My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:53 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:41 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:22 amJust curious - where did you have Hunt in the 2017 draft? Their running styles and pass catching/route running are very similar and their combine/pro day numbers are almost identical except that Williams might be a slight shade stronger and more explosive. I know I got Hunt in the back end of the 1st round in a 14 team draft that year and thought I lucked into his dropping so far then. Of course, that was a much stronger RB class in 2017 too.
I never made any ratings, but I drafted Hunt and made a rather long comment about how under-rated he is on my D96 league. I took him 11th. How I had him compare to others, I don't know for sure.

I love the Hunt comparison the more and more I watch videos of both. I still don't love the lateral quickness of Williams but most everything else does indeed seem to match.

You're making me hate my original write up Billy haha. Of all the opinions I've read on anything that counters what I wrote, I think yours is one of the most solid of all time. This is an excellent comparison, and you're definitely right about a lot of the similarities.

Seriously, bravo. :clap: :clap: :clap:
:lol:

I’m enjoying a great discussion, and the openmindedness is greatly appreciated. I’m onboard that Williams has flaws - most notably deep speed. That’s something I see as a luxury rather than a necessity for a NFL RB since such a small minority of runs are long runs, but I do understand that others put more emphasis on it.

Keep it coming, guys! I don’t mind being wrong, and believe me I’m well experienced at it.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:41 am

realmacaroni wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:35 am Today i have him at 2.1/RB3 in my 12t SF ranks
That sounds about right. Depending on how you feel about QB4/5 and some of the WR past the top3-4, he's a late 1st/early 2nd for me too.

I think he's easily past 3 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and Pitts. So 10th at the earliest for me right now. I do like the consideration of him over the other RB though as I value differing opinions

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby GridironGuerilla » Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:17 pm

murphysxm wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:50 am This crap is growing tiresome. I feel like there are some posters that feel they legit need to win every thread. It's fantsay football guys.
It's the largest part of reason I don't invest a lot of time following these threads anymore.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Pac_Eddy » Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:44 pm

GridironGuerilla wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:17 pm
murphysxm wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:50 am This crap is growing tiresome. I feel like there are some posters that feel they legit need to win every thread. It's fantsay football guys.
It's the largest part of reason I don't invest a lot of time following these threads anymore.
Thank you for saying this. Agree completely.

There have been several long, dramatic cat fights. Makes me not visit as much.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:44 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:57 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:51 am I said "one of the first names", so there were multiple and it's not what I eventually settled on when I did my official write up for the DLF article. I saw him in uniform and then made one run, and my first impression was Monty for some reason. After watching more I morphed into several other comparables that align better, and I wondered why I thought Monty was my first reflex which seemed odd.

The fact that someone else thought that too is awesome. That means there's something about him that screams Monty and I can't figure it out. Body build? Posture? Something is there.
I think it's that he doesn't have elite speed or size, but just does everything pretty well. Might not be able to excel in a bad offense, but in an average or great offense his numbers will be good.

Like Kirk Cousins at QB. Good or great in the right setup, but not elite enough to carry a team.
I think I can get on board with this. I don’t think he’s elite either, but I don’t see an elite RB in this draft. But I think there may be enough there that he could be a FF RB1.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby lostcause » Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:25 pm

I don't get the Monty comparisons either. To me, this is who Williams reminds me of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsoAlsQu1zs

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Zhoward88 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:53 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:04 am With his current ADP, there's no way I'll be selecting him in any of my rookie drafts.

Javonte Williams won't be a full on bust but I wouldn't be shocked to see him selected in the third round, fourth round, or even later in the NFL draft. I'd be a little shocked/disappointed to see him taken in the top 5 of all running backs. I thinking the NFL draft will push him back to where he belongs in all dynasty drafts: late second or third rounder at best.

He lacks talent. He lacks speed. He put up good numbers in the ACC but the NFL is literally two whole notches above that. Williams had a lot of success running outside, but his lack of speed behind the LOS will make him more one-dimensional, which doesn't bode well for his future.

Nope, I'm out on this kid. I think he'll be similar to Jamaal Williams for his career. I don't trust him to be any better than that.

My over-valued for 2020 was Jonathan Taylor, and I said the only thing that could change my mind is if he went to a power system as a backup, which happened so I did indeed change my mind prior to the draft. With Williams that is not the case. I don't care who drafts him or what system he goes to, I will not be joining his fan club.

EDIT: Williams ran with a playing weight of 220-225 during his time at UNC. He obviously played slower than his counterpart Michael Carter. Then during his pro day, Williams weighed in at 212 and ran a 4.56 while Carter ran a 4.54. Did Williams drop weight just to have a better 40 time?

Also, here is the latest startup draft data regarding Williams vs other veteran fantasy players. IMO this is madness. Do people really think Williams has more upside than Aiyuk?

Screen Shot 2021-04-11 at 8.20.35 AM.png

EDIT2: I had to rewatch everything I made notes on and I thought I was wrong. His inside runs are definitely above average, as is his vision and feet. Then I watch him try to take a pitch or a sweep and he constantly gets brought down. He just doesn't have the speed to go outside and his hips never point up field. He's an inside runner with excellent hands. He's not worthy of a mid first pick imo.

EDIT3: I love his inside running. I LOVE it. It's more than above average. It's good to very good. He has a lot of quick moves and enough power to get the job done. Plus he can catch. He's be a starter somewhere, but I don't love his long term outlook (over 4 years).

EDIT4: I watched his film again my opinion of him just went down tbh. He leans into his cuts. He can't even make the simple moves to help make a defender miss. He takes too many hits, especially low ones as players try to take this big man down. He plowed through defenders a lot on film but he won't be able to do that in the NFL. I just can't get on board.

Check out this still image below. It's an option play that appears to be disguised as yet another option play (?? No idea what UNC is doing here). But all Williams has to do is run in the open space and use his blockers, so he elects to keep it, which is a solid choice imo. Look at what he sees and tell me you disagree that he should keep it:

Image

But what happens is utter chaos. He can't outrun the middle linebacker, despite the linebacker being 5 yards away when he originally decides to attack, and running diagonally at Williams while Williams basically runs horizontally to the sideline. There's no way a backer should catch up to him this easily. Williams finally rounds the corner and LEANS into his cut -- another bad sign -- chops his feet uselessly before being tackled easily by the corner.

Image

Agree or Disagree? Please share!
He’s been predicted to be in the first round in some mocks the last few days. Hahahaha
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby MEuRaH » Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:56 am

Zhoward88 wrote: Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:53 pmHe’s been predicted to be in the first round in some mocks the last few days. Hahahaha
Yeah, over guys like Etienne and Harris. That's driving me nuts.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:48 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:56 am
Zhoward88 wrote: Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:53 pmHe’s been predicted to be in the first round in some mocks the last few days. Hahahaha
Yeah, over guys like Etienne and Harris. That's driving me nuts.
Because they should all think like you? A runner with Williams’ ability has tremendous value to a NFL coach who thinks ahead of the curve - especially since he has the ability to be in on all 3 downs since he is a good receiver and will pass protect. As Ds keep getting lighter and faster, one great way of taking advantage of that is running right at them. It can create a significant mismatch at the point of attack. Williams is the best North/South between the tackles runner in this draft and he has no problem breaking through weak tackle attempts.

There is no prototypical elite RB in the draft. That at least some NFL teams would prefer Williams’ strengths over Etienne’s or Harris’ should be no surprise and it certainly shouldn’t drive you nuts.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby MEuRaH » Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:57 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:48 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:56 am
Zhoward88 wrote: Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:53 pmHe’s been predicted to be in the first round in some mocks the last few days. Hahahaha
Yeah, over guys like Etienne and Harris. That's driving me nuts.
Because they should all think like you? A runner with Williams’ ability has tremendous value to a NFL coach who thinks ahead of the curve - especially since he has the ability to be in on all 3 downs since he is a good receiver and will pass protect. As Ds keep getting lighter and faster, one great way of taking advantage of that is running right at them. It can create a significant mismatch at the point of attack. Williams is the best North/South between the tackles runner in this draft and he has no problem breaking through weak tackle attempts.

There is no prototypical elite RB in the draft. That at least some NFL teams would prefer Williams’ strengths over Etienne’s or Harris’ should be no surprise and it certainly shouldn’t drive you nuts.
Whoa, let's calm down here. I don't actually think it'll happen. I think the people doing the mocks are either hinging their work on rumors -- which is a faulty process imo -- or they are purposely not being truthful.

I forget who used to do mock draft along with Mel Kiper, but he gave an inside account as to the process of mock drafts. They purpose try to get things wrong from the first draft to the last. They do this so that they have to constantly change it, thus making it more interesting to read. They aren't actually trying to be accurate until the very last one. So when the very last mock comes out, I'll be interested. I see Williams as low-hanging fruit is all. There's not a more interesting player to put in the first round imo.

Until final mocks are posted later today, it's all fluff to me.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:05 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:57 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:48 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:56 am
Yeah, over guys like Etienne and Harris. That's driving me nuts.
That at least some NFL teams would prefer Williams’ strengths over Etienne’s or Harris’ should be no surprise and it certainly shouldn’t drive you nuts.
Whoa, let's calm down here.
I believe that of the two of us, I’m the calm one. Seeing any of the top 3 RBs as going as the first one drafted is giving me no heartburn whatsoever.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby mgscott » Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:29 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:48 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:56 am
Zhoward88 wrote: Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:53 pmHe’s been predicted to be in the first round in some mocks the last few days. Hahahaha
Yeah, over guys like Etienne and Harris. That's driving me nuts.
Because they should all think like you? A runner with Williams’ ability has tremendous value to a NFL coach who thinks ahead of the curve - especially since he has the ability to be in on all 3 downs since he is a good receiver and will pass protect. As Ds keep getting lighter and faster, one great way of taking advantage of that is running right at them. It can create a significant mismatch at the point of attack. Williams is the best North/South between the tackles runner in this draft and he has no problem breaking through weak tackle attempts.

There is no prototypical elite RB in the draft. That at least some NFL teams would prefer Williams’ strengths over Etienne’s or Harris’ should be no surprise and it certainly shouldn’t drive you nuts.
I think this year maybe more than most, the top 3 projected backs are very different and any of them could be the first back taken. Doesn't necessarily mean they are the best back, but the type of back that team wants. Similar to last year with CEH. Not many thought he was the best back in the draft, but the Chiefs obviously though he was the best back for them. If a team wants a more north/south, tough runner that can catch and block, Williams is probably their best bet. I wouldn't have a problem with it. I don't think any of these guys are sure-fire studs. It will be interesting.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby MEuRaH » Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:31 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:05 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:57 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:48 am
That at least some NFL teams would prefer Williams’ strengths over Etienne’s or Harris’ should be no surprise and it certainly shouldn’t drive you nuts.
Whoa, let's calm down here.
I believe that of the two of us, I’m the calm one. Seeing any of the top 3 RBs as going as the first one drafted is giving me no heartburn whatsoever.
I said "let's". My comment was directed at both of us.

I shouldn't have used that expression of "driving me nuts". It's just that these mock drafts are all over the place. Williams isn't a bust either. He's a fine prospect and he's in my top 5. He will definitely be a day 2 pick at worst, and he'll help out an NFL team in need.

But I also don't think it warranted an accusation that I'm supposedly mad that other people don't think like me, followed by an explanation as to why they shouldn't. That's not the case at all.

I don't think Williams will be selected over Harris or Etienne. Not even close. If it does happen, then I'll go nuts. :lol:

Perhaps I'll also come here to eat some crow. After all, I didn't expect Penny to be a first round pick either.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:37 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:31 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:05 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:57 am
Whoa, let's calm down here.
I believe that of the two of us, I’m the calm one. Seeing any of the top 3 RBs as going as the first one drafted is giving me no heartburn whatsoever.
I said "let's". My comment was directed at both of us.

I shouldn't have used that expression of "driving me nuts". It's just that these mock drafts are all over the place. Williams isn't a bust either. He's a fine prospect and he's in my top 5. He will definitely be a day 2 pick at worst, and he'll help out an NFL team in need.

But I also don't think it warranted an accusation that I'm supposedly mad that other people don't think like me, followed by an explanation as to why they shouldn't. That's not the case at all.

I don't think Williams will be selected over Harris or Etienne. Not even close. If it does happen, then I'll go nuts. :lol:

Perhaps I'll also come here to eat some crow. After all, I didn't expect Penny to be a first round pick either.
I believe that you may need to step back and just take a breath and relax. No one is accusing you of anything other than you expressing that Williams being the best RB in this class is irrational (I assume that’s what you mean when you say you are being driven nuts by anyone who would opt for Williams over Etienne or Harris).

I don’t see Etienne as easily the best RB in this draft like you do, but I understand your position. You see Etienne and envision Kamara. I see Etienne and I see just as much David Wilson as I see Kamara. You see Williams and see (from what I have gathered) a one dimensional runner with minus athleticism. I see strong parallels to Kareem Hunt across his entire game - including the negatives portrayed in Hunt’sscouting report that turned out to be wrong - which translates to a much more diverse runner than what you see. But I’m okay with you seeing what you see. None of us know with any certainty how these guys will translate at the next level.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Ice » Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:07 am

So glad it's draft day.

I will be shocked if Etienne and Harris are not the top 2 RB's drafted. I have them in that order but Harris has such a high floor I could see him going 1st in this group of 2.
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