2021 Season Fades

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2021 Season Fades

Postby McCafsteez » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:38 am

Who are you fading in the 2021 season and why? I will be staying away from:

Tyler Lockett - Too hit or miss week to week.
Josh Jacobs - Can’t pony up big for him until I see how the Raiders use Drake.
Andy Dalton - Just can’t see him being successful in Chicago (coming from a Bears fan).
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby CubfanAA » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:51 am

I gotta say I'm the exact opposite with Lockett. He has averaged 1000 yards and 9 TD's the last 3 seasons and is somehow still ranked around WR37 in startups and seems to have no value in my ongoing leagues. I'm acquiring everywhere for the prices he's at.

I'm fading Michael Thomas. Ankle surgery scares me and he has no QB anymore, but he's still ranked as a top 12 WR on most lists.

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby dustyroads » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:25 am

May be on an island here, but I say all Vikings players.

I think we just saw the best season Cousins will ever have, especially helped by a lot of garbage time stats. While I don't think he's going to drop off a cliff, I do think the overall situation for Cousins will decline. Their line wasn't great to begin with and lost Reiff. They aren't projected to draft OL in the 1st and don't have a 2nd round pick, nor did they do much here in FA. What they did do was improve the defense quite a bit, and are projected at using that 2021 1st to improve it some more. Better defense = less garbage time (which they found themselves in a lot last year I think inflating Cousins and the WRs stats). Also, if they don't do something to improve the line, it'll certainly be worse then the average it was last season. I don't play SF, but unless I was competing for a ship, I'd be looking to sell. There will be high expectations from the Viking's this year with his $31 million cap hit, and if they aren't at least playing in the NFC Championship, I think he's at best learning a new offensive playbook in 2022.

Trickle down effect here to Jefferson, who I think will still be a WR1 and put up solid numbers as his talent and position of first read in this offense; but a combination of Cousins being lower plus other WRs coming back up will push him down from his 2020 finish as WR6 overall down closer to WR10-12 overall. In dynasty/owners market he's obv a hold for me, although I would consider selling for a Godfather offer considering I don't think his value will (can?) get any higher than it currently is. In redraft/buyer's scenario, I'm avoiding/waiting. His value will come down to a more reasonable purchase price after this year IMO, and there are receivers I like better for 2021 going after him in redraft.

I think the biggest impact will be Thielen. Last year he benefitted the most I think from the Cousins garbage time. He scored 14 TDs, 8 more than 2019 (he'd only scored 24 TDs in the previous four years combined); despite seeing a large drop in targets from his peak years in 2017/18. He's hit age 30 and to my eyes just didn't look as good last year (or really even in 2019 prior to his injury). Again, I don't think he falls off the map completely, I think his ADP and actual value are forking in opposite directions at this point. I'd fade him in redrafts/buyer's scenario and sell him at what I think is his current high in dynasty/owners market. I think he's looking for a job the end of 2022.
Last edited by dustyroads on Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:29 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby dustyroads » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:27 am

CubfanAA wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:51 am I gotta say I'm the exact opposite with Lockett. He has averaged 1000 yards and 9 TD's the last 3 seasons and is somehow still ranked around WR37 in startups and seems to have no value in my ongoing leagues. I'm acquiring everywhere for the prices he's at.

I'm fading Michael Thomas. Ankle surgery scares me and he has no QB anymore, but he's still ranked as a top 12 WR on most lists.
Bought myself at the end of last season for Devante Parker and Christian Kirk. Consolidating my roster for the 2021 draft was def some of the reasoning, but I also like him as a more consistent WR3/Flex start every week then the other two.

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby kadun2 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:22 am

dustyroads wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:27 am
CubfanAA wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:51 am I gotta say I'm the exact opposite with Lockett. He has averaged 1000 yards and 9 TD's the last 3 seasons and is somehow still ranked around WR37 in startups and seems to have no value in my ongoing leagues. I'm acquiring everywhere for the prices he's at.

I'm fading Michael Thomas. Ankle surgery scares me and he has no QB anymore, but he's still ranked as a top 12 WR on most lists.
Bought myself at the end of last season for Devante Parker and Christian Kirk. Consolidating my roster for the 2021 draft was def some of the reasoning, but I also like him as a more consistent WR3/Flex start every week then the other two.
I think it all depends on if they let Russ cook. I think they will, at least to start the season. Probably similar to last year. Hopefully we get an uptick in consistency from Lockett.

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby M-Dub » Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:28 am

I haven’t looked at any redraft rankings, but if people are drafting/buying Aaron Rodgers, David Montgomery or Calvin Ridley expecting similar production to last year, I think they’ll be sorely disappointed.
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QB: Hurts, Howell
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WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
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WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby Anteaters » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:09 am

Lockett: I like Lockett, too. No fade for me.

MThomas: I'm a little worried about MT. If TB gave up on Winston, how many 4INT games is Payton going to accept before he benches Winston for Hill. I see Hill as more of a game manager than a high volume passer. That slides MT down to WR12-20 range for me. If Winston corrects his progressions, I could be the wrongest of wrongs on this one.

Hurts: I'm not on his bandwagon. The history of QBs taken outside of round 1 who become a success is not a frequently traveled road. I see more question marks than assurances about his game. I'd be on board with holding him or getting him cheap, but I don't plan to pay a lot to get him before the season begins. If he turns out to be the real deal, I'll live with the regret.

CMC: I love him, but I don't think the odds are good that he remains a top5 RB beyond 2021. I would probably still jump at the chance to trade for him, but only if I think my team is championship level.

2nd & 3rd yr WRs: Aiyuk/Reagor/DJohnson/Deebo/Hollywood/Jeudy/Claypool, all these guys (and more) can't all be Top20 WRs. Once a WR is in the 20s for season points, I start fading him. There are 4-5 rock solid superstars, and another 7-10 sure thing studs. After that, there's not a lot of difference between ACooper/MarJones in the late teens and CorDavis/Boyd in the mid 30s. Then it's not that far from Davis/Boyd to Gage/Crowder approaching the 40 range. I'm sorry, but I can't get worked up for all these 2nd/3rd year guys. I'm happy to take any of them cheap or hold the ones I have, but I'm not sold enough on any of them to make them the centerpiece of any deal where I give up meaningful assets. One of them will probably be a top10 WR soon, but damn if I can deduce which one. I'd rather have Lockett than any of these guys.
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby murphysxm » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:22 am

It's all about the value. I don't fade intentionally, I just won't reach if the player is going above where I value them. I would love to acquire Ceedee Lamb, but not at his price tag for instance
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby Kelldon » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:24 pm

I wouldn't be all that worried with MT. Winston was pretty good for Godwin AND Evans his last year in Tampa. As far as interceptions I think he does better with Sean and his offense. Every qb even Brady threw more interceptions than normal under Arians. Teddy was better in New Orleans than in Carolina. I could see Winston have 3600+yds 32+tds 14-16ints. He has already had a 5k passing season wouldn't surprise me if he got over 4k in Sean's offense. If anything the offense was limited the past 2 years with Brees.
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby Anteaters » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:07 pm

Kelldon wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:24 pm I wouldn't be all that worried with MT. Winston was pretty good for Godwin AND Evans his last year in Tampa. As far as interceptions I think he does better with Sean and his offense. Every qb even Brady threw more interceptions than normal under Arians. Teddy was better in New Orleans than in Carolina. I could see Winston have 3600+yds 32+tds 14-16ints. He has already had a 5k passing season wouldn't surprise me if he got over 4k in Sean's offense. If anything the offense was limited the past 2 years with Brees.
I agree all that is possible and makes a good bit of sense. I hope it happens.
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12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
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WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby yinzername » Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:41 pm

I’m lower on Denver pass catchers than the general consensus. Particularly Sutton. His current value is too high for his situation, imo.
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby Blueboy » Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:59 pm

QB: Dak, Tannehill, Roethlisberger

I think Dak is still solid, as he always has been, but closer to what Stafford will be than QB1 overall. The Cowboys ought to be more balanced, and defensive competition in-division should be better. I always bet against a player returning to their small-sample-size historic pace.

Unless the Titans really find some good pieces to replace Davis/Jonnu, I'll be really worried about Tannehill. Those guys didn't put up huge fantasy numbers, yeah, but their skillsets were vital to that passing game.

Roethlisberger looked downright toast to me down the stretch. Couple that with Pittsburgh's O-line taking a hit this offseason, and I'm out on predictable QB performance there.

RB: Cook, Sanders, Jacobs, Swift

All these guys are tremendously talented RBs with situations I can't see being conducive to reliable fantasy production. For Cook, I just see the Vikings taking a big step back in terms of garbage time fantasy luck. Jacobs is hurt by the Drake signing (and the way he was used just last year), and Swift is just in an offense that makes me unwilling to trust anybody but Hockenson.

Sanders will get a boost from Philly's O-line improving, so I'd be fine with him at RB2 prices, but everywhere I see has him ranked as RB 8-10 range. Rushing QBs can really cripple RBs in the red zone.

WR: Diggs, Metcalf, Jefferson

Again, these guys are tremendously talented WRs, and in dynasty I have no problem just holding on to them unless you get a clear over pay. For 2021 though, they're being drafted as top 5 (or top 3) WRs, and I just don't see that repeating. Predicting WR 1-15 range is a lot more consistent that 1-5 year-to-year.

TE: Waller, H. Henry, Jonnu

Waller's great and will still finish as QB 2-5, I think, but score less than last year. I expect the Raiders other receiving options to take at least a moderate step forward and decrease the amount of 10-target games Waller enjoys.

For Henry and Jonnu, I can see top-12 production, but in the sort of "Trey Burton in Chicago" way. That could change if Cam Newton isn't NE's quarterback. He just won't be sustaining viable weekly fantasy options at this point.

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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby joeya2001 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:44 am

Anteaters wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:09 am Lockett: I like Lockett, too. No fade for me.

MThomas: I'm a little worried about MT. If TB gave up on Winston, how many 4INT games is Payton going to accept before he benches Winston for Hill. I see Hill as more of a game manager than a high volume passer. That slides MT down to WR12-20 range for me. If Winston corrects his progressions, I could be the wrongest of wrongs on this one.

Hurts: I'm not on his bandwagon. The history of QBs taken outside of round 1 who become a success is not a frequently traveled road. I see more question marks than assurances about his game. I'd be on board with holding him or getting him cheap, but I don't plan to pay a lot to get him before the season begins. If he turns out to be the real deal, I'll live with the regret.

CMC: I love him, but I don't think the odds are good that he remains a top5 RB beyond 2021. I would probably still jump at the chance to trade for him, but only if I think my team is championship level.

2nd & 3rd yr WRs: Aiyuk/Reagor/DJohnson/Deebo/Hollywood/Jeudy/Claypool, all these guys (and more) can't all be Top20 WRs. Once a WR is in the 20s for season points, I start fading him. There are 4-5 rock solid superstars, and another 7-10 sure thing studs. After that, there's not a lot of difference between ACooper/MarJones in the late teens and CorDavis/Boyd in the mid 30s. Then it's not that far from Davis/Boyd to Gage/Crowder approaching the 40 range. I'm sorry, but I can't get worked up for all these 2nd/3rd year guys. I'm happy to take any of them cheap or hold the ones I have, but I'm not sold enough on any of them to make them the centerpiece of any deal where I give up meaningful assets. One of them will probably be a top10 WR soon, but damn if I can deduce which one. I'd rather have Lockett than any of these guys.
You dont think their alot of difference between Amari Cooper and Marvin Jones?
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby Vcize » Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:48 pm

dustyroads wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:25 am May be on an island here, but I say all Vikings players.

I think we just saw the best season Cousins will ever have, especially helped by a lot of garbage time stats. While I don't think he's going to drop off a cliff, I do think the overall situation for Cousins will decline. Their line wasn't great to begin with and lost Reiff. They aren't projected to draft OL in the 1st and don't have a 2nd round pick, nor did they do much here in FA. What they did do was improve the defense quite a bit, and are projected at using that 2021 1st to improve it some more. Better defense = less garbage time (which they found themselves in a lot last year I think inflating Cousins and the WRs stats). Also, if they don't do something to improve the line, it'll certainly be worse then the average it was last season. I don't play SF, but unless I was competing for a ship, I'd be looking to sell. There will be high expectations from the Viking's this year with his $31 million cap hit, and if they aren't at least playing in the NFC Championship, I think he's at best learning a new offensive playbook in 2022.

Trickle down effect here to Jefferson, who I think will still be a WR1 and put up solid numbers as his talent and position of first read in this offense; but a combination of Cousins being lower plus other WRs coming back up will push him down from his 2020 finish as WR6 overall down closer to WR10-12 overall. In dynasty/owners market he's obv a hold for me, although I would consider selling for a Godfather offer considering I don't think his value will (can?) get any higher than it currently is. In redraft/buyer's scenario, I'm avoiding/waiting. His value will come down to a more reasonable purchase price after this year IMO, and there are receivers I like better for 2021 going after him in redraft.

I think the biggest impact will be Thielen. Last year he benefitted the most I think from the Cousins garbage time. He scored 14 TDs, 8 more than 2019 (he'd only scored 24 TDs in the previous four years combined); despite seeing a large drop in targets from his peak years in 2017/18. He's hit age 30 and to my eyes just didn't look as good last year (or really even in 2019 prior to his injury). Again, I don't think he falls off the map completely, I think his ADP and actual value are forking in opposite directions at this point. I'd fade him in redrafts/buyer's scenario and sell him at what I think is his current high in dynasty/owners market. I think he's looking for a job the end of 2022.
Interesting thoughts, thanks for the read.

Cousins has been extremely.consistent with his yardage. 4000+ yards passing 5 of the last 6 years. Last years 4265 was only his 3rd best and was a full 700 yards off his career high.

The only thing he really beat his career averages on this year was TDs, throwing 35 instead of his usual high 20's. I could see that affecting Thielen who was the recipient of nearly all of those extra 7-8 TDs but Jefferson did most of his damage on receptions and yardage where Cousins was merely in line with his career averages this year.
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Re: 2021 Season Fades

Postby mild » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:26 pm

realmacaroni wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:41 pm I’m lower on Denver pass catchers than the general consensus. Particularly Sutton. His current value is too high for his situation, imo.
Perhaps I'm missing something, but both Sutton and Jeudy are back to back in April ADP as mid-5th round startup picks. They are ostensibly the same value. You're saying Sutton should be valued below Jeudy?

Receivers of note going after them: Diontae Johnson, Julio, Kenny Golladay, Robert Woods, Chark, Cooper Kupp, Deebo, OBJ.

As in: all guys with a lot of questions built into their ongoing dynasty outlook.

I would argue that actually, the Denver receivers present good value at their present prices - because the highly probable outcome of a QB -better- than Drew Lock finding his way to Denver to compete is not being currently baked in to their values. Even if it is (holds nose) Teddy Bridgewater (aka the worst case scenario) - that would still represent a moderate upgrade in the department of "the ball finding the receiver with a modicum of targeted accuracy".


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