Opinion: Travis Etienne is the best RB prospect since Barkley

[Pullo Vision]

If he was there the Jags were taking Toney. So they have a pretty clear vision of what they want to do. Not sure how it's wasting their pick if they had a plan on what kind of player they wanted to fit the offense.

Because there are owners that are very dug in on James Robinson

I’m pretty sure that’s inaccurate. I see it as some not understanding what kind of offense Meyer has had great success in running in the past, and as Etienne supporters who believe the RB position is binary - that the position can only be manned by Etienne or Robinson and that because of draft capital that makes Robinson the odd man out. The Robinson owners that I have seen posting for the most part seem to understand that there can be room for 2 RBs in an offense.

Same point but another angle- people see Robinson as a non-stud who got by on volume in 2020, Give those same touches to a superior athlete at RB with 1st round capital and he can be so much more productive.

The problem is that view is very zero-sum and ignores the possibility there'll be enough touches shared between them for both to be productive, even if neither is elite and the Robin between the two is more of a flex value.

Predraft, Etienne looked more like a committee back (where you want to get him touches to harness that speed) than a lead or primary back. Post draft, he landed with a backfield partner that can complement him, with a coaching staff indicating that's what they'll do. If Jacksonville had taken, say, Harris, then it'd be a completely different discussion.

I bet you that Etienne owners are more dug in on him and dismissive of JRob than the other say around.

[Bronco Billy]

Same point but another angle- people see Robinson as a non-stud who got by on volume in 2020,

I keep seeing this “got by on volume” position pushed by some repeatedly. Robinson averaged 4.5 ypa on a team whose passing game didn’t strike fear into anyone and whose O-line was questionable. It’s not elite level production but it’s certainly well above adequate, especially given the circumstances. It’s beyond replacement level production and on a team with average or better talent around him would keep the offense ahead of the chains.

[Ice]

Same point but another angle- people see Robinson as a non-stud who got by on volume in 2020,

I keep seeing this “got by on volume” position pushed by some repeatedly. Robinson averaged 4.5 ypa on a team whose passing game didn’t strike fear into anyone and whose O-line was questionable. It’s not elite level production but it’s certainly well above adequate, especially given the circumstances. It’s beyond replacement level production and on a team with average or better talent around him would keep the offense ahead of the chains.

The real problem is last year Jacksonville ranked 32'nd in rushing attempts and 7th in passing attempts. Based on the gross stats my guess is teams were defending the pass since the Jags were always behind. This should have bolstered his YPC numbers facing fewer in the box. In addition, Jacksonville didn't have many options at RB last season. Robinson to his credit did play well.

That said, this team was so bad they won the 1st draft pick and blew it up. They now have a new coach, a generational prospect at QB and are in massive rebuild mode.

Trying to project anything about Robinson based on last year is a difficult exercise but at least early I would expect defenses to load the box, blitz like crazy, and force Lawrence to beat them in the air under pressure. This doesn't project very well for Robinson.

If there is any good news it's that the Jags ran under 1000 plays last season so if they can play ball control with some balance they could add 80 or so more plays plus the extra game which could help in his touch department.

Robinson is a player with high fantasy risk.

[captain howdy]

james robinson and travis etienne compliment each other.

Robinson is well above average strength and agility. He also plays tough. He sticks his nose in there on pass blocks. On Shenaults first td James Robinson had a great block to give them time.

But, Jrob does not have breakaway speed. It wont happen for him. I live 30 miles from ISU, and JROB's game isnt that of a burner. But hes strong and steady and has a good amount of wiggle.

Etienne is a burner but I'd need to be shown that he can play as strong as jrob. I didnt see it in his college games. Hes a great player. I think hes better than Jrob, just to be clear and frank.

I imagine they'll be used in different ways. Both are capable pass catchers. I am interested in what the jags can do with them.

I dont understand why all the consternation. I, too ,would prefer it for my fantasy team if Jrob wasnt now crowded with what is likely a better player, but I see them coeexisting well enough for spot starts, and also have the potential to be one of the top duos in the NFL.

Additionally,I am a fan of etienne, but its not out of the realm of reason that.

1. he struggles in the transition. he would not be the first great college rb who struggles.
2. he struggles in pass pro. This is probably the most likely. Jrob is frankly stronger, and check the tape if you dont believe me, but he was actually very good in pass pro last year. this could carve out a valuable pass down role for him,
3. or even that jrob improves on his 2020 game and manages to stave off etienne. Not likely. like I said earlier, etienne is a very impressive rb

[Bronco Billy]

Same point but another angle- people see Robinson as a non-stud who got by on volume in 2020,

I keep seeing this “got by on volume” position pushed by some repeatedly. Robinson averaged 4.5 ypa on a team whose passing game didn’t strike fear into anyone and whose O-line was questionable. It’s not elite level production but it’s certainly well above adequate, especially given the circumstances. It’s beyond replacement level production and on a team with average or better talent around him would keep the offense ahead of the chains.

The real problem is last year Jacksonville ranked 32'nd in rushing attempts and 7th in passing attempts. Based on the gross stats my guess is teams were defending the pass since the Jags were always behind.

You definitely are guessing.

Robinson, rushing production vs JAX point differential:

Games decided by 8+ pts: 4.10 ypa
Games decided by 7 pts or less: 4.83 ypa
Games decided by 4 pts or less: 4.96 ypa

That goes directly against the narrative that you’ve created. Not surprisingly, he averaged 15 carries per game in the 8+ games, 20 carries per game in the 7- games, and 21 carries per game in the 4- games. The more JAX ran him, the more competitive they were and the more productive he was.

I’m not sure how a RB like that is just simply dismissed and considered an expendable piece that just gets tossed aside for a shiny new toy that quite possibly doesn’t do the dirty work between the tackles effectively like Robinson does.

I agree with the post above - Robinson and Etienne have very complementary skills and abilities (of course that is if Etienne proves what Robinson already has, that he can play and succeed at the NFL level).

[Ruggenater]

I keep seeing this “got by on volume” position pushed by some repeatedly. Robinson averaged 4.5 ypa on a team whose passing game didn’t strike fear into anyone and whose O-line was questionable. It’s not elite level production but it’s certainly well above adequate, especially given the circumstances. It’s beyond replacement level production and on a team with average or better talent around him would keep the offense ahead of the chains.

The real problem is last year Jacksonville ranked 32'nd in rushing attempts and 7th in passing attempts. Based on the gross stats my guess is teams were defending the pass since the Jags were always behind.

You definitely are guessing.

Robinson, rushing production vs JAX point differential:

Games decided by 8+ pts: 4.10 ypa
Games decided by 7 pts or less: 4.83 ypa
Games decided by 4 pts or less: 4.96 ypa

That goes directly against the narrative that you’ve created. Not surprisingly, he averaged 15 carries per game in the 8+ games, 20 carries per game in the 7- games, and 21 carries per game in the 4- games. The more JAX ran him, the more competitive they were and the more productive he was.

I’m not sure how a RB like that is just simply dismissed and considered an expendable piece that just gets tossed aside for a shiny new toy that quite possibly doesn’t do the dirty work between the tackles effectively like Robinson does.

I agree with the post above - Robinson and Etienne have very complementary skills and abilities (of course that is if Etienne proves what Robinson already has, that he can play and succeed at the NFL level).

I don’t think the argument was about point differential. If a team is ranked 32nd in rushing attempts and 7th in passing, then the defense is going to expect a pass more often (and be right about that). With the defense expecting pass, Robinson has more room to run. The percent of stacked boxes (which admittedly is not an objective measure and so you get different numbers everywhere) Robinson faced was well below what most other RBs saw.

[Ice]

I keep seeing this “got by on volume” position pushed by some repeatedly. Robinson averaged 4.5 ypa on a team whose passing game didn’t strike fear into anyone and whose O-line was questionable. It’s not elite level production but it’s certainly well above adequate, especially given the circumstances. It’s beyond replacement level production and on a team with average or better talent around him would keep the offense ahead of the chains.

The real problem is last year Jacksonville ranked 32'nd in rushing attempts and 7th in passing attempts. Based on the gross stats my guess is teams were defending the pass since the Jags were always behind.

You definitely are guessing.

Robinson, rushing production vs JAX point differential:

Games decided by 8+ pts: 4.10 ypa
Games decided by 7 pts or less: 4.83 ypa
Games decided by 4 pts or less: 4.96 ypa

That goes directly against the narrative that you’ve created. Not surprisingly, he averaged 15 carries per game in the 8+ games, 20 carries per game in the 7- games, and 21 carries per game in the 4- games. The more JAX ran him, the more competitive they were and the more productive he was.

I’m not sure how a RB like that is just simply dismissed and considered an expendable piece that just gets tossed aside for a shiny new toy that quite possibly doesn’t do the dirty work between the tackles effectively like Robinson does.

I agree with the post above - Robinson and Etienne have very complementary skills and abilities (of course that is if Etienne proves what Robinson already has, that he can play and succeed at the NFL level).

I was guessing about Box numbers on defense not game scores. Game scores mean nothing to me.

Never said he was expendable but I still would bet he probably showed a decline in efficiency based on defensive scheme play over play given most RB's do.

No escaping the fact that Jacksonville spent a 1st round draft pick to address their backfield so they are looking closely at their scheme and evaluating players accordingly.

They could easily be modeling after the Browns or Saints so I do not think anyone is discounting Robinson except most would rather the PPr back with high draft capital and speed to burn unless one somehow thinks Robinson is close to Chubb or Henry in quality.

[StripesOfKC]

If I had drafted Etienne I would have to be worried right now

I'm big on draft capital but decent chance Urban isn't even back next year coupled with Robinson lapping his on field production (not Etienne's fault but still--Robinson's becoming harder and harder to push aside)

[Jigga94]

If I had drafted Etienne I would have to be worried right now

I'm big on draft capital but decent chance Urban isn't even back next year coupled with Robinson lapping his on field production (not Etienne's fault but still--Robinson's becoming harder and harder to push aside)

I would've been concerned right after the injury. Jrob was solid last year and there was no reason to expect he wouldn't get work after ETN went down.

His injury is the biggest factor. It was always going to keep the door open for Jrob though and this doesn't surprise me

[Major_Loser]

What is the typical prognosis with a Rb Lisfranc? High history of re-injury?

[ArrylT]

In my mind, at least in terms of roles, there is very little difference between James Robinson & Jamaal Williams - very similar touch counts & very similar target counts. It seems quite plausible that had Etienne remained healthy he'd possibly be putting up similar (albeit slightly lesser) numbers as D'Andre Swift.

We're seeing more and more of this and less and less of the full 3 down bell cow.

Kamara and Ingram/Murray
Swift & Jamaal Williams
Gibson and McKisic
Chubb & Hunt
Patterson & Davis
Connor & Edmonds
Elliott & Pollard
Gordon & Williams
Singletary & Moss

Jones & Dillon have trended that way for the past 3 games

2 guys - one getting more rushing touches and the other getting more receiving touches - or 2 RBs getting double digit touches - who is more valuable is going to be game script dependent and the role %.

We are likely witnessing the start of another paradigm shift in the NFL brought on by multiple factors including the increase of college concepts brought into the NFL, more passing volume, longer seasons, more guaranteed contracts, covid & so forth.

Backfields are becoming more 50/50 or 60/40 than the 70/30, 80/20 of the past. We've already seen the decline of the 300 touch back (only 1 a year for the past 5 years and same trend for 2021) - soon dont be surprised if most backs are lucky to hit 250 but with more efficient volume (think Tyler Locketts of the RB world)

15 carries is the new 20 which was the old 25. Instead it is more 12-20 efficient touches.

The owners that are able to adapt and accept these changes will be the successful ones in dynasty while those that stick to the antiquated ideas that an alpha WR has to be 6'5 230 or an RB1 has to be a 3 down bell-cow will end up being the dinosaurs much like the old guard of coaches that refuse to change their schemes.

Marquise Brown
Rondale Moore
Travis Etienne perhaps
D'Andre Swift
Austin Ekeler
Kyle Pitts
Kadarius Toney
Cordarelle Patterson

Just a partial list of elite weapons whose skills defy the position they are labelled at.

I have no doubt that there was a cohort of owners who couldnt accept Randy Moss when he changed the game. Well it is perhaps changing again and those that are paying attention and open to adjusting will likely be the benefactors.

It is more and more about having the right talent in the right role / situation at the right time and less about one specific player being able to demand a constant high volume. There will always be a few super elite fantasy options (ie elite talent in elite offense getting elite volume like Brady, Kelce, D. Henry, Adams) but more and more we could very well be witnessing a change to the way fantasy success will occur.

Even at the QB position possibly. It isnt just Winston who has a low passing volume but high TD rate. 7 QBs with 10+ TDs are not in the top 15 of passing attempts. 4 arent even in the top 20.

Or this could just be early season limited data - but when in conjunction with 2020 - and the rise of the "konami code" at QB ... I am not so sure. I think we're on the verge of a paradigm shift or perhaps already in one. Lots of RBBC, increased RPO & designed QB runs, multiple WR or TE as 1a/1b splitting targets & QBs with lower but more efficient TD.

The QB/RB/WR model (think Aikman, Irvin & Emmitt) is becoming the as many weapons as you can get and scheme them as best you can model (thank Belichick).

Oh and yeah back to Etienne - assuming he can recover fully from his injury I dont see this changing anything so long as he can still earn that 1b role to a 1a. Because he may or may not fit the conventional RB mold but he sure as hell has the talent to fit into the new paradigm.

[Orenthal Shames]

In my mind, at least in terms of roles, there is very little difference between James Robinson & Jamaal Williams - very similar touch counts & very similar target counts. It seems quite plausible that had Etienne remained healthy he'd possibly be putting up similar (albeit slightly lesser) numbers as D'Andre Swift.

Came to say exactly this

[FantasyFreak]

In my mind, at least in terms of roles, there is very little difference between James Robinson & Jamaal Williams - very similar touch counts & very similar target counts. It seems quite plausible that had Etienne remained healthy he'd possibly be putting up similar (albeit slightly lesser) numbers as D'Andre Swift.

Came to say exactly this

Yeah, although I'd remove the word "slightly". I have a hard time believing ETN would be in the vicinity of a top 2 RB in his rookie year. I also think there is a difference between Robinson and Williams because Robinson has been a lead back since the second he entered the league, and has put up top end numbers, while neither can be said about Williams. Touch count, and target count this season is where the comparison ends.

[DJB]

The only thing that the OP got right in the comp to Saquon is that both are injured

[Orenthal Shames]

In my mind, at least in terms of roles, there is very little difference between James Robinson & Jamaal Williams - very similar touch counts & very similar target counts. It seems quite plausible that had Etienne remained healthy he'd possibly be putting up similar (albeit slightly lesser) numbers as D'Andre Swift.

Came to say exactly this

Yeah, although I'd remove the word "slightly". I have a hard time believing ETN would be in the vicinity of a top 2 RB in his rookie year. I also think there is a difference between Robinson and Williams because Robinson has been a lead back since the second he entered the league, and has put up top end numbers, while neither can be said about Williams. Touch count, and target count this season is where the comparison ends.

Agree. I think he can have a solid ppr receiving floor, similar to Swift, Kamara, Ekeler. His comp on PP is Swift as well.