Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

[Ice]

OK. I guess we have different ideas of what breaking tackles is. Forced missed tackles more often than not are juking defenders out vs breaking through tackles. That's how Monty got such a high rating. It also seems to be a fairly subjective stat as I recall Monty seemed to get credit for some in college that were far from forced missed tackles. To each their own, I guess, but I am in the camp that Etienne is not much of a between the tackles runner unless the hole is huge. Forced missed tackles and yards after contact doesn't sway my opinion on that.

Yards after contact is literally the yards generated after first contact with a defender.

I was referring more to the forced missed tackle "stat" that you left out. I acknowledge YAC is yards after first contact, but even that can be misleading. If an RB breaks one weak arm tackle behind the line of scrimmage then runs 80 yards untouched they get over 80 yds of YAC. But does that show they are a good between the tackles runner? or even a good tackle-breaker? I wouldn't go there. Etienne is an explosive open field runner with burst and speed, which lends itself to a lot of long runs, especially in that offense. He should have a good to great YAC even if he isn't good at tackle breaking.

Based on your definitions it sounds like he is great at both!

Almost half of his total yards in college, which is very impressive, came after contact. The defense makes contact with the ball carrier for only one reason regardless of how one spins it. Etienne's willingness to fight is actually impressive on tape to me which is one reason I rate him so high personally.

The stats simply show that Etienne doesn't struggle breaking tackles; They show the opposite which makes me question the narrative I am seeing out there.

No issues if someone likes Harris better. There is a lot to like about him as well but it seems many are looking for reasons that do not show up on tape to differentiate two very different style of RB's. I like both backs a lot. My bottom line though is Etienne brings more to the party longer term so I rate him higher.

[Sriracha]

Yards after contact is literally the yards generated after first contact with a defender.

I was referring more to the forced missed tackle "stat" that you left out. I acknowledge YAC is yards after first contact, but even that can be misleading. If an RB breaks one weak arm tackle behind the line of scrimmage then runs 80 yards untouched they get over 80 yds of YAC. But does that show they are a good between the tackles runner? or even a good tackle-breaker? I wouldn't go there. Etienne is an explosive open field runner with burst and speed, which lends itself to a lot of long runs, especially in that offense. He should have a good to great YAC even if he isn't good at tackle breaking.

Ok, assuming all of this is true, that just means one broken tackle is worth more to him than several broken tackles by a less explosive RB.

This is akin to the "if you take out all of this RBs big runs, he sucks" narrative I hear from time to time... It just doesn't make sense. Big plays are incredibly important to an offense -- and they statistically dramatically increase the likelihood the drives they occur on lead to points on the scoreboard. If a RB has shown a penchant for generating the big play.. that's a good thing no matter how you slice it.

[mgscott]

Yards after contact is literally the yards generated after first contact with a defender.

I was referring more to the forced missed tackle "stat" that you left out. I acknowledge YAC is yards after first contact, but even that can be misleading. If an RB breaks one weak arm tackle behind the line of scrimmage then runs 80 yards untouched they get over 80 yds of YAC. But does that show they are a good between the tackles runner? or even a good tackle-breaker? I wouldn't go there. Etienne is an explosive open field runner with burst and speed, which lends itself to a lot of long runs, especially in that offense. He should have a good to great YAC even if he isn't good at tackle breaking.

Ok, assuming all of this is true, that just means one broken tackle is worth more to him than several broken tackles by a less explosive RB.

This is akin to the "if you take out all of this RBs big runs, he sucks" narrative I hear from time to time... It just doesn't make sense. Big plays are incredibly important to an offense -- and they statistically dramatically increase the likelihood the drives they occur on lead to points on the scoreboard. If a RB has shown a penchant for generating the big play.. that's a good thing no matter how you slice it.

No doubt. Not saying what he does isn't valuable and could translate to the NFL. I wouldn't expect nearly as many long runs in the NFL as he had in college. Taylor didn't have nearly the amount of long runs in INDY as he had a WISC. He was much more "taylored" as a multiple carry/touch RB that can do it all. ETN is not that back and it will be interesting to see if he can become a good/great fantasy RB or a volatile flex with high week to week variability depending on whether he can break a long run.

We'll see.

[Ice]

I was referring more to the forced missed tackle "stat" that you left out. I acknowledge YAC is yards after first contact, but even that can be misleading. If an RB breaks one weak arm tackle behind the line of scrimmage then runs 80 yards untouched they get over 80 yds of YAC. But does that show they are a good between the tackles runner? or even a good tackle-breaker? I wouldn't go there. Etienne is an explosive open field runner with burst and speed, which lends itself to a lot of long runs, especially in that offense. He should have a good to great YAC even if he isn't good at tackle breaking.

Ok, assuming all of this is true, that just means one broken tackle is worth more to him than several broken tackles by a less explosive RB.

This is akin to the "if you take out all of this RBs big runs, he sucks" narrative I hear from time to time... It just doesn't make sense. Big plays are incredibly important to an offense -- and they statistically dramatically increase the likelihood the drives they occur on lead to points on the scoreboard. If a RB has shown a penchant for generating the big play.. that's a good thing no matter how you slice it.

No doubt. Not saying what he does isn't valuable and could translate to the NFL. I wouldn't expect nearly as many long runs in the NFL as he had in college. Taylor didn't have nearly the amount of long runs in INDY as he had a WISC. He was much more "taylored" as a multiple carry/touch RB that can do it all. ETN is not that back and it will be interesting to see if he can become a good/great fantasy RB or a volatile flex with high week to week variability depending on whether he can break a long run.

We'll see.

But scheme wise Etienne will be used more like a Kamara type. Harris will be used more like the god of all RB's that ever walked on this planet according to how he sneaks into every thread on this site. What you're really saying is you like the heavier bruiser type RB's.

BTW take out 3 games and ..........

[Sriracha]

I was referring more to the forced missed tackle "stat" that you left out. I acknowledge YAC is yards after first contact, but even that can be misleading. If an RB breaks one weak arm tackle behind the line of scrimmage then runs 80 yards untouched they get over 80 yds of YAC. But does that show they are a good between the tackles runner? or even a good tackle-breaker? I wouldn't go there. Etienne is an explosive open field runner with burst and speed, which lends itself to a lot of long runs, especially in that offense. He should have a good to great YAC even if he isn't good at tackle breaking.

Ok, assuming all of this is true, that just means one broken tackle is worth more to him than several broken tackles by a less explosive RB.

This is akin to the "if you take out all of this RBs big runs, he sucks" narrative I hear from time to time... It just doesn't make sense. Big plays are incredibly important to an offense -- and they statistically dramatically increase the likelihood the drives they occur on lead to points on the scoreboard. If a RB has shown a penchant for generating the big play.. that's a good thing no matter how you slice it.

No doubt. Not saying what he does isn't valuable and could translate to the NFL. I wouldn't expect nearly as many long runs in the NFL as he had in college. Taylor didn't have nearly the amount of long runs in INDY as he had a WISC. He was much more "taylored" as a multiple carry/touch RB that can do it all. ETN is not that back and it will be interesting to see if he can become a good/great fantasy RB or a volatile flex with high week to week variability depending on whether he can break a long run.

We'll see.

I believe his receiving floor will mitigate a lot of his weekly volatility risk

[mgscott]

Ok, assuming all of this is true, that just means one broken tackle is worth more to him than several broken tackles by a less explosive RB.

This is akin to the "if you take out all of this RBs big runs, he sucks" narrative I hear from time to time... It just doesn't make sense. Big plays are incredibly important to an offense -- and they statistically dramatically increase the likelihood the drives they occur on lead to points on the scoreboard. If a RB has shown a penchant for generating the big play.. that's a good thing no matter how you slice it.

No doubt. Not saying what he does isn't valuable and could translate to the NFL. I wouldn't expect nearly as many long runs in the NFL as he had in college. Taylor didn't have nearly the amount of long runs in INDY as he had a WISC. He was much more "taylored" as a multiple carry/touch RB that can do it all. ETN is not that back and it will be interesting to see if he can become a good/great fantasy RB or a volatile flex with high week to week variability depending on whether he can break a long run.

We'll see.

But scheme wise Etienne will be used more like a Kamara type. Harris will be used more like the god of all RB's that ever walked on this planet according to how he sneaks into every thread on this site. What you're really saying is you like the heavier bruiser type RB's.

BTW take out 3 games and ..........

I do prefer RBs that can do it all: run well both outside and between the tackles, break tackles, make strong cuts, catch the ball. I don't see all of that in ETN. He could turn out to produce like Kamara, but so could have all the other FF RB projects after him that weren't 3 down type backs but showed speed/receiving skills. I could see him being FF great, but wouldn't bet on it. Even if he is used like Kamara. Although I think they are different types of backs, so not really fair to compare them for future production.

[mgscott]

Ok, assuming all of this is true, that just means one broken tackle is worth more to him than several broken tackles by a less explosive RB.

This is akin to the "if you take out all of this RBs big runs, he sucks" narrative I hear from time to time... It just doesn't make sense. Big plays are incredibly important to an offense -- and they statistically dramatically increase the likelihood the drives they occur on lead to points on the scoreboard. If a RB has shown a penchant for generating the big play.. that's a good thing no matter how you slice it.

No doubt. Not saying what he does isn't valuable and could translate to the NFL. I wouldn't expect nearly as many long runs in the NFL as he had in college. Taylor didn't have nearly the amount of long runs in INDY as he had a WISC. He was much more "taylored" as a multiple carry/touch RB that can do it all. ETN is not that back and it will be interesting to see if he can become a good/great fantasy RB or a volatile flex with high week to week variability depending on whether he can break a long run.

We'll see.

I believe his receiving floor will mitigate a lot of his weekly volatility risk

Maybe. But there are a lot of receiving backs out there that provide some sort of floor, but aren't the type of FF backs you want to draft early 1st round.

[Ice]

@ mgscott

No worries, I provided you the information you requested and hadn't seen which shows his effectiveness in a very large sample size. The bottom line in fantasy is we will all gravitate to players on an annual basis which is what makes this game go.

My point was the narrative on Etienne is wrong and to date I haven't seen any information from anyone that quantifies or even substantiates this player cannot break tackles and it is a weakness. The actual data shows the opposite so it's a believe in the numbers or not situation.

We will soon how find out how well these first and second year backs fair in their respective systems.

[Sriracha]

No doubt. Not saying what he does isn't valuable and could translate to the NFL. I wouldn't expect nearly as many long runs in the NFL as he had in college. Taylor didn't have nearly the amount of long runs in INDY as he had a WISC. He was much more "taylored" as a multiple carry/touch RB that can do it all. ETN is not that back and it will be interesting to see if he can become a good/great fantasy RB or a volatile flex with high week to week variability depending on whether he can break a long run.

We'll see.

While some drop off is expected as you jump from college to the pros; JT's 6% break away run rate was #9 in the NFL despite a very slow start to his rookie season.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

For me it’s not an issue of breaking tackles, it’s just decisiveness and authority between the tackles that was a little lacking for me. That’s why I liked Akers so much is he seemed to maximize every run whereas etienne doesn’t know when to give up and fall forward for 3 yards. On the flip side, it does create some spectacular plays as well. But in any event, that is something that can 100% be coached up, we saw DJ learn how to run between the tackles and stop going for the home run on every play as a rookie. I’ve seen etienne run between the tackles fine when he wants to, I think as I said before the issue is he’s looking for the home run maybe a bit too much

[alewilliam789]

Idk about you guys, but he reminds me of Melvin Gordon more than Alvin Kamara. I see why the comparison is made (because of the way he is projected to be used), but Kamara’s balance is elite and that’s mostly due to serious lower body explosiveness that Etienne doesn’t have (95th percentile for Kamara compared to 65th percentile for Etienne). If you look at both Melvin Gordon’s and Etienne’s Player Profiler pages too they are actually pretty similar besides an ungodly DR for MG3 because he was at Wisconsin

[murphysxm]

But scheme wise Etienne will be used more like a Kamara type.

I guess I am not going to trust coach speak in the off season as part of my analysis of a player. Is it possible? sure. Is it a given? nope

[mgscott]

But scheme wise Etienne will be used more like a Kamara type.

I guess I am not going to trust coach speak in the off season as part of my analysis of a player. Is it possible? sure. Is it a given? nope

Even if he's used that way, no guarantee he will have the same results. Several teams use RB's like Kamara and he and ETN are different types of players with different strengths and in different offenses.

[OhCruelestRanter]

There’s nearly a whole page in here on whether Etienne is good or bad because he either “slips tackles” or “jukes guys out.”

This is meaningless nonsense.

On the other hand: Etienne has requisite NFL athleticism and size. Etienne was successful in college. Etienne has proven to be a capable pass catcher. Etienne was taken in the first round of the NFL draft. Etienne’s team projects to have a bad defense, indicating that they’ll have to throw a lot, and the only tangible blurb that they’ve released is about how they’re utilizing him in the passing game.

All of the meaningful data that we have suggests that this guy will be good. There’s an argument to be hard about his short term upside- a healthy Robinson and Hyde makes a top 6 season pretty unlikely when you think about the number of guys across the league currently poised to get huge opportunity shares- but that’s wholly different and a more valuable discussion than whether or not he slips or jukes.

[cantguardjake]

He had 1600+ rushing yards as a sophomore in the ACC, 2000+ scrimmage yards as a junior.

He caught 50+ balls as a senior which rarely happens at the college level for a RB.

He ran a 4.45 at 215 pounds with first round capital, people really are overthinking this lol