Why the 2021 Rookie Class might be the most valuable in Recent Dynasty History

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:28 pm

The QB class is most comparable to 2018’s QB class.

The RB class is most comparable to 2019’s RB class.

The WR class is comparable to 2015’s WR class.

The TE class... isn’t really comparable to any other. 2006 I guess is the closest, if only because Vernon Davis was such an amazing prospect, although Lewis was much more highly regarded then Freiermuth.

I think this is an average class in SuperFlex formats, but the RB class is bad and the WR class is deeper than it is good.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Sriracha » Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:43 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:28 pm The QB class is most comparable to 2018’s QB class.

The RB class is most comparable to 2019’s RB class.

The WR class is comparable to 2015’s WR class.

The TE class... isn’t really comparable to any other. 2006 I guess is the closest, if only because Vernon Davis was such an amazing prospect, although Lewis was much more highly regarded then Freiermuth.

I think this is an average class in SuperFlex formats, but the RB class is bad and the WR class is deeper than it is good.
IMO this QB class is special -- better than 2018; 5 projected top 12 selections + 3 QBs projected to go in the 2nd - 3rd round would be the most QBs selected in the top 12 and the most QBs selected in the top 50 and top 100 picks of all time.

We'll see how much of the hype is smoke and mirrors, but I'm buying in.

RB Class is better than 2019.... but not much better.

Similarly to how the 2015 class followed the historically good 2014 WR class; this one follows what looks like a great 2020 class... but I believe these receivers have a higher floor. Kevin White was an atrocious analytical prospect, as was Breshad Perriman. Philip Dorsett was ok. I give this class a lot more credit than that, personally.. even if some of these receivers scare the bejesus out of me.

TE is such a crapshoot it's pretty pointless to find a comparison. :lol:

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:09 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:43 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:28 pm The QB class is most comparable to 2018’s QB class.

The RB class is most comparable to 2019’s RB class.

The WR class is comparable to 2015’s WR class.

The TE class... isn’t really comparable to any other. 2006 I guess is the closest, if only because Vernon Davis was such an amazing prospect, although Lewis was much more highly regarded then Freiermuth.

I think this is an average class in SuperFlex formats, but the RB class is bad and the WR class is deeper than it is good.
IMO this QB class is special -- better than 2018; 5 projected top 12 selections + 3 QBs projected to go in the 2nd - 3rd round would be the most QBs selected in the top 12 and the most QBs selected in the top 50 and top 100 picks of all time.

We'll see how much of the hype is smoke and mirrors, but I'm buying in.

RB Class is better than 2019.... but not much better.

Similarly to how the 2015 class followed the historically good 2014 WR class; this one follows what looks like a great 2020 class... but I believe these receivers have a higher floor. Kevin White was an atrocious analytical prospect, as was Breshad Perriman. Philip Dorsett was ok. I give this class a lot more credit than that, personally.. even if some of these receivers scare the bejesus out of me.

TE is such a crapshoot it's pretty pointless to find a comparison. :lol:
Yeah the QB class is probably better, if only because Lawrence is a better prospect than Mayfield, but I still think it’s close.

Kevin White and Devante Parker aren’t that different from Waddle and Smith (Waddle is a different player, and I like him more than I liked White, but still). Is Perriman a worse prospect than Kadarius Toney?

It’s a weird WR class. 2015 isn’t a perfect comparison, but I think it’s a closer comp than any class in recent history.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:14 pm

In my first post, and the central theme of this thread - is the notion that the 2021 Class has a lot of potential. Furthermore we are looking at the class as a whole and not at individuals.

Whether or not that potential ever gets realized, only time will show. Every single year lots of potential gets left on the sideline, due to injuries, off-field issues, coaching changes, bad luck and or other factors we could not fully anticipate.

However nonetheless as important as it is to keep an open mind and see the possibilities, at the same time it is also a good idea to consider insurance and what if everything goes wrong. There is a reason rookie picks are called lottery tickets. Because sometimes it is a smart idea to hedge your bets. You have $20. You spend $5 on tickets, and you put $15 in your savings account. Once in a while you score $50. Sometimes those lottery tickets earn you $10, more frequently you get your $5 back and well the rest nets you nothing. But either way you still have $15.

So let us look at the 2021 class from a different perspective. That of the worst case scenario*

Again we will approach each position

Running Back:

Part of the problem is perspective. IMO every year there is an actual glut of RBs who have a baseline of talent necessary to earn a shot at playing in the NFL. In other words the issue is not that there are not enough good RBs, but that there are too many, due in part to the different skills & roles . The NFL is getting better at allowing players who are really good at 1-2 things shine, even if they are subpar at other aspects of the RB position. Many of us refer to this as Just Another Guy or JAGs. Because their level of skill is deemed replaceable. That does not make it less noteworthy. But if this was baseball and you could find 100 guys who could hit .280, then you're not too worried about passing on 90 of them and focusing on the 10 you think will hit .285 and steal 20 bases. Context is key. Being 1 in 1000 is nice until you realize that if there are 1 000 000 then there are 999 just like you.

So while the 2021 class has, even more than most classes, an overload of RBs with a baseline of talent to fit into NFL schemes and be productive, predicting & figuring out which ones are locks, is much harder to determine.

Even with the 'safe' backs, it is going to be hard to estimate safely. Every year there are teams that we think are screaming for an RB to come in, and every year some of these teams decide, because of the glut of JAGs, that they will pass on the guy with the upside to hit .333 because the guy who hits .275 is sufficient for their needs.

Quarterback:

While the NFL is becoming more adept at using schemes and languages that newly drafted QBs can understand faster, that does not mean all of the teams do this. Do you build the hole around the square peg, or do you find the peg that you think is best shaped for your triangular offence? Either way, teams are still going to be interested in guys who can start immediately.

Unfortunately, the NCAA is not a place where football players go to learn their craft, but rather where they hope they can be seen and make it into the professional league. It is a business designed to make those in the system rich & entertain those on TV. For example 10 NCAA executives can make about the same as it costs to run a program. But that is not the point I am trying to make, just that just like you do not work at McDonalds to learn how to become a chef at a high class restaurant, a player going to College isnt going there to learn the nuances of the QB position**.

Many owners fail to realize this. In part because much of the Talk Sports media fail to pay attention to this. Because as talented as many QBs are, the ability to process football games at a high speed remains a very rare talent, and one that is not easily developed without time & effort. Furthermore since NFL coaches care more about wins than developing and sustaining a QB with long term results, we are also still seeing many QBs bounce from team to team. Every 1st Round QB from 2009-2016 switched teams. Plus Trubisky, Rosen and potentially Darnold now. Tua already?

If you try 20 different cars and none of them work? Is it truly the car at fault? Or perhaps just perhaps you're not going about choosing your car the right way. But you try getting middle aged men to change their perspectives. I'll wait.

Oh you didnt have 6 years? Yeah me either.

Tight End:

You know how there is a lot of talk about frame & durability for RB & WRs? Maybe there should be also in discussion for TEs as well. Because there are an awful lot of TE injuries, and I do not think they can all be accounted for because of blocking. If you can be under-sized at one position, well the same should be true at another?

The 2021 class might be the breaking point for owners looking at TEs who are gifted at catching the ball, but just do not have the frame or the physicality to handle the TE position in the NFL. They could get by in College because being 1 in 1000 is a lot easier when there are 2 000 colleges. But with only 32 teams taking the best of the best at every position ...

Another focal point? Irv Smith.

Wide Receiver:

Honestly I am not really worried that much about the WR position. As I mentioned previously, this class enough good WRs for any scheme and type you're looking for, that enough should get through. Pardon the imagery, but think of it like a condom. 99% effective. That means you're still getting a 1% chance. Well what if we're talking 80% effective. And WRs instead and there are 50 of them knocking at your door?

Exactly. You're still going to get 10 WRs who have fantasy relevant seasons eventually.

Who, when where and how? Still to be determined though.

But regardless, worst case scenario, if you're a contender and you need WR depth, or you're a rebuilding and you need a couple of home run shots after you take the safest BPA, this class has you covered.

WCS Projection*:

1 QBs with at least 1 QB 1 season, 1-2 with at least 1 QB 2 Season
1 WRs with at least 1 WR 1 Season, 3-4 WRs with at least 1 WR 2 season, 6-7 WRs with at least 1 WR 3 season
0 RBs with at least 1 RB 1 season, 3-4 RBs with at least 1 RB 2 Season, 4-6 RBs with at least 1 RB 3 Season
1 TEs with at least 1 TE 1 Season, 2-3 TEs with at least 1 TE 2 Season


* - Within reason. A worst case scenario in life might be your house burning down. It is not that your house gets invaded by talking unicorns wearing spandex tights and smoking cigars. As such there is no point in saying something like every player in the 2021 class will bust - because that is so improbable as to be impossible.

** - Instead that is why there is a growing business of Private coaches. https://athleteconnectapp.com/private-f ... dvantages/
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:58 am

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Sriracha » Sun Apr 04, 2021 1:34 pm

I agree there will likely be a decent amount of quality WRs emerge from this class; but part of the reason many people were hyped about the 2020 class was that we had a massive tier of guys that were easy to identify as possible breakout candidates; the list we have in 2021 is both much shorter and has more landmines we have to navigate.

If the guys that pop from this class aren't the ones we expected then what would be the point of selling out for this class in the same way that many people did for the 2020 class? I do believe this is a quality class (outside of RBs); I just feel like the uncertainty around each individual prospect drives down the value of each individual pick.

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Ice » Sun Apr 04, 2021 4:59 pm

Agree the Draft Class has a lot of potential.

The reality is it will take a couple of years to really know if the potential turns into production.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby failblazer » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:02 am

Ice wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 4:59 pm Agree the Draft Class has a lot of potential.

The reality is it will take a couple of years to really know if the potential turns into production.
It definitely has potential. It is a great year to be drafting in volume as a lot of talented players will be available late 1st round, all through the 2nd and into the 3rd. The issue, as I see it at least, is that we have an incomplete picture of many of these rookies so it is harder than in any year I can remember to be really confident on any particular player.
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P. Mahomes, Z. Wilson
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C. Young, R. Quinn
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D. Lawrence, R. Quinn, T. Hendrickson
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby mild » Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:01 am

Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:44 pm Totally agree and its part of the reason i traded down from my 1.03 to get more firsts in this class. A combo of Lawrence, Kenneth Gainwell and Bateman for example has a TON of upside, and i prefer taking a shot on that upside more so than taking a shot on one of the more "safe" players in Jamar Chase who i was targeting with the 1.03
Congrats on playing yourself :lol:

I want to draft Jamarr Chase soooo bad. He's going to be special.

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:40 am

mild wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:01 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:44 pm Totally agree and its part of the reason i traded down from my 1.03 to get more firsts in this class. A combo of Lawrence, Kenneth Gainwell and Bateman for example has a TON of upside, and i prefer taking a shot on that upside more so than taking a shot on one of the more "safe" players in Jamar Chase who i was targeting with the 1.03
Congrats on playing yourself :lol:

I want to draft Jamarr Chase soooo bad. He's going to be special.
He’s somewhere between Odell Beckham and DJ Moore. Just a beast.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Patsfan86 » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:11 pm

mild wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:01 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:44 pm Totally agree and its part of the reason i traded down from my 1.03 to get more firsts in this class. A combo of Lawrence, Kenneth Gainwell and Bateman for example has a TON of upside, and i prefer taking a shot on that upside more so than taking a shot on one of the more "safe" players in Jamar Chase who i was targeting with the 1.03
Congrats on playing yourself :lol:

I want to draft Jamarr Chase soooo bad. He's going to be special.
This may be true but im ok at Wr. Just working on strong depth now and i think the 1.7,1.08, 1.09 this year will give me that.

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:35 pm

Patsfan86 wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:11 pm
mild wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:01 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:44 pm Totally agree and its part of the reason i traded down from my 1.03 to get more firsts in this class. A combo of Lawrence, Kenneth Gainwell and Bateman for example has a TON of upside, and i prefer taking a shot on that upside more so than taking a shot on one of the more "safe" players in Jamar Chase who i was targeting with the 1.03
Congrats on playing yourself :lol:

I want to draft Jamarr Chase soooo bad. He's going to be special.
This may be true but im ok at Wr. Just working on strong depth now and i think the 1.7,1.08, 1.09 this year will give me that.
I think that’s the big problem with this class outside of SF. WR is so saturated right now. How many of you are looking at a team like “yeah, I just need Jaylen Waddle and this is a championship roster?”
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:20 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:35 pm
I think that’s the big problem with this class outside of SF. WR is so saturated right now. How many of you are looking at a team like “yeah, I just need Jaylen Waddle and this is a championship roster?”
Maybe that acquisition is part of the process, and not the end-game. Not every owner is set on competing in 2021. Agreed WR is saturated, I alluded to that earlier. But there are plenty of players available in the 1st-round who can be difference makers for a team. Maybe it doesn't al come together in 2021, and maybe that wasn't the intention in the first place.

My Team 1. I don't plan to compete this year. The only way I could is if Chubb/Mixon both stay healthy and play every game, and Aaron Jones gets injured allowing Dillon to see a lot of work. Those scenarios aren't likely, so it's time to shed some mediocre talent I've got, and reload with some youngsters.

After I make a couple more 1st round picks in 2022, and the 2021 class has a year under their belts perhaps I'll be ready to work for a championship.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:39 am

In my first post, and the central theme of this thread - is the notion that the 2021 Class has a lot of potential, and what could happen if everything went the way it could. Furthermore we are looking at the class as a whole and not at individuals. In my second post, we changed directions, or flipped the coin as you might say, and looked at the 2021 class, again as a whole, from the perspective of what happens if everything crashes and burns.

There is a reason why hindsight is 20/20.

Firstly because upon reflection, we can re-examine clues & see the full picture that was hidden before. Or more likely because it allows many to say "See I was right". Which is why many like to say "even a broken clock is right twice a day" since if you keep making bold stances, at some point, even if it is 2 out of 24, you'll have a history of remarks to point at as your history of being correct.

I am going to try to avoid that. Firstly because while I am very comfortable in believing that this 2021 class has a lot of potential, and plenty of upside, I am also aware that I do not know everything, and there are unseen factors yet to occur. Further, I feel that just because something did happen, does not mean something else could not have. Sometimes this is obvious, and sometimes it is not.

Take Dak Prescott 2020. It seems pretty obvious that he was on pace for a top 3-4 QB season when the injury occurred. So we'll never actually know for sure. Now apply the same to Josh Doctson, Kevin White, David Wilson, Tyler Eifert or any other offensive skilled player you had many hopes for, but whose career was derailed by injuries.

Talking about Josh Doctson for a moment, this is an example of where you can be right in hindsight. There were injuries in college (2015) and then 2016 that gave us clues that perhaps Doctson simply was not built to handle the rigours of the NFL game. Does this make him a bust? Not in terms of talent, but sure in terms of cost acquisition, assuming you drafted him top 5 in 2016.

What am I leading up to?

Simply that we do not know what is in store for the 2021 class yet. As some posters have mentioned, a lot of these players have an incomplete "grade" on them. That does not take away from their potential or upside, but it does make it harder to figure out where/how they best fit into the picture.

As an owner you're probably going to have to follow your "gut" more this year than many years. Which to me is a good thing, provided you're comfortable doing your own thing, rather than following consensus. Because this year could see more consensus Hakeem Butler 1.01 (if briefly) type recommendations.

If that means you're not sold on the 2021 class, that is perfectly fine.

Huh? Didnt you say in your disclaimer not to be anti 2021? No I did not. What I said was basically two-fold

(a) Have doubt
(b) keep an open mind

So if you doubt that the 2021 class is going to do anything for you, that is perfectly fine. So long as you do not go overboard and make decisions to keep digging yourself in deeper. I mean if someone offers you Amari Cooper for your 1.09 in a 1 QB ppr, I think you would be ready to run to the podium. However if you are so adamant against the 2021 class that you sell your 1.09 for Jared Cook or NyHeim Hines or JD McKisic or Russell Gage because they had a TE1/RB2/WR3 season in 2020 (the names are examples solely to illustrate a point).

Basically do not let your decision making led you into bad processes is what I am saying. In any direction. So don't trade CMC for a 2021 2nd either because you see a guy fall that you think is CMC & Barkley combined. :lol:

Be you yes. But not to the extent that you refuse to allow for the chance that you're wrong and the 2021 class can have its rewards.

Anyways I see no reason to dive into each segment of the 2021 class from a middle of the road perspective - because like most of us already know, there is just too much to play out. While long term talent can win out over situation, many players do not have a depth of talent to allow them to flourish anywhere. IE there is no need for a skilled slot receiver on a team that already has 2-3 capable guys. So if they draft for depth that is great for their team, but not so much for fantasy purposes.

Btw that saying, at least imho, is meant to remind an owner to decide on a case by case basis, rather than to use as a general rule of thumb. It is a reminder to have doubt. Is this a case of talent being able to overcome or benefit from situation, or is it a case of situation masking lack of talent or burying misused talent?

But here is my optimistic projection of what could happen, not from a everything is sunny in philly perspective, but not also a Houston Texans are a complete mess outlook either, but more of a Oakland Raiders things are underrated perspective. :)

Again this is without knowing the landing spots, attrition rate, injuries &/or surprises from other classes. So do I know if this is going to happen? Nope not at all. But I feel confident that it could. In fact I would not be surprised if it ends up being closer to my rose coloured glasses pie in the sky projection from my opening post. There is enough volume of talent in this class, that it will keep knocking at the door long after you've considering going to bed. :mrgreen:

Projection:

2 QBs with at least 1 QB 1 season, 4-5 with at least 1 QB 2 Season
2 WRs with at least 1 WR 1 Season, 5-6 WRs with at least 1 WR 2 season, 10-12 WRs with at least 1 WR 3 season
3 RBs with at least 1 RB 1 season, 8-10 RBs with at least 1 RB 3 Season
4 TEs with at least 1 TE 1 Season, 1-2 TEs with at least 1 Top 3 Season

And like I said above lets review in 10 years and see. :) Actually we can revisit yearly and see the progress.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Krypto_King » Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:36 pm

I don't really understand OP. Without putting names to those claims you could say that about any class. That said, if 2 years from now this class has produced the ADP QB1, WR1, TE1 and a top 10 RB or 2, I wouldn't be surprised at all.


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