2021 Season Fades

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
yinzername
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby yinzername » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:56 pm

^word, are those the mizelle adp ranks?

that sounds like a fairly reasonable place to rank them, sure.

I'm basing my fade on what seems to be the consensus opinion of these guys, again particularly Sutton, around here. like if you look at any trade threads involving Sutton, they are largely in favor of him. lots of "Sutton side all day" and Sutton easily" responses.

I'm saying if they were to fall to me in a startup draft, I'd pass and let somebody else take that ride. I'd easily go Diontae Johnson, an upside inbound rookie like Bateman or Waddle in a good landing spot, or guys like Deebo or Chark/Shenault with an upside QB situation inbound (tho that may not be Deebo's sitch right away) over the Denver WRs.

regarding trades, I'm not buying Sutton Jeudy or Fant anywhere

Of course, reasonably, I would easily change (or double down) my opinion depending on Denver's draft outcome
SF - PPR - 12t - start10
Notable Assets in Rebuild
QB: Mahomes - Levis - Rudolph
RB: K Mitchell - J McLaughlin - C Rodriguez - Z Evans
WR: AJB - M Pittman- R Doubs - E Moore - Shaheed - C Tillman- A Iosivas
TE: MAndrews - Kraft
'24: 1.1, 1.7, 2.1, 2.6, 2.10, 3.1, 4.2, 4.7
‘25: 1 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds

1st YEAR START-UP
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RB: Chubb - D Montgomery - D Singletary - A Mattison - K Miller - R Freeman - J Hill
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:49 pm

realmacaroni wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:56 pm ^word, are those the mizelle adp ranks?

that sounds like a fairly reasonable place to rank them, sure.

I'm basing my fade on what seems to be the consensus opinion of these guys, again particularly Sutton, around here. like if you look at any trade threads involving Sutton, they are largely in favor of him. lots of "Sutton side all day" and Sutton easily" responses.

I'm saying if they were to fall to me in a startup draft, I'd pass and let somebody else take that ride. I'd easily go Diontae Johnson, an upside inbound rookie like Bateman or Waddle in a good landing spot, or guys like Deebo or Chark/Shenault with an upside QB situation inbound (tho that may not be Deebo's sitch right away) over the Denver WRs.

regarding trades, I'm not buying Sutton Jeudy or Fant anywhere

Of course, reasonably, I would easily change (or double down) my opinion depending on Denver's draft outcome
Yeah Bateman, Waddle, Deebo and Shenault might even be able to put up 700 and 1100 yards in their first two seasons with garbage QBs (probably not though)

SoftwoodGrampian
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby SoftwoodGrampian » Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:24 pm

Godwin

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby dustyroads » Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:34 am

Vcize wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:48 pm
dustyroads wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:25 am May be on an island here, but I say all Vikings players.

I think we just saw the best season Cousins will ever have, especially helped by a lot of garbage time stats. While I don't think he's going to drop off a cliff, I do think the overall situation for Cousins will decline. Their line wasn't great to begin with and lost Reiff. They aren't projected to draft OL in the 1st and don't have a 2nd round pick, nor did they do much here in FA. What they did do was improve the defense quite a bit, and are projected at using that 2021 1st to improve it some more. Better defense = less garbage time (which they found themselves in a lot last year I think inflating Cousins and the WRs stats). Also, if they don't do something to improve the line, it'll certainly be worse then the average it was last season. I don't play SF, but unless I was competing for a ship, I'd be looking to sell. There will be high expectations from the Viking's this year with his $31 million cap hit, and if they aren't at least playing in the NFC Championship, I think he's at best learning a new offensive playbook in 2022.

Trickle down effect here to Jefferson, who I think will still be a WR1 and put up solid numbers as his talent and position of first read in this offense; but a combination of Cousins being lower plus other WRs coming back up will push him down from his 2020 finish as WR6 overall down closer to WR10-12 overall. In dynasty/owners market he's obv a hold for me, although I would consider selling for a Godfather offer considering I don't think his value will (can?) get any higher than it currently is. In redraft/buyer's scenario, I'm avoiding/waiting. His value will come down to a more reasonable purchase price after this year IMO, and there are receivers I like better for 2021 going after him in redraft.

I think the biggest impact will be Thielen. Last year he benefitted the most I think from the Cousins garbage time. He scored 14 TDs, 8 more than 2019 (he'd only scored 24 TDs in the previous four years combined); despite seeing a large drop in targets from his peak years in 2017/18. He's hit age 30 and to my eyes just didn't look as good last year (or really even in 2019 prior to his injury). Again, I don't think he falls off the map completely, I think his ADP and actual value are forking in opposite directions at this point. I'd fade him in redrafts/buyer's scenario and sell him at what I think is his current high in dynasty/owners market. I think he's looking for a job the end of 2022.
Interesting thoughts, thanks for the read.

Cousins has been extremely.consistent with his yardage. 4000+ yards passing 5 of the last 6 years. Last years 4265 was only his 3rd best and was a full 700 yards off his career high.

The only thing he really beat his career averages on this year was TDs, throwing 35 instead of his usual high 20's. I could see that affecting Thielen who was the recipient of nearly all of those extra 7-8 TDs but Jefferson did most of his damage on receptions and yardage where Cousins was merely in line with his career averages this year.
For sure! And def agree, was trying to say more that I worry Cousins situation will effect his scoring more then his play would. I see him putting up numbers closer to 2019, some TD regression, some worse line play, and what I think will be a much improved defense (when considering they were in the bottom 5 last year). I see them being within one score going into the second half and doing more running and time management, instead of being down three scores and finally unleashing Cousins.

So far Zimmer seems content with keeping games close from start like that and keeping Cousins on a leash until he needs to play catch up. I don't seem him getting away from that coaching style (esp. after hiring in-house for new OC so he can keep the same scheme). Rather, just fewer situations where they need to air it out in the late 3rd and 4th quarters. I actually hate this as a fan, and think he's screwing up what could be a great Vikings team by using such a vanilla offense and being as predictable as he is with the great pieces he has (in particular running Cooks into the ground much more so then he needs to early in the season). But just see this as the most likely scenario. I suppose there is the chance his overuse of Cook turns into an injury and they he has to let Cousins eat and he and the WR corp put up a fantastic season lol. I'm just kinda fading all these guys in my redraft leagues, and not pursuing purchasing any of them in my dynasty leagues. And if I did own Jefferson, I'd be shopping to see if I could get a monster deal (multiple firsts, another young WR like Lamb/Chase/McLaurin)

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby dmac37 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:53 pm

SoftwoodGrampian wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:24 pm Godwin
As long as AB does not return, I think Godwin will be one of the better value elite WR's at their current ADP.
12 Team PPR Scoring:
QB: Purdy, Pickett, Howell, Rodgers
RB: Bijan, Kamara, A. Jones Spears Allgeier, Tucker, Hunt
WR: ARSB, Ridley, Nacua, E. Moore, Hollywood, Addison, Mingo, Mooney,
M. Thomas, Gallup
TE: Hockenson, Ferguson
PK:
DST: Ravens

12 Team Superflex PPR Scoring:
QB: Fields, Tua, Howell, White
RB: J. Taylor, A. Jones, Pierce, Swift , K. Miller, Hunt, Ford,
WR: Pittman, Deebo, Godwin, Ridley, Gabe Davis, E. Moore, Mooney, Toney, Q. Johnson
TE: Ferguson, Okonkwo L. Thomas

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby SoftwoodGrampian » Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:51 pm

dmac37 wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:53 pm
SoftwoodGrampian wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:24 pm Godwin
As long as AB does not return, I think Godwin will be one of the better value elite WR's at their current ADP.
Ya?? Well I think you’re wrong!
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby tresskid84 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:46 pm

Josh Allen. Last year has been the outlier of his entire career dating back to college. I'm not paying up qb2 prices for him just yet, so i will continue to not own him, given his price, lol.

Just to be clear, im not saying he can't or won't repeat last year, im just saying i won't be rostering him hoping to find out, lol. Ill pay the piper next year if he proves it's for real and not a one year outlier
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby Bronco Billy » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:50 am

tresskid84 wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:46 pm Josh Allen. Last year has been the outlier of his entire career dating back to college. I'm not paying up qb2 prices for him just yet, so i will continue to not own him, given his price, lol.

Just to be clear, im not saying he can't or won't repeat last year, im just saying i won't be rostering him hoping to find out, lol. Ill pay the piper next year if he proves it's for real and not a one year outlier
I’ve seen this mentality in other threads also, notably the Pitts thread regarding simply acquiring TEs after they have established themselves as upper echelon to elite players. Do you guys play in leagues where owners freely sell off newly established highly valuable assets without putting a substantial premium on them, because that has never been the case in any league I’ve played in.

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby jordanzs » Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:58 am

Maybe I’m wrong on this one, but I’ll be fading Jonathan Taylor at where he’s being drafted. Call it the Carson Wentz effect. That doesn’t feel like it’s priced in enough.

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby joeya2001 » Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:27 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:50 am
tresskid84 wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:46 pm Josh Allen. Last year has been the outlier of his entire career dating back to college. I'm not paying up qb2 prices for him just yet, so i will continue to not own him, given his price, lol.

Just to be clear, im not saying he can't or won't repeat last year, im just saying i won't be rostering him hoping to find out, lol. Ill pay the piper next year if he proves it's for real and not a one year outlier
I’ve seen this mentality in other threads also, notably the Pitts thread regarding simply acquiring TEs after they have established themselves as upper echelon to elite players. Do you guys play in leagues where owners freely sell off newly established highly valuable assets without putting a substantial premium on them, because that has never been the case in any league I’ve played in.
I mean sometimes it good to buy guys after a breakout if you think they can again, this time last year, Waller could have been had at a decent price, now, not so much
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR

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QB- Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love
RB- Alvin Kamara, AJ Dillion
WR- Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman, Aiyuk, Alec Pierce, DJ Chare, Terrace Marshall, Metchie,
TE- George Kittle, Darren Waller, Greg Dortch.

Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF

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QB Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett, Geno,
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WR Tee Higgins, Sutton, HollywoodTerry McLaurin, DJM, Ju-Ju, Hodgins,
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby CGW » Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:39 pm

jordanzs wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:58 am Maybe I’m wrong on this one, but I’ll be fading Jonathan Taylor at where he’s being drafted. Call it the Carson Wentz effect. That doesn’t feel like it’s priced in enough.
You could be right, and I'm not a big carson Wentz fan. That said, comparing JTs situation in Indy to 2020 Philly, there arent many similarities. Indy has a smart coach, a top offense line, one of the best (if not the best) defenses in the league, and a better WR group than the eagles. I think they could do a lot by adding a big time WR, but even what they have in Hilton, Pittman, and Pascal is better than anything the Eagles have thrown out there. As a colts fan I wasn't super excited about Wentz, but Rivers arm had zero left in the tank. Wentz can at least scare defenses with downfield throws.

I think it's fair to fade him from the ADP hes currently priced at in the top half of the 1st in startups....but i also think hes just as likely to put up league winning numbers.

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby The MAC Machine » Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:42 pm

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12 TEAM SUPERFLEX PPR
START: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 3 FLEX, 1 SUPERFLEX
ROSTER STARTERS
QB: S. Darnold (CAR)
RB: J. Jacobs (LV), L. Fournette (TB)
WR: Cooper (DAL), Ridley (ATL), M. Williams (LAC)
TE: R. Seals-Jones (WAS), M. Alie-Cox (IND)
FLEX: Sutton (DEN), J. Smith-Schuster (PIT), D. Harris (NE)
SUPERFLEX: M. Jones (NE)


BENCH:
QB: Rudolph (PIT), Book (NO), Minshew (PHL), Stidham (NE)
RB: Cord. Patterson (ATL), A. Collins (SEA), D. Dallas (SEA), K. Vaughn (TB), JJ Taylor (NE), S. Perine (CIN)
WR: M. Jones (JAX), Zaccheus (ATL), G. Olszewski (NE)
TE: B. Jarwin (DAL), D. Asiasi (NE)
IR: Tre' Q. Smith (NO), Tyrod Taylor (HOU), Chark Jr (JAX), R. Penny (SEA)

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby dustyroads » Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:40 am

The Godwin Complex wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:42 pm Reagor
McLaurin
McLaurin is interesting. I see a lot of people actually giving him a boost with Fitz coming to town. Why do you think he's a fade? Curtis Samuel eating up targets? Gibson's role getting increased?

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby sugbear65 » Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:41 am

Pittsburgh WRs. They are going to all cannibalize each other’s targets. Also Ben is on the backslide of his career arc, and constantly banged up. When(not if) he misses time next year, the backup would be...Haskins? Do they still have that guy that makes duck calls? Not real sure, but definitely uninspiring options. Plus even when he’s healthy, there are the road games. I like D. Johnson a lot and C. Claypool looked awesome at times last year. JuJu has been a top 25 guy for awhile now. But I think the best time to trade for these guys, and when a buy low window may open, will be in season. At current prices, not for me.

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:50 am

sugbear65 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:41 am Pittsburgh WRs. They are going to all cannibalize each other’s targets. Also Ben is on the backslide of his career arc, and constantly banged up. When(not if) he misses time next year, the backup would be...Haskins? Do they still have that guy that makes duck calls? Not real sure, but definitely uninspiring options. Plus even when he’s healthy, there are the road games. I like D. Johnson a lot and C. Claypool looked awesome at times last year. JuJu has been a top 25 guy for awhile now. But I think the best time to trade for these guys, and when a buy low window may open, will be in season. At current prices, not for me.
I've said it before but I've had good success with buying the cheapest PIT WR while selling the most expensive. I believe the 3 of them all flipped about 8 times last season. I agree with your premise too. Bens arm, The ball will be spread around and they have to try to run the ball this year right?


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