My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

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MEuRaH
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My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby MEuRaH » Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:04 am

With his current ADP, there's no way I'll be selecting him in any of my rookie drafts.

Javonte Williams won't be a full on bust but I wouldn't be shocked to see him selected in the third round, fourth round, or even later in the NFL draft. I'd be a little shocked/disappointed to see him taken in the top 5 of all running backs. I thinking the NFL draft will push him back to where he belongs in all dynasty drafts: late second or third rounder at best.

He lacks talent. He lacks speed. He put up good numbers in the ACC but the NFL is literally two whole notches above that. Williams had a lot of success running outside, but his lack of speed behind the LOS will make him more one-dimensional, which doesn't bode well for his future.

Nope, I'm out on this kid. I think he'll be similar to Jamaal Williams for his career. I don't trust him to be any better than that.

My over-valued for 2020 was Jonathan Taylor, and I said the only thing that could change my mind is if he went to a power system as a backup, which happened so I did indeed change my mind prior to the draft. With Williams that is not the case. I don't care who drafts him or what system he goes to, I will not be joining his fan club.

EDIT: Williams ran with a playing weight of 220-225 during his time at UNC. He obviously played slower than his counterpart Michael Carter. Then during his pro day, Williams weighed in at 212 and ran a 4.56 while Carter ran a 4.54. Did Williams drop weight just to have a better 40 time?

Also, here is the latest startup draft data regarding Williams vs other veteran fantasy players. IMO this is madness. Do people really think Williams has more upside than Aiyuk?
Screen Shot 2021-04-11 at 8.20.35 AM.png
Screen Shot 2021-04-11 at 8.20.35 AM.png (86.52 KiB) Viewed 2336 times
EDIT2: I had to rewatch everything I made notes on and I thought I was wrong. His inside runs are definitely above average, as is his vision and feet. Then I watch him try to take a pitch or a sweep and he constantly gets brought down. He just doesn't have the speed to go outside and his hips never point up field. He's an inside runner with excellent hands. He's not worthy of a mid first pick imo.

EDIT3: I love his inside running. I LOVE it. It's more than above average. It's good to very good. He has a lot of quick moves and enough power to get the job done. Plus he can catch. He's be a starter somewhere, but I don't love his long term outlook (over 4 years).

EDIT4: I watched his film again my opinion of him just went down tbh. He leans into his cuts. He can't even make the simple moves to help make a defender miss. He takes too many hits, especially low ones as players try to take this big man down. He plowed through defenders a lot on film but he won't be able to do that in the NFL. I just can't get on board.

Check out this still image below. It's an option play that appears to be disguised as yet another option play (?? No idea what UNC is doing here). But all Williams has to do is run in the open space and use his blockers, so he elects to keep it, which is a solid choice imo. Look at what he sees and tell me you disagree that he should keep it:

Image

But what happens is utter chaos. He can't outrun the middle linebacker, despite the linebacker being 5 yards away when he originally decides to attack, and running diagonally at Williams while Williams basically runs horizontally to the sideline. There's no way a backer should catch up to him this easily. Williams finally rounds the corner and LEANS into his cut -- another bad sign -- chops his feet uselessly before being tackled easily by the corner.

Image

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:17 am

Let me get comfortable for this one.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:52 am

RB1 confirmed.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:12 am

I like his vision, balance, and ability to break tackles. If used right, he can be successful, like the dreaded David Montgomery.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:18 am

Well here we go again. At least you aren’t hedging like you did last year on Taylor when you called him the most overrated RB in the draft. And like last year, I believe that you are wrong. Williams has a complete 3 down game in all facets of the skills required for NFL RBs and his 40 time has been resolved to a 4.57, which is just fine for a guy with his size and running style. The only thing I see lacking in his game is breakaway speed to pull away in the open.

Needless to say, I’m all in on him and think he’ll be the best RB in this class. You want overrated? You should have picked Entienne. IMO.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby honcho55 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:32 am

Nice.

I’m actually more interested in your arguments for the backs you have ahead of him. Couple guys starting to grow on me, but I still have Williams the clear number 3. I am big on draft capital though, so I will change my tune if you’re right about him dropping to the 5th, for instance
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Sriracha » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:32 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:18 am Well here we go again. At least you aren’t hedging like you did last year on Taylor when you called him the most overrated RB in the draft. And like last year, I believe that you are wrong. Williams has a complete 3 down game in all facets of the skills required for NFL RBs and his 40 time has been resolved to a 4.57, which is just fine for a guy with his size and running style. The only thing I see lacking in his game is breakaway speed to pull away in the open.

Needless to say, I’m all in on him and think he’ll be the best RB in this class. You want overrated? You should have picked Entienne. IMO.
His forty time was “resolved”? I must’ve missed that..

A combine adjusted 40 time of 4.63 puts a damper on his upside

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Kmani6 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:52 pm

As with almost everyone else I have Javonte as a top 3 back in this class and really like him as a prospect in this class.

I also absolutely think he’s being overrated. The most common comparison I see is that people are claiming he’s just like Nick Chubb, which is ridiculous. Nick Chubb is the best or at worst a top 3 runner in the NFL. Javonte is certainly talented, but is nowhere as nuanced as a rusher as Nick Chubb is.
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QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Breece Hall, Swift, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
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TE: Travis Kelce

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QB: Tua
RB: Barkley , Mixon, Javonte, Jacobs, CEH
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:57 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:32 pm
Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:18 am Well here we go again. At least you aren’t hedging like you did last year on Taylor when you called him the most overrated RB in the draft. And like last year, I believe that you are wrong. Williams has a complete 3 down game in all facets of the skills required for NFL RBs and his 40 time has been resolved to a 4.57, which is just fine for a guy with his size and running style. The only thing I see lacking in his game is breakaway speed to pull away in the open.

Needless to say, I’m all in on him and think he’ll be the best RB in this class. You want overrated? You should have picked Entienne. IMO.
His forty time was “resolved”? I must’ve missed that..

A combine adjusted 40 time of 4.63 puts a damper on his upside
40 times have been “normalized” here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... view#gid=0

Williams was a state champion on his 4x100 relay team in high school. I’m fairly confident he has enough speed to be able to succeed at the NFL level. He’s not Taylor, but if he fails it won’t be because he’s too slow, and trying to tag him as too slow to play in the NFL is a false narrative.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 pm

Kmani6 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:52 pm As with almost everyone else I have Javonte as a top 3 back in this class and really like him as a prospect in this class.

I also absolutely think he’s being overrated. The most common comparison I see is that people are claiming he’s just like Nick Chubb, which is ridiculous. Nick Chubb is the best or at worst a top 3 runner in the NFL. Javonte is certainly talented, but is nowhere as nuanced as a rusher as Nick Chubb is.
I haven’t seen the Chubb comp yet. I have seen him comped to Leveon Bell, Kareem Hunt, Frank Gore, and Mark Ingram.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Dynos » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:18 pm

what's your ranking this year?
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Sriracha » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:43 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:57 pm
Sriracha wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:32 pm
Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:18 am Well here we go again. At least you aren’t hedging like you did last year on Taylor when you called him the most overrated RB in the draft. And like last year, I believe that you are wrong. Williams has a complete 3 down game in all facets of the skills required for NFL RBs and his 40 time has been resolved to a 4.57, which is just fine for a guy with his size and running style. The only thing I see lacking in his game is breakaway speed to pull away in the open.

Needless to say, I’m all in on him and think he’ll be the best RB in this class. You want overrated? You should have picked Entienne. IMO.
His forty time was “resolved”? I must’ve missed that..

A combine adjusted 40 time of 4.63 puts a damper on his upside
40 times have been “normalized” here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... view#gid=0

Williams was a state champion on his 4x100 relay team in high school. I’m fairly confident he has enough speed to be able to succeed at the NFL level. He’s not Taylor, but if he fails it won’t be because he’s too slow, and trying to tag him as too slow to play in the NFL is a false narrative.
ETN ran a 4.45 official pro day time... I can’t take that list seriously after it ran with the 4.41 initially reported.

We want these guys to be faster because we’re all starving for RB production... but sometimes there just isnt that much talent at the position in an entire draft class. Weve had entire draft classes of misses before... and the knock on this class prior to the season was the RB depth.

I’m not saying that Javonte can’t have success in the NFL because of his speed... he’s a very physical back with the potential to have a 3 down skill set... but his pro comps right now is basically a less explosive and slower Marion Barber — which is a player you want — but that’s just not where he’s being valued at the moment. We’ve got people so enthused by his running style and highlights that theyre valuing him like Marshawn Lynch who was just a flat out better prospect

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby MEuRaH » Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:17 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:18 am Well here we go again. At least you aren’t hedging like you did last year on Taylor when you called him the most overrated RB in the draft. And like last year, I believe that you are wrong. Williams has a complete 3 down game in all facets of the skills required for NFL RBs and his 40 time has been resolved to a 4.57, which is just fine for a guy with his size and running style. The only thing I see lacking in his game is breakaway speed to pull away in the open.

Needless to say, I’m all in on him and think he’ll be the best RB in this class. You want overrated? You should have picked Entienne. IMO.
I read all the replies, this is my favorite.

I don't think it's a hedge to say that JT needed to go to a power scheme to be successful, which happened so I dropped my claim. I said the same thing about Miles Sanders & zone schemes but nobody brings that one up. I also said that about Penny, who went to Seattle and they tried to make him something he's not, ruining his career imo. I think it's important for RBs to match the system they are in.

I agree with you that Williams does indeed have a complete 3 down game, but it's pedestrian imo. A 40 time of 4.57 is not that impressive for RBs drafted in this era, and his size isn't that big.... huh, I had to look it up just now. Apparently he was 220-225 for much of his time in college, then dropped to 210-215 for his 40 time / pro day. I think that's another reason I don't love him tbh. That means his 40 time might actually be slower under his normal playing weight. Not good. I saw a backup linebacker from a small school run laterally to chase him down. Not very impressive.

Best RB in the 2021 class? That's quite the flag you're planting there. If that happens you will be a hero in my eyes. I wish you good luck! :thumbup:
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby MFundercover » Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:19 pm

I don't think Williams is the slam dunk pick some have made him out to be. I liked what I saw of him but I think he's a landing spot dependent guy. Unless he lands in am ideal situation with good draft capital, I'd rather spend a premium pick on someone like Bateman or Waddle.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby MEuRaH » Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:21 pm

Dynos wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:18 pm what's your ranking this year?
The first installment will be posted in a few days, maybe 4-7 days tbh. We have a lot of writers right now.

I think I only have two first-round rated RBs, and a ton in the second and third. Just a lot of average guys imo. Decent players like Williams, but nothing dominant like Etienne or Harris.
MFundercover wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:19 pm I don't think Williams is the slam dunk pick some have made him out to be. I liked what I saw of him but I think he's a landing spot dependent guy. Unless he lands in am ideal situation with good draft capital, I'd rather spend a premium pick on someone like Bateman or Waddle.
This is fair. Good post!
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