dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:04 am
With his current ADP, there's no way I'll be selecting him in any of my rookie drafts.
Javonte Williams won't be a full on bust but I wouldn't be shocked to see him selected in the third round, fourth round, or even later in the NFL draft. I'd be a little shocked/disappointed to see him taken in the top 5 of all running backs. I thinking the NFL draft will push him back to where he belongs in all dynasty drafts:
late second or third rounder at best.
He lacks talent. He lacks speed. He put up good numbers in the ACC but the NFL is literally two whole notches above that. Williams had a lot of success running outside, but his lack of speed behind the LOS will make him more one-dimensional, which doesn't bode well for his future.
Nope, I'm out on this kid. I think he'll be similar to Jamaal Williams for his career. I don't trust him to be any better than that.
My over-valued for 2020 was Jonathan Taylor, and I said the only thing that could change my mind is if he went to a power system as a backup, which happened so I did indeed change my mind prior to the draft. With Williams that is not the case. I don't care who drafts him or what system he goes to, I will not be joining his fan club.
EDIT: Williams ran with a playing weight of 220-225 during his time at UNC. He obviously played slower than his counterpart Michael Carter. Then during his pro day, Williams weighed in at 212 and ran a 4.56 while Carter ran a 4.54. Did Williams drop weight just to have a better 40 time?
Also, here is the latest startup draft data regarding Williams vs other veteran fantasy players. IMO this is madness. Do people really think Williams has more upside than Aiyuk?
Screen Shot 2021-04-11 at 8.20.35 AM.png
EDIT2: I had to rewatch everything I made notes on and I thought I was wrong. His inside runs are definitely above average, as is his vision and feet. Then I watch him try to take a pitch or a sweep and he constantly gets brought down. He just doesn't have the speed to go outside and his hips never point up field. He's an inside runner with excellent hands. He's not worthy of a mid first pick imo.
EDIT3: I love his inside running. I LOVE it. It's more than above average. It's good to very good. He has a lot of quick moves and enough power to get the job done. Plus he can catch. He's be a starter somewhere, but I don't love his long term outlook (over 4 years).
EDIT4: I watched his film again my opinion of him just went down tbh. He leans into his cuts. He can't even make the simple moves to help make a defender miss. He takes too many hits, especially low ones as players try to take this big man down. He plowed through defenders a lot on film but he won't be able to do that in the NFL. I just can't get on board.
Check out this still image below. It's an option play that appears to be disguised as yet another option play (?? No idea what UNC is doing here). But all Williams has to do is run in the open space and use his blockers, so he elects to keep it, which is a solid choice imo. Look at what he sees and tell me you disagree that he should keep it:
But what happens is utter chaos. He can't outrun the middle linebacker, despite the linebacker being 5 yards away when he originally decides to attack, and running diagonally at Williams while Williams basically runs horizontally to the sideline. There's no way a backer should catch up to him this easily. Williams finally rounds the corner and LEANS into his cut -- another bad sign -- chops his feet uselessly before being tackled easily by the corner.
Agree or Disagree? Please share!