Why the 2021 Rookie Class might be the most valuable in Recent Dynasty History

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9526
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Why the 2021 Rookie Class might be the most valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:40 am

Disclaimer 1: This is very long

Disclaimer 2: This post may not be suited for dynasty owners who think in terms of Black/White, Yes/No, Bust/Not Bust. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having that mind frame - just noting that this is a post about a feasibility / possibility with no guarantees. I will note though that the harder it is for you as an owner to consider possibilities & perspectives that you disagree with, the more likely you are doing yourself a disservice and more likely to be surprised come rookie draft time & miss out on players who end up as league winners for other teams.

IE you might have been the owner that missed out on a Kamara or Metcalf because you focused too much on what could NOT be, rather than understanding that all players have limitations and the right situation, or scheme, as shown by Belichick and other savvy coaches, will negate that. The more you dig in and try to prove that Metcalfs 3-Cone time will make him a bust, or Kamaras situation will keep him from realizing any upside, the less time you have to explore potential and understand where these players could become fantasy studs.

Disclaimer 3: This is more for leagues with premiums, than a typical 1 QB League with 24 man 8 starter format. By premium it could be SF, 14+ owners but only 1 copy, TE Premium, PPC, and so forth. However these leagues are becoming more & more common and SF/TE Prem scoring leagues are now for example the norm for many DLF Safe Leagues.

Disclaimer 4: There will be little to no mention of an individuals talent as this is subjective. I am going to focus on the objective possibility of upside rather than whether Player A is more talented than Player B. So if you disagree with the amount of players who I am projecting as having upside, that is your prerogative. However if you find yourself thinking Bust/No/Impossible, then perhaps Disclaimer 1 is for your benefit.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


As we all know, there are 4 popular offensive skill positions (excluding Kicker - which while many would disagree remains imho a skill).

QB
RB
TE
WR

The depth and volume of potential quality players at the various 4 OS positions is what makes the 2021 class possibly the most valuable class in recent memory. While other classes may have had more depth at 1-2 positions, or more Stud aka Blue Chip Assets at the more popular RB/WR positions, this class, at least imho, has a rare combination of both depth & BCA potential at all the 4 skill position.

Let us review each position.

Running Back:

First let us deal with one concern many may have. The age of the top RBs. Does it matter? No.

Why not? Because as seen constantly, consensus valuation is driven by perception, and perception is constantly changing. Ergo despite many peoples claims that they look at value long term, many owners (lets pretend this percentage is 40%) are only able to see the current situation and make their values based on that situation. A year later when that situation has completely altered, so has their value of said player(s). Therefore this volume of owners, especially when their impact on mock drafts, trade markets & rookie draft adp is included suggests that consensus dynasty valuations is more of a short term perspective (1-2 years) than a longer term one (3-5).

This does not even include those that are redraft/current production focused. Furthermore other owners are only interest in the RBs best chances at production - which for many is their initial rookie contract. 3-4 years down the road many of these RBs are going to be devalued regardless of their age. You can already see this effect on RBs like Elliott, Henry, Chubb in ADP and/or trade markets.

Therefore it does not matter if an RB is going to be 21, 22, 23, or 24 going into the NFL because at the end of their rookie contract they are pre-destined to be devalued by so many owners, their value will like mostly in their future production for your team rather than what they can get you on the trade market.

So excluding age of the RBs from determination I would suggest that there are at least 15 RBs in the 2021 class that have the potential of at least an RB2 floor. And 4-7 who have RB1 upside depending on their initial situation. How many will actually reach this goal? Who knows. All we need to know is that the upside of the BCAs may rival the 2020 Class (which also had 5 RBs considered RB1 potential in Swift, Akers, CEH, Taylor & Dobbins) & depth of the class definitely rivals that of 2017/18 classes.

As such it would not be surprising to see an RB1 season from an RB drafted early, one drafted at the late 1st, and another in the mid/late 2nd.


Quarterback:

Even without a certain 1.01, this class has the potential to match other past classes, if solely on volume of QBs taken in the first 2 rounds. Most will focus on 1st round draft picks, but as seen with Carr, Dalton, Hurts, Garoppolo and to a lesser extent Kizer, Lock, Osweiler & Kapernick, Quarterbacks taken in the 2nd round at least get a window of starter viability, if not a sustained window of franchise starter possibility.

The NFL is starting to show it is able to adapt its schemes to allow QBs to succeed (from a production standpoint) from the get-go. As such there is less of a need to focus on Pro-Ready QBs and consider the upside of QBs whose skills & potential may allow to be tapped from the start, rather than having to wait til they acclimate to a NFL style WCO system. Hurts & Hill are by no means developed Passers but the schemes they are in still allow for the potential for QB1 production. There are also QBs who, with 1-2-3 years of development, could also be viable QBs.

This year it would not be a surprise to see 5-6 QBs taken in the 1st round and 3-4 others who could be gone by the end of Round 2. Will we see 10 QBs taken by Round 3? Maybe not, but do not be surprised by 8.

And do not forget, as infrequent as it happens, later round QBs like Prescott & Cousins can happen. Fitzpatrick was once a 7th round QB - but is now the poster boy for (not just beards) QBs who have stuck around long enough that they can become journeyman starters and constantly get opportunities.

Whether or not you think this player has talent is actually immaterial tbh. All that matters is that the NFL sees a baseline of talent, and potential to be developed, and the volume of this class could have, as already seen by the off-season, major repurcussions going forward.

But apart from a Luck, we could see a Mahomes, a Watson, a Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins and a Matty Ice comp talent all from the 2021 class. Plus the unexpected like a Minshew, a Prescott and a R. Wilson,


Tight End:

The last class with this much depth & upside was likely the 2017 class. Although it is entirely possible that at least one TE in the 2021 class has more upside & a safer floor than anyone in that class had. Personally I thought, and still think that the 2020 TE class was underrated, but the 2021 class might still be underrated, as hyped as it is becoming.

Apart from 1 BCA, there are likely 7-12 other TEs with TE1 potential (ie they can have a minimum of 1 TE1 season). Whether their floor will allow them the time to reach said potential is yet to be seen, but the potential of this class rivals the 2017 class at the very least. Which means do not be surprised if a TE you ignored in favor of one of the top 3-5 TEs turns out to be the next Kittle. Basically do not be surprised if this rivals 2017 in terms of top end production, while comparing to 2018/19 in terms of draft pedigree (basically 5-8 TEs with Day 1/2 selections).

If you are in a TE premium scoring, or a 2 TE start league, this draft, apart from having a TE gone by 1.03 will likely see 4-5 TEs gone by the time Round 3. If you're in a SF/TE league or a 1 QB league where WR/RB are loved, these guys could fall into the 4th.


Wide Receiver:

This could be the greatest WR class seen ever.

Will it be? Possibly not.

But it has the potential to have 40-50 WRs drafted (2020 saw 37 WRs drafted).

Both in depth, upside & BCA the 2021 class rivals all the recent classes. You want a bonafide WR1? 2021 has that potential. You want a safe floor WR2, you got it. You want a WR with DK Metcalf or Will Fuller Boom? You got it. This WR class has every imaginable skilled WR you could be looking for. Big bodied alpha WR1, phone booth quickness, super speedy Tyreek Hill types, etc.

In the end landing spots will be key. Not due to the talent of the class - but because there is already so much talent, that injuries and situations & qb chemistry will be vital in understanding who will be the next Justin Jefferson & Michael Thomas vs. who ends up merely having a Amari Cooper or Robert Woods career.


Conclusion: 2021 not 2020 may in hindsight years from now be the rookie draft most owners should have been targeting when trying to get a volume of rookie picks. Whether or not this comes to fruition, there are no guarantees in life. Even coin flip 50/50 propositions, as most familiar with either coin flip logistics or mathematical probabilities are aware are not truly 50/50. There are unknown and unseen variables going forward that will cause unexpected ripples that no one can foresee (just like no one foresaw the Ever Green blocking the Suez Canal for a week). However despite the constant change that is the NFL landscape, especially dealing with the aftermath of a pandemic, the volume of skilled players in 2021 at all the offensive skill positions gives a favorable potential outcome to any owner that has stocked up or bet on the 2021 Rookie class.

Projection:

4 QBs with at least 1 QB 1 season, 6-7 with at least 1 QB 2 Season
3 WRs with at least 1 WR 1 Season, 12 WRs with at least 1 WR 2 season, 24 WRs with at least 1 WR 3 season
8 RBs with at least 1 RB 1 season, 20 RBs with at least 1 RB 3 Season
5 TEs with at least 1 TE 1 Season, 2 TEs with at least 1 Top 3 Season

Lets review in 10 years and see. :)

In other words not saying all of those projected seasons will occur in 2021 or 2022 but over the course of time. The depth & talent of the 2021 class is there for you to see. Only history will show how much of it will come to fruition.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

Lumps
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3380
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:25 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Lumps » Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:16 pm

Well written and excellent use of humor in spots. Well done.
Image

Sriracha
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3698
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Sriracha » Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:24 pm

This class has extreme upside... and downside.

A lot of the premier players look reallllly good if you squint and look past some major red flags.

Outside of QBs, Chase and possibly ETN and Pitts I'm personally going to be fading all of my rookie picks; My confidence level in projecting these rookies is much much lower than the 2020 class.

Najee Harris, Devonta Smith choosing to not test really hurt my confidence in projecting them. Javonte running a pro day adjusted 4.63 cooled me off of his upside.

This a decent class and there will be some solid players emerge... but their current ADPs don't match their risk profiles IMO.

Online
Jigga94
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 16060
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:38 pm

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Jigga94 » Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:18 pm

This class could be huge, but I'm not betting on it. It hinges on the QB though and I could see a handful from this class succeeding. If most of these QB live up to the hype, the class will be strong regardless.

I have doubts the RB come close to last year... The WR depth seems lacking in comparison to last 2 drafts and has its work cut out for it. If Pitts as all that, then great but there still will be weaknesses compared to the last few drafts

Great write-up

User avatar
Shoreline Steamers
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4679
Joined: Wed May 16, 2012 4:07 pm

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:34 pm

Welcome back ArrylT!

I enjoyed your post, and actually have adjusted my thinking on this class over the last couple months. At first, I was really set on moving up from 1.05 to make sure I got a player I coveted.

Now however, I believe I am going to hold my 1.05 and 1.12 picks for "Team 1" to use them both. I agree that there are a number of players worth taking a chance on in 2021, and since I'm not likely to be looking at a QB (while other teams in my league most certainly will be!) some of the players I like will probably fall and be available to me late in the 1st round.

Time to shed some dead weight on the roster, and infuse a bit more upside youth to the team. I like this class to get that done. As you say, there are no guarantees. But when rostering players who've shown us what they are (Sammy Watkins, Josh Reynolds, Justin Jackson, etc...) at some point you need to rip off the band-aid, move on, and take chances on players who could possibly deliver more upside. Or stay mired in mediocrity.

Personally, if I'm not coming in 1st, I'd rather be last. The middle is no place to be in dynasty.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, B. Purdy, T. Lance
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, A. Dillon, J. Cook, K. Mitchell, J. McLaughlin, Z. Evans
WR: J. Chase, C. Godwin, D. Johnson, J. Reed, C. Tillman
TE: TJ Hockenson, D. Njoku, B. Jordan

14 Team, .5 PPR, 18 Man Roster, Rush/Rec TD = 6, Pass TD = 4, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, T. Tagovailoa
RB: B. Robinson, K. Walker, R. Stevenson, K. Herbertl
WR: C. Olave, T. Higgins, B. Aiyuk, N. Collins, Z. Flowers, M. Mims
TE: K. Pitts, D. Njoku

Patsfan86
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1877
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:28 am

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Patsfan86 » Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:44 pm

Totally agree and its part of the reason i traded down from my 1.03 to get more firsts in this class. A combo of Lawrence, Kenneth Gainwell and Bateman for example has a TON of upside, and i prefer taking a shot on that upside more so than taking a shot on one of the more "safe" players in Jamar Chase who i was targeting with the 1.03

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9526
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:45 pm

I have decided I will make 2 additional posts. My first post addressed the potential of the class. The next 2 posts will address, at least what I think, the floor/worst case likelyhood of the 2021 class and the most likely middle ground. They will come when I have time. :lol:

I will state that there is absolutely no problem with having doubts. Doubt is a good thing as is scepticism. To me there is a big difference between being sceptical and waiting for evidence, and being adamant and close-minded. Doubt leaves room for admitting you are / were wrong and allowing for adjustment. So if you are unsure about the potential of the 2021 class, that is not the same as thinking that the 2021 class is garbage. :thumbup: :thumbup:

To me the key words are might/maybe, upside, potential, projection & possibility. Understanding these terms are key. Like I said, if you are someone (and I am not saying anyone who has posted is) who is more of an absolutist and goes by Yes/No, Black/White then my discussion of potential outcomes using rose colour perspective is not going to be your cup of tea.

The point that is meant to come across is that there is a lot of talent in this class and it is spread throughout the 4 skill positions & in various styles of play. In other words there is a lot of flavour and variety to this class. If you own rookie picks in this class and feel at least halfway adequate with your rookie selection history then you should be feeling optimistic that a few years from now you'll have had a good draft. Much like the 2019 class is slowly but surely showing it was not as weak as originally perceived.

But just to be clear I am not saying that my projections are guarantees. Rather they are optimistic outcomes projected on what could play out in the NFL Draft & going forward. I will, as we all, will have to re-assess once we know what the NFL tells us. But more on that in the worst case post. However the context of the NFL Draft will be vital in our understanding exactly how we perceive the potential of the 2021 class.

Nonetheless, I do not think my optimism re: the 2021 class is much misplaced - but that does not mean that everything will come up Roses. Rather some could come up Rosen instead. :mrgreen: So stay tuned.

Other than that thanks for reading, and thank you for any contributions, feedback & / constructive criticism you have shared.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
Orenthal Shames
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6636
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:13 pm

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:54 pm

I'm with Sriracha, I'm more inclined to fade the vast majority of this class than go all in.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

Patsfan86
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1877
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:28 am

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Patsfan86 » Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:56 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:54 pm I'm with Sriracha, I'm more inclined to fade the vast majority of this class than go all in.
Hard question to answer but had Covid not happened do you think you would have felt the same? I only ask this because it was a weird year and in order to evaluate these guys properly we have to think about them in a Non Covid world. I feel like this class is being looked at like it is because Covid has just made it all so murky, its not being looked at fairly.

User avatar
Orenthal Shames
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6636
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:13 pm

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:16 am

Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:56 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:54 pm I'm with Sriracha, I'm more inclined to fade the vast majority of this class than go all in.
Hard question to answer but had Covid not happened do you think you would have felt the same? I only ask this because it was a weird year and in order to evaluate these guys properly we have to think about them in a Non Covid world. I feel like this class is being looked at like it is because Covid has just made it all so murky, its not being looked at fairly.
If anything I'd imagine the opposite, being that everyone is running 4.3's magically this year.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

Online
Bronco Billy
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3732
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:12 am

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:44 am

Orenthal Shames wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:16 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:56 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:54 pm I'm with Sriracha, I'm more inclined to fade the vast majority of this class than go all in.
Hard question to answer but had Covid not happened do you think you would have felt the same? I only ask this because it was a weird year and in order to evaluate these guys properly we have to think about them in a Non Covid world. I feel like this class is being looked at like it is because Covid has just made it all so murky, its not being looked at fairly.
If anything I'd imagine the opposite, being that everyone is running 4.3's magically this year.
40 times have very little value anyhow. The overwhelming majority of plays have nothing to due with an unimpeded sprint straight down the field, and none of them have those conditions with no protective gear on in optimal conditions.

Game speed can easily be determined in game film. There’s way more to playing in the NFL than the few metrics gleaned from the combine and pro days. IMO that data really only has value to determine red flags on guys who just aren’t athletic enough or have sufficient physical traits to have a reasonable chance to compete at the next level. After that, it’s all about the eye test and which guys have the football IQ and skills to allow those physical traits and athleticism to translate to the NFL.

failblazer
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1836
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2013 3:19 pm

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby failblazer » Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:45 am

I do think this class has a lot of value that can be mined and I think rebuilding teams with lots of picks are primed to do well. That all being said, I think the depth of the class is maybe not as strong as you seem to think it is. It is absolutely a deep class at QB and WR and I think owners would be wise to take advantage and stock up on those positions as talent is forced down draft boards. I do think the RB and TE classes are far shallower. There will likely be a RB to emerge behind the top three and become relevant but to say 15 guys have RB2 floors seems to be massively overshooting the mark. Same goes for tight end. Admittedly that is notorious as the position hardest to find guys at and to effectively target rookies at. I don't see a great deal of special talent in this class behind Pitts.

One thing I will say is that I expect this class to have a few more "how the heck did we miss this guy" types. There were a lot of players who opted out of 2020 or had shortened seasons etc. These players, with another year of development and film to their names may have been easier to project and in 3-4 years time we may have a handful of James Robinson or Terry McLaurin types. That's where drafting in volume in this draft may help rebuilding squads. Being able to cast a wide net in a deep WR class to try and catch the guys who fall through the cracks.
16 Team PPR (11th Year Dynasty - Former 2 Time Champion)
P. Mahomes, Z. Wilson
C. McCaffrey, N. Harris, C. Hubbard
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, D. Johnson, G. Davis, D. Mims, J. Palmer
D. Waller, C. Kmet, B. Jordan

C. Young, R. Quinn
D. Leonard, M. Milano, C. Mosely, B. Okereke, J. Davis
J. Simmons, J. Fuller

Picks - 1.01, 2.12, 3.01, 3.15, 4.14

16 Team PPR (10th Year Dynasty - Reigning 5 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, J. Fields
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Dobbins, M. Davis
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Green, T. Johnson, Dy. Brown, G. Pickens, J. Tolbert,
N. Fant, A. Okwugbunam, J. Harris
J. Elliott

D. Lawrence, R. Quinn, T. Hendrickson
R. Smith, B. Okereke, L. Wilson, J. Davis, D. Tranquil, B. Asamoah
J. Simmons, W. Harris

Sriracha
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3698
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Sriracha » Sat Apr 03, 2021 12:08 pm

Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:56 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:54 pm I'm with Sriracha, I'm more inclined to fade the vast majority of this class than go all in.
Hard question to answer but had Covid not happened do you think you would have felt the same? I only ask this because it was a weird year and in order to evaluate these guys properly we have to think about them in a Non Covid world. I feel like this class is being looked at like it is because Covid has just made it all so murky, its not being looked at fairly.
Definitely, COVID diluting an entire season of production is part of the reason I have less certainty in this year's player evaluations.

Then there's the lack of a combine and a lot of the premier players disappointing with measurements.

Chase came in at 200lbs, Bateman came in 2" shorter than expected and 20lbs lighter, Rondale Moore came in at 5'7 pushing him into outlier territory, Najee Harris, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonta Smith won't even test.. and Devonta won't even step on a scale... Javonte comes in 8lbs lighter and runs a pro adjusted 4.63 forty.

Then you have guys like Terrace Marshall and Jaylen Waddle that finally get their chance to play.. and they explode.. but it was only for 7 games (Terrace) and only 4 games (Jaylen). That's definitely a good sign, but you have to have less confidence with them than if they did it for a full season of play

None of this means that these players won't be the studs we expect them to be. And There are certainly reasons to expect these to not matter, at all... If you squint and look past these issues, this is a fantastic class... but I don't feel like any of these guys are locks to live up to their current expectations.

Online
Bronco Billy
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3732
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:12 am

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:06 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:54 pm I'm with Sriracha, I'm more inclined to fade the vast majority of this class than go all in.
I guess I’m just a neanderthal incapable of exploring anything other than binary outcomes, because I’m with you guys. The depth at TE looks very poor, other than maybe 3 RBs the rest look to me like they fit part of a RBBC more than a 3 down or 1a back, and too many of the top WRs are just damned small or damned slight. I do think the QBs could shake out as above average to potentially one of the 3 best classes since the draft went to 8 rounds.

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9526
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:13 pm

failblazer wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:45 am I do think this class has a lot of value that can be mined and I think rebuilding teams with lots of picks are primed to do well. That all being said, I think the depth of the class is maybe not as strong as you seem to think it is. It is absolutely a deep class at QB and WR and I think owners would be wise to take advantage and stock up on those positions as talent is forced down draft boards. I do think the RB and TE classes are far shallower. There will likely be a RB to emerge behind the top three and become relevant but to say 15 guys have RB2 floors seems to be massively overshooting the mark. Same goes for tight end. Admittedly that is notorious as the position hardest to find guys at and to effectively target rookies at. I don't see a great deal of special talent in this class behind Pitts.

One thing I will say is that I expect this class to have a few more "how the heck did we miss this guy" types. There were a lot of players who opted out of 2020 or had shortened seasons etc. These players, with another year of development and film to their names may have been easier to project and in 3-4 years time we may have a handful of James Robinson or Terry McLaurin types. That's where drafting in volume in this draft may help rebuilding squads. Being able to cast a wide net in a deep WR class to try and catch the guys who fall through the cracks.
Potential to have an RB2 floor yes.

I think in part you may understand what I am getting at by the "how the heck did we miss this guy" comment. There are a lot of players in this years class that at first glance many people are going to be like "Nah". What I am suggesting is that "Maybe" not "Nah" should be an owners modus operandi with this class. Because yes, several years from now, just like with the players you mentioned, many'll be like wow I did not see that coming. But you could have. My post is not a clickbait making guarantees. My post is a headsup that this class has a lot of potential.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot], Bronco Billy, Jigga94 and 28 guests