember Peyton Hillis? He was good for one season for really no reason? That's Jake Funk. Odd ball dart throw that could pay off where you can flip him.
Garret Groshek - One of the more fun runs I've seen this year came from this kid. Big kid who can move, played with Jonathan Taylor for two years in Wisconsin.
Rakeem Boyd - Just a fast kid. I hate his mechanics. Nice talent, lacks everything else. Huge project pick for any NFL team.
Deon Jackson - I kind of like this kid and I wish I didn't. He's bigger than most backs but not by much. He ran a fast 4.41 40, and played in the ACC. Nothing about him made me go "wow" but his measurables make him someone worth knowing about.

——— RB Bust List
Demetric Felton - Terrible. Nothing I liked.

I also looked at:
Stevie Scott
Trey Ragas
Spencer Brown
Greg McCrae
Brendon Knox
Jah-Maine Martin
Nate McCrary
CJ Verdell
Otis Anderson
Gary Brightwell
Corey Dauphine
Bryson Denley
Justin Henderson (He's 5'7", 220 pounds!)
Josh Johnson
Jamal Jones
CJ Marable
Sandon McCoy
Dedrick Mills
AJ Rose
Mekhi Sargent
Harry Trotter
Israel Tucker (Downhill runner with nifty moves. If he goes to an offense that supports his style, he's a dart throw).

None of these guys popped off the page to me. They are so far off the radar that I don't want to call them busts, but not really dart throws either. I like Nate McCrary, who is a small school kid with great size and speed, but he's a complete project player. I don't think he'll turn into anything, but I'm rooting for him.

[ArrylT]

Thanks for sharing! Basically how I feel as well, in terms of how I feel about the 2021 RB class. If some of these guys go to the right situation/scheme - watch out. I think this is going to be a great year if you're an owner in a league with large rosters, or if you're an owner who is adept and monitoring players & making surgical strikes on the waivers. Look forward to seeing your articles come out - and especially to seeing how this draft shakes things up.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Kylin Hill - I think he'll shock most people as a top 5 back taken in the NFL draft on day 2. Easily the best value in dynasty leagues right now. Kid can fly, has great vision, great size, can catch, etc. I question his ability to transition mentally to the pros (based on interviews).

Can you explain this and provide an example?

[MEuRaH]

Kylin Hill - I think he'll shock most people as a top 5 back taken in the NFL draft on day 2. Easily the best value in dynasty leagues right now. Kid can fly, has great vision, great size, can catch, etc. I question his ability to transition mentally to the pros (based on interviews).

Can you explain this and provide an example?

I am huge into interviews. I forget what city I was in or even the name of the coach I was with anymore, but he used to be a scout for several NFL franchises. He told us (I was part of a lecture group) to watch interviews and dissect a player's response to football questions. Are they rehearsed? Are they vague? Do the players give detailed descriptions of football knowledge? Do they have genuine excitement about football? Do they know any history? etc. His words, paraphrased: "Players who display acute football knowledge give a hint into their preparation of the game off the field and also who they are as a person."

I watch interviews in 3 sections: High School, Post High School, Pre-NFL. I look for history and growth. The three worst interviews I've ever seen in order? Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Darrell Henderson, Ronald Jones.

Hill has decent interviews, but when asked about the NFL his answers align with "being a star" and "getting paid", even all the way back to his high school days. That's not necessarily the stuff I want to hear out of any running back. His interviews did display great football knowledge and he oozed with confidence, but to think it'll be that easy to make a living, that made me worry a little bit. The mental transition is the hardest part (no source to give on this, just what I've heard several times from former players) and if I think a player can't handle the transition, that's a knock on their scouting report to me.

It's like football has always been easy for him, so he's just expecting to be great and doesn't realize the challenge ahead of him. It's a slight concern I have, but not a huge knock on him overall.

[Dynos]

thanks great post! would be nice to see kylin hill in atlanta!!

[dustyroads]

Been equally high on Patterson, probably have him as my 4th favorite pre-draft (actually right along with Stevenson who I think doesn't get enough credit for his pass catching and wiggle in small space for being such a mac truck), but either way, trying to find the sweet spot for targeting him in rookie drafts. Been in 12 team 4 round mocks where he's not even taken; and found his high water mark to be late 2nd (I'm thinking either a Buffalo fan or a real truther cause this felt high to me). Where do you think he'll settle out in average ADP and where are you going to be targeting him personally as a value pick (draft spot notwithstanding)?

[kadun2]

Appreciate your opinions, Mike. Nice write-up!
I’m keeping an eye on Sermon.

[MEuRaH]

Where do you think he'll settle out in average ADP and where are you going to be targeting him personally as a value pick (draft spot notwithstanding)?

I'd be happy using a third on him. Where his ADP averages out will depend entirely on landing spot. I can't even guess on that one.

Appreciate your opinions, Mike. Nice write-up!
I’m keeping an eye on Sermon.

Hey thanks, and so am I. Boom or bust pick with a landing spot that could also make or break his career. It's going to be fun!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Can you expand a little bit on this: You have Etienne as the best prospect since Saquon, and then you also have Najee in the same tier as Etienne. So do you have Najee as the 2nd best prospect since Saquon, or if not, how would you shuffle him into the other classes.

[cantguardjake]

Great work Mike, I listed a lot of these names in the Etienne thread not realising you had posted this.

I like that you also like McCrary, he’s up against it being small school but I liked what a saw and he’s an elite athlete, don’t think I’ve seen anyone else mention him.

I also agree there is a lot of COP type players, and only a few starters.

Also love Kylin, have said it before but not really sure why he isn’t generating more buzz he was firmly on my radar last year and has shown he is 3 down now.

Edit: Chris Evans is probably my rb6 “best of the rest” right now, huge red flag with his age and injury history as you’ve stated though. Probably won’t have any relevant draft capital because of it but I’ll be watching with interest.

[cantguardjake]

Kylin Hill - I think he'll shock most people as a top 5 back taken in the NFL draft on day 2. Easily the best value in dynasty leagues right now. Kid can fly, has great vision, great size, can catch, etc. I question his ability to transition mentally to the pros (based on interviews).

Can you explain this and provide an example?

I am huge into interviews. I forget what city I was in or even the name of the coach I was with anymore, but he used to be a scout for several NFL franchises. He told us (I was part of a lecture group) to watch interviews and dissect a player's response to football questions. Are they rehearsed? Are they vague? Do the players give detailed descriptions of football knowledge? Do they have genuine excitement about football? Do they know any history? etc. His words, paraphrased: "Players who display acute football knowledge give a hint into their preparation of the game off the field and also who they are as a person."

I watch interviews in 3 sections: High School, Post High School, Pre-NFL. I look for history and growth. The three worst interviews I've ever seen in order? Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Darrell Henderson, Ronald Jones.

Hill has decent interviews, but when asked about the NFL his answers align with "being a star" and "getting paid", even all the way back to his high school days. That's not necessarily the stuff I want to hear out of any running back. His interviews did display great football knowledge and he oozed with confidence, but to think it'll be that easy to make a living, that made me worry a little bit. The mental transition is the hardest part (no source to give on this, just what I've heard several times from former players) and if I think a player can't handle the transition, that's a knock on their scouting report to me.

It's like football has always been easy for him, so he's just expecting to be great and doesn't realize the challenge ahead of him. It's a slight concern I have, but not a huge knock on him overall.

Interested to get your thoughts on Etienne’s interviews. He seems like a great character, however I’ve seen him mention multiple times that he often goes home in the offseason and blows out weight wise on a bad diet, which seems nitpicky but I found it interesting because players really do need to prepare 100% to make it in the NFL.

Probably the only knock I have on him, which shows how good he really is to be honest.

[MEuRaH]

Can you expand a little bit on this: You have Etienne as the best prospect since Saquon, and then you also have Najee in the same tier as Etienne. So do you have Najee as the 2nd best prospect since Saquon, or if not, how would you shuffle him into the other classes.

Good one!

The tier I created is "early first round pick worthy". Etienne to me is 1.01 or 1.02 at worst given the Chase draft spot. Harris to me is maybe 1.02 to 1.05, depending on landing spot and league settings? Still an early pick but Etienne to me is far better given his potential ceiling. That top group of CMC/Kamara is the most untouchable group in all of fantasy, at their peak. Etienne has a far better chance to join that group than Harris does, imo.

As for Harris vs other classes... wow this is a good question. I wonder what other people's answer to this will be. If someone else could respond to this I'd like to hear it. I'm literally sitting here pondering that one.

If both of these guys were in last year's draft classes, Etienne would still be my no-contest #1 back, and Harris would probably be #2. The year before that? Harris would also be ranked higher than JJ or Sanders.

So yeah, maybe Harris would be my highest ranked back since Barkley as well. Huh, I hadn't considered that...

[dark_knite03]

Can you expand a little bit on this: You have Etienne as the best prospect since Saquon, and then you also have Najee in the same tier as Etienne. So do you have Najee as the 2nd best prospect since Saquon, or if not, how would you shuffle him into the other classes.

Good one!

The tier I created is "early first round pick worthy". Etienne to me is 1.01 or 1.02 at worst given the Chase draft spot. Harris to me is maybe 1.02 to 1.05, depending on landing spot and league settings? Still an early pick but Etienne to me is far better given his potential ceiling. That top group of CMC/Kamara is the most untouchable group in all of fantasy, at their peak. Etienne has a far better chance to join that group than Harris does, imo.

As for Harris vs other classes... wow this is a good question. I wonder what other people's answer to this will be. If someone else could respond to this I'd like to hear it. I'm literally sitting here pondering that one.

If both of these guys were in last year's draft classes, Etienne would still be my no-contest #1 back, and Harris would probably be #2. The year before that? Harris would also be ranked higher than JJ or Sanders.

So yeah, maybe Harris would be my highest ranked back since Barkley as well. Huh, I hadn't considered that...

You are saying you'd take both these guys over JT, Swift and CEH?

[MEuRaH]

Interested to get your thoughts on Etienne’s interviews. He seems like a great character, however I’ve seen him mention multiple times that he often goes home in the offseason and blows out weight wise on a bad diet, which seems nitpicky but I found it interesting because players really do need to prepare 100% to make it in the NFL.

Probably the only knock I have on him, which shows how good he really is to be honest.

Oh I thought he was joking. You think that was legit, eh? Kind of a knock on him if true. I had forgotten about that because I didn't think he was serious. He said it more than once? I only saw it one time. Hmm.

He also said that he played football because of his friends and never really liked it before that. Then when colleges started trying to recruit him he started watching it on TV because he "realized it was something I could do for a living". That was during the Carolina Panthers run with Cam Newton, who he said was his favorite player at the time. Most people at his age already love football by then and have for a long time, so that made me a little weary.

Yeah... that work ethic and desire is always hard to gauge. I hope he doesn't think he can just use pure talent and not study the game. The mental transition is the hardest part for most.

Thanks for the reply, that's good stuff. Looks like it's you and me on that Evans hype train.

[yinzername]

I have Evans dubiously ranked RB8 at 3.6 in my 12t SF draft. Coincidentally that is my pick, and my notes indicate I’d prefer to take whoever falls to me and let someone else take the shot on CE