Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby Anteaters » Sun May 02, 2021 3:00 pm

I'm not too worried about JRob holding back ETN. This isn't the same as Dillon going to GB and being held back by AJones. JRob is a lesser version of Mack, not a comp to AJones. If ETN has the goods, the starting job will be his for the taking.
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12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
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RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun May 02, 2021 3:49 pm

Anteaters wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 3:00 pm I'm not too worried about JRob holding back ETN. This isn't the same as Dillon going to GB and being held back by AJones. JRob is a lesser version of Mack, not a comp to AJones. If ETN has the goods, the starting job will be his for the taking.
There’s probably something to discuss here about how this will affect Etienne’s year-to-year upside vs. his longevity. Obviously having complete control over the backfield and dominating the touches is useful for producing the high-end seasons like what we’ve recently seen from CMC, Barkley, Gurley, etc.

Having said that, that number of touches also doesn’t appear to be super sustainable. Playing on the same roster as Robinson, who is suddenly one of the most capable #2 backs on any roster, makes one of those 400 point outbursts less likely, but it also might keep Etienne healthy.

Or he could tear his ACL in camp because dynasty is stupid. Tough to say.
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat May 01, 2021 2:07 pm Mike, I’d like to respectfully comment on whether or not Pittsburgh is a “dream” landing spot and continue the discussion about whether or not this is the best RB draft class you’ve ever seen, but I also don’t want to receive another PM from you with a “formal warning” and a threat to ban me.

I’m asking this sincerely, because I don’t know the answer: Do I have your permission to potentially disagree with you on these subjects?
Mike, I still would like to know if I have permission to discuss these subjects without being banned.
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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby MEuRaH » Sun May 02, 2021 5:01 pm

DJB wrote: Sat May 01, 2021 8:10 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:45 pm He's no longer my 1.01 pick with Harris going to a dream landing spot.
So let me get this straight.

You call Etienne the best RB prospect since Barkley and now suddenly you jump off the bandwagon because of landing spot?

I guess you never believed he was a transcendent player in the first place man because landing spot shouldn't matter.
I didn't jump off the band wagon, I'm still firmly on it. I made Harris my top pick because of where he landed. I also called Harris the best prospect since Barkley btw (link). And I graded both Harris and Etienne the exact same grade and rank in my DLF article.

It's just that everyone was giving full attention to Harris and not enough to Etienne. I think the ceiling on Etienne is still higher, but I love that Harris landing spot.

The only league that I have a top pick of any kind is a contract league with a roster that's built to win now. I need to draft the guy that I think will have the best 2021 season, which is Harris.

I'm sad.
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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby dustyroads » Mon May 03, 2021 11:10 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Sat May 01, 2021 5:52 am
Dynos wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:40 pmYou are not scared with big ben almost done and the OL that need some love?
lol, that line is definitely something to be concerned about. They did use a day two pick on a guard. I'm hoping to see another pick or two used on that line, and then I'll feel better about Harris.

I'm not too concerned with Ben. He's on the older side but I think he'll be around for another 3-4 years minimum, and that'll be during Najee's prime seasons.
Steelers fan, so I'm also trying to cope with them not taking o-line in the 1st or 2nd like I had wanted; however the Freiermuth pick can be considered a line improvement depending how the rotation with Ebron works. He's a very soild blocker and did well lining up as Y. We don't traditionally run a lot of 12 personnel, but if our line stays weak into the season, Freiermuth at least opens the door to that as a possibility as well.

On that note, I moved Freirmuth up my ranks as well. With so many bad landing spots among players I was targeting in the 3rd round of rookie drafts, I wouldn't mind the upside of TE in the Steelers offense. Ebron will be out in 2022, so Freiermuth could easily be starting in 2023, if not outright winning the starting spot before then.

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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue May 04, 2021 5:32 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Sat May 01, 2021 5:52 am
??

Ice never said anything and I don't think I responded in jest either. I read my quoted reply twice and I don't see what you're referring to.

The RB class doesn't have the high end studs like other classes have, but it is extremely deep in RBBC and PPR talent. Day three is going to be the best day for RBs in dynasty history imo. I have millions of needs at RB and I traded back to the 2nd and 3rd rounds because of how deep this class is. I have 6 picks in the third round in a league in which I have just two RBs. I think I can get a few solid RBs that late. I'm more confident that I can get RB depth in this draft than in any other draft.

As for ETN, I love the landing spot if JRob wasn't there. I think the Jags might need to trade him while he still has value, but the draft needs to end before that can happen. James Robinson set an NFL record last year with over 1400 combined yards on a bad offense. He has value now if they choose to trade him, which they should imo.

Harris has always been my 1B to ETN's 1A. I like the landing spot better for Harris, so that might push him up to equal or greater than ETN. The Jags offense is a mystery right now. Who knows how that's going to play out.
Dynos wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:40 pmYou are not scared with big ben almost done and the OL that need some love?
lol, that line is definitely something to be concerned about. They did use a day two pick on a guard. I'm hoping to see another pick or two used on that line, and then I'll feel better about Harris.

I'm not too concerned with Ben. He's on the older side but I think he'll be around for another 3-4 years minimum, and that'll be during Najee's prime seasons.
I’ve restrained myself but I’ve reread this post a few times and just can’t get past the convoluted logic.

This RB class is awful on the whole. Just 4 RBs went in the first 3 rounds. Does anyone think that the NFL is so saturated with RB talent across the league that they just let more talented players fall? I’d opine that the only reason that Harris and Entienne went late in Rd 1 is because there is such a dearth of talent at the position this year that the law of supply and demand inflated their values, maybe significantly. Talent always has a market in the NFL, and to think that the entire league just let an entire group of players fall because there was so much talent in that group that they could afford to do so borders on being outright silly.

And to think that JAX should just casually trade off Robinson because he has such value right now seems to be right up there in level of being convoluted. How high of a price do you think other NFL teams would pay for Robinson? The NFL doesn’t view players like FFers do - if a NFL team is going to give up draft picks or currently rostered players, they are going to do so because they see something there that their team currently does not have and that they cannot acquire otherwise such as in free agency, and that the player in question fits their system so perfectly. I don’t see such a huge gap in talent that another NFL team is going to expend resources to go out and acquire Robinson. And that’s before the question is answered at the NFL level whether Etienne can be a complete 3 down RB, which I’d propose is still a clouded issue. Robinson could take on a decent share of touches, especially rushes between the tackles and in short yardage/goal line situations. That dilutes Etienne’s ability to run up FF pts.

And Harris going to PIT should cause FFers to reconsider his value, especially given his age. PIT has a horrendous O line when it comes to run blocking - arguably the worst in the league and it’s not going to be completely reinvented overnight. Their big name FA signing was a guy who TB let go after one year, and he took less money this year to sign with PIT than TB paid him last year. I like the C they drafted in Rd 3 from Illinois and see him as a decade long fixture there, but the A&M OT they drafted in the 4th has his strength in pass blocking and he lacks significant aggression and drive in his run blocking. Harris is going to have to prove he can run through very tight spaces and create for himself across the entire line, or he is going to surrender touches. And right now his ability to do that at the NFL level is a complete unknown. Sure, he’s going to get plenty of opportunity from the onset, but how much (given PIT was near the bottom of the league in rushing attempts and last in the league in rushing yds) if he struggles and what will he do with it? 300 touches like some are speculating seems awfully high for this team and the way they are built right now, with Ben’s skills and health seemingly deteriorating and not much at all behind him at QB.

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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby Ice » Tue May 04, 2021 6:41 am

I get many wanting to believe this class is talent poor but there isn't really evidence to support those blanket statements at this time. It may be bad but we simply won't know for a while if it's really good or not. No doubt some classes will have more elite talent at the top but that is different than is the class good or even deep as a class overall. The players this class seem to look pretty good on tape so it wouldn't surprise to see a lot of the later selections actually stick. Players like Carter and Hubbard should easily make the team and play; In fact I think all 4 RB's selected in round 4 will make the roster

The reality is the position isn't valued high any longer. That said, in the last 6 drafts at least 1 RB was picked in round 1. 2017, 2018, 2021 were the only times at least 2 were taken. (2018 3).

In the last 6 drafts 3 times only 1 RB was picked in round 2.
In the last 6 drafts only twice were 4 RB picks in round 3 verses only 1 RB picked that round twice.

None of this really goes to the strength or weakness of RB's individually but it does go to team need and strength of the far more important positions given the numbers needed.

The RB position is simply devalued in the spread speed based offenses today. Teams will draft speed for ST and simply will not carry many RBs on there roster. My guess is 4 is the average which is the lowest of any position outside QB. Teams as an example will carry 10 DB's. There will be some saturation at RB due to roster size no doubt.

I tend to focus more at the 1st 2 rounds when looking at RB strength given the small roster size given so many in round 3 or later are more filler for ST and back up caliber RB's.

In the last 6 drafts.
10 round 1 selections, 14 round 2 selections, 15 round 3 selections (plus 2 compensatory round 3 picks)

Total picks rounds 1 & 2

2016 2
2017 4
2018 7
2019 2
2020 6
2021 3
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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby MEuRaH » Tue May 04, 2021 7:05 am

There's definitely a huge disconnect between the top talent and the PPR/COP guys I covet.

There's only 3 first round RBs worth drafting, and maybe only 1-2 guys in the second round.

I have 12 RBs on my list for the third and fourth rounds, which is better than I ever had, and they are all PPR-type guys that are needed for all of my leagues. I'm going to be able to fill up my rosters nicely with this group.

If you have 12 team leagues, thin rosters and lineups, this draft is definitely one of the bad ones for RB imo.

If most of your leagues are like mine (32 teams or more, ppr, deep benches) it's pretty good in the later rounds at RB.

But if you absolutely need a RB and you have a pick in the 1.06 to 1.12 range, no matter the league type you are in, you will be left hanging. Take the WR and trade your way to success, I guess.
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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue May 04, 2021 7:36 am

Ice wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 6:41 am I get many wanting to believe this class is talent poor but there isn't really evidence to support those blanket statements at this time. It may be bad but we simply won't know for a while if it's really good or not. No doubt some classes will have more elite talent at the top but that is different than is the class good or even deep as a class overall. The players this class seem to look pretty good on tape so it wouldn't surprise to see a lot of the later selections actually stick. Players like Carter and Hubbard should easily make the team and play; In fact I think all 4 RB's selected in round 4 will make the roster

The reality is the position isn't valued high any longer. That said, in the last 6 drafts at least 1 RB was picked in round 1. 2017, 2018, 2021 were the only times at least 2 were taken. (2018 3).

In the last 6 drafts 3 times only 1 RB was picked in round 2.
In the last 6 drafts only twice were 4 RB picks in round 3 verses only 1 RB picked that round twice.

None of this really goes to the strength or weakness of RB's individually but it does go to team need and strength of the far more important positions given the numbers needed.

The RB position is simply devalued in the spread speed based offenses today. Teams will draft speed for ST and simply will not carry many RBs on there roster. My guess is 4 is the average which is the lowest of any position outside QB. Teams as an example will carry 10 DB's. There will be some saturation at RB due to roster size no doubt.

I tend to focus more at the 1st 2 rounds when looking at RB strength given the small roster size given so many in round 3 or later are more filler for ST and back up caliber RB's.

In the last 6 drafts.
10 round 1 selections, 14 round 2 selections, 15 round 3 selections (plus 2 compensatory round 3 picks)

Total picks rounds 1 & 2

2016 2
2017 4
2018 7
2019 2
2020 6
2021 3
This is a really good post. I agree that teams will only keep 4 RBs on a whole, and there is an additional caveat to that - if you aren’t one of the top 2 RBs on the team, you almost have to play STs as a young guy in order to stick, because if they are even with a vet or even a little ahead and the vet plays well on STs the young guy loses. Of the 4th round picks, Stevenson may avoid STs because he looks to be situated to be Belichek’s new Blount. The other 3 guys look like they are ST capable.

So I agree that all 4 may stick on rosters, but the real question to us is if they are capable of FF impact. Carter looks to be in the best position since the competition in NY looks so bad. Stevenson looks to be a TD dependent low ceiling guy.. Nwangwu and Hubbard have obvious roadblocks in front of them that will require an injury before they have any relevance. I don’t agree with you that Hubbard ought to have FF impact other than an injury to McCaffrey.

To have immediate fantasy relevance, a RB almost has to be one of the top 2 RBs on the team that drafted him. I see that in the top 3 guys. I’m not sure Sermon qualifies - I watch him run and he just looks so slow, plus the RB room is so deep in SF and everyone seems to get an equal shot at earning time. I’ve really got my eyes on Mitchell as a dark horse to carve out touches for himself there. The next 4 RBs in the draft are addressed above. After that, it’s a shot in the dark that any of the remaining RBs rise to any relevance.

The FF community seems to agree. At a position so accustomed to being overdrafted because of how valuable RBs can be, the FF community barely has Sermon going at the end of the 1st and then the remaining RBs don’t start coming onboard until mid 2nd round.

The NFL decision makers and FFers seem to being pretty much seeing the same thing - this is a weak class for RBs. But as you stated earlier, no one knows how the end result will shake out and we may see some surprises when the pads come on and the real hitting starts.

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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue May 04, 2021 7:45 am

This seems like an interesting topic, I think some great points are being made, and I’d like to participate, but, again, I don’t want to be banned for doing so.

I’m asking again Mike, because it’s not clear- can I participate in a discussion in which I might potentially disagree with you without being banned? I don’t want to break the rules, but, frankly, they’re unclear.
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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby jenkins.math » Tue May 04, 2021 7:46 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 5:32 am
And Harris going to PIT should cause FFers to reconsider his value, especially given his age. PIT has a horrendous O line when it comes to run blocking - arguably the worst in the league and it’s not going to be completely reinvented overnight. Their big name FA signing was a guy who TB let go after one year, and he took less money this year to sign with PIT than TB paid him last year. I like the C they drafted in Rd 3 from Illinois and see him as a decade long fixture there, but the A&M OT they drafted in the 4th has his strength in pass blocking and he lacks significant aggression and drive in his run blocking. Harris is going to have to prove he can run through very tight spaces and create for himself across the entire line, or he is going to surrender touches. And right now his ability to do that at the NFL level is a complete unknown. Sure, he’s going to get plenty of opportunity from the onset, but how much (given PIT was near the bottom of the league in rushing attempts and last in the league in rushing yds) if he struggles and what will he do with it? 300 touches like some are speculating seems awfully high for this team and the way they are built right now, with Ben’s skills and health seemingly deteriorating and not much at all behind him at QB.
Who is he going to surrender touches to? Benny Snell? Anthony McFarland? Some RB that gets cut in camp that they decide to bring in? The Steelers have long drafted RBs after round 1 and developed them, refused to pay them a long term big money deal, and just rolled out the next guy. They obviously decided that wasn't working so they invested a first rounder in Najee. Mike Tomlin's entire coaching history is him using one bell cow back and both the owner and coaching staff have come out and said they have to get back to running the ball more for the upcoming season.

The Steelers ran the ball 373 times last year. Lets just assume that jumps to 400 (which would have been 8th fewest in 2020). If Najee gets 70% of those, that is 280 carries right there. Plus you know they want to utilize the backs in the passing game, so 20 receptions isn't out of the question. That's your 300 right there. If they even get to be league average in rush attempts, Najee will easily surpass 300 touches assuming he remains healthy. Unless you suddenly think Tomlin is going to a RBBC.

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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue May 04, 2021 8:00 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 7:45 am This seems like an interesting topic, I think some great points are being made, and I’d like to participate, but, again, I don’t want to be banned for doing so.

I’m asking again Mike, because it’s not clear- can I participate in a discussion in which I might potentially disagree with you without being banned? I don’t want to break the rules, but, frankly, they’re unclear.
It’s not your differing opinion. Hell, I’m as contrarian and passionate and firm in my convictions as anyone on this board. But it’s never personal and I won’t take it there by using personal slurs or attacks, with the exception of in rebuttal when someone else decides to cross that line.

And despite how confident I am in my position, I always always remember how wrong I can be, Just ask me about Montee Ball or Limas Sweed amongst some of my gems. Just present your position without taking it down to gutter and taking a shot at someone for their opinion, and remember that no matter how sure you are that you’re right in FF you can still end up dead wrong.
Last edited by Bronco Billy on Tue May 04, 2021 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby RB6 » Tue May 04, 2021 8:29 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 7:45 am This seems like an interesting topic, I think some great points are being made, and I’d like to participate, but, again, I don’t want to be banned for doing so.

I’m asking again Mike, because it’s not clear- can I participate in a discussion in which I might potentially disagree with you without being banned? I don’t want to break the rules, but, frankly, they’re unclear.
Ughhh the passive-aggression on display here.
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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby tresskid84 » Tue May 04, 2021 12:58 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 7:45 am This seems like an interesting topic, I think some great points are being made, and I’d like to participate, but, again, I don’t want to be banned for doing so.

I’m asking again Mike, because it’s not clear- can I participate in a discussion in which I might potentially disagree with you without being banned? I don’t want to break the rules, but, frankly, they’re unclear.
I have refrained from commenting on this the several times you've posted it, because its not my place to moderate the forums and not my battle . . . but dude, move on. You may not have outright called him anything derogatory, but you were completely disrespectful and you were not just simply disagreeing with him. He did you the curtesy of giving you a warning, IN PRIVATE, allowing you to continue contributing to the forums, and you reacted by continuously, publicly, posting more disrespectful things like the post above. He has clearly given you the opportunity to continue in this discussion in a respectful, constructive manner because you are not banned (and he is rightfully ignoring your posts). So, either join the debate in a healthy manner, or do us a favor and just move on to the many other topics on the forum. If you don't know how to join the discussion/debate in a respectful manner, then that isn't a Mike problem, that's a you problem.


And I apologize to the group for adding another post that is not on topic, this will be my only such post.
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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby Sriracha » Wed May 05, 2021 12:20 pm

ETN and Harris are both very close for me, but I give the edge to ETN based on upside.

Harris not testing for me was a red flag and feeds my suspicions that he's just not overly athletic. He does a lot with the athleticism he does have, though and has a workhorse build and skillset so I still covet him highly...

But ETN has the athleticism and skillset that is too tantalizing for me to pass up.

I do not agree that PIT is the better landing spot, at all. Their O-line is old and their best one retired this off-season. Big Ben is on his last legs and we have no idea who's going to take over after he leaves.

ETN is on an ascending jAX team that is locked into at least an above average QB heading his franchise for the next 6+ years (ignoring the possibility of extremely unfortunate events happening).

I don't think JRob is the kind of talent that is going to demand touches from a talent like ETN. He had a phenomenal fantasy rookie season... but his efficiency numbers were likely buoyed by the team running him in passing situations (on route to earning their #1 overall pick). The statics would agree with this narrative; Robinson faced 6.7 average defenders in the box (#41 in the NFL) and faced the 23rd lightest front rate in the NFL where he averaged 5.8 ypc vs 3.9 vs base fronts and 2.4 vs stacked fronts.

He quite possibly could have had a far less stellar season fantasy season if JAX didn't find themselves behind multiple scores in most of their games.

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Re: Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Wed May 05, 2021 3:55 pm

Alright so-

1. Respectfully, this is not a good or deep RB class. Only 4 RBs on days 1-2 I believe ties an all-time low. I think only 18 were drafted, which is lower than most classes. It’s just not a particularly exciting group. Landing spots were brutal on the day 3 guys- Hubbard behind McCaffery, Hill buried in GB, Gainwell on a team with a bunch of capable pass catchers and a QB more liable to take off than dump it to the RB. Mercifully Williams and Sermon ended up in very good spots.

2. The idea that Pittsburgh is a “dream” landing spot for Harris (or an RB) should be rethought. Pittsburgh has one of the worst lines in the league, and tons of competition for short-intermediate targets. This is only a good spot because of how Tomlin’s OCs have historically utilized lead RBs, but Matt Canada is a new OC. (I don’t think heavily using the RB1 is going to change after the team invested a first round pick, though.) There will also be no continuity on this line, which is concerning. If you preferred Etienne, I wouldn’t drop him below Harris based on the faulty premise that Pittsburgh is a great spot.

3. This is purely speculation, but Etienne doesn’t strike me as a guy with a bunch of truthers who will refuse to “sell low.” If he struggles to get significant touches, I think you might have a buy window around week 5-6.
COOGAN IS A CHEATER AND A THIEF


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