My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby halfbaked88 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:37 pm

Javonte Williams fantasy success relies almost solely on his NFL draft position and landing spot.

If he goes in the 1st round by an NFL team deeming him worthy of a full workload then he's easily worth a first round rookie pick based on the value of the RB position.

If he's drafted in the 2nd round then we have to look more into the actual NFL team, backfield competition, coaching scheme etc..

3rd round he's basically a depth piece for somebody and I want zero part. That's roster clogger territory and almost always better to draft a WR of these type of RB situations where they don't have the draft capital to secure work on the field.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Finfansteve » Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:58 pm

halfbaked88 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:37 pm Javonte Williams fantasy success relies almost solely on his NFL draft position and landing spot.

If he goes in the 1st round by an NFL team deeming him worthy of a full workload then he's easily worth a first round rookie pick based on the value of the RB position.

If he's drafted in the 2nd round then we have to look more into the actual NFL team, backfield competition, coaching scheme etc..

3rd round he's basically a depth piece for somebody and I want zero part. That's roster clogger territory and almost always better to draft a WR of these type of RB situations where they don't have the draft capital to secure work on the field.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:12 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:43 pm
Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:57 pm
Sriracha wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:32 pm

His forty time was “resolved”? I must’ve missed that..

A combine adjusted 40 time of 4.63 puts a damper on his upside
40 times have been “normalized” here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... view#gid=0

Williams was a state champion on his 4x100 relay team in high school. I’m fairly confident he has enough speed to be able to succeed at the NFL level. He’s not Taylor, but if he fails it won’t be because he’s too slow, and trying to tag him as too slow to play in the NFL is a false narrative.
ETN ran a 4.45 official pro day time... I can’t take that list seriously after it ran with the 4.41 initially reported.

We want these guys to be faster because we’re all starving for RB production... but sometimes there just isnt that much talent at the position in an entire draft class. Weve had entire draft classes of misses before... and the knock on this class prior to the season was the RB depth.

I’m not saying that Javonte can’t have success in the NFL because of his speed... he’s a very physical back with the potential to have a 3 down skill set... but his pro comps right now is basically a less explosive and slower Marion Barber — which is a player you want — but that’s just not where he’s being valued at the moment. We’ve got people so enthused by his running style and highlights that theyre valuing him like Marshawn Lynch who was just a flat out better prospect
Take it however you want. That amalgam list was compiled from analysts who took great care in determining the times. including one of the guys who did a frame by frame analysis to determine 40 times.

I guess if just adding .05 to a guy’s worst hand timed 40 on various pro day tracks is what works for you, that’s your choice.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:17 pm

One would think that after telling the forum that current start-up 1.08 Cam Akers was a 3rd round pick, that one would realize that their thoughts on RBs aren’t something they need to announce. Alas.

I agree and disagree with this post. I agree Williams is overrated right now in the sense that his profile is well below what you want at the 1.04, where he’s being drafted. I disagree that he’s not one of the 5 best RBs in this terrible class. Williams isn’t a good prospect, and while he has barely-passable athleticism, he does have relatively strong production. He’d be a second round pick in an average class, but that’s better than I can say for every RB this year who isn’t Harris or Etienne.

Now, I would love for Mike to identify the 5 RBs who are better than Williams, just like I wanted him to identify the 6 players that were better than Jonathan Taylor back when he said we shouldn’t use our top 6 rookie pick on Taylor. He won’t, and the failure to do so renders the statement basically useless.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby MEuRaH » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:47 am

halfbaked88 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:37 pm Javonte Williams fantasy success relies almost solely on his NFL draft position and landing spot.

If he goes in the 1st round by an NFL team deeming him worthy of a full workload then he's easily worth a first round rookie pick based on the value of the RB position.

If he's drafted in the 2nd round then we have to look more into the actual NFL team, backfield competition, coaching scheme etc..

3rd round he's basically a depth piece for somebody and I want zero part. That's roster clogger territory and almost always better to draft a WR of these type of RB situations where they don't have the draft capital to secure work on the field.
This sounds like a catch-all for rookie RBs in general. Is this how you feel about all RBs? Or just Williams?
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby krtbuckeye » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:49 am

My opinion on this draft class as a whole, at least as it looks to me right now, is that:

1.) I see one prospect that I would actually make a move to go after. (Chase)
2.) There is a very small tier of 3-4 guys I think will be worth moving up a bit to get [Harris, Etienne, Smith, Bateman (maybe in the right situation)].
3.) Beyond those first 4-5 prospects, there is a deep pool of players who’s draft position and landing spots will largely determine how I view them moving forward in terms of where I’d be willing to draft them and if they look to be in a situation to succeed.

Williams falls into this third group for me. Like most, I see him as the RB3 in an underwhelming RB class. I’m interested to see where he goes, because I like his game and think he can succeed on the right situation.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby MEuRaH » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:55 am

krtbuckeye wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:49 am My opinion on this draft class as a whole, at least as it looks to me right now, is that:

1.) I see one prospect that I would actually make a move to go after. (Chase)
2.) There is a very small tier of 3-4 guys I think will be worth moving up a bit to get [Harris, Etienne, Smith, Bateman (maybe in the right situation)].
3.) Beyond those first 4-5 prospects, there is a deep pool of players who’s draft position and landing spots will largely determine how I view them moving forward in terms of where I’d be willing to draft them and if they look to be in a situation to succeed.

Williams falls into this third group for me. Like most, I see him as the RB3 in an underwhelming RB class. I’m interested to see where he goes, because I like his game and think he can succeed on the right situation.
Yeah this is close to how I feel. Williams might be the third best back in this group, or he could even be the tenth best back of this group. He's in this giant tier whose value will largely depend on the NFL draft.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby MEuRaH » Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:15 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:17 pm One would think that after telling the forum that current start-up 1.08 Cam Akers was a 3rd round pick, that one would realize that their thoughts on RBs aren’t something they need to announce. Alas.

I agree and disagree with this post. I agree Williams is overrated right now in the sense that his profile is well below what you want at the 1.04, where he’s being drafted. I disagree that he’s not one of the 5 best RBs in this terrible class. Williams isn’t a good prospect, and while he has barely-passable athleticism, he does have relatively strong production. He’d be a second round pick in an average class, but that’s better than I can say for every RB this year who isn’t Harris or Etienne.

Now, I would love for Mike to identify the 5 RBs who are better than Williams, just like I wanted him to identify the 6 players that were better than Jonathan Taylor back when he said we shouldn’t use our top 6 rookie pick on Taylor. He won’t, and the failure to do so renders the statement basically useless.
My verdict is still out on Akers. He couldn't beat out Malcom Brown on several occasions and was declared inactive several times in the early going. He had one great fantasy game in the regular season and then some good playoff games. It was enough to make me wonder if I'm wrong but not enough to convince me of anything yet.

It's not that Williams is not in my top 5. In fact he is as of now, but that's not saying much tbh. This RB class is a couple studs and then two or three tier drops to everyone else. There are some backs who are so much more versatile and faster than Williams, and there are a good handful of backs that are similar to Williams that I wouldn't be shocked if this Ekeler-like group gets drafted before him, and I'd be more excited about this draft class if this were to happen so that's what I'm rooting for.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Dynasty_Analyst » Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:07 am

I don’t breakdown film so I can’t offer a prospective on that , but I do know that he probably wont live up to his peak and rookie fever hype (unless of course he drops to the 3rd or 4th round. I’ll be looking to sell my shares over the summer if i acquire any.

Some of you are a little ridiculous on a side note. Do you want the mods just to keep there mouths shut so they can never offer any prospective or be wrong? Who cares I enjoy reading everyone’s opinions
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:03 am

JOHNNY_COCKTAIL wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:07 am Some of you are a little ridiculous on a side note. Do you want the mods just to keep there mouths shut so they can never offer any prospective or be wrong? Who cares I enjoy reading everyone’s opinions
I don’t see anyone saying mods should not offer “there” opinion. When it as as over-the-top in that opinion that one has to wonder whether they’ve actually watched the player they are offering “expert” opinion on or if they have that they don’t understand what they have watched, it is going to draw some strong counter opinions - much like last year when the OP posted similar questionable opinions about Taylor.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:13 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:15 am My verdict is still out on Akers. He couldn't beat out Malcom Brown on several occasions and was declared inactive several times in the early going. He had one great fantasy game in the regular season and then some good playoff games. It was enough to make me wonder if I'm wrong but not enough to convince me of anything yet.
My understanding is he was hurt. In any case, I have trouble understanding the value of suggesting that you're maybe not wrong about the recommendation that we all pass on a player who has since seen a massive surge in value. In any format, Akers is worth considerably more than what he would have cost when you recommended against acquiring him. Perhaps you can wait until Akers retires; then you can tell everybody that he has no value and that you were, in fact, correct?
dlf_mikeh wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:15 amIt's not that Williams is not in my top 5. In fact he is as of now, but that's not saying much tbh. This RB class is a couple studs and then two or three tier drops to everyone else. There are some backs who are so much more versatile and faster than Williams, and there are a good handful of backs that are similar to Williams that I wouldn't be shocked if this Ekeler-like group gets drafted before him, and I'd be more excited about this draft class if this were to happen so that's what I'm rooting for.
Yeah, the draft class is a crap-fire. I just don't see all of these "Ekeler-like" players that you're referencing. I could see that as a higher-end outcome for Kenny Gainwell's career, but that's about it.

I also think it's odd that you're describing "some backs who are so much more versatile and faster than Williams," when Williams' versatility (weighs > 210 lbs and scored 22 TDs, targeted on >8% of his team's pass attempts, regarded as a capable pass blocker) is really the thing he has going for him. I'm not sure who outside of the top 2 guys has a more diverse skill set than Williams does.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby honcho55 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:07 pm

As a bit of an aside, I’d like to ask folks who love Williams a question. I see people having him ahead of Harris, but also a full tier ahead of him too. I’d like to politely request some explanation there.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:51 am

honcho55 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:07 pm As a bit of an aside, I’d like to ask folks who love Williams a question. I see people having him ahead of Harris, but also a full tier ahead of him too. I’d like to politely request some explanation there.
I’m obviously a Williams proponent, but I have Harris close behind. I like his all-around versatility as much as Williams’. I’m guessing some people ding Harris because of age, but I’m not one of them.

My main concern with Harris is some uncertainty when he’s not surrounded by a team that is physically superior across the board like ‘Bama was. I watch the Harris’ lesser performances like the ‘20 A&M game and I see a lot of hesitation when Harris is not presented with a clear open gap in the line. Williams looks to be much more capable of creating something when there is little to nothing there. If Harris’ hesitation when presented with skinny seams carries over, that’s almost a death sentence for his being a 3 down RBs in the bigs.

Right now Harris and Williams are the only guys in this draft that I see with legit 3 down capability and are situation-proof. I’m pretty sure another 1 or 2 will show up, but my guess is it will be guys that come out of nowhere and adapt almost perfectly to the pro game.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby jenkins.math » Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:41 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:51 am
honcho55 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:07 pm As a bit of an aside, I’d like to ask folks who love Williams a question. I see people having him ahead of Harris, but also a full tier ahead of him too. I’d like to politely request some explanation there.
I’m obviously a Williams proponent, but I have Harris close behind. I like his all-around versatility as much as Williams’. I’m guessing some people ding Harris because of age, but I’m not one of them.

My main concern with Harris is some uncertainty when he’s not surrounded by a team that is physically superior across the board like ‘Bama was. I watch the Harris’ lesser performances like the ‘20 A&M game and I see a lot of hesitation when Harris is not presented with a clear open gap in the line. Williams looks to be much more capable of creating something when there is little to nothing there. If Harris’ hesitation when presented with skinny seams carries over, that’s almost a death sentence for his being a 3 down RBs in the bigs.

Right now Harris and Williams are the only guys in this draft that I see with legit 3 down capability and are situation-proof. I’m pretty sure another 1 or 2 will show up, but my guess is it will be guys that come out of nowhere and adapt almost perfectly to the pro game.
The fact that Williams had another 1000 yard rusher on his own team this year that nobody thinks is a special prospect doesn't concern you? Or when UNC finally played a good team Javonte averaged 2.5 yards per carry in that game (for the record Harris averged 8.9 against that same Note Dame squad)?

UNC played a horrible schedule this year. Trying to compare what Harris did in the SEC to Williams and his soft ACC schedule isn't a fair comparison.

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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:01 am

jenkins.math wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:41 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:51 am
honcho55 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:07 pm As a bit of an aside, I’d like to ask folks who love Williams a question. I see people having him ahead of Harris, but also a full tier ahead of him too. I’d like to politely request some explanation there.
I’m obviously a Williams proponent, but I have Harris close behind. I like his all-around versatility as much as Williams’. I’m guessing some people ding Harris because of age, but I’m not one of them.

My main concern with Harris is some uncertainty when he’s not surrounded by a team that is physically superior across the board like ‘Bama was. I watch the Harris’ lesser performances like the ‘20 A&M game and I see a lot of hesitation when Harris is not presented with a clear open gap in the line. Williams looks to be much more capable of creating something when there is little to nothing there. If Harris’ hesitation when presented with skinny seams carries over, that’s almost a death sentence for his being a 3 down RBs in the bigs.

Right now Harris and Williams are the only guys in this draft that I see with legit 3 down capability and are situation-proof. I’m pretty sure another 1 or 2 will show up, but my guess is it will be guys that come out of nowhere and adapt almost perfectly to the pro game.
The fact that Williams had another 1000 yard rusher on his own team this year that nobody thinks is a special prospect doesn't concern you? Or when UNC finally played a good team Javonte averaged 2.5 yards per carry in that game (for the record Harris averged 8.9 against that same Note Dame squad)?

UNC played a horrible schedule this year. Trying to compare what Harris did in the SEC to Williams and his soft ACC schedule isn't a fair comparison.
Carter being a good RB doesn’t affect my opinion on Williams. Why would it?

The SEC was’t all that defensively. Alabama overwhelmed all of their opponents badly. You really want to make an apples to apples comparison from what Harris had around him vs Williams and compare a common opponent? C’mon, be serious. And NC’s O line wasn’t anywhere near what Harris had to run behind. Watch their play against even average Ds.

When I’m evaluating players I watch what they do as individuals in the situations they are placed. I pay careful attention to how they play when they have their less productive days to see how they reacted in tough situations, since that’s what they’ll see at the next level even though the talent level is much more evenly matched in the NFL. I don’t see how you’re going to gain anything really meaningful if your basis of analysis is to primarily compare conferences.

I’ll stand by what I see. If I’m wrong I’ll own it and hopefully learn from it. So yes, I see Williams as being a superior RB to Harris right now. Even though Harris played in the SEC and Williams played in the ACC.


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