Pros:FantasyDumDum wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:01 amNext year Darnold will have the following changes, all positive:knotts4372 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:10 ami dont think its fair at all to EXPECT the gaudy numbers you think of. those number would make him a top 10 qb going by last years numbers while having one of the worst wr groups in the nfl. the numbers you quote are all way too high to expect from him imo and his ints will undoubtedly be more than just 10.FantasyDumDum wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:38 pm Darnold, as a rookie in 13 games last year, having only just turned 21 years old, with a very lackluster supporting cast and scheme:
239/414, 57.7%, 2865y, 17 TD, 15 Int, 138y rushing, 1 TD.
Extrapolated to 16 games that is:
3500+y, 21 TD, 18.4 Int, 170y rushing, 1.2 TD.
I think it’s fair to expect Darnold to be in the 550 attempts, 4000y, 30TD, 10 Int, 200y rushing, 2 TD area starting likely in 2020 while building towards that eventuality this year. That would make him a mid QB2 this year and low QB1 going forward next year, with partially high upside due to his talent and age and partially low upside because of his situation under Gase for the time being.
I’m buying.
imo his numbers to reasonably expect would be more along the line of 3300-3500 yds, 22-25 td, 15-18 int. thats what i expect from him at least. not saying he cant put up more just i dont anticipate him doing so
No longer youngest QB in NFL history and no longer a rookie starting day 1 in the NFL, adding LeVeon Bell and Jamison Crowder, getting 16 games from each of Enunwa and Anderson instead of 19 games combined between them, his up and coming TE will be in his 2nd year rather than rookie year, his abysmal OL is better after adding Osemele and new OL coach.
These were his starters last year:
RB Crowell, Powell, McGuire
WR Anderson, Enunwa, Kearse
TE Herndon
These are his starters this year:
RB Bell, Montgomery, McGuire, Powell
WR Anderson, Crowder, Enunwa
TE Herndon
That’s a huge upgrade at RB and a solid one at WR, and their TE should be much improved in year 2.
Yet somehow you think he could regress from his 16 game pace in 2018 of 3526 yards, 21 TDs, 18 Ints to as bad as 3300 yards, 22 TDs, and 18 Ints?
Cmon now, that is clearly not right and not thought out at all.
It seems exceedingly unlikely that Darnold will regress to your numbers this year with everything going his way and improving for him and his situation in such dramatic fashion this year compared to last.
1. Was the youngest QB in the NFL last season, which could account for some of his earlier season struggles.
2. Had the highest QBR in the month of December, strong finish to the season could be evidence of him "figuring things out" as he gained more experience.
3. Significant offseason upgrades could make life easier on him next season; and the Receiving core of Enunwa and Robbie Anderson is one of the most underrated in the NFL (they're not great, but they're both above average receivers)... if they can stay healthier this season this will be a much improved receiving core.
Cons:
1. QB progression isn't linear, while we should expect a big jump from year 1 to year 2, how much he improves and if he continues to improve will be a question mark.
2. Darnold's rep dating back from college was inconsistent play. Some games he looked amazing at USC, and other times he looked terrible. Is his strong finish to December just some for of variance? Or did he truly turn the corner? Odds are it's some combination of both. He certainly showed some horrific play in his rookie year to go with mesmerizing play. How much of that can we chalk up to rookie struggles remains to be seen.
3. Enunwa is a very good receiver.. but he has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. There's a good chance this receiving core will be Crowder/Robbie Anderson for long stretches of the season; which will impact Darnold's production.
4. He's learning his second offense in 2 years. That has not been a good sign for QB development-- especially ones as young as Darnold.
I think at this point his career could go either way; and he's priced closer to his floor in Dynasty. I'm buying, but not too many people are selling.