GEDL Rookie Draft 2021

[Ice]

Chase >> Harris, Williams. The rbs will be landing spot dependent to an extent, but I'm generally fading ETN so he would need the best landing spot while Harris and Williams wound up in bad spots to make it to 2/3 for me. Chase I think is in a tier by himself pre-draft, and mostly landing spot proof post draft for me based on where he should realistically go. Like if he were to somehow drop to the Patriots I wouldn't be happy or expect as much year 1, but he'd still probably be my 1.01.

I actually have Pitts and Chase in a tier by themselves in a long term Dynasty View but RB's do provide early returns pretty consistently so it is understandable they go really high in rookie drafts.

I would take Pitts 1.1 and Chase 1.2 in any non SF rookie draft but both are really close IMO. Pitt's will line up in the X a ton unless his coaches are idiots.

[dustyroads]

Chase >> Harris, Williams. The rbs will be landing spot dependent to an extent, but I'm generally fading ETN so he would need the best landing spot while Harris and Williams wound up in bad spots to make it to 2/3 for me. Chase I think is in a tier by himself pre-draft, and mostly landing spot proof post draft for me based on where he should realistically go. Like if he were to somehow drop to the Patriots I wouldn't be happy or expect as much year 1, but he'd still probably be my 1.01.

I actually have Pitts and Chase in a tier by themselves in a long term Dynasty View but RB's do provide early returns pretty consistently so it is understandable they go really high in rookie drafts.

I would take Pitts 1.1 and Chase 1.2 in any non SF rookie draft but both are really close IMO. Pitt's will line up in the X a ton unless his coaches are idiots.

Good point, I'm still torn on where to really put Pitts and kinda gave up trying to find a spot seeing as I don't have picks anywhere that would likely land him outside 1.01, which is where I've been planning on taking Chase since early February hah. If he is there at 4/5 I will try to trade future picks to come in and get him hoping someone who misses on their desired RB wants to move out of their first round pick.

But yeah, talent wise, def Pitts in that top tier with Chase. And tbh, going by that thinking, I'd have TLaw somewhere in the 2nd tier with the 3 RBs and Waddle. (Big fade on Smith for me as well). I just don't know if the analytical part of my brain would ever allow me to take Pitts earlier than 4 or Lawrence earlier than 10 (pre-draft, landing spots notwithstanding) as much as they look like talents that will buck all previous trends, unless I had multiple firsts and could risk the gamble.

[Never Veto1]

Love this post and look forward to it every year. So much fun to watch. Thank you, Thank you!!

Love the trade for Leonte Carroo in 2016. Picked at the 1.06. The 1.05 was debating Henry and Carroo and settled on Henry. Trade made for the 1.06 to get Carroo traded away entire 2017 draft. The guy taken at 1.07 is Michael Thomas. Talk about Craziness.

[MARKinMI]

Love this post and look forward to it every year. So much fun to watch. Thank you, Thank you!!

Love the trade for Leonte Carroo in 2016. Picked at the 1.06. The 1.05 was debating Henry and Carroo and settled on Henry. Trade made for the 1.06 to get Carroo traded away entire 2017 draft. The guy taken at 1.07 is Michael Thomas. Talk about Craziness.

[ArrylT]

Well while the GEDL Draft is not yet complete, my part in the draft is (almost sadly). I may be mistaken, but in the past I have seen more owners in the league speak up about their drafts - however that may be my misinterpretation. Regardless, I'll comment on my actual draft selections soonish.

However I will say atm that I was quite happy with the overall results. I doubt it is a surprise to anyone that I am quite interested in and optimistic about the long-term prognosis of the 2021 class. With GEDL, I have now completed my 3rd and final pre-NFL Draft rookie draft.

Draft 1 - 7 selections
Draft 2 - 12 selections
Draft 3 - 9 selections

For an Average of just over 9.

We all do dynasty differently, and in fact we all likely approach rookie drafts differetly. I tend to go with a 4 tier approach

Tier 1 - Guys I want to own
Tier 2 - Guys I would be happy to own
Tier 3 - Guys I am comfortable owning if they fall to me as a value
Tier 4 - Guys I almost always avoid

Usually in most drafts, about 50-60% fall in the bottom 2 tiers. Why? Because I think it is important to determine the players you want to avoid owning, and those you want to avoid overpaying for. For example K'Shawn Vaughn was a Tier 4 guy for me - and so I ended up with 0 shares (and so far I was correct).

However in the 2021 Draft, I am finding myself in, while not the reverse situation, at least a much stronger top 2 tier situation. If I had to approximate I would say 25-30% Tier 1, 40-50% Tier 2, 15-20% & 10-15% Tier 4 - depending on the format. For example take QB - of say the top 10 QBs, I have only 1-2 who I am trying to decide between Tier 3-4 atm. Landing spot will likely be critical for post NFL draft drafts to help me make final determinations between Tier 2 & 3.

Interestingly enough, I did end up with a couple of players in all 3 drafts, I suppose because at the cost of draft capital, they were easy choices. Even if nothing comes of it - the cost where I got them made it very easy to want to see what the future holds. I'll get to my actual draft picks and comment on them sometime this weekend (hey if MFL is down may as well do something ).

[ArrylT]

The other thing I will touch upon for now is my starting spot. I am entering Year 3 with GEDL having taken over at the end of 2018, and so the 2021 draft was my 3rd. As is the case with many of my orphans, I tend to take a 6 months to year to tear down the roster, and then a 2+ year rebuild after that for a 3-4 year total overhaul. Anyways I think my GEDL team is starting to near the end this period and will hopefully enter the contending phase (which with many of my teams lasts for 5-6 years before the process restarts) by next year at the latest.

So I had the 1.03 at the beginning of the off-season. I ended up making a deal that I felt benefited my team without being too risky, as I had several elite young players in AJ Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster & CeeDee Lamb (all 25 or younger during 2021 season) and I wanted some depth with good upside.

So I traded the 1.03 & 2.13 for 1.12, 2.09, Corey Davis & Leonard Fournette.

Now admittedly, had the 1.03 turned out to be Ja'Marr Chase I think I may have had some mild regrets, but as it played out Chase went 1.01 so I remain quite happy with the deal, and I think that the player taken at 1.03 was the target of my trading partner (but not 100% sure) so I would hope that they remain happy with their end too. In the end, the best deal is a win/win deal.

The trade itself does not really make my team much older either - as both Davis & Fournette will be 26 in the 2021 season.

[ArrylT]

Time to quickly review my actual GEDL decisions

1.12 (#12) - Trey Sermon

Ironically enough only a couple of days later DLF_MikeH mentioned him favorably in his RB rankings. However my choice was made based on taking a different route than 2020. Last year I targeted guys I thought would become more valuable post NFL draft. This time I went with a guy who I felt I'd be more happy with regardless of where he landed. Sermon to me is an RB who is very solid across the board. Others will have better vision or better speed or better receiving, and so forth but imho Sermon does all of them well enough to find a fantasy valuable role.

I was also considering Trevor Lawrence, but felt it was not likely he would make it to 1.12 and I was correct in that projection.

2.03 (#17) - Tylan Wallace

Different players recover differently from the same injury(ies). That last 5-10% from 90/95 to 100% is usually the toughest hill to climb. I think Wallace was recovered enough to play at an acceptable level, but that there is still more to see and at this price I was open to finding out.

2.09 (#23) - Pat Freiermuth

I think that too much is focused on either/or. Dynasty shows us that there are multiple ways to build a team / win a league. As such I can be an advocate that Kyle Pitts is a safe bet at 1.06, but still be aware that getting Freiermuth, who comps favorably to a Hunter Henry (two straight top 12 finishes and this a 14 team league) , could be a value. I considered QB but QB was not a need and thought (wrong) that 1 might fall into the 3rd. Stick with BPA.

Fun Fact: My roster also has Hunter Henry
Fun Fact 2: Hunter Henry went 2.02 (#16) in 2016 GEDL

3.03 (#31) - Amari Rodgers

As I do not watch NCAA football in-season, I can admit I was not aware of Amari Rodgers as he was not a devy favorite in the devy leagues I am in. Like I mentioned on another thread it was only a few months ago that I got excited by how deep & versatile this class is, and a guy like Rodgers at 31 is a nice example.

4.03 (#45) - Josh Imatorbhebhe

I ended up with shares of him in all 3 of my pre-draft leagues, and cost-wise this was the least expensive. Admittedly he looks raw in some ways - but apart from having aspects of Dez Bryant to his game - he looks to be very good at dealing with press coverage - something that will serve him well in the NFL.

5.03 (#59) - Tommy Tremble

Just saw today that Daniel Jeremiah has him just outside his top 50 (this includes all positions not just skill) at 52. Also nabbed a share in one of my other pre-draft leagues, both of which have deep enough rosters & taxi squads, to allow me time to watch him develop.

5.07 (#63) - Cornell Powell

Similar to Rodgers in that I was not aware of him previous to my draft research - all I can say is that I honestly am surprised he lasted so long - apart from a reminder how deep this 2021 class is in terms of potential. I actually jumped back into the 2021 draft, trading with an owner who I knew was not very invested in the 2021 class, to ensure I got him, as I wasnt sure he'd make it to 6.03. Am obviously aware he was blocked by Higgins, Ross, Rodgers - but I do think with a little consistency he could become one of the best route runners of the 2021 class.

5.09 (#65) - Jalen Camp

The other pick I acquired with the 5.07 allowed me to take a shot on Camp. Georgia Tech may not have a great reputation for supplying Wide Receivers - but when they hit they hit. The last 2? Calvin Johnson & Demaryius Thomas. Darren Waller also balled at Georgia Tech. This guy though is more in the DK Metcalf mold though.

6.03 (#68) - Stevie Scott

Along with Imatorbhebhe, the other guy I have 3 shares of (so 100% so far). Compares to James Conner. However I think he'll go UDFA - which could be good or bad for situation & opportunity.

[KingsKing]

Time to quickly review my actual GEDL decisions

1.12 (#12) - Trey Sermon

Ironically enough only a couple of days later DLF_MikeH mentioned him favorably in his RB rankings. However my choice was made based on taking a different route than 2020. Last year I targeted guys I thought would become more valuable post NFL draft. This time I went with a guy who I felt I'd be more happy with regardless of where he landed. Sermon to me is an RB who is very solid across the board. Others will have better vision or better speed or better receiving, and so forth but imho Sermon does all of them well enough to find a fantasy valuable role.

I was also considering Trevor Lawrence, but felt it was not likely he would make it to 1.12 and I was correct in that projection.

2.03 (#17) - Tylan Wallace

Different players recover differently from the same injury(ies). That last 5-10% from 90/95 to 100% is usually the toughest hill to climb. I think Wallace was recovered enough to play at an acceptable level, but that there is still more to see and at this price I was open to finding out.

2.09 (#23) - Pat Freiermuth

I think that too much is focused on either/or. Dynasty shows us that there are multiple ways to build a team / win a league. As such I can be an advocate that Kyle Pitts is a safe bet at 1.06, but still be aware that getting Freiermuth, who comps favorably to a Hunter Henry (two straight top 12 finishes and this a 14 team league) , could be a value. I considered QB but QB was not a need and thought (wrong) that 1 might fall into the 3rd. Stick with BPA.

Fun Fact: My roster also has Hunter Henry
Fun Fact 2: Hunter Henry went 2.02 (#16) in 2016 GEDL

3.03 (#31) - Amari Rodgers

As I do not watch NCAA football in-season, I can admit I was not aware of Amari Rodgers as he was not a devy favorite in the devy leagues I am in. Like I mentioned on another thread it was only a few months ago that I got excited by how deep & versatile this class is, and a guy like Rodgers at 31 is a nice example.

4.03 (#45) - Josh Imatorbhebhe

I ended up with shares of him in all 3 of my pre-draft leagues, and cost-wise this was the least expensive. Admittedly he looks raw in some ways - but apart from having aspects of Dez Bryant to his game - he looks to be very good at dealing with press coverage - something that will serve him well in the NFL.

5.03 (#59) - Tommy Tremble

Just saw today that Daniel Jeremiah has him just outside his top 50 (this includes all positions not just skill) at 52. Also nabbed a share in one of my other pre-draft leagues, both of which have deep enough rosters & taxi squads, to allow me time to watch him develop.

5.07 (#63) - Cornell Powell

Similar to Rodgers in that I was not aware of him previous to my draft research - all I can say is that I honestly am surprised he lasted so long - apart from a reminder how deep this 2021 class is in terms of potential. I actually jumped back into the 2021 draft, trading with an owner who I knew was not very invested in the 2021 class, to ensure I got him, as I wasnt sure he'd make it to 6.03. Am obviously aware he was blocked by Higgins, Ross, Rodgers - but I do think with a little consistency he could become one of the best route runners of the 2021 class.

5.09 (#65) - Jalen Camp

The other pick I acquired with the 5.07 allowed me to take a shot on Camp. Georgia Tech may not have a great reputation for supplying Wide Receivers - but when they hit they hit. The last 2? Calvin Johnson & Demaryius Thomas. Darren Waller also balled at Georgia Tech. This guy though is more in the DK Metcalf mold though.

6.03 (#68) - Stevie Scott

Along with Imatorbhebhe, the other guy I have 3 shares of (so 100% so far). Compares to James Conner. However I think he'll go UDFA - which could be good or bad for situation & opportunity.

Nice write up. You sniped me more than a few times in that draft , I had to change up my strategy on the fly a few times because of it . I really liked the Wallace,Sermon,Powell,Tremble and Rodgers picks.